Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Clarky Cat]

7 minutes ago, anonguest said:

So....adjusted for the fact that they have 144 million population, makes it equivalent to about 470 deaths here in the UK.

A fraction of what we saw at our own peak earlier this year.

Not too bad considering only 35% fully vaxxed. 

Or.....as some of our conspiracy theorists here would insinuate, or even outright claim, maybe the 'low' death rate is precisely because they only have 35% fully vaxxed?  😉

Russia has massively underreported deaths - no reason to think this isn't ongoing. 660,000 excess deaths so far, so 0.45% of the entire population.

[zugzwang]

14 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

I won't bother answering that because I don't see that anything I said had to do with that in the first place.

The point I was refuting was that Britain was "accelerating away as the Sick Man of Europe". It clearly isn't - although I wouldn't claim it is doing great either.

 

Second worst in Europe after Hungary isn't much of a boast.

[winkie]

Why do people not wear masks, is it to make others both fearful of others and the virus..... therefore more might want to keep being vaccinated, good for pharma companies and shareholders?

[anonguest]

11 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

Russia has massively underreported deaths - no reason to think this isn't ongoing. 660,000 excess deaths so far, so 0.45% of the entire population.

Given that 0.45% ties in with the sort of sub-1% intrinsic mortality rate that many asert that Covid has, then....they could well be near to the end of their epidemic?

[Bruce Banner]

1 minute ago, winkie said:

Why do people not wear masks, is it to make others both fearful of others and the virus..... therefore more might want to keep being vaccinated, good for pharma companies and shareholders?

Because it's not currently a legal requirement.

[winkie]

Just now, Bruce Banner said:

Because it's not currently a legal requirement.

I wear one in shops and on the bus, all around few do, not because I am scared, I could be a healthy carrier and would hate to infect another........if we carry on and the NHS can no longer cope nobody wants to go back to bubbles......is that the ulterior motive?......madness.

[anonguest]

11 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Because it's not currently a legal requirement.

I've never let 'legal requirement' stop me from ignoring ridiculous rules and regs. 

 

[Bruce Banner]

3 minutes ago, anonguest said:

I've never let 'legal requirement' stop me from ignoring ridiculous rules and regs. 

 

Try not wearing a crash helmet and see how far you get before being stopped and fined.

[anonguest]

11 minutes ago, winkie said:

I wear one in shops and on the bus, all around few do, not because I am scared, I could be a healthy carrier and would hate to infect another........if we carry on and the NHS can no longer cope nobody wants to go back to bubbles......is that the ulterior motive?......madness.

You could be. Or you could, more likely, NOT be.

'Could' is not a sane basis for guiding us through the infinity of actions we take, consciously or unconsciously, day to day.

Heck. IF I had to work out all the possible permutations of what 'could' happen to me or what my actions might result in for ANY other people I come into contact with.....I'd be lucky IF I got out of bed before 4pm to start my day!

 

[winkie]

7 minutes ago, anonguest said:

You could be. Or you could, more likely, NOT be.

'Could' is not a sane basis for guiding us through the infinity of actions we take, consciously or unconsciously, day to day.

Heck. IF I had to work out all the possible permutations of what 'could' happen to me or what my actions might result in for ANY other people I come into contact with.....I'd be lucky IF I got out of bed before 4pm to start my day!

 

Only takes a few unknowingly to infect a few, out of the few one could die........I know people who have been double jabbed who have been infected, few days before they realised they had it, like a mild flu and bit rough for a few days....if not wearing a mask on the bus or train they unknowingly might have infected a few without knowing....

[Lord D'arcy Pew]

16 minutes ago, winkie said:

Why do people not wear masks

Is it for the same reason they don't wear crash helmets when driving cars?

 

[winkie]

Just now, Lord D'arcy Pew said:

Is it for the same reason they don't wear crash helmets when driving cars?

 

Nobody is saying it should continue forever.......just throughout the winter.......if we can have complete freedom for a few months but only wear a face covering inside.......maybe the government do not say it is because they know many will ignore it, just like they have ignored many CoVid guidelines that they have implemented for us to abide by......many rules made though if money to be made from it.

Double protected.....

[GeneCernan]

I would be very surprised if a significant number of those who have chosen not to be vaccinated will change their minds any time soon without coercion.

They will use vaccine passports for that coercion.

This obsession with getting needles into arms has never, ever, sat comfortably with me. If these vaccines are so good then why is an unvaccinated person any danger to a vaccinated one? 

