Have we seen the end of cheap air travel?

[regprentice]

12 hours ago, Trampa501 said:

The owners of "Hays travel" (I think that's their name) were being interviewed. They admitted that sales have slumped to nearly zero for this summer, but that bookings have soared for "winter sun" deals, particularly for places like the Canaries and the Balearics. The impression being given is that the public expect things to be back to normal by December.

Hmmmm...

From a confidence point of view, mainly due to furlough, a lot of people still feel perfectly safe in their Jobs. Other threads reckon that redundancies are just beginning to be planned now, to coincide with the start of employers starting to pay into the furlough. Til now its been a free ride for employers. 

A lot of people also have cash, credit card refunds, or vouchers for holidays in summer which they are now spending in the winter. 

I'm not sure how many holidays being sold now can actually be fully provisioned under the new social distancing rules, but I'd imagine most people think that if I booked a holiday today, the holiday company has had plenty of time to plan, and they should be able to provide the holiday 'as-is' per the booking. 

A friend of my parent rebooked for new York next year, moving forward a booking with TUI from this year, but at 65 they've now found they can't get travel insurance at all, it's not too expensive for them, it just doesn't seem to exist. Computer says no. 

[Chunketh]

26 minutes ago, crumblingcon said:

At the start of this year I have to admit to my shame that I had two trips to Vietnam planned this year, that's history now for obvious reasons.

But for a while now I have  been telling myself I am going make a huge effort to remain within 1000 miles of the UK and cut down on my air travel, and a lot of that will be actually travelling in UK borders itself. And I can see myself living a lifetime and not being able to see all the stuff that is out there and close by and fascinating and enjoyable.

No shame in wanting to visit Vietnam. It's in my top 5 countries that I really want to visit.

If you are talking carbon footprint, its a non-issue if you dont have kids.

[GregBowman]

2 hours ago, crouch said:

Surely it's not just the middle seat. Are you 2 m from the person in front or 2m from the person across the aisle?

One thing will rescue air travel as much else - an effective vaccine.

That ain’t happening anytime soon  - I will take my chances as will millions of other people - masks will get better as well - it’s your attitude to risk and general health as much as anything 

As @HovelinHove also says plenty of us prepared to pay extra for comfort and now safety business class upwards will be reconfigured 

[Peter Hun]

12 hours ago, Si1 said:

I understand it may simply be economically unviable to furlough large 4 engine airliners like 747s and A380s for the 4 or so years it takes for coronavirus waves to stop. So they'll be scrapped and the biggest airliners, which are frankly almost as big, will be efficient 2 engine ones like, I think, Boeing 777s.

777 are being retired as well as 380, 747. Bit of a shock that the super efficient 777 is now un-viable.

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

It won't be 40%. Not for the likes of Ryanair and easyjet. It will be much higher. You'll have all those empty seats not buying £5 stella and scratch cards. They'll have to recoup the lost revenue. 30% of Ryanair revenues come from ancillary services. They don't make profit on the actual fares. Average fare last year were approx €40 and about £65 for easyjet. They'll easily double.  

This is correct. More than double in prices.

Its not just the extra's, higher fares have a non-linear effect on demand. Ryanair requires a high volume to function at all.

[Si1]

9 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

777 are being retired as well as 380, 747. Bit of a shock that the super efficient 777 is now un-viable.

Will they be bone yarded or scrapped?

[crouch]

25 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

That ain’t happening anytime soon  - I will take my chances as will millions of other people - masks will get better as well - it’s your attitude to risk and general health as much as anything 

As @HovelinHove also says plenty of us prepared to pay extra for comfort and now safety business class upwards will be reconfigured 

I agree that a vaccine isn't happening anytime soon.

However, people are very wary about this as shown in their attitude to ending the lockdown early so their will be many who will not be inclined to "take their chances".

Furthermore if you configure in extra insurance costs, particularly relevant for the tourist business and the over 65s, you have a situation which is going to create considerable difficulty for the airlines this side of a vaccine.

[Peter Hun]

52 minutes ago, regprentice said:

A friend of my parent rebooked for new York next year, moving forward a booking with TUI from this year, but at 65 they've now found they can't get travel insurance at all, it's not too expensive for them, it just doesn't seem to exist. Computer says no. 

Un-quantifiable risk cannot be insured. The long term health effect, even the short term, is unknown. A COVID spell in hospital could be 50 days. In the USA you will need $1million ++ insurance. When you have rates of hospitlisation of 5-20% at US costs, its nonviable to insure. BTW, there is travel insurance being sold because its invalidated by government advice to not travel.

