House price falls predicted in late 2021 ....

[househunter123]

21 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

🤣🤣🤣🤣

It's a market grow some balls and conviction, or at the very least educate yourself before you miss real opportunities again. Otherwise you'll forever be in the right hand queue playing catchup:

 

Hi Monsieur, I'm very risk averse and the saving under the pillow type and the thought of losing 5k-10k is frightening as have saved so hard for it and close to buying a property but that's getting further away. I'm not well read but personally know people the have made a tidy sum and sold all out and those that have lost / losing a lot as they've invested in crypto more recently. 

You're right, not much nerve or balls from my side. Though sometimes, I think feck it and join the game and see what happens in a year. Is a year considered short term investment? 

[Huggy]

21 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

House prices already collapsed in BTC to GBP terms. You already know that. 

I want them to collapse in GBP terms by 60%+ AND 99.999%+ in BTC/GBP terms (from today). I've decided that I want my cake and I will bloody well eat it too.

Edited June 29, 2021 by Huggy

[GregBowman]

On 29/06/2021 at 08:54, Young Turk said:

Yes, £1m and £1.25m were just illustrative examples based roughly on nice houses in affluent areas.

Here in Hove, they do seem to be selling quite easily above £1m (I suppose that just suggests Hove Park and a few other areas are classic desirable areas), though perhaps the prices aren't much higher than 2019. These £1m+ houses listed in mid June are already SSTC:

6 bedroom house for sale in The Droveway, Hove, BN3 (rightmove.co.uk)

5 bedroom detached house for sale in Hove Park Road, Hove, East Sussex, BN3 (rightmove.co.uk)

5 bedroom detached house for sale in Woodland Drive, Hove, East Sussex, BN3 (rightmove.co.uk)

5 bedroom detached house for sale in Tongdean Avenue, Hove, East Sussex, BN3 (rightmove.co.uk)

Is your point more generally that at higher prices, the percentage increase is likely to be smaller. e.g. more likely a house for £500k last year is now £600k, than a £1m to £1.2m? That seems plausible, but my challenge to that would be in Hove many of the houses in the £500-750k region are small and don't have much outside space (these seem to have been the most important factors over the last year or so), whereas the £1m+ houses generally do have big gardens and a lot of spare rooms.

Do you have much of an idea of price movements for different sectors of the market in your area (am I right in thinking you live in North London or Herts?)

Herts close to North London. My feel and that is all it is, is that sub £500k which are flats are proving difficult to shift, £500k - £800k super over heated since there is a pincer movement of families moving up and people down sizing. £1 million+ not much increase since especially in North London they don't come with any more space than that mid band

[VancouverGuy]

That's effectively my observation in the southwest too. Lower price point houses are booming, not so much at the higher price points. I think much of this boom is what's known as the "multiplicity of sales" ... less flats, more lower-priced houses selling, pushing up the average.

[Si1]

1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

, £500k - £800k super over heated since there is a pincer movement of families moving up and people down sizing. 

They will also be subject to stamp duty savings on the 250-500k portion of their price

[Pmax2020]

My father-in-law listed his late parents house, a period property in West Lothian. The ‘home report’ valuation was 280k. First bid is 315k.  Next come two bids around £340k. 

Sworn to secrecy, the wife has finally told me it’s sold price now that the cash is in the bank…. £382k. The buyers are coming from England and lied about being cash buyers - they needed a mortgage and stalled like mad. 
 

I said to her mum ‘well it wasn’t worth that, was it?’. She immediately says ‘Well it obviously was if it sold for that!’. I just shook my head and reminded her that a Chartered Surveyor valued it in it’s present condition as £280k, not £382k.

People just can’t see what’s going on here and it’s infuriating. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by Pmax2020

[Si1]

41 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

My father-in-law listed his late parents house, a period property in West Lothian. The ‘home report’ valuation was 280k. First bid is 315k.  Next come two bids around £340k. 

Sworn to secrecy, the wife has finally told me it’s sold price now that the cash is in the bank…. £382k. The buyers are coming from England and lied about being cash buyers - they needed a mortgage and stalled like mad. 
 