[Drat]

1 minute ago, GeneCernan said:

I would be very surprised if a significant number of those who have chosen not to be vaccinated will change their minds any time soon without coercion.

They will use vaccine passports for that coercion.

This obsession with getting needles into arms has never, ever, sat comfortably with me. If these vaccines are so good then why is an unvaccinated person any danger to a vaccinated one? 

Because if lot's of un-vaccinated people are lying in hospital in intensive care there might not be enough resource to treat that vaccinated person who is involved in a car crash, or who needs treatment for cancer?

And for clarity:

Does that mean we should force vaccinate people? No

Does that mean the government should try and persuade un-vaccinated to get vaccinated? Yes

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

37 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Second worst in Europe after Hungary isn't much of a boast.

There are actually over 10 European countries ahead of the UK on deaths/million people statistic, including Italy and Belgium if you bother to look.

There are probably about 20 in total, because there are a few that have fairly suspect excess deaths figures. Some of these are microstates though, which are not really relevant to count.

[anonguest]

27 minutes ago, winkie said:

Nobody is saying it should continue forever.......just throughout the winter.......

Until the next winter, and the winter after that. And then the summer and then the.....

I don't want to live in masked future. Period.

27 minutes ago, winkie said:

if we can have complete freedom for a few months but only wear a face covering inside.......maybe the government do not say it is because they know many will ignore it, just like they have ignored many CoVid guidelines that they have implemented for us to abide by......many rules made though if money to be made from it.

Double protected.....

Do you wear two condoms as well? Or have the wife/gf take measures too in addition to you? Double protection!

Like everything else in life. There is a point of diminishing returns. Not shaking hands/making physical contact and frequent handwashing probably do 95+% of the risk reduction. Masks are, for the most part, almost pure theatre.

Edited October 21, 2021 by anonguest

[Bruce Banner]

15 minutes ago, Drat said:

Because if lot's of un-vaccinated people are lying in hospital in intensive care there might not be enough resource to treat that vaccinated person who is involved in a car crash, or who needs treatment for cancer?

And for clarity:

Does that mean we should force vaccinate people? No

Does that mean the government should try and persuade un-vaccinated to get vaccinated? Yes

By encouraging their friends and relatives to pressurise them into submission by telling them it's their civic duty and if Christmas is cancelled it will be their fault?

[anonguest]

Just now, Drat said:

Because if lot's of un-vaccinated people are lying in hospital in intensive care there might not be enough resource to treat that vaccinated person who is involved in a car crash, or who needs treatment for cancer?

And for clarity:

Does that mean we should force vaccinate people? No

Does that mean the government should try and persuade un-vaccinated to get vaccinated? Yes

And when the persuasion hasn't worked??? And, as you melodramatically suggest will happen, there aren't enough beds for car crash and cancer victims, etc.

Then what?

Edited October 21, 2021 by anonguest

[Bruce Banner]

1 hour ago, anonguest said:

And when the persuasion hasn't worked??? And, as you melodramatically suggest will happen, there aren't enough beds for car crash and cancer victims, etc.

Then what?

One option, to maintain state authority, would be compulsion. But if I were to be dragged out of my house, taken to a suitable place of inoculation and there subjected to state sanctioned penetrative assault, I don't know what I would do.... well actually I've got a pretty good idea.

Edited October 21, 2021 by Bruce Banner

[Bruce Banner]

That Blair is a slimy toad..... 

COVID-19: Vaccine booster rollout should be at '500,000 a day' says Tony Blair | UK News | Sky News

[zugzwang]

17 hours ago, anonguest said:

I see you're still quoting and unquestioningly believing China, their official stats and anything they say, to support your various stances/arguments.  You're a gullible fool to do so.

 

You need to corroborate those stats independently, of course, as you would with any govt.

The Chinese are very serious about eliminating Covid-19.

https://www.economist.com/china/2021/10/16/how-long-can-chinas-zero-covid-policy-last

FROM THE outside, it resembles an army base, an expanse the size of 45 football pitches filled with rows of austere, grey, three-storey buildings. The facility (pictured) on the outskirts of the southern city of Guangzhou is China’s first purpose-built quarantine centre for people arriving from abroad. Soon guests will begin moving in to its more than 5,000 rooms. For at least two weeks, whether fully vaccinated or not, they will live in isolation, their food brought to them by robots.

Since the early days of the covid-19 pandemic, China’s aim has been to eliminate the coronavirus entirely from within the mainland’s borders. Hong Kong and Macau have similar strategies. But even as the handful of other countries with “zero-covid” policies, including Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, move to relax them, China is holding out.

