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About VancouverGuy

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  1. Execpt it's not, is it? For most mortgages the first 3 years is the only "real" commitment.
  2. Add: The Price-Earnings ratio on a typical house in all the worlds bubble cities is roughly comparable with the NASDAQ at the peak of the dotcom bubble. The cheapest money we'll all ever see in our entire lives is now in the rear-view mirror.
  3. Considering the leverage likely involved, and Mark Carney's warnings on the UK housing market if a no-deal happens - Brexit has the potential to utterly bankrupt people like Blair. No wonder they're so opposed to it.
  4. I visited a National Trust property this Summer; they had an interesting display on the Sufragette movement a century ago - detailing the struggles leading up to women getting the vote. The striking thing to me was how in the public debate, many of the hitherto respected MPs, commentators and senior public officials were so publicly adamant that giving women (and non-landowners) the vote would be a terrible thing, akin to destruction of the civilised fabric of Britain. I wonder how Mark Carney's comments wiĺl be seen in the same light.
  5. Years ago there used to be a tramp in London, who had a side-gig as a debt collector, getting debts paid by big companies. Anyone who was owed moey by a big company with a fancy head office in London could pay this guy to show up at their head office, dressed in smelly rags, unwashed, stinking of piss, and would ask to get the debt paid. When he got the standard "Nobody is available today", or the "Please put it in writing", he would sit in reception all day stinking the place out ("That's OK - I don't mind waiting"). Used to work pretty well apparently.
  6. It's becoming quite entertaining observing so many politicians, across the entire globe, qpositioning themselves for being on the right side of a rising bond-yield environment.
  7. From my own point of view of the ongoing bubble, the enduring symbol will be granite countertops. I often wonder what the archeologists of the year 3000 will think when they find all these slabs of granite with strange round holes in. They probably recognise them as "symbols of great wealth", but will they join the dots properly?
  8. Canada does have the same phemonenon, just not referred to in the same way.
  9. For Price-Earnings ratio on real estate I look at earnings from the asset, not earnings in local salaries. I'm a student of Graham and Dodd and believe it makes more sense to value housing using this metric. Central Banks around the world consider real estate to be an asset (for good reason ... it's not a consumable - nobody needs a house but everyone needs a home - something that can be purchased in monthly allocations) and so it makes more sense to measure the value of real estate as any other asset , be it a stock or a bond. For the PE ratio, I generally take the price - together with any obligatory taxes and fees , and divide by 10 months rent. Why not 12? Well, I'm interested in the earnings of the asset, not revenue (as a stock analyst would measure the earnings of a company). The 2 missing months are generally accounted for by the annual property tax (which the landlord has to pay), insurance (which the landlord has to pay), strata fees (which the landlord has to pay), and maintenance (which the landlord has to pay). It's an approximation but is a fairly accurate one that has stood the test of time.
  10. I should've mentioned .... on a Price-Earnings ratio basis, Vancouver is currently at about 37-39. Which, although is still in the ballpark of the NASDAQ at the height of the dotcom bubble, is significantly lower than where it was a couple of years ago at the peak.
  11. Vancouver seems to be correcting quite nicely too - probably similar numbers to Toronto in detacheds. This place is my personal bell-weather of the market, since the current owner bought it a couple of years ago for $2.6M and is now trying to sell it for $1.99M - a nice loss of $800,000 including all the taxes and fees, or a loss of about $1M when you include the opportunity cost. They've been trying to sell it for over a year now and I strongly suspect the current owner IS the realtor, since they keep re-listing it with the same realtor - an oddity in the list-delist-list-delist Vancouver market. Interestingly, the realtor is an ex-low-grade reality TV star with a husband on gangland murder charges - a background that sure fits the profile of someone who would pay $1M more that the previous sale just a year before, then try to offload it a year later. Now the tide has gone out, you're starting to see those swimming naked.
  12. I just felt a great disturbance in the suburbs, as if thousands of voices cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced.
  13. As one commentator said, "That's where your grandkids will go to buy their crack-cocaine.".
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