I said to her mum ‘well it wasn’t worth that, was it?’. She immediately says ‘Well it obviously was if it sold for that!’. I just shook my head and reminded her that a Chartered Surveyor valued it in it’s present condition as £280k, not £382k.

People just can’t see what’s going on here and it’s infuriating. 

Mr Market is the judge. Sometimes however, Mr Market smokes crack.

Edited June 30, 2021 by Si1

[Pmax2020]

Or people pay over the odds because they don’t understand the value of money. 

I paid £80 for a Scotland football top with all the euros logos because I haven’t bought one in years and it was an impulse buy. People are buying houses impulsively and just paying ridiculous sums because there are no consequences. 

[Si1]

5 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

Or people pay over the odds because they don’t understand the value of money. 

I paid £80 for a Scotland football top with all the euros logos because I haven’t bought one in years and it was an impulse buy. People are buying houses impulsively and just paying ridiculous sums because there are no consequences. 

The mortgage companies and also Bomad appear to be doing the same.

 

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Mr Market is the judge. Sometimes however, Mr Market smokes crack.

 

Sometimes Mr Market is an arch monopolist who preaches one thing while practicing the opposite.

[Gooner82]

5 hours ago, GregBowman said:

Herts close to North London. My feel and that is all it is, is that sub £500k which are flats are proving difficult to shift, £500k - £800k super over heated since there is a pincer movement of families moving up and people down sizing. £1 million+ not much increase since especially in North London they don't come with any more space than that mid band

Just moved into Herts/North London. Brookmans Park. Doesn’t seem much on the market and what does come on goes straight away. 

[GregBowman]

19 hours ago, Gooner82 said:

Just moved into Herts/North London. Brookmans Park. Doesn’t seem much on the market and what does come on goes straight away. 

Nice place very average pub with a monopoly never good  I have lived there, Hertford, Goffs Oak and Cuffley. In terms of lack of supply never seen anything like it in 15 years. 

[winkie]

21 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

Or people pay over the odds because they don’t understand the value of money. 

I paid £80 for a Scotland football top with all the euros logos because I haven’t bought one in years and it was an impulse buy. People are buying houses impulsively and just paying ridiculous sums because there are no consequences. 

This^^ Only the other day someone was looking to buy, was saying three quarters of a million pounds for a so so house was cheap.....where do they take the comparison from, what they think their own house is worth?

Not that different to someone inquiring about what the going rate was to pay a gardener per hour they wanted to employ.....didn't have a clue.

[winkie]

20 hours ago, Gooner82 said:

Just moved into Herts/North London. Brookmans Park. Doesn’t seem much on the market and what does come on goes straight away. 

Like very many places around the country.....a frenzy of buyers, some buying multiple properties, no wonder not enough to go around for all those that only want to buy the one home to live in......easy credit, low interest rates.

Easy credit to buy property.....hard if want to invest in own business.

[Pmax2020]

On 7/1/2021 at 4:58 PM, winkie said:

This^^ Only the other day someone was looking to buy, was saying three quarters of a million pounds for a so so house was cheap.....where do they take the comparison from, what they think their own house is worth?

Not that different to someone inquiring about what the going rate was to pay a gardener per hour they wanted to employ.....didn't have a clue.

I’ve always tried to assess whether or not something is worth it based on the hours/days/weeks I’d have to work to pay for it. With hindsight I’ve probably been a bit tight at times but not when it comes to the kids. 

Indeed the only real deviation from that principle comes around Christmas time or when the mrs wants to book the family holiday. Often the memories are worth overpaying for but you can imagine me as a Scot lying on the beach, milling over the cost of my head!! I’ve been know you hide some euros in the luggage to stop the wife spending the lot!!

With houses though I find it mad. Friends are signing up to £1000 - 1200 mortgages with no concern that could rise in the future. Figures that present 30-40% of their take home. Most couples we know wouldn’t survive 2 months if one of them lost their jobs, but I guess that just doesn’t concern most people. Why would it?