The point of Guangzhou’s $260m facility is to make it even harder for the virus to enter the country, by keeping people quarantined away from densely populated areas. People flying into the city from outside the mainland will be whisked there directly, instead of to normal hotels, for at least two weeks of confinement and frequent testing. Even the medical staff may not leave the premises. After working there for four weeks, they must do a week of quarantine and then, after returning home, spend another two weeks in isolation.

Chinese officials describe the complex as the latest example of “China speed”: it took just three months to build. Another dedicated quarantine centre (unlike Guangzhou’s, not built from scratch) is also due to open soon in the nearby city of Dongguan. It will have 2,000 beds. Officials have ordered cities elsewhere to follow suit. In September, at a training session for medical staff in Guangzhou’s facility, an official tried to fire them up with a well-known term used by Mao Zedong to describe a relentless, long-lasting campaign to wear down the enemy with guerrilla attacks. It would be a “protracted war” against the virus, he said. “It can only end when the disease is no longer around.”

[Drat]

1 hour ago, anonguest said:

And when the persuasion hasn't worked??? And, as you melodramatically suggest will happen, there aren't enough beds for car crash and cancer victims, etc.

Then what?

So are you saying we shouldn't take the first soft approach, because if it doesn't work something worse will have to come next?  So you answer is what, not do anything at all and just live the consequences?

[anonguest]

9 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

 

You need to corroborate those stats independently, of course, as you would with any govt.

The Chinese are very serious about eliminating Covid-19.

https://www.economist.com/china/2021/10/16/how-long-can-chinas-zero-covid-policy-last

FROM THE outside, it resembles an army base, an expanse the size of 45 football pitches filled with rows of austere, grey, three-storey buildings. The facility (pictured) on the outskirts of the southern city of Guangzhou is China’s first purpose-built quarantine centre for people arriving from abroad. Soon guests will begin moving in to its more than 5,000 rooms. For at least two weeks, whether fully vaccinated or not, they will live in isolation, their food brought to them by robots.

Since the early days of the covid-19 pandemic, China’s aim has been to eliminate the coronavirus entirely from within the mainland’s borders. Hong Kong and Macau have similar strategies. But even as the handful of other countries with “zero-covid” policies, including Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, move to relax them, China is holding out.

The point of Guangzhou’s $260m facility is to make it even harder for the virus to enter the country, by keeping people quarantined away from densely populated areas. People flying into the city from outside the mainland will be whisked there directly, instead of to normal hotels, for at least two weeks of confinement and frequent testing. Even the medical staff may not leave the premises. After working there for four weeks, they must do a week of quarantine and then, after returning home, spend another two weeks in isolation.

Chinese officials describe the complex as the latest example of “China speed”: it took just three months to build. Another dedicated quarantine centre (unlike Guangzhou’s, not built from scratch) is also due to open soon in the nearby city of Dongguan. It will have 2,000 beds. Officials have ordered cities elsewhere to follow suit. In September, at a training session for medical staff in Guangzhou’s facility, an official tried to fire them up with a well-known term used by Mao Zedong to describe a relentless, long-lasting campaign to wear down the enemy with guerrilla attacks. It would be a “protracted war” against the virus, he said. “It can only end when the disease is no longer around.”

The Chinese are very serious about eliminating lots of things!  They (the CCP specifically) are just about the last people I look to as role models for almost anything.

The ends do not always justify the means. I think you have lost sight of that old nugget of wisdom.

Edited October 21, 2021 by anonguest

[anonguest]

14 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

FROM THE outside, it resembles an army base, an expanse the size of 45 football pitches filled with rows of austere, grey, three-storey buildings. The facility (pictured) on the outskirts of the southern city of Guangzhou is China’s first purpose-built quarantine centre for people arriving from abroad. Soon guests will begin moving in to its more than 5,000 rooms. For at least two weeks, whether fully vaccinated or not, they will live in isolation, their food brought to them by robots.

'Guests' ??!  That really is taking the p*ss!  More so given that it's in a Western publication and not a Chinese mouthpiece rag.

 

Edited October 21, 2021 by anonguest

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

10 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Guests ?!  That really is taking the p*ss!  More so given that it's in a Western publication and not a Chinese mouthpiece rag.

 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

Same publication shows a 13,000% discrepancy between Chinese official covid deaths and excess deaths.

Conclusion ? Zero covid can work, provided you are prepared to claim you are doing it and ignore everyone that dies of it.