What/Who will collapse first in 2020?

[Confusion of VIs]

21 minutes ago, longgone said:

What are facts ? Ultimately someone else's decisions.

Will you be flying on the Boeing max just because the faa say it's safe. Even though we all know its krap.

 

It's a wonder you dare to get out of bed in the morning. 

I wouldn't fly on a max by choice but wouldn't be overly concerned if I found myself on one. If there still is an additional risk it will be a small one. 

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, Houdini said:

I know this thread has been sidetracked by a Tesla discussion but I'm surprised no one has suggested Travelex yet 

There is little chance they will legally survive this screw up https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51017852

Although I am impressed by the use of GDPR breaches as an excuse to increase the ransom fee.

Makes a change from them holding travelers to ransom.

Not long ago I noticed they were offering 0.92Euro for a £1 at Gatwick. 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Confusion of VIs

[NuBrit]

On 05/01/2020 at 09:57, Pop321 said:

Warren Buffet invested in what he saw....and retail is really interesting.

I see streets with 4/5 Italian Restaurants which are in the main empty even during the Christmas holidays. (Caveat is one evening they were ALL crammed...didn’t understand why but one even had a queue). 

McDonalds heaving with 12 to 16 year old kids all the time. Some ordering (and paying for) Milkshakes etc and not even going to pick them up. 

Old Odeon cinema empty at £6 a seat. Everyman heaving at £14 a seat but a better seat and chips brought to your chair. Again young kids with apparently money to burn  

Debenhams...yep empty.
 
M&S...busy. Full of rubbish but busy. Food hall full of mad old people fighting for the last bit of salmon. 

Electric cars? They have a place but my experience has been people buying really neat, tidy but small £400 2006 relatively cheap to run petrol cars. (Eg Clio’s, 106, etc) and limiting mileage for 3/4 thousand a year. If the job needs 60k miles...they don’t take it. My car experience is limited though  

There has been an explosion of ‘beauty shops’ ie hairdressers, nail shops and all seem really busy. 

Coffee shops always busy. Some independent ones very successful...others with same model...very unsuccessful. Location and hipster feel very important. But chains (Costa, Neros and Starbucks) all busy. Indeed it seems people go to town for the coffee not the shops? 

We all have different experiences So it’s good to share. My prediction of doom is for:

Debenhams,
HMV,

Homebase  

Italian restaurants but those local independent ones first, then Pizza Express...(despite hipsters pretending to support local things. Little Tarquin and Gwendolyn always get their way) 

Happy 2020. I am usually very wrong with predictions and certainly don’t put my money where my mouth is ??

 

This is very true. Certain concepts are doing very well, others are getting crushed. Image is everything and substance counts for little on the high street.

[regprentice]

9 hours ago, Houdini said:

I know this thread has been sidetracked by a Tesla discussion but I'm surprised no one has suggested Travelex yet 

There is little chance they will legally survive this screw up https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51017852

Although I am impressed by the use of GDPR breaches as an excuse to increase the ransom fee.

No idea why they just don't pay the 3mn (6mn now?). 

I've read a few articles suggesting that American local government is getting hit with ransom ware left right and centre. And if you have cyber insurance it typically pays the ransom for you. 

Travelex had it coming. According to reports they were running a version of Windows server that hadn't been supported by Microsoft for 5 years, the some settings on their website were left open and they hadn't kept up to date with patches from their it suppliers. The current assumption is that the attack was through a VPN vulnerability for which Travelex were given a fix in April 2019 but hadn't applied the fix. 

Incidentally they also offshored a large number of jobs from Peterborough to India in 2017. Purely unrelated I'm sure. 

[ebull]

Quote

 

Critics have questioned the Iranian account, calling it the 'fastest investigation in aviation history' - and said the Boeing 737 has a largely outstanding safety record with no recent history of an engine failure of this kind.

...

'The plane was manufactured in 2016, it was received by the airline directly from the (Boeing) factory,' a Ukrainian International Airlines statement said. 

'The plane underwent its last planned technical maintenance on January 6, 2020.' 

An airline official said: 'Given the complexity of the flight there was a reinforced crew on this flight.

'Given the experience of the crew the chance of their making a mistake is minimal.' 

...

Introduced in the late 1990s, it is an older model than the Boeing 737 MAX, which has been grounded for nearly 10 months following two deadly crashes.

A number of 737-800 aircraft have been involved in deadly accidents over the years.

In March 2016, a Flydubai 737-800 from Dubai crashed while trying to land at Rostov-on-Don airport in Russia, killing 62 on board. 

