Biggest annual drop in car sales since 2009

[Aidan Ap Word]

2 minutes ago, kzb said:

A Fiesta Ecoboost has a range of c. 430 miles and it will do 125 mph.  (Not both at once obviously.)

A Tesla in Poland emits 170g CO2/km.  If all cars in Poland were Teslas, you would save  70% of CO2 emissions by replacing them all with Fiestas.

(not including the greater CO2 cost of Tesla manufacture and the CO2 emissions of the fuel for the Fiesta).

 

That is more a statement on the power generation in Poland than anything else.

And the population of Poland is 0.5% of the population of the world. And what distance the Polish drive as a proportion of the miles driven across the world (thinking the USofA here!) ... ?

Try something a little more statistically relevant?

[Confusion of VIs]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

Why not?  We are all expected to make sacrifices for climate change. 

Why should a German or a Polish person not have an ICE vehicle that beats an EV in reducing CO2 emissions?

Because that's not moving on from where we are today and your figures don't take account of the extended life of an EV, that the electricity supply is becoming increasingly decarbonised, and the desire to have cleaner air.

 

 

 

[Aidan Ap Word]

6 minutes ago, kzb said:

Why not?  We are all expected to make sacrifices for climate change. 

Why should a German or a Polish person not have an ICE vehicle that beats an EV in reducing CO2 emissions?

Because, over time, that ICE vehicle doesn't have a hope of matching the environmental credentials of an EV in any country with anything remotely trending towards environmentally responsible energy capture.

The Germans and the Polish - if they care about the environment at all - will drive towards green eneergy because a very big proportion of energy is used in manufacture (and not just that used in cars).

And if you wish to be all "comrade" about it ... then yeah .. we shouldn't be driving around at all.

So trying to come back to the origins of this thread anyway:

*globally* people don't want to drive ICE cars anymore because they are fianlly waking up to:

1. over time the EV gets environmentally a better plan (even if it is only currently marginal, and that is only in exceptional countries)
2. an EV is more convenient
3. an EV is pretty close to the same cost over 4 years and it is getting better over time
4. an EV is more fun to drive
5. an EV is frequently safer (partly because it is just a newer car, and partly because the endign in the front is a horrible thing to have in the way in an accident)
6. an EV doesn't smell
7. an EV is more practical (esp in terms of internal space)
8. an EV invovles less maintenance (which is just a hassle)

... and (possibly most importantly) people just don't want to drive any more.

And, at the very centre of it, and agreeing that the ERV numbers are still proportionately small ... the numbers at the tills are clear ... EV sales are up, ICE sales are (hugely) down.

[kzb]

3 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

That is more a statement on the power generation in Poland than anything else.

And the population of Poland is 0.5% of the population of the world. And what distance the Polish drive as a proportion of the miles driven across the world (thinking the USofA here!) ... ?

Try something a little more statistically relevant?

Poland was an example to make people think.

It's a very long calculation to do it for the whole world.

However, UK electricity is lower CO2 than most.  China is 2.2X greater CO2/kWh and so a Tesla in China has greater CO2 emissions than a Fiesta.

USA 1.55X greater so a Fiesta is only marginally worse than a Tesla in USA.  Certainly the Tesla would take ages to pay back, if it ever did.

[kzb]

5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Because that's not moving on from where we are today and your figures don't take account of the extended life of an EV, that the electricity supply is becoming increasingly decarbonised, and the desire to have cleaner air.

The fact remains, if you give a German or a Polish person a Tesla to replace their Fiesta you will INCREASE CO2 emissions !

[longgone]

2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There will be a shortage of second hand EVs for many years to come, so buying one now makes great financial sense. In 3 yrs time your £40k EV will be worth a lot more than the equivalent ICE, so why wouldn't you buy one. 

However, the biggest reason for buying one now is that they are so much better to drive than an ICE and when you get to where you are going there are new and empty EV only parking spaces. 

Yes they are very green and getting even greener, see my post above. 

What has Tesla cutting down trees that were grown for paper production to build a factory got to do with anything. 