[jiltedjen]

On 29/06/2021 at 22:28, househunter123 said:

Hi Monsieur, I'm very risk averse and the saving under the pillow type and the thought of losing 5k-10k is frightening as have saved so hard for it and close to buying a property but that's getting further away. I'm not well read but personally know people the have made a tidy sum and sold all out and those that have lost / losing a lot as they've invested in crypto more recently. 

You're right, not much nerve or balls from my side. Though sometimes, I think feck it and join the game and see what happens in a year. Is a year considered short term investment? 

I sold it all and made a tidy sum. I personally know some people in real life with a lot more than me who didn’t sell a penny and on paper have lost massively.

plenty on here got greedy also, didn’t sell or didn’t sell much. 

I still think Bitcoin is worth investing in, next peak will be around April 2025.

so you have years to invest, no rush. just don’t forget! Set a reminder for 12-18 months time. Load up the lows. Then take a reasonable profit of say 100% don’t go mental expecting too much more. don’t get married to an investment. 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

On 6/29/2021 at 10:28 PM, househunter123 said:

Hi Monsieur, I'm very risk averse and the saving under the pillow type and the thought of losing 5k-10k is frightening as have saved so hard for it and close to buying a property but that's getting further away. I'm not well read but personally know people the have made a tidy sum and sold all out and those that have lost / losing a lot as they've invested in crypto more recently. 

You're right, not much nerve or balls from my side. Though sometimes, I think feck it and join the game and see what happens in a year. Is a year considered short term investment? 

Hi @househunter123. Thank you for your reply. Unfortunately at times you do have to take a risk in life. When I first heard of Bitcoin back in 2013 I did take the risk even contining to buy as the crypto markets crashed. But I educated myself on Bitcoins fundamentals and knew this was game-changing technology. Back in 2013 I actually initially thought that I was late to the party and had missed the boat, so was very frustrated and disappointed in myself, however the more I learned the more understood that the crypto genie was out of the bottle, and that this was worth a long-term punt. Starting out today I would feel exactly the same and do exactly as I did before. Invest only what I could afford to lose using DCA strategy and hodl it for about 7 years. I would never, and never have, considered only hodling an investment for one year. If you are interested in learning more about Bitcoin or investing in it I would recommend reading and reply to the main Bitcoin thread. 

[winkie]

14 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

I’ve always tried to assess whether or not something is worth it based on the hours/days/weeks I’d have to work to pay for it. With hindsight I’ve probably been a bit tight at times but not when it comes to the kids. 

Indeed the only real deviation from that principle comes around Christmas time or when the mrs wants to book the family holiday. Often the memories are worth overpaying for but you can imagine me as a Scot lying on the beach, milling over the cost of my head!! I’ve been know you hide some euros in the luggage to stop the wife spending the lot!!

With houses though I find it mad. Friends are signing up to £1000 - 1200 mortgages with no concern that could rise in the future. Figures that present 30-40% of their take home. Most couples we know wouldn’t survive 2 months if one of them lost their jobs, but I guess that just doesn’t concern most people. Why would it?

Most will borrow as much as they can get to buy the best they can get.

[Pop321]

17 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

I’ve always tried to assess whether or not something is worth it based on the hours/days/weeks I’d have to work to pay for it. With hindsight I’ve probably been a bit tight at times but not when it comes to the kids. 

Indeed the only real deviation from that principle comes around Christmas time or when the mrs wants to book the family holiday. Often the memories are worth overpaying for but you can imagine me as a Scot lying on the beach, milling over the cost of my head!! I’ve been know you hide some euros in the luggage to stop the wife spending the lot!!

With houses though I find it mad. Friends are signing up to £1000 - 1200 mortgages with no concern that could rise in the future. Figures that present 30-40% of their take home. Most couples we know wouldn’t survive 2 months if one of them lost their jobs, but I guess that just doesn’t concern most people. Why would it?

The movie ‘In Time’….average by the way……where people buy time made me think of purchases like that. 

The big one for me is that it takes someone a year to save up £4K and they buy a top quality 3 piece suite for that amount. Effectively they have worked a whole year to pay for it. And worse is the ‘forever suite’ quickly looks dated and 5 years later they buy another.