Another 737-800 flight from Dubai, operated by Air India Express, crashed in May 2010 while trying to land in Mangalore, India, killing more than 150 onboard. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7863359/Ukrainian-passenger-plane-carrying-180-people-crashes-near-Tehran-local-media.html

Pretty sure folk will avoid flying in anything connected to Iran if this turns out to be a bomb.

If it's more 737 deaths, everything will carry on as normal. How many would it take?

Picture paints a thousand words [ Rescue workers in protective suits gather up the bodies of passengers who were killed in the Boeing 737 crash in Iran today ]

[zugzwang]

12 minutes ago, ebull said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7863359/Ukrainian-passenger-plane-carrying-180-people-crashes-near-Tehran-local-media.html

 

Pretty sure folk will avoid flying in anything connected to Iran if this turns out to be a bomb.

If it's more 737 deaths, everything will carry on as normal. How many would it take?

Picture paints a thousand words [ Rescue workers in protective suits gather up the bodies of passengers who were killed in the Boeing 737 crash in Iran today ]

Improbable for the cause to be unrelated to the on-going military operation. An accidental missile strike or drone strike than a bomb, I reckon.

 

[GregBowman]

16 hours ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

In terms of the nav - probably better that this is *not* made by the automaker (example: tesla use a revised version of google maps) ... and then those cars that support carplay etc  (interestingly, Tesla doesn't currently) ... it's all about extensibility.

That’s my point all my cars have Apple car play that could be a pointer to how the new wave will be put together - electronic giants might be in a better place to develop the tech required for autonomous and electric vehicles than existing manufacturers 

Tesla wasn’t a car maker so had a clean sheet but now it is because of its success - interestingly how Tesla has now gone down the traditional car makers route for now on nav

[GregBowman]

17 hours ago, zugzwang said:

AML shares? That's brave!

Frigging stupid and caught up in the hubris  they were punted hard to owners and Aston Martin owners club members - almost boiler room style - my Boeing shares have done better ?

[Houdini]

On 05/01/2020 at 09:57, Pop321 said:

Old Odeon cinema empty at £6 a seat. Everyman heaving at £14 a seat but a better seat and chips brought to your chair. Again young kids with apparently money to burn  

 

Our local Odeon (which was a grade a dump even at £3 and you just went to the Vue which was a £5) has just been done up - as an Odeon Luxe the seats are now brilliant. So expect yours to go the same way.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Houdini

[GregBowman]

24 minutes ago, Houdini said:

Our local Odeon (which was a grade a dump even at £3 and you just went to the Vue which was a £5) has just been done up - as an Odeon Luxe the seats are now brilliant. So expect yours to go the same way.

Not sure if they are all the same but the luxe at Swiss Cottage has big recliner seats in pairs well spaced so even if there is some goon who looks at their phone not so distracting though to be fair big notices before the film now and my observation is at the higher prices people less tolerant which is a good thing 

[Houdini]

12 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Not sure if they are all the same but the luxe at Swiss Cottage has big recliner seats in pairs well spaced so even if there is some goon who looks at their phone not so distracting though to be fair big notices before the film now and my observation is at the higher prices people less tolerant which is a good thing 

The seats I think are the same but it's over 2 years since I last went to an odeon elsewhere (Haymarket to kill time with one of my children while the other one did something else).

What is interesting is that the Odeon have removed probably 600 seats from screen 1 to make a cinema that now has 180 seats max.

[GregBowman]

16 minutes ago, Houdini said:

The seats I think are the same but it's over 2 years since I last went to an odeon elsewhere (Haymarket to kill time with one of my children while the other one did something else).

What is interesting is that the Odeon have removed probably 600 seats from screen 1 to make a cinema that now has 180 seats max.

Same at Swiss Cottage - it would seem to me by our experience and how busy they seem to be when I go there that the moving upmarket strategy works - don’t mind paying £30 a couple every month or so for decent surroundings to watch a top film 

At Swiss Cottage screen 1 is also an Imax great for the right type of film - saw Ford Ferrari there end of last year with the Dolby sound really great experience 

[ebull]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Improbable for the cause to be unrelated to the on-going military operation. An accidental missile strike or drone strike than a bomb, I reckon.

 

I agree, that's the most likely but the point I made is unconnected to the actual cause of this tragedy.

IF it's looking like Iran did it deliberately, everyone will avoid them like the plague ... sensible logical human reaction.

IF its another newish boeing tech failure, no-one will change their behaviour.

How many accidents until the flying public would decide anything newish regulated by FAA is best avoided?

Perhaps the question should be how much media indoctrination? Does it still work that way in the SM age?

[winkie]

Another terrible tragedy, just goes to show how vulnerable we all are going about our daily business peacefully....could a passenger plane be mistaken for a missile?

