Will Corona virus cause a house price crash?

[crumblingcon]

9 minutes ago, stilgar said:

What makes you think that there is a sizeable anti English rhetoric? There really isn't. About half the people living in the highlands are English anyway   The independence movement was/is more to do with freeing ourselves from the Tories and since Brexit, re-joining Europe

Because I go there all the time, and have done since 1985

[Bluestone59]

59 minutes ago, crumblingcon said:

Because I go there all the time, and have done since 1985

I've visited Scotland on and off since 1962 and had Scots family there until they all died or left. I was last in the borders in 2003 so I'm not up to date.

Most trips I've encountered something, mostly banter, some you're not sure and the rare bit of unpleasantness. 

Despite the fact that I'm 50% Scots I wouldn't personally move there just in case as I don't sound like I'm at all Scots. 

 

[winkie]

On 21/05/2020 at 14:27, Pmax2020 said:

look how much you get for 600k...

Or something more modest, a family home for 275k, 4 bed detached new build...

Price has absolutely nothing to do with value.......those that pay the price have just as much chance of losing the most, when others no longer want it however much money ramping it and marketing thrown at it.

[Pmax2020]

3 hours ago, winkie said:

Price has absolutely nothing to do with value.......those that pay the price have just as much chance of losing the most, when others no longer want it however much money ramping it and marketing thrown at it.

There must be some correlation between value and affordability though, in relation to average wages. My wife and I take home 55k and have a really nice forever home that is worth a mere 250k (currently!). I suppose we are lucky that geographically we don’t need to spend double or treble that figure for the same house in the centre of Edinrbugh or a commuter belt outside London.

When I consider friends, family and colleagues, I just don’t see anybody that’s in a precarious position either. 
 

With its far lower prices, I just don’t see the Scottish housing market being hit as hard. 

 

[MARTINX9]

Any news on help for renters and extending the no eviction period? That is due to end in mid June still isn't it.

I know they are seen as a lower life form who don't matter but many will be NHS and care workers especially in London. And unlike mortgage payers they could be evicted with very little notice - whereas mortgage non payers could extend for months.

Apparently landlords are just requested to 'show compassion'!

[crumblingcon]

9 hours ago, captainb said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52767058

 

Holiday being extended another 3 months. 

 

So i wouldn't expect any distressed sellers this year. As you can not pay your mortgage from aptil to sept

This is not just about stressed sellers, low interest rates or any reason people can come up with to be able to continue paying for an over priced asset, I could pay £20 quid weekly for one Mars bar if I wanted to.

This is all about what buyers are willing to offer post C-19

[crumblingcon]

6 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Any news on help for renters and extending the no eviction period? That is due to end in mid June still isn't it.

I know they are seen as a lower life form who don't matter but many will be NHS and care workers especially in London. And unlike mortgage payers they could be evicted with very little notice - whereas mortgage non payers could extend for months.

Apparently landlords are just requested to 'show compassion'!

I do hope you are not trying to compare renters to "hardworking homeowners"

The f*****g cheek of your suggestion 

[Trampa501]

Government currently looking very unsteady as regards policy, whether it's kids going back to school or the quarantine on air visitors 3 months late. I'm starting to think there could be a general meltdown (not just house prices) if the government doesn't get a grip soon.

[MARTINX9]

9 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

Government currently looking very unsteady as regards policy, whether it's kids going back to school or the quarantine on air visitors 3 months late. I'm starting to think there could be a general meltdown (not just house prices) if the government doesn't get a grip soon.

They just seem very reactive and can't hold the line - just caving in to every social media outcry.

I presume nurses, doctors, carers etc who are UK nationals working overseas without permanent residency also get free healthcare locally now without any contributions. Shouldn't it be reciprocal?

The 14 day quarantine is another farce - why does it need 3 weeks to introduce when Ireland introduced its quarantine scheme in 2 days? And they haven't even agreed a common travel area policy with Leo V - Brits going to Ireland stlll need to quarantine for 2 weeks on arrival the only exception being those coming from NI. Hopeless!

Edited May 22, 2020 by MARTINX9

[captainb]

41 minutes ago, crumblingcon said:

This is not just about stressed sellers, low interest rates or any reason people can come up with to be able to continue paying for an over priced asset, I could pay £20 quid weekly for one Mars bar if I wanted to.

This is all about what buyers are willing to offer post C-19

Quite but i wouldn't look here for a fair reflection of what people are willing to pay. People are and were paying those prices pre CV19 we think are ridiculous.

Post CV19 a 5% discount might seem like a bargain to be snapped up.

[steve99]

12 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

I loved Scotland for decades now, the Western Highlands and Isles being my favourite. And for quite a long time now I have considered moving up there as I love the outdoors and the people. But that possibility now has been greatly reduced because I just cannot stand the sizable anti English rhetoric up there anymore, even though by far most people up there are still decent. I might add I have always liked the 

In the same position but water of a ducks back to me as was bought up with this bigotry in Australia.  My wifes brother and family  moved back home to Scotland from London. They lasted less than a year on account of their kids getting bullied for their London accents and some of the teachers were no better than the kids.  There is a town in central Scotland where some of my wifes family live and one of the shop owners wont reply to you if you have an English accent and nor will he take English or should I say British ££ notes.

