Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[winkie]

9 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

You could always try cooking your food before eating it. Apparently that works, I do it all the time.

Fine if purchased pre-cooked.......any infection risk is during the time before it is cooked.

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

BS

https://www.cruisecritic.co.uk/news/5097/

 

I presume you didn't read that then! 

[Grayphil]

4 minutes ago, winkie said:

Fine if purchased pre-cooked.......any infection risk is during the time before it is cooked.

Unfortunately not, the food will get blast chilled before packaging, that's also a time when it could get infected (when it gets pulled out) 

Best to cook at home and wash hands before and after (which every one should do anyway) 

[winkie]

10 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Unfortunately not, the food will get blast chilled before packaging, that's also a time when it could get infected (when it gets pulled out) 

Best to cook at home and wash hands before and after (which every one should do anyway) 

Never wash raw chicken:

https://www.bbcgoodfood.com/howto/guide/bbc-good-food-guide-handling-raw-chicken

[Riedquat]

10 hours ago, IMHAL said:

I think you will be right. In the absence of some other mysterious mechanism, increased contact will result in increased infections and deaths. As sure as night follows day.

All depends what the current mechanism for transmission is (or perhaps more accurately then whens and wheres of it). Information on that has been depressingly sparse, when trying to identify that should've been an early - and constant and ongoing - goal. Then you've got some idea of where restrictions are ridiculously excessive and where they're pointlessly lax, and on the latter can possibly ramp them up to levels that wouldn't be tolerable if applied everywhere.

[Peter Hun]

10 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

All depends what the current mechanism for transmission is (or perhaps more accurately then whens and wheres of it). Information on that has been depressingly sparse, when trying to identify that should've been an early - and constant and ongoing - goal. Then you've got some idea of where restrictions are ridiculously excessive and where they're pointlessly lax, and on the latter can possibly ramp them up to levels that wouldn't be tolerable if applied everywhere.

i agree, but when the science is politicised. its useless.

2 meter rule has to go because its costing too much money. Cannot use masks because the government failed to keep stock levels up and sold it all off.

[Grayphil]

16 minutes ago, winkie said:

Never wash raw chicken:

https://www.bbcgoodfood.com/howto/guide/bbc-good-food-guide-handling-raw-chicken

Its quite funny, of course i agree with all of this, however the BBC is also one of doom peddlers of chlorinated chicken in the USA.. But it recommends the use of an antibacterial spray. 

I go with chlorine, as its cheap and safe, but yes, not enough people are aware of the proper hygeine procedures when preparing food. 

[Grayphil]

4 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

i agree, but when the science is politicised. its useless.

2 meter rule has to go because its costing too much money. Cannot use masks because the government failed to keep stock levels up and sold it all off.

Oh bless. It's so refreshing to know that you are starting to accept it.. The offer still stands, we can now have a beer with the appropriate social distance of one metre, even I in my most optimistic thoughts didn't imagine one metre so quickly. 

I promise not to get to too excited and start frothing at the mouth(too much). I will even wear a mask and drink it thorough a hole and a straw. A time to celebrate surely

[dugsbody]

13 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Its quite funny, of course i agree with all of this, however the BBC is also one of doom peddlers of chlorinated chicken in the USA.. But it recommends the use of an antibacterial spray. 

Have you followed the chlorine washed chicken arguments closely?

 

[MancTom]

10 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

They are his colleagues, the article was over a month ago and if they say the wrong thing at the wrong time they will also be silenced, or if it's big enough, killed.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/merck-created-hit-list-to-destroy-neutralize-or-discredit-dissenting-doctors/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/chinese-doctor-Li-Wenliang-coronavirus.html

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/09/nhs-staff-forbidden-speaking-out-publicly-about-coronavirus

https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2020/may/free-speech-is-covids-latest-casualty-doctors-silenced-protests-censored-americans-treated-like-children

https://www.stevequayle.com/index.php?s=146

This happens, such as these examples from 1000s of miles away....The Panama Papers reporter was blown up or all 34 people who before testimony on Clinton died, what an incredible coincidence or WMDs that never were 1000s miles away.

When it comes to being potentially under ones own skin (medicine / disease), many people have a blind spot and much longer tolerance when it comes to being lied to.

what is it you think someone doesn't want us to know about covid?

[nightowl]

18 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Have you followed the chlorine washed chicken arguments closely?

 

It has its merits I guess but for the BBC chlorine chicken=USA=trump=trade deal=Brexit=change and for that's why they are latched onto the doom side of it.  I haven't yet seen a serious debate on its merits.