[Aidan Ap Word]

3 hours ago, GregBowman said:

That’s my point all my cars have Apple car play that could be a pointer to how the new wave will be put together - electronic giants might be in a better place to develop the tech required for autonomous and electric vehicles than existing manufacturers 

Tesla wasn’t a car maker so had a clean sheet but now it is because of its success - interestingly how Tesla has now gone down the traditional car makers route for now on nav

Not the traditional route at all. Google-hosted, Google-specialised, online (off-device) service for augmenting the road data itself that  comes through an OTA update so that nav is consistent even during network unavailablity/outage.

Traditional nav is local storage for maps using a network-less local app

[Aidan Ap Word]

16 hours ago, longgone said:

What are facts ? Ultimately someone else's decisions.

Will you be flying on the Boeing max just because the faa say it's safe. Even though we all know its krap.

 

You are kidding right?

Gravity is a fact. I can't decide to ignore it or not.

Billions of miles driven with precise data on accident and fire rates -> this data is precise (and more complete than almost any other automaker)

 

Quote

 

Not Bs at all.

Water should not be used on any lithium fire because pouring water on a lithium battery fire can make it more difficult to extinguish it because of the reduction of lithium in water, which leads to the release of hydrogen, which is highly flammable; the potential of reigniting a fire is much greater when using water

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-best-way-to-put-out-an-lithium-ion-battery-fire-in-an-electronic-device

 

Yes, that's right this is not BS at all, lithium ion fires are real, as are in-battery heat runaways.

But a fact too is how often they actually occur (per mile driven, or per unit produced and sold) in Tesla vehicles.

Now if the legacy automaker could show rates of incidents anywhere near as low as this (in proportional terms, in terms of numbers of cars on road and numbers of miles driven) then you might have a leg to stand on in this discussion. And then there is the fact that petroleum is flammable. And, yes diesel is more stable, but it still blows up if it gets hot enough.

[longgone]

31 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

You are kidding right?

Gravity is a fact. I can't decide to ignore it or not.

Billions of miles driven with precise data on accident and fire rates -> this data is precise (and more complete than almost any other automaker)

 

Yes, that's right this is not BS at all, lithium ion fires are real, as are in-battery heat runaways.

But a fact too is how often they actually occur (per mile driven, or per unit produced and sold) in Tesla vehicles.

Now if the legacy automaker could show rates of incidents anywhere near as low as this (in proportional terms, in terms of numbers of cars on road and numbers of miles driven) then you might have a leg to stand on in this discussion. And then there is the fact that petroleum is flammable. And, yes diesel is more stable, but it still blows up if it gets hot enough.

kidding ? correct gravity is a fact hence why i will not trust the decision of an accountant designing a plane over an engineer to fit his spreadsheet. 

you are welcome to spend your money where ever you want.  i see Tesla as the delorean of the future.  They have their fans because the other manufactures are lazy but they are starting to take note now. once they get going tesla will be over.  

ice already have a substantial dealer network which Tesla does not. Musk has done well though to push the market along. 

lithium is old hat we need new battery tech if not for the unstoppable fires. 

 

[PeanutButter]

I’d like a Tesla. They look cool. There’s a few in my area and I always find myself staring.

Haven’t seen any on fire.

[Aidan Ap Word]

2 hours ago, longgone said:

 decision of an accountant designing a plane over an engineer to fit his spreadsheet.

[...]

you are welcome to spend your money where ever you want.  i see Tesla as the delorean of the future.  They have their fans because the other manufactures are lazy but they are starting to take note now. once they get going tesla will be over.  

ice already have a substantial dealer network which Tesla does not. Musk has done well though to push the market along. 

Dolorean - disputed sales figures but are in the order of magnitude of 10k. Tesla make and - for themselves - sell that many in 2 weeks (or less).

ICE have a substantial dealer network, which Tesla does not - and this is how Tesla is one of the many reasons for their success (meaning: a significant reason why they have done so far). So coming back to the "Tesla will be dead & gone within 11.5 months" ... this is yet more ridiculous - exactly because they don't have a set of middle-men sniffing at the crumbs and encouraging the manufacturer to build in obsolescence.

Dealerships is one of the many things holding legacy automakers ("ICE" manufacturers) back from evolving (eg: Audi dealers and how much you have to squeeze them to sell you an EV). The dealerships have 0 interest in selling you a device that doesn't include a servicign income stream for them.

Oh, and BTW: Musk is not an accountant. Neither is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_von_Holzhausen/.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Aidan Ap Word
For clarity on why Tesla's lack of dealerships is a contributor to their success.

[Pop321]

6 hours ago, Houdini said:

Our local Odeon (which was a grade a dump even at £3 and you just went to the Vue which was a £5) has just been done up - as an Odeon Luxe the seats are now brilliant. So expect yours to go the same way.