 

 Because I would not pay 40k for any car unless I could sell it for more than I paid for it.?

Ev has its place when there is more of an equilibrium between prices and overall costs based on mileage use then I would jump ship.

As it stands ice is still going to be around for 20 30 years even with a ban by 2035 unless prices come down.

I saw a lovely 2016  bmw 635d for a measly 13.5k last week. I was even tempted from my petrol car.

 

[Aidan Ap Word]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

Poland was an example to make people think.

It's a very long calculation to do it for the whole world.

However, UK electricity is lower CO2 than most.  China is 2.2X greater CO2/kWh and so a Tesla in China has greater CO2 emissions than a Fiesta.

USA 1.55X greater so a Fiesta is only marginally worse than a Tesla in USA.  Certainly the Tesla would take ages to pay back, if it ever did.

Statements like "[in China] Tesla has greater CO2 emissions than a Fiesta" only makes sense for a pseicifc number of miles. And assumptions around energy generation. And only then when you ignore many significant things (almost always the cost of life and the energy cost in the network for delivery).

1.55 times more to maufacture a Tesla than a Fiesta in USA is alleed. Over just 250k miles in the iCE you will have burnt at least (using conservative estimate) 19 tonnes of fuel. Good luck putting th espreadsheet together that supports your "ages to pay back, if it ever did" ... especially since that the source of the energy in manufacture changes over tyime.

[Aidan Ap Word]

5 minutes ago, kzb said:

The fact remains, if you give a German or a Polish person a Tesla to replace their Fiesta you will INCREASE CO2 emissions !

Do you want to test the assumptions you made in that statement?

• energy balance over time
• envrionmental cost of the maintenance

... and many more

 

[kzb]

5 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Because, over time, that ICE vehicle doesn't have a hope of matching the environmental credentials of an EV in any country with anything remotely trending towards environmentally responsible energy capture.

This started because someone thought I was being stupid with my analysis of CO2 emissions.

I hope I have shown you that, at the very least, any CO2 saving is small and quite likely non existent over the whole planet.

There is a long way to go on power supply before EVs can claim real CO2 savings.  Perhaps when the whole world is like France (0.053kg/kWh) you can preach, but will that happen in our childrens lifetimes?

[markyh]

33 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

. Re solar panels a 4kw system should give you over 3000kw HR so about 12000m 

My recent 4.2kw HD SolarEdge system did 3824kw in its 1st year 6th Feb 2019 to 5th Feb 2020. We’ll pleased. 

[kzb]

14 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Statements like "[in China] Tesla has greater CO2 emissions than a Fiesta" only makes sense for a pseicifc number of miles. And assumptions around energy generation. And only then when you ignore many significant things (almost always the cost of life and the energy cost in the network for delivery).

1.55 times more to maufacture a Tesla than a Fiesta in USA is alleed. Over just 250k miles in the iCE you will have burnt at least (using conservative estimate) 19 tonnes of fuel. Good luck putting th espreadsheet together that supports your "ages to pay back, if it ever did" ... especially since that the source of the energy in manufacture changes over tyime.

No you have misunderstood.

The figures I give are per mile (or could be per km or whatever unit of distance you like).  Not the manufacturing.

Over 250k miles, in Germany, Poland or China, a Tesla would emit more CO2 than the 19 tonnes of fuel being burnt.  This is from the public electricity supply.  If they are rich enough to afford solar panels then it alters things.

[winkie]

3 hours ago, kzb said:

^ I think you are missing the point entirely.  Tesla is about making money, not cutting emissions.  Their decisions are based on money, not CO2 or other environmental factors.

Yes....money to be made out of everything, all the while at the same time money is being made from trashing the environment.......make billions, and then donate a billion to good causes to put right all the wrongs that made billions.

[kzb]

13 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Do you want to test the assumptions you made in that statement?

• energy balance over time
• envrionmental cost of the maintenance

... and many more

 

The difference in high CO2 countries like China or Poland is so large that I bet these minor things make little difference.