[zugzwang]

13 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

 

The only reason New Zealand 'got to zero' through lockdown was because the population is small, the population density is small and ... the big one .. it's incredibly isolated and didn't have a massive number of imported infections as of late March when it did its lockdown (by which time most of the rest of the developed World was already in lockdown).

Even then, infection has got back in through international travellers and they will face a non-stop threat of this until such time as a vaccine is developed or they choose to completely isolate themselves.

 

Elimination through locking down is not a viable option once the disease is endemic in your relatively large, densely populated country and definitely not possible once it is a pandemic and you are geographically close to other countries with relatively porous borders.  The Chinese claimed that they did so - lies, as is typical of them with all matters Coronavirus- and now they are facing a seeming unending series of heavy lockdowns as it pops up again (which they are of course blaming on 'foreigners').

 

 

Vietnam has a population of 97 million and a 750 mile border with China. Vietnam has had zero C-19 deaths and no new incidences of infection for two months. Vietnam followed the WHO advice to test, trace and isolate in February. Vietnam has a culture of mask wearing etc.

Since declaring victory over the disease New Zealand has had a handful of cases brought into the country by overseas travellers. Discrete, isolated and easily contained. All of the infected are now in quarantine and there's no evidence of community transmission.

China has had to reimpose a partial lockdown on parts of the capital only. The majority of the country is unaffected. Unlike New Zealand this appears to be a genuine second wave. Imported chicken from the US may very well be the cause of the outbreak in a wholesale food market.

[msi]

6 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Imported chicken from the US may very well be the cause of the outbreak in a wholesale food market.

But our special Brexit imported Chicken is washed with Sunny Uplands water, free from Project Fear.

[Grayphil]

48 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Have you followed the chlorine washed chicken arguments closely?

 

To be honest not much recently, although I know certain large cruise ships use, it. And all vegetables and fruits are prepped in it. 

[nightowl]

24 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Vietnam has a population of 97 million and a 750 mile border with China. Vietnam has had zero C-19 deaths and no new incidences of infection for two months. Vietnam followed the WHO advice to test, trace and isolate in February. Vietnam has a culture of mask wearing etc.

Curious you mention Vietnam has a face wearing culture...but then hasn't China also? Presumably NZ hasnt that culture? 

What Im getting at is there's a more significant reason for their situations.

[dugsbody]

1 minute ago, Grayphil said:

To be honest not much recently, although I know certain large cruise ships use, it. And all vegetables and fruits are prepped in it. 

If you had followed closely you'd know that the real point of not wanting chlorine washed chicken is not because of health reasons but because it is necessary because their animal welfare standards are lower. We don't want to lower animal welfare standards.

This point has been repeated a lot and yet it seems one side are deaf and blind to it. You can make the point with a person and the next day they'll be back to the same arguments that chlorine washing is used on lettuce.

 

[Grayphil]

2 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

If you had followed closely you'd know that the real point of not wanting chlorine washed chicken is not because of health reasons but because it is necessary because their animal welfare standards are lower. We don't want to lower animal welfare standards.

This point has been repeated a lot and yet it seems one side are deaf and blind to it. You can make the point with a person and the next day they'll be back to the same arguments that chlorine washing is used on lettuce.

 

Ah OK, well you can of you want, choose higher welfare chicken if you choose. 

Honestly if I was that worried I'd go Vegan. Everyone of course agrees with your arguement, no one wants animals to suffer. But the price is what people look at more. 

You should have the choice, and you will still be able to buy higher welfare. But also give a choice to those who accept that the animal was bred to die anyway. 

If everyone cared the way you do, nobody would buy it, but I suspect that people will

 

[dugsbody]

3 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Ah OK, well you can of you want, choose higher welfare chicken if you choose. 

That isn't how animal welfare standards work. We don't say they're voluntary and some farmers in the UK can adhere to them if they choose and then people can choose to buy their produce.

It doesn't work like that, neither locally nor when we import globally.

We don't do it to give more choice, we do it because it is the right thing to do. It isn't perfect, so please don't use that fallacy, but better upward than downward.

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, Grayphil said:

Oh bless. It's so refreshing to know that you are starting to accept it.. The offer still stands, we can now have a beer with the appropriate social distance of one metre, even I in my most optimistic thoughts didn't imagine one metre so quickly. 

I promise not to get to too excited and start frothing at the mouth(too much). I will even wear a mask and drink it thorough a hole and a straw. A time to celebrate surely

Accept it? I'm mocking it. Removing social distancing (1m is the same as 1cm) will hasten the re-closing of pubs and restaurants for a second time. Celebrate it, I'll be WFH.