6 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Will they be bone yarded or scrapped?

Bone yard. Five years time they may come back,  maybe.

 

33 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

That ain’t happening anytime soon  - I will take my chances as will millions of other people - masks will get better as well - it’s your attitude to risk and general health as much as anything 

Businesses won't. Without businesses paying for the cost of long haul,  flying economy will cost five times as much. Every seat will be Business class and cost. 

[HovelinHove]

I got really lucky. I had a 3 week trip to New Zealand just before the lock downs this year...flew back on March 15th and the airports wee already dead, so quite happy to sit it out for a year before I fly anywhere again. Also I do quite a bit of unnecessary flying for work (internal company meetings mostly), and these are usually on cramped short haul flights, so super glad I won't be doing that for a while.

[GregBowman]

4 hours ago, crouch said:

I agree that a vaccine isn't happening anytime soon.

However, people are very wary about this as shown in their attitude to ending the lockdown early so their will be many who will not be inclined to "take their chances".

Furthermore if you configure in extra insurance costs, particularly relevant for the tourist business and the over 65s, you have a situation which is going to create considerable difficulty for the airlines this side of a vaccine.

People - to be frank depends on the circles you mix in - pay the majority of the population to do F*** all with furlough and they will want more of it hiding behind the guise of safety...

Millions  travel without insurance now as well that will just increase 

I would jump on a flight tomorrow as would plenty of others 

Most people aren’t wary of ending the lockdown early they are lazy f*** who can’t believe their luck in having a paid for holiday like this of course they express a preference for it to continue 

 

[Warwick-Watcher]

16 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

People - to be frank depends on the circles you mix in - pay the majority of the population to do F*** all with furlough and they will want more of it hiding behind the guise of safety...

Millions  travel without insurance now as well that will just increase 

I would jump on a flight tomorrow as would plenty of others 

Most people aren’t wary of ending the lockdown early they are lazy f*** who can’t believe their luck in having a paid for holiday like this of course they express a preference for it to continue 

 

Millions travel now without insurance. Wait until the FCO gets hit with too many bleeding heart stories and it will become mandatory to show your travel insurance docs on departure along with your passport.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

7 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

It won't be 40%. Not for the likes of Ryanair and easyjet. It will be much higher. You'll have all those empty seats not buying £5 stella and scratch cards. They'll have to recoup the lost revenue. 30% of Ryanair revenues come from ancillary services. They don't make profit on the actual fares. Average fare last year were approx €40 and about £65 for easyjet. They'll easily double.  

Ugghh....they'd have to pay me £5 to drink Stella........spoken like a true beer snob!

[winkie]

The virus is only passed to others via the nose, mouth or eyes........this virus does not come out of skin, arms, legs or other personal places......once we can breath into a breathalyser that can register the presence of the virus in a person instantly or within a few minutes we will then know and can deal with it and how to deal with the infected person......letting the safe go free and isolate those that carry the virus so as not to continue to infect others...... 

[CityLAD88888]

7 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I expect the opposite for business and first class. Flight numbers will be reduced. Business can afford to pay, they'll have less flights on the same route at higher prices. They'll fill quicker. 

@HovelinHove has a point about far fewer business trips/travel in future though. People are realising they don't need as much 'face time' with the technology (read: Zoom) getting better all the time and business travel was always a low hanging fruit cost on the balance sheet to cut in lean times. Be interesting to see which way it goes in terms of flight pricing. 

[winkie]

All short-haul flights.....no eat, no drink and no be merry....got a mask to keep on, gloves to protect, do not touch the tray or arm rests, no toilet, and no fun for less or not much more than a couple of hours pain......after that the fun starts.....prepare and protect yourselves....worth it

[Trampa501]

A vaccine may not be needed, if a cure is found. But is that likely?

[2buyornot2buy]

12 minutes ago, CityLAD88888 said:

@HovelinHove has a point about far fewer business trips/travel in future though. People are realising they don't need as much 'face time' with the technology (read: Zoom) getting better all the time and business travel was always a low hanging fruit cost on the balance sheet to cut in lean times. Be interesting to see which way it goes in terms of flight pricing. 

Business class is the profit. I think instead of 4 BA flights to NY per day there will be 2 but with a covid full business and first. This ticket costs won't drop massively. 

