Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[onlooker]

13 minutes ago, Goat said:

Falklands "war"; first Gulf war, six day war, Anglo-Zanzibar war.

I'd be surprised if it goes beyond next spring.

Almost certainly the war will end when either:

1} Putin dies or is overthrown

2) Russia runs out of willing and unwilling manpower

or

3) Russia runs out of missiles

I suspect 2) is the most likely scenario, but it is hard to predict when that will be. It will depend on the course of the Winter war, and who has the upper hand by March. I tend to favour the end coming about the 1 year anniversary or Easter 23.

[Si1]

7 minutes ago, onlooker said:

Almost certainly the war will end when either:

1} Putin dies or is overthrown

2) Russia runs out of willing and unwilling manpower

or

3) Russia runs out of missiles

I suspect 2) is the most likely scenario, but it is hard to predict when that will be. It will depend on the course of the Winter war, and who has the upper hand by March. I tend to favour the end coming about the 1 year anniversary or Easter 23.

Sounds like nonsense. It will end, much like their occupation of Kherson, when UAF have destroyed all their supply options. Speaking as an amateur guess.

[onlooker]

2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Sounds like nonsense. It will end, much like their occupation of Kherson, when UAF have destroyed all their supply options. Speaking as an amateur guess.

I would like to think that, but I am inclined to believe (speaking as an amateur also), that as Russia retreats and builds defence lines further back, it may be more difficult for the Ukrainians to dislodge them. Getting into Crimea I suspect is relatively difficult, and I was reading today (can't remember where) that the new Russian commander Sergey Surovikin has started to make more effective changes to Russian strategy and organization. At the end of the day, the war will end when the UAF beat the Russians on the battlefield. They have the new effective weapons and they have been taught Western tactics, so as I see it, it now depends on whether the Russians stand and fight, or whether they run.

[satsuma]

48 minutes ago, Goat said:

Falklands "war"; first Gulf war, six day war, Anglo-Zanzibar war.

I'd be surprised if it goes beyond next spring.

Russia and China are collapsing 

[Si1]

22 minutes ago, onlooker said:

I would like to think that, but I am inclined to believe (speaking as an amateur also), that as Russia retreats and builds defence lines further back, it may be more difficult for the Ukrainians to dislodge them.

True about eastern Ukraine.

22 minutes ago, onlooker said:

Getting into Crimea I suspect is relatively difficult,

This is interesting on that score

 

 

22 minutes ago, onlooker said:

and I was reading today (can't remember where) that the new Russian commander Sergey Surovikin has started to make more effective changes to Russian strategy and organization.

He does seem the most competent senior commander yet

22 minutes ago, onlooker said:

At the end of the day, the war will end when the UAF beat the Russians on the battlefield. They have the new effective weapons and they have been taught Western tactics, so as I see it, it now depends on whether the Russians stand and fight, or whether they run.

 

[Staffsknot]

1 hour ago, Grayphil said:

Should we all surrender to china now or later?

They need a bit of time as they are still desperately seeking ex-NATO pilots, soldiers and naval staff to teach them the basics as trainers...

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Sounds like nonsense. It will end, much like their occupation of Kherson, when UAF have destroyed all their supply options. Speaking as an amateur guess.

I agree. This time next year has been suggested.

[Si1]

Just now, Peter Hun said:

I agree. This time next year has been suggested.

@onlooker has a point though, which I belatedly agree with. There's gonna be some out and out grinding direct warfare too.

[Lucky Larry]

27 minutes ago, Si1 said:

@onlooker has a point though, which I belatedly agree with. There's gonna be some out and out grinding direct warfare too.

 I don't like what Russia is doing, but the fact is that western influence IS spreading East and they can be justifiably feeling threatened. 

[Peter Hun]

Russia-Ukraine War. U.S. Defense Secretary Warns of ‘Tyranny and Turmoil’ if Ukraine Loses

The secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, said at a security forum in Canada that North America doesn’t “have the option of sitting this one out.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III stressed the high stakes of the Russia-Ukraine war for the United States and its allies during a keynote address at the Halifax International Security Forum.CreditCredit...Andrew Vaughan/The Canadian Press, via Associated Press

The U.S. defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, on Saturday delivered a stout and defiant defense of America’s support for Ukraine, declaring that failure to help Ukraine prevail in its struggle with Russia could lead to a world of “tyranny and turmoil.”

“The outcome of the war in Ukraine will help determine the course of global security in this young century, and those of us in North America don’t have the option of sitting this one out,” Mr. Austin said in a keynote address at the Halifax International Security Forum in Halifax, Nova Scotia. “Stability and prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic are at stake.”

Mr. Austin’s 30-minute speech amounted to his most forceful words yet on the nine-month-old conflict, as he laid out what the Biden administration sees as the high stakes of the war for the United States and its allies. He called the fight for Ukraine the “worst crisis in America” since the end of World War II.

The secretary said the missile explosions that killed two workers in Poland last week stemmed from the “recklessness” of President Vladimir V. Putin’s “war of choice.” He also denounced Russia for violating the “bedrock principle of noncombatant immunity” by deliberately attacking civilian targets and infrastructure.