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, Grayphil said:

Oh bless. It's so refreshing to know that you are starting to accept it.. The offer still stands, we can now have a beer with the appropriate social distance of one metre, even I in my most optimistic thoughts didn't imagine one metre so quickly. 

I promise not to get to too excited and start frothing at the mouth(too much). I will even wear a mask and drink it thorough a hole and a straw. A time to celebrate surely

I'll put you down as a maybe then? 

[Grayphil]

12 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

That isn't how animal welfare standards work. We don't say they're voluntary and some farmers in the UK can adhere to them if they choose and then people can choose to buy their produce.

It doesn't work like that, neither locally nor when we import globally.

We don't do it to give more choice, we do it because it is the right thing to do. It isn't perfect, so please don't use that fallacy, but better upward than downward.

I think if we look at bacon that is widely eaten in the UK, id argue that no one really looks where it comes from, they look at the price. Not from Norway or Sweden, who have higher welfare, but higher prices. 

As u know half the eggs in UK are battery, seems at least half of the population dont seem to care, that's an example of choice that we are doing now. 

And in the US, every supermarket is required by law to offer higher welfare animal products in each catogory it sells. (so I'm led to beleive) 

Not saying its right or wrong, I personally am guilty of not looking, but that's because I grew up on a farm, and know exactly where my food comes from, how its killed, and I've no issues with butchering the meat for preparation myself.

However this is going way off topic! 

 

 

 

[zugzwang]

29 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Curious you mention Vietnam has a face wearing culture...but then hasn't China also? Presumably NZ hasnt that culture? 

What Im getting at is there's a more significant reason for their situations.

I'm sure that mask wearing in China helped slow the spread there as well.

Vietnam had 2/3 weeks grace while the epidemic was raging in Wuhan. Their approach to C-19 was to treat it like SARS not flu. Like Germany they have an excellent, decentralised healthcare system.

[dugsbody]

29 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

I think if we look at bacon that is widely eaten in the UK, id argue that no one really looks where it comes from, they look at the price. Not from Norway or Sweden, who have higher welfare, but higher prices. 

As u know half the eggs in UK are battery, seems at least half of the population dont seem to care, that's an example of choice that we are doing now. 

Well yes, that is exactly my point. 

People like me aren't arguing against chlorinated chicken for health reasons, we're arguing it because it lowers animal welfare standards, and once the chicken is on the shelves, labeled or not, most people aren't going to care. They'll just shop by price.

I just wish the other side of the argument could understand this, and if they don't care about lowering animal welfare standards, fine, but don't pretend it is about something else.

[Grayphil]

2 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Vietnam has a population of 97 million and a 750 mile border with China. Vietnam has had zero C-19 deaths and no new incidences of infection for two months. Vietnam followed the WHO advice to test, trace and isolate in February. Vietnam has a culture of mask wearing etc.

Since declaring victory over the disease New Zealand has had a handful of cases brought into the country by overseas travellers. Discrete, isolated and easily contained. All of the infected are now in quarantine and there's no evidence of community transmission.

China has had to reimpose a partial lockdown on parts of the capital only. The majority of the country is unaffected. Unlike New Zealand this appears to be a genuine second wave. Imported chicken from the US may very well be the cause of the outbreak in a wholesale food market.

I was just checking on how Vietnam managed, so everyone that had symptoms had their full travel itinery publilshed on social media. There's were penalties of jail for giving false information. Amd matched on their mobile phone details, if the apps that they all had to use. 

Can you imagine all the scandals that would come out. If everyone details got posted, and the routes shown on their mobile phones! Cwor there would be a few scandals coming out

[Grayphil]

2 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Vietnam has a population of 97 million and a 750 mile border with China. Vietnam has had zero C-19 deaths and no new incidences of infection for two months. Vietnam followed the WHO advice to test, trace and isolate in February. Vietnam has a culture of mask wearing etc.

Since declaring victory over the disease New Zealand has had a handful of cases brought into the country by overseas travellers. Discrete, isolated and easily contained. All of the infected are now in quarantine and there's no evidence of community transmission.

China has had to reimpose a partial lockdown on parts of the capital only. The majority of the country is unaffected. Unlike New Zealand this appears to be a genuine second wave. Imported chicken from the US may very well be the cause of the outbreak in a wholesale food market.

About the no evidence of community transmission but, I see they have had 2 cases every day for 5 days, i reckon that there will be a few more, let's remember it's new Zealand winter so better chances of spreading, (IMO) but we will see I guess