[Trampa501]

The Ryanair model doesn't rely on getting the business travellers to subsidise everyone else (although they do get business travellers keen to save pennies). They may survive by getting regional tourist authorities/airports, desparate for the return of tourist traffic, pushing some readies their way.  Back to the old ways...

[winkie]

Those that want to get here will get here, those that want to leave here will leave here to come back.....same as it ever was.

Can you imagine the spotlight on certain celebrities and people of importance......one law for us, one law for all of us.....?

[MARTINX9]

I see we won't have to quarantine on returning from Ireland - but Ireland quite understandably as a small country is still planning to impose a 2 week quarantine on arrivals from GB. You can apparently fly to Dublin from England, Scotland and Wales and then travel onwards to NI/Belfast - but why wouldn't you just fly direct to Belfast or Derry?

So Ireland trips still require 2 weeks quarantine there - so only any use for people who can stay with relatives or have a holiday home frankly.

[Confusion of VIs]

11 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

I would prefer to pay 40% more and there be no middle seat. I also pay extra to fly business class long haul. I think the people who can afford the better seats are less affected by this crisis than those who buy the cheapest. If the business and premium seats are full on a long haul flight, the airline usually breaks even.

Removing the middle seat makes no real difference you are all still well within droplet travel distance. The only way to dramatically reduce the risk is for everyone to wear facemasks coupled with no food service.  

Business travel is going to be drastically reduced for much longer than leisure, in a normal year I authorise more than 100 flights next year I don't expect to be authorising any. Going of Barcelona, Munich or Las Vegas for a conference jolly will become fond memories, most other business meetings will be held on line.  

 

[HovelinHove]

1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Removing the middle seat makes no real difference you are all still well within droplet travel distance. The only way to dramatically reduce the risk is for everyone to wear facemasks coupled with no food service.  

Business travel is going to be drastically reduced for much longer than leisure, in a normal year I authorise more than 100 flights next year I don't expect to be authorising any. Going of Barcelona, Munich or Las Vegas for a conference jolly will become fond memories, most other business meetings will be held on line.  

 

I have been to all those cities more times than I care to count, and am quite glad of the break from “jollies”. I feel for the new crop of “youngsters” entering the corporate world who were looking to get their snouts deep in the profligate trough of company largesse...Zoom is not quite the same as cocktails on the veranda in Seville. I hate f$%^king zoom...>20 hours this week.

[GregBowman]

2 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

I have been to all those cities more times than I care to count, and am quite glad of the break from “jollies”. I feel for the new crop of “youngsters” entering the corporate world who were looking to get their snouts deep in the profligate trough of company largesse...Zoom is not quite the same as cocktails on the veranda in Seville. I hate f$%^king zoom...>20 hours this week.

?? ain’t that the truth and don’t forget the jolly social ones !

[MARTINX9]

11 hours ago, Chunketh said:

No shame in wanting to visit Vietnam. It's in my top 5 countries that I really want to visit.

If you are talking carbon footprint, its a non-issue if you dont have kids.

Totally agree.

45 people would need to give up flying to have the same effect on emissions etc as one extra child born. So be wary of mumsnet users pontificating on climate change!

[steve99]

On 21/05/2020 at 22:07, Si1 said:

I understand it may simply be economically unviable to furlough large 4 engine airliners like 747s and A380s for the 4 or so years it takes for coronavirus waves to stop. So they'll be scrapped and the biggest airliners, which are frankly almost as big, will be efficient 2 engine ones like, I think, Boeing 777s.

I hope this thing provides a boost to land travel options with lower carbon footprints like trains and ferries where, I think, social distancing can be done more economically.

Or will people just have to wear masks on all flights instead?

As someone who has done around 30 miserable (happy family problems, not holiday) return flights to Australia in the last 20 years I can tell you the reason 777's 787's are the go-to plane right now and that is because they have slipped an extra column of seats in them from the original design. This makes the seats narrower than that of a ryanair 737 and arm rests 1.5'' thin.  Unless you are very thin and young with a good back these planes on long haul are a night mare.   That is how a new 777 can hold as much as an old 747.  A380s were the pinicle of long haul travel for economy passengers for many reasons and would gladly pay more to fly on them but it looks like we will pay more to fly on squished, deep vein thrombosis, sardine cans.  Hopefully some airlines like SIA and emirates will keep enough to see me out. The only close exception to the modern seating config is A350s which are wider than the 787's for the same across seating config.