“These aren’t just lapses, these aren’t exceptions to the rules,” Mr. Austin said. “These are atrocities.”

He said the conflict in Ukraine had destabilized the international order, and he condemned Mr. Putin for creating a security crisis that threatens to undermine democratic principles around the world.

He said the involvement of Iran and North Korea in helping Russia, as well as China’s new assertiveness in trying to refashion the global system to suit its “might makes right” policies, had reinforced the importance of NATO members’ sticking to their mutual security obligations.

Since February, Mr. Austin said, the United States has extended or deployed 20,000 service members to Europe, raising the total of American troops on the continent to more than 100,000.

“Make no mistake, we will not be dragged into Putin’s war of choice,” Mr. Austin said. “But we will stand by Ukraine as it fights to defend itself. And we will defend every inch of NATO territory.”

He warned that if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine succeeds, it will send a signal to other nations that having nuclear weapons gives them the unfettered ability to invade sovereign countries.

“Because Putin’s fellow autocrats are watching,” he said. “They could well conclude that getting nuclear weapons would give them a hunting license of their own, and that could drive a dangerous spiral of nuclear proliferation.”

The aftermath of the world wars and the Cold War, Mr. Austin said, demonstrated that American stability depends on a “larger trans-Atlantic community of freedom” and that the current crisis in Europe is an urgent challenge.

“The price of establishing the post-World War II order was far too high to just walk away from,” Mr. Austin said. “We have security obligations that we cannot walk away from.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/11/19/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

[Si1]

21 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

 I don't like what Russia is doing, but the fact is that western influence IS spreading East and they can be justifiably feeling threatened. 

They can. And the west and Ukraine have to tread carefully.

Of course Russians see Nazis as coming from their west, so its consistent for them to conflate that with Ukrainian nationalism and Maidan. I think they're wrong to, but whether I'm right or wrong is less important what influences Russia, and it's a factor worth bearing in mind.

[shlomo]

On November 18, the German newspaper Der Spiegel reported that Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers are heavily utilized on the battlefield, but Ukrainian troops are struggling to maintain and repair the weapons due to a lack of spare components.

The report said that the 14 PzH 2000 systems that Germany transferred to Ukraine are experiencing “unexpected problems,” as procurement errors resulted in a shortage of spare parts, endangering the combat effectiveness of the weapons.

The German Defense Ministry is thought to have neglected to order enough spare parts to keep the howitzers serviced and properly maintained on time. 

According to Spiegel, most howitzers now need repairs due to their frequent use. Ukrainian artillery crews fire up to 300 shells per day from each cannon, which results in substantial damage to the weapon system. 

The lack of spare parts is not unexpected. The report noted that Bundeswehr’s procurement division has frequently advised the German Defense Ministry to order substantial shipments of howitzer and MARS II rocket artillery system parts because it takes time to deliver them

[Si1]

10 minutes ago, shlomo said:

On November 18, the German newspaper Der Spiegel reported that Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers are heavily utilized on the battlefield, but Ukrainian troops are struggling to maintain and repair the weapons due to a lack of spare components.

The report said that the 14 PzH 2000 systems that Germany transferred to Ukraine are experiencing “unexpected problems,” as procurement errors resulted in a shortage of spare parts, endangering the combat effectiveness of the weapons.

The German Defense Ministry is thought to have neglected to order enough spare parts to keep the howitzers serviced and properly maintained on time. 

According to Spiegel, most howitzers now need repairs due to their frequent use. Ukrainian artillery crews fire up to 300 shells per day from each cannon, which results in substantial damage to the weapon system. 

The lack of spare parts is not unexpected. The report noted that Bundeswehr’s procurement division has frequently advised the German Defense Ministry to order substantial shipments of howitzer and MARS II rocket artillery system parts because it takes time to deliver them

Somewhat punctures the German reputation for organisation and engineering.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, shlomo said:

On November 18, the German newspaper Der Spiegel reported that Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers are heavily utilized on the battlefield, but Ukrainian troops are struggling to maintain and repair the weapons due to a lack of spare components.

The report said that the 14 PzH 2000 systems that Germany transferred to Ukraine are experiencing “unexpected problems,” as procurement errors resulted in a shortage of spare parts, endangering the combat effectiveness of the weapons.

The German Defense Ministry is thought to have neglected to order enough spare parts to keep the howitzers serviced and properly maintained on time. 

According to Spiegel, most howitzers now need repairs due to their frequent use. Ukrainian artillery crews fire up to 300 shells per day from each cannon, which results in substantial damage to the weapon system. 

The lack of spare parts is not unexpected. The report noted that Bundeswehr’s procurement division has frequently advised the German Defense Ministry to order substantial shipments of howitzer and MARS II rocket artillery system parts because it takes time to deliver them

The German armed forces were hollowed out by years of cost cutting. When this happens the first things to be cut are not the shiny toys, but all the spares/consumables needed to keep them operational in wartime. We have done the same, even to the extent of aircraft carriers without aircraft to put on them. 

Thankfully the Russians have been even worse than the west at this.  

   

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Somewhat punctures the German reputation for organisation and engineering.