[longgone]

16 minutes ago, markyh said:

My recent 4.2kw HD SolarEdge system did 3824kw in its 1st year 6th Feb 2019 to 5th Feb 2020. We’ll pleased. 

We just tap into the street lights

[Confusion of VIs]

26 minutes ago, kzb said:

The fact remains, if you give a German or a Polish person a Tesla to replace their Fiesta you will INCREASE CO2 emissions !

But the fact is it won't be replacing a Fiesta, it will be replacing another large high performance car.

[markyh]

39 minutes ago, longgone said:

 Because I would not pay 40k for any car I saw a lovely 2016  bmw 635d for a measly 13.5k last week. I was even tempted from my petrol car.

 

You view on cars is completely skewed as a low miles driver. That 635d has horrendous running costs in fuel servicing and maintenance, unless you hardly go anywhere p/a. A 2016 Honda Civic 1.6i-dtec is a much better diesel.

Both are terrible compared to our EV’s. 
 

What poor working class mum is choosing a 635d to do a school run? One clutch replacement will bankrupt them.

[winkie]

In order for people to buy an EV they will have to reduce the price....make them more affordable. Buying on the never never is not an option......renting them is not an option......rather get there on a horse and cart, no doubt they will ban that as not good for co2 emissions.?

[iamnumerate]

49 minutes ago, kzb said:

No you have misunderstood.

The figures I give are per mile (or could be per km or whatever unit of distance you like).  Not the manufacturing.

Over 250k miles, in Germany, Poland or China, a Tesla would emit more CO2 than the 19 tonnes of fuel being burnt.  This is from the public electricity supply.  If they are rich enough to afford solar panels then it alters things.

That is depressing.

[longgone]

26 minutes ago, markyh said:

You view on cars is completely skewed as a low miles driver. That 635d has horrendous running costs in fuel servicing and maintenance, unless you hardly go anywhere p/a. A 2016 Honda Civic 1.6i-dtec is a much better diesel.

Both are terrible compared to our EV’s. 
 

What poor working class mum is choosing a 635d to do a school run? One clutch replacement will bankrupt them.

Oh ffs you are just scared of cars breaking on your watch.  So a working class mum can afford 40k for ev But not 500 for a clutch and a13.5k car.

They can always piss away 400 notes on a warranty if they like.

You obviously do not value comfort or looks at all either.

A Honda civic or 6 series 4 drive beemer ?

 

[Riedquat]

The benefits from electric cars will largely be with inner city air quality rather than overall emissions differences. That's fortunate because it's also the type of environment in which electric cars are the most suited for anyway, so it's where efforts to get conversions to electric should be targetted. Getting electric vans, taxis, and buses widespread should be more of a priority than worrying about people travelling up and down motorways.

 

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

1 hour ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Because, over time, that ICE vehicle doesn't have a hope of matching the environmental credentials of an EV in any country with anything remotely trending towards environmentally responsible energy capture.

The Germans and the Polish - if they care about the environment at all - will drive towards green eneergy because a very big proportion of energy is used in manufacture (and not just that used in cars).

And if you wish to be all "comrade" about it ... then yeah .. we shouldn't be driving around at all.

So trying to come back to the origins of this thread anyway:

*globally* people don't want to drive ICE cars anymore because they are fianlly waking up to:

1. over time the EV gets environmentally a better plan (even if it is only currently marginal, and that is only in exceptional countries)
2. an EV is more convenient
3. an EV is pretty close to the same cost over 4 years and it is getting better over time
4. an EV is more fun to drive
5. an EV is frequently safer (partly because it is just a newer car, and partly because the endign in the front is a horrible thing to have in the way in an accident)
6. an EV doesn't smell
7. an EV is more practical (esp in terms of internal space)
8. an EV invovles less maintenance (which is just a hassle)

... and (possibly most importantly) people just don't want to drive any more.

And, at the very centre of it, and agreeing that the ERV numbers are still proportionately small ... the numbers at the tills are clear ... EV sales are up, ICE sales are (hugely) down.