What people spend their money on is their choice…and some people get huge pleasure from certain things and that’s fair enough. But some buy things without thinking of the sacrifice they have made earning the money v’s the reward…zombie purchases on stuff they don’t really want or need. 

We did the holidays to Florida every other year (to be fair rather frugally)…and the camping ones in between. Best memories of my life….and we carry that on with the kids with their kids. For many a waste of money and that’s fair enough…we are all different

[jiltedjen]

London is going down, another year or inevitable lockdowns will be the last nail in the coffin.

rest of the UK will be boom times for years. 

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

On 04/07/2021 at 17:35, jiltedjen said:

London is going down, another year or inevitable lockdowns will be the last nail in the coffin.

rest of the UK will be boom times for years. 

Well, that suits me!

 

On 01/07/2021 at 17:03, winkie said:

Like very many places around the country.....a frenzy of buyers, some buying multiple properties, no wonder not enough to go around for all those that only want to buy the one home to live in......easy credit, low interest rates.

Easy credit to buy property.....hard if want to invest in own business.

I never pay attention to any housing indices, except LR and sold prices. I monitor particular areas to get a true feel for the market.  In the areas I follow, 2 br flats (asking prices) are falling and house prices (asking) have increased, sometimes significantly, but they either stick or are routinely reduced to the previous price range.  The only ones that sell tend to be those below the last selling price for the road(s).  No rush on my part as I have a few options, thankfully.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Buffer Bear

[fatspanner]

I'm guilty of over biding and not sure it's going to pay off now. 5 viewers on a probate property and decided to go in quite high then reduce the offer. All 5 viewers (Estate agent only allowed 5 then stopped viewings). All 5 of us made offers. We went 15% over asking. Mortgage company asked for multiple reports and have down valued by 10%. 

I've gone back with the full valuation and waiting to see what happens. 

I think many will be finding themselves in similar situations where the mortgage company will not lend the amounts offered and many will not have the reserves to make up the difference. 

[Pop321]

28 minutes ago, fatspanner said:

I'm guilty of over biding and not sure it's going to pay off now. 5 viewers on a probate property and decided to go in quite high then reduce the offer. All 5 viewers (Estate agent only allowed 5 then stopped viewings). All 5 of us made offers. We went 15% over asking. Mortgage company asked for multiple reports and have down valued by 10%. 

I've gone back with the full valuation and waiting to see what happens. 

I think many will be finding themselves in similar situations where the mortgage company will not lend the amounts offered and many will not have the reserves to make up the difference. 

At least you see it as ‘overbidding’ and not ‘over cautious valuation’.👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

So many buyers go back to the valuer and demand the nudge it up a bit and then borrow extra from family etc (or use more of their savings). 

A down valuation can be a blessing but understandably if you are looking for somewhere to live it’s a bl00dy inconvenience.

Hope it all pans out. 😉

[fatspanner]

13 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

At least you see it as ‘overbidding’ and not ‘over cautious valuation’.👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

So many buyers go back to the valuer and demand the nudge it up a bit and then borrow extra from family etc (or use more of their savings). 

A down valuation can be a blessing but understandably if you are looking for somewhere to live it’s a bl00dy inconvenience.

Hope it all pans out. 😉

Yep, nice property with loads of potential. The only way we could secure was go in high and reduce on the back of the surveys. The down valuation is like you say a blessing. 

It's taken 5 months so they could chance it and put it back on the market. They could get a cash buyer or end up in the same situation several more months down the line. 

Luckily the sellers have never seen the property and live abroad so hoping the estate agents do their job and let them know that the valuation will come back very similar even when relisted. 

[dpg50000]

11 hours ago, fatspanner said:

Yep, nice property with loads of potential. The only way we could secure was go in high and reduce on the back of the surveys. The down valuation is like you say a blessing. 

It's taken 5 months so they could chance it and put it back on the market. They could get a cash buyer or end up in the same situation several more months down the line. 

Luckily the sellers have never seen the property and live abroad so hoping the estate agents do their job and let them know that the valuation will come back very similar even when relisted. 

Bit of an assumption there..... 😉😆 

 

But seriously, good luck, hope you get it at an acceptable price.