Pop321 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Thread on Property Tribes which in turn links to the Express. Apologies if this is a duplicate. Appreciate this will be an attempt to scare the government into extending stamp duty….but looks like more people are waiting for a dip. I have never been more uncertain of what will happen in the next few years but I know this market will run out of steam…and there is a lot of froth at the moment so when that disappears it will be interesting to see whether prices actually did rise over the past 18 months. Personally I suspect they will settle back quickly to Jan 2020 levels (rather than fall as such) and then the market will begin to find itself. The Centre for Economic and Business Research predicts property prices will plummet 14 percent by the end of 2021 and start of 2022. Some industry insiders estimate prices will fall after the holiday ends in June, which will only continue until 2022 begins. https://www.propertytribes.com/house-price-falls-predicted-in-late-2021-t-127652773.html https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/property/1450301/stamp-duty-holiday-end-date-will-house-prices-drop-2021-2022-EVG If nothing else, this market is going to be very interesting over the next 6/12 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 I get email alerts virtually every day from rightmove with reductions in my area. The good stuff goes instantly but the overpriced dregs asking prices are coming down already. July/Aug holidays will shake it out a bit, then usual uptick when people come back from hols and panic about buying before Xmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freki Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Because "all else being equal" is how the market has been operating in this country? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voice of Doom Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 I suspect Sunak might regret the SD holiday. I can see why he wanted to pre-empt falls but he now has less in the HPI armoury. Next few months will be quite bumpy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Locke Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, Voice of Doom said: I suspect Sunak might regret the SD holiday. I can see why he wanted to pre-empt falls but he now has less in the HPI armoury. Next few months will be quite bumpy. Sunak doesn't give a shit. Is Brown in prison? 1 hour ago, Pop321 said: Some industry insiders estimate prices will fall after the holiday ends in June, which will only continue until 2022 begins. I think thee will be no sales for a few months before it all falls apart. Like one of those samurai movies where they get cut in half and don't realise yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Signs of cooling market as stamp duty holiday end date looms https://propertyindustryeye.com/signs-of-cooling-as-end-of-stamp-duty-holiday-reduces-urgency-to-move/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, rantnrave said: Signs of cooling market as stamp duty holiday end date looms https://propertyindustryeye.com/signs-of-cooling-as-end-of-stamp-duty-holiday-reduces-urgency-to-move/ Time for more stimulus to 'help' buyers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshall211 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 I could not locate any authentic CEBR article predicting what OP's comment mentioned. A quick look on their website has the prediction from Sept 2020. Could Express be recycling an old article on their own? Having said above, I do notice a slowdown (I am in SE London) with very few new listings, few properties coming back (with no change in their price tag). Anything reasonably priced still sells like hot cakes while the overpriced ones keeps hanging. I expect some slowdown from SD Holiday ending, I do not expect a major correction in the absence of interest rate rises. The only thing that will cause correction if steep dip in affordability on account of higher rates or continued high unemployment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 I am cheered by the thought that crashes and collapses do come out of the blue and 'could not be foreseen' (in the sense of timing, there will be a humungous crash, just don't know when). This could then be this afternoon that the first great news comes out, for example NW in trouble for lending too much to too many idiots. Or it could be 10 years time.... but I'm hoping for half 3 today. I might even buy in 2 years if there's no positive movement to the market. If a global pandemic and Brexit can't deal with HPI, no idea what can apart from many long and drawn out years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, Huggy said: I am cheered by the thought that crashes and collapses do come out of the blue and 'could not be foreseen' (in the sense of timing, there will be a humungous crash, just don't know when). This could then be this afternoon that the first great news comes out, for example NW in trouble for lending too much to too many idiots. Or it could be 10 years time.... but I'm hoping for half 3 today. I might even buy in 2 years if there's no positive movement to the market. If a global pandemic and Brexit can't deal with HPI, no idea what can apart from many long and drawn out years. Rishi, Boris, hubris. Printy printy. Fred Harrison 2026. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual-observer Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 35 minutes ago, Marshall211 said: I could not locate any authentic CEBR article predicting what OP's comment mentioned. A quick look on their website has the prediction from Sept 2020. Could Express be recycling an old article on their own? Having said above, I do notice a slowdown (I am in SE London) with very few new listings, few properties coming back (with no change in their price tag). Anything reasonably priced still sells like hot cakes while the overpriced ones keeps hanging. I expect some slowdown from SD Holiday ending, I do not expect a major correction in the absence of interest rate rises. The only thing that will cause correction if steep dip in affordability on account of higher rates or continued high unemployment. I agree with this, the job market seems too strong to see any sort of major price reductions across the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Everyone I know expects a crash in Q3/4 this year. I tend more towards Q4... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, gruffydd said: Everyone I know expects a crash in Q3/4 this year. I tend more towards Q4... What kind of people are these? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Si1 said: What kind of people are these? sorry I should've qualified that! People at work... various types of analyst - financial services sector. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Up like a rocket but down like a burnt stick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 53 minutes ago, gruffydd said: Everyone I know expects a crash in Q3/4 this year. I tend more towards Q4... I am braced to see the props. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, Si1 said: I am braced to see the props. Rishi Sunak morphs into a character named Spiv Canute... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, gruffydd said: Rishi Sunak morphs into a character named Spiv Canute... Him and Bailey do not appear to be the brilliant criminal minds of Osborne and in particular Carney, I'll say that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Si1 said: Him and Bailey do not appear to be the brilliant criminal minds of Osborne and in particular Carney, I'll say that. Funnily enough I have a store of endless correspondence with Andrew Bailey before he became Gov... might dig it out and sure enough - certainly not a great mind... nor is Sunak. Osborne and Carney were/are both bright. Edited June 21, 2021 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 4 hours ago, Voice of Doom said: I suspect Sunak might regret the SD holiday. I can see why he wanted to pre-empt falls but he now has less in the HPI armoury. Next few months will be quite bumpy. What as much as 'eat out to help out'.......there are benefits and disadvantages to every action that is taken, depending on who or what he wants to 'help out'.......quick easy short-term emergency gains often lead to longer drawn out losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MARTINX9 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 I presume people are going to have to sell up their country pile when their employers inform them they are going to need to come into the office 2 days a week - and the five hour round commute doesn't suit especially in mid winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young Turk Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 3 hours ago, gruffydd said: Funnily enough I have a store of endless correspondence with Andrew Bailey before he became Gov... might dig it out and sure enough - certainly not a great mind... nor is Sunak. Osborne and Carney were/are both bright. Sunak seems mentally defective, so I'm not surprised if Osborne's more intelligent. I'm surprised to hear there's much difference between Carney and Bailey though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said: ... and the five hour round commute doesn't suit especially in mid winter. What seemed doable in June is balls ache in January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 8 hours ago, Voice of Doom said: I suspect Sunak might regret the SD holiday. I can see why he wanted to pre-empt falls but he now has less in the HPI armoury. Next few months will be quite bumpy. He created a large pimple on a boil. Disgusting really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, steve99 said: He created a large pimple on a boil. Disgusting really. Sunak p*ssed away a completely open goal to rebalance the economy and pin the pain on COVID; even more so than the moron Osborne who could've used GFC and blamed it all on Labour. It'll be on his watch now and he'll be held accountable if he can't kick the can - BoJo and the Rabid Right of the Tories will make sure of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.