Their antiair stuff is apparently the best, or at least it is until the ammunition/missiles run out.

[yelims]

12 hours ago, Lucky Larry said:

 I don't like what Russia is doing, but the fact is that western influence IS spreading East and they can be justifiably feeling threatened. 

By western influence you mean:

* not raping kids?

* not dying decades earlier due to alcoholism?

* not looting washing machines and toilets?

* not sledge hammering your own?

* not living in most corrupt country in world?

Terrible terrible that Russians might be exposed to ideas and culture from these last few centuries which are obviously missing in the barbarian homeland

[yelims]

12 hours ago, Si1 said:

They can. And the west and Ukraine have to tread carefully.

Of course Russians see Nazis as coming from their west, so its consistent for them to conflate that with Ukrainian nationalism and Maidan. I think they're wrong to, but whether I'm right or wrong is less important what influences Russia, and it's a factor worth bearing in mind.

Who gives a ****** anymore what Russians think (or are told to think) once these Nazis are pushed back into their shitholes build a big wall and throw away the key, let them stew in their own shit for a few decades, last time they done that to themselves the whole thing collapsed under the weight of its own hard to hide ******** and contradictions

I see almost a year into this people still treat Russia as a state and Russians as a civilised people, they are nothing but backwards barbarians without an ounce of culture, long past their scientific, sporting, cultural, social, economic and military peak.

we in west have Russia an incredible opportunity to become richest country in world instead they descended enthusiastically into a petro criminal state along lines of isis 

[Si1]

1 hour ago, yelims said:

Who gives a ****** anymore what Russians think (or are told to think) once these Nazis are pushed back into their shitholes build a big wall and throw away the key, let them stew in their own shit for a few decades, last time they done that to themselves the whole thing collapsed under the weight of its own hard to hide ******** and contradictions

I see almost a year into this people still treat Russia as a state and Russians as a civilised people, they are nothing but backwards barbarians without an ounce of culture, long past their scientific, sporting, cultural, social, economic and military peak.

we in west have Russia an incredible opportunity to become richest country in world instead they descended enthusiastically into a petro criminal state along lines of isis 

Well yeah but they're still there whether we like it or not

[Lucky Larry]

2 hours ago, yelims said:

By western influence you mean:

* not raping kids?

* not dying decades earlier due to alcoholism?

* not looting washing machines and toilets?

* not sledge hammering your own?

* not living in most corrupt country in world?

Terrible terrible that Russians might be exposed to ideas and culture from these last few centuries which are obviously missing in the barbarian homeland

*You think no children are subjected to rape in the West ? 

*Ukraine has worse figures and alcoholism is a problem throughout the Western World

*Pay a visit to the British museum plenty of loot there more valuable than a 12 yr old tumble dryer

*The history of the North of Ireland may interest you

*It's not the most corrupt country in the World , that's Afghanistan (2021 figs) when it still had a Western backed Govt

[yelims]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Well yeah but they're still there whether we like it or not

So are North Korea, except no one pays any attention to the ramblings of dear leader 1.0

****** em, at rate Russians are destroying themselves there won’t be a Russia in a few generations and world be a better place 

[yelims]

1 hour ago, Lucky Larry said:

*You think no children are subjected to rape in the West ? 

*Ukraine has worse figures and alcoholism is a problem throughout the Western World

*Pay a visit to the British museum plenty of loot there more valuable than a 12 yr old tumble dryer

*The history of the North of Ireland may interest you

*It's not the most corrupt country in the World , that's Afghanistan (2021 figs) when it still had a Western backed Govt

Ah jesus, what sort of sick person inhabit this forum who go out of the way to defend child raping neo Nazis with whataboutisms 

[Lucky Larry]

1 hour ago, yelims said:

Ah jesus, what sort of sick person inhabit this forum who go out of the way to defend child raping neo Nazis with whataboutisms 

 I'm not defending the rape of any child by any individual , you're the one pretending these crimes don't happen in the West , scraping the barrel in order to try and smear , pathetic . 

[Si1]

1 hour ago, yelims said:

So are North Korea, except no one pays any attention to the ramblings of dear leader 1.0

I suspect that's because North Korea's a lot further away

1 hour ago, yelims said:

****** em, at rate Russians are destroying themselves there won’t be a Russia in a few generations and world be a better place 

 

[satsuma]

On 16/01/2022 at 22:59, onlooker said:

Correct I believe. It does raise the interesting issue that, there is a significant Russian speaking population in Estonia, moved there after WW2. Russia might reclaim them, and the land they live on, as well. Then there is the Kaliningrad enclave. Russia might want a land bridge to reach it.

 

Edit to add, of course, the Russians only acquired the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine under Potemkin during the mid 18th Century, so they have only held the places for about 250 years.

I hope you understand that these people don't want anything to do with Russia.  Just because a country, like Russia, invaded another, like Estonia, and forced them to speak the language hundreds if years ago does not give that country any right to lord it over the enslaved for eternity. 

[Lucky Larry]

The difference between invading Ukraine and invading the Baltic States is automatically triggering article 5 . It would be catastrophic for all concerned if Putin did this that's why it's unlikely to happen.