I think you're assuming the whole world to have the luxury of choice. They don't.

Cost is a significant factor for people in this country. And for people in poorer countries even more so.

[regprentice]

2 hours ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

1. over time the EV gets environmentally a better plan (even if it is only currently marginal, and that is only in exceptional countries)
2. an EV is more convenient
3. an EV is pretty close to the same cost over 4 years and it is getting better over time
4. an EV is more fun to drive
5. an EV is frequently safer (partly because it is just a newer car, and partly because the endign in the front is a horrible thing to have in the way in an accident)
6. an EV doesn't smell
7. an EV is more practical (esp in terms of internal space)
8. an EV invovles less maintenance (which is just a hassle)

I'm not sure I agree with many of those things..... 

Point 2 - What makes an EV more convenient? I don't see any thing that inherently makes it more convenient, plugging it in 2 or three times a day, instead of inserting a petrol nozzle once a fortnight certainly doesn't strike me as a benefit. 

Point 3 - is this referring to leasing? That's no use to me. The cost of outright purchase simply isn't comparable. 

Point 4 - that's subjective. I can see the government applying restrictions to EV's eventually to bring their performance delivery closer to ICE cars once 'normal' people start wrapping them around trees. According to this article 75% of Tesla drivers were caught speeding in the Netherlands in 2018 that won't be allowed to continue. 

Point 5 and 7 - common models such as the egolf or zoe still have the Electric engine as the same place as an ICE engine, and have reduced boot capacity compared to the ICE equivalent as the batteries are stored in the boot floor. 

Point 6 - neither does a petrol? Older diesels maybe but I genuinely couldn't distinguish the smell of a running petrol engine.

Point 8 - EV's still need to be serviced so you aren't avoiding services, at least during the warranty period. For older cars adding a service to your MOT visit is hardly a hassle. If you are talking about normal maintenance checks then, apart from checking the oil level, every other maintenance activity like checking tyres, screenwash, steering fluid, brake fluid etc still has to be done. 

[reddog]

Getting back on the topic of car sales.

 

Looks like the Corona virus will be having a big impact:

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-crisis-jaguar-land-rover-warns-uk-production-hit-looms-11937193

 

It is amazing how many car parts are made in china now.  Few years back there was a problem with Aston Martin cars, which was traced to a Chinese made component: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-aston-china-insight/aston-martin-recall-highlights-risk-of-china-parts-supply-idUSBREA1A0SD20140211

[Confusion of VIs]

 

3 hours ago, kzb said:

This started because someone thought I was being stupid with my analysis of CO2 emissions.

I hope I have shown you that, at the very least, any CO2 saving is small and quite likely non existent over the whole planet.

There is a long way to go on power supply before EVs can claim real CO2 savings.  Perhaps when the whole world is like France (0.053kg/kWh) you can preach, but will that happen in our childrens lifetimes?

I don't recall saying you were being stupid but you were wrong and parroting the propaganda still being pumped out by those whose futures are tied to the fossil fuel industry.

All you have shown is that you can imagine an unusual circumstance where EVs could produce more CO2 than an ICE (And again demonstrated an ability to ignore studies produced by people with far more knowledge/evidence than yourself).

My real life example,

average mileage 11000 p.a. 

                                       M5        =  13,125kg     (11,000m /8.8mpg = 1,250gallon petrol,   1g produces 10.5kg of CO2)

                                      Tesla*    =   1,723kg       (11,000m /3mpkw  =  3,666kwh                    1kwh produces 0.47kg CO2)                                                            * ignoring Green tariff and using Av figure for UK electricity production  

So in real life the reduction is huge, over 11tons of CO2 

For my +600mile trips to see my parents to cut costs I often hired a Fiesta and got just over 30mpg from it so even driving a Fiesta I would still be putting out almost 4tons of CO2 p.a.                                              

                                  

[Confusion of VIs]

4 hours ago, kzb said:

The fact remains, if you give a German or a Polish person a Tesla to replace their Fiesta you will INCREASE CO2 emissions !

Let's see your calcs on that.