It’s an iconic building too. So I hope so. 

I went to the odeon in Bayswater many years ago. Expensive but brilliantly set up with only a handful of seats. Definitely a treat but worth it.

[GregBowman]

4 hours ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Not the traditional route at all. Google-hosted, Google-specialised, online (off-device) service for augmenting the road data itself that  comes through an OTA update so that nav is consistent even during network unavailablity/outage.

Traditional nav is local storage for maps using a network-less local app

I stand corrected 

[longgone]

2 hours ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Dolorean - disputed sales figures but are in the order of magnitude of 10k. Tesla make and - for themselves - sell that many in 2 weeks (or less).

ICE have a substantial dealer network, which Tesla does not - and this is how Tesla is one of the many reasons for their success (meaning: a significant reason why they have done so far). So coming back to the "Tesla will be dead & gone within 11.5 months" ... this is yet more ridiculous - exactly because they don't have a set of middle-men sniffing at the crumbs and encouraging the manufacturer to build in obsolescence.

Dealerships is one of the many things holding legacy automakers ("ICE" manufacturers) back from evolving (eg: Audi dealers and how much you have to squeeze them to sell you an EV). The dealerships have 0 interest in selling you a device that doesn't include a servicign income stream for them.

Oh, and BTW: Musk is not an accountant. Neither is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_von_Holzhausen/.

i never said they would be dead under a year i said long term they have no future. more cars = more things to go wrong they will need a decent dealer network to cover the millions of cars sold if you say they will progress as expected. 

why do all the ev owners seem to think because there is no engine in it nothing fails.  ??  most faults are non power plant related they will still need fixing.  aircon brakes infortainment body issues electrical modules etc etc.  

i never said musk was a bean counter either you referred to gravity i assume referencing  boeing and its flying bodge up.  The bean counters decided that one not engineers.   

[Si1]

13 minutes ago, longgone said:

i never said they would be dead under a year i said long term they have no future. more cars = more things to go wrong they will need a decent dealer network to cover the millions of cars sold if you say they will progress as expected. 

why do all the ev owners seem to think because there is no engine in it nothing fails.  ??  most faults are non power plant related they will still need fixing.  aircon brakes infortainment body issues electrical modules etc etc.  

i never said musk was a bean counter either you referred to gravity i assume referencing  boeing and its flying bodge up.  The bean counters decided that one not engineers.   

https://electrek.co/2019/10/21/tesla-model-3-100000-miles/amp/

He said:

“For maintenance and repairs, this is my favorite part. If I was not beating the car to death, all I would have had serviced is tires. I’m averaging 25,000 miles per set when properly rotated.”

As for the repairs due to the “beatings”, it’s nothing too crazy.

Driessen told Electrek about the repairs:

“Other than tires, I drove the car through a valley stream and had to get a control arm replaced afterward. I also was out on the Bonneville Salt Flats when the winds were high speed. They slammed my door to its limit and shattered a piece inside of the hinge.”

He said it ended up costing less than $500 to replace those parts.

Another popular question for longtime Tesla owners, or in Driessen’s case, a Tesla owner who managed to put a lot of mileage on his car in a short period of time, is “how does the battery pack hold up?”

He said that he now gets a max range of 302-308 miles, which is about a 2.5% loss on his original 310 miles of rated range when he bought the vehicle.

[longgone]

2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

https://electrek.co/2019/10/21/tesla-model-3-100000-miles/amp/

He said:

“For maintenance and repairs, this is my favorite part. If I was not beating the car to death, all I would have had serviced is tires. I’m averaging 25,000 miles per set when properly rotated.”

As for the repairs due to the “beatings”, it’s nothing too crazy.

Driessen told Electrek about the repairs:

“Other than tires, I drove the car through a valley stream and had to get a control arm replaced afterward. I also was out on the Bonneville Salt Flats when the winds were high speed. They slammed my door to its limit and shattered a piece inside of the hinge.”

He said it ended up costing less than $500 to replace those parts.

Another popular question for longtime Tesla owners, or in Driessen’s case, a Tesla owner who managed to put a lot of mileage on his car in a short period of time, is “how does the battery pack hold up?”

He said that he now gets a max range of 302-308 miles, which is about a 2.5% loss on his original 310 miles of rated range when he bought the vehicle.

age kills bits of cars off not miles ?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

This is an interesting chart showing the S&P Price to Earning ratios. 

If you look closely, we are right now at the third highest it's been in the last 100 years. Whilst 2000 (Dotcom) and the Great Crash 1929 had much higher PE ratios, a lot of those peaks is down to earnings collapses - we will get similar rises in PE if profits fall by 70%, which obviously doesn't require such a big fall in revenues due to the way business costs work.