[steve99]

3 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Any news on help for renters and extending the no eviction period? That is due to end in mid June still isn't it.

I know they are seen as a lower life form who don't matter but many will be NHS and care workers especially in London. And unlike mortgage payers they could be evicted with very little notice - whereas mortgage non payers could extend for months.

Apparently landlords are just requested to 'show compassion'!

I know an old codger HMO landlord, 77 years old now who wont let go because the bank interest rates have been less than inflation for the last 10 or more years. He is a charming old fellow who plans to evict half of his tenants asap because he wants to put his rents up.  I told him 'good luck with that'  and if this goes on longer, the type of people he 'homes'  wont be paying any rent nor moving out. He really is not connected to the real world any more. Most of his tenants are min wage zero hour contract workers mostly coming from EU. He also voted brexit thinking it would keep Arabs, Indians and Africans out.  He has had recent serious heart problems and I can see his wife selling this monster house when he is dead or crippled for less than half what he would have gotten in the last 5 years just to get rid of it. She is 20 years younger than him and much nicer,  she will enjoy the money.

[Bluestone59]

26 minutes ago, steve99 said:

In the same position but water of a ducks back to me as was bought up with this bigotry in Australia.  My wifes brother and family  moved back home to Scotland from London. They lasted less than a year on account of their kids getting bullied for their London accents and some of the teachers were no better than the kids.  There is a town in central Scotland where some of my wifes family live and one of the shop owners wont reply to you if you have an English accent and nor will he take English or should I say British ££ notes.

Once went into a chippie bang in the middle of darkest Wales. Gave my order and the bloke just walked out the back.

Stood there a mo and another guy appeared. Asked what's up and was told that the first bloke refuses to converse in English. "He understands it mind, he just won't use it."

In a tourist area too FFS!!

 

[steve99]

4 minutes ago, Bluestone59 said:

Once went into a chippie bang in the middle of darkest Wales. Gave my order and the bloke just walked out the back.

Stood there a mo and another guy appeared. Asked what's up and was told that the first bloke refuses to converse in English. "He understands it mind, he just won't use it."

In a tourist area too FFS!!

 

Yes, Wales can be worse than Scotland.  

[Bluestone59]

11 minutes ago, steve99 said:

Yes, Wales can be worse than Scotland.  

Never had it in post industrial South Wales though! 

What I did get was free tea in a miners' shack (surface), a lift in a locomotive cab when there was no BR train due and my car started by 4 blokes who spilled out of a club when they heard its starter jam.

 

[Orb]

26 minutes ago, steve99 said:

Yes, Wales can be worse than Scotland.  

One of the more amusing moments of my life was driving through the Brecon Beacons with an ex girlfriend around 2002. We stopped in a very scenic part, and sat savouring the peace. It was one of those romantic moments. After a while my ex pointed and said "look at that". It was an armco barrier, and spray pained onto it the words "F*** off English". 

[crumblingcon]

7 hours ago, steve99 said:

In the same position but water of a ducks back to me as was bought up with this bigotry in Australia.  My wifes brother and family  moved back home to Scotland from London. They lasted less than a year on account of their kids getting bullied for their London accents and some of the teachers were no better than the kids.  There is a town in central Scotland where some of my wifes family live and one of the shop owners wont reply to you if you have an English accent and nor will he take English or should I say British ££ notes.

My last incident was actually across the other side of Scotland in Aberdeen where I also visit sometimes. There was character who turned up at the pub one night in a kilt and obviously far from shy and who was a few years older than me, I took a liking to him straight away.  But inbetween all the banter and him telling me why he hated Billy Connolly so much he just could not stop himself from telling me what bas****s the English were as if I wasn't even there and like it does not really matter anyway. By the end of the night and after a few drinks I found myself at the other end of the bar for safety reasons and just out of self control, more bothered about him kicking off than me though as I don't start bar brawls. 

These incidents are far from rare and go way back to 1985, but back then it was not nearly as bad and the anti English tended to be laughed at by the locals themselves. There was a great comedy back in the early 1990's called Absolutely that hit the nail on the head in how it sniggered at anti English rhetoric and made them look silly, Scottish comedians I might add. Orkney seems to be not too bad and Shetland even better, you get the feeling that some of them don't even consider themselves to be Scottish

[crumblingcon]

7 hours ago, Bluestone59 said:

Once went into a chippie bang in the middle of darkest Wales. Gave my order and the bloke just walked out the back.

Stood there a mo and another guy appeared. Asked what's up and was told that the first bloke refuses to converse in English. "He understands it mind, he just won't use it."

In a tourist area too FFS!!

 

I know right now we have to stay at home and I am 100% following the lockdown rules. But can't you just sense the hostility in the constant media announcements where the English are told with a sort aggressive glee "We don't want you here" like it goes far deeper than any concern about the virus.

England has a population in the 50 million plus area, we should be working harder at cutting down the risk of people entering out country because we are already  living like sardines, but no, it's always Wales and Scotland with an already tiny population that the dirty diseased English cannot enter

[Pop321]

On 21/05/2020 at 11:29, moonriver said:

Just heard Martin Lewis, Money saving expert, on itv "This Morning" answer a question from a FTB with only 5% deposit, as to whether to delay their purchase.

to sum up he told her....

it is a tricky time to be buying a house,

to get a decent mortgage now you need a bigger deposit or to have greater equity in your house, if you are remortgaging,

nobody knows what is going to happen to house prices. If they plummet, lenders want more security, so they are not exposed too much and you have a very small deposit, 

if you can get 10% deposit you will find mortgage rates cheaper,

so its worth waiting , to see what happens to house prices. There's a possibilty they will come down, (not a prediction), so you may be a lot better off waiting a year, build up to 10% deposit, so your mortgage will be cheaper and house prices might be cheaper.

He finishes off by saying he can't tell her what to do, but he would not be in a rush to be buying right now...

Interesting. Martin Lewis is well known and respected with the general public, so I am guessing what he says is important for  sentiment regarding the housing market. Mabye that alone, could put many off buying now, who can't really afford it. (or at least encouraging lower more realistic offers). 

 

The ‘wait and see’ is good advice. The key though is in order to ‘see’ then you need to ‘watch’ and my son is now looking to buy and watching is what he will do. 

The thing is the price he pays will reflect sentiment at the time so he is looking now....if the pre corona price was £210k (decent 3 bed semi) with a ‘farrow and ball version at £245k, then he is hoping for maybe £140/£145k. I agree that matches affordability and is about 2003 levels. 

So if he finds a motivated seller and an ideal ‘forever home’ which will be a nice 3 bed semi near us then he will build in ‘potential future falls’ and offer what he thinks it will be worth. They can take it or leave it.....prices certainly won’t be stronger next year so he can wait. 

Guess I am saying he will wait a year or so...but will watch out for something (potentially even off market) during that time just in case. 

[winkie]

12 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

There must be some correlation between value and affordability though, in relation to average wages. My wife and I take home 55k and have a really nice forever home that is worth a mere 250k (currently!). I suppose we are lucky that geographically we don’t need to spend double or treble that figure for the same house in the centre of Edinrbugh or a commuter belt outside London.

When I consider friends, family and colleagues, I just don’t see anybody that’s in a precarious position either. 
 

With its far lower prices, I just don’t see the Scottish housing market being hit as hard. 

 

Nothing wrong with looking at things positively...... buy for the right reasons in the right place at the right time, nothing much wrong with that........ problems arise when wrong reasons say speculative reasons, wrong place and places can change, at the wrong time.?

[xxxx]

22 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52767058

 

We knew it was coming, but here is confirmation, 6 months mortgage holiday.

UK today, the put it off today  and pay tomorrow society.

So what next, a little more printing from the BOE, 1 year mortgage holidays, 30 year plus mortgages, another round of HTB?

None of it's going to work this time, but it's just so frustrating, there are other people on this Island besides heavily in debt mortgage holders you know

 

100% agree with this.

[danlee74]

https://www.premierpropertyeducation.co.uk/online-masterclass-27-05-20-nhp?mc_cid=8029a02260&mc_eid=46dcdf8e41

[Pmax2020]

5 hours ago, winkie said:

Nothing wrong with looking at things positively...... buy for the right reasons in the right place at the right time, nothing much wrong with that........ problems arise when wrong reasons say speculative reasons, wrong place and places can change, at the wrong time.?

In all honesty I’d love to see a crash as we have a good level of equity in our house and actually intended to trade up this summer.

Let me be the forums HPC Scottish correspondent. I’ve kept an eye on prices for many years and have some good ‘indicator’ properties I’m watching to test the market... 
 

The Scottish market seemed to be going from strength to strength earlier this year until this happened...

[Bluestone59]

9 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

 

These incidents are far from rare and go way back to 1985, but back then it was not nearly as bad and the anti English tended to be laughed at by the locals themselves. There was a great comedy back in the early 1990's called Absolutely that hit the nail on the head in how it sniggered at anti English rhetoric and made them look silly, Scottish comedians I might add. Orkney seems to be not too bad and Shetland even better, you get the feeling that some of them don't even consider themselves to be Scottish

'Absolutely', one of my favourite ever comedies. Sheen Canary, Stoneybridge town council, Callum Gilhooley, it's all flooding back. 

Talking to a Scot once about the fanatical nationalist with the UK map showing Scotland as huge with England a tiny blob below called "poofland".  We were both laughing about it when he said that sadly a few of his countrymen are not too far off that. 

Imo, apart from liars I reckon the next worst menace on the planet is folk who take themselves too seriously.

[MARTINX9]

I have just seen a house put back on rightmove today I was interested in - its in a semi rural part of London and has been under offer/SSTC and then returned to available at least four times now in the last year. No idea why unless it has structural issues that are only picked up post survey?