Biggest annual drop in car sales since 2009

[Riedquat]

11 minutes ago, markyh said:

TBH, BEV works for me, the fuel savings pay for our nice cars, they don't break down, once paid for after 6-8 years they are pennies per day to run. I don't want people like you driving BEV, I want all those unable to charge at home to stick with ICE for as long as possible. Buy your last new one in 2035, keeping going as long as you can afford it. I want ICE suckers paying more and more  Fuel Duty for as long as possible, at least until 2030. 

Works for you, works for me, but my costs will fall YOY, yours will rise. Again, suits me. 

Charming.

[Social Justice League]

8 minutes ago, markyh said:

TBH, BEV works for me, the fuel savings pay for our nice cars, they don't break down, once paid for after 6-8 years they are pennies per day to run. I don't want people like you driving BEV, I want all those unable to charge at home to stick with ICE for as long as possible. Buy your last new one in 2035, keeping going as long as you can afford it. I want ICE suckers paying more and more  Fuel Duty for as long as possible, at least until 2030. 

Works for you, works for me, but my costs will fall YOY, yours will rise. Again, suits me. 

Will a Nissan Leaf run reliability for 20 years or more?

If everyone goes over to "electric" then the government will create a new "road tax" charge or some kind of "road toll" scheme to cover the fuel duty that is lost.

 

[markyh]

16 minutes ago, regprentice said:

From comment ls earlier in the thread. 60% of residents in cities won't have access to their own charging point. They will have to pay whatever the PAYG rate is if they can even access a charging point. 

Being cynical if I get a PAYG provider in to lay charging posts as a service they will quote for a cheap install to get the work, and then overcharge when they are charging customers to earn the profit back to offset the hit they took on the infrastructure install. 

The argument I responded to implied that EV cars would never fall below £7k in value because the cheap cost of electricity would make a 15 yo EV cheaper to run overall, and therefore more desirable, than say a 7 year old ICE focus. I don't believe thats true. 

Let me put it to you another way. Even if petrol jumped 4 fold to £5 a litre and I still wouldn't be urgently motivated to sell my ice car as long as an EV is 3 times the price of an equivalent ICE - because I would only need to find an extra £4k this year for petrol, not £35-45k for a new focus sized EV when my last brand new focus sized ICE cost £13k.

I suspect in 2050 there will only be 1 few Petrol / Diesel pumps every 50  miles, better hope you don't have a 100 mile round trip to fill up your cheap ICE @ £5 litre. 

Again, all these situations assume what we have today will remain and not change, petrol stations wont close and dwindle with demand. Do you think if in a Town with 3000 cars if only 100 are ICE cars that all the supermarkets are going to keep those petrol pumps operational and manned with no sales. No they will be converted to 300kw BEV chargers.

[markyh]

2 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

Will a Nissan Leaf run reliability for 20 years or more?

Yes, even the 2011 ones with reduced battery range are still going strong 9 years later, our EREV have the same 40 miles summer EV range as the day it was made in 2012. 

All the stuff that breaks and makes a car uneconomical to repair and keep on the road are gone in a EV.  A guy down the street I talk to who does 150 miles a day for work just paid £2.5k to fix his gearbox in his sporty Alfa 159 Diesel. Not sure how old it is as it has a private plate.  I could replace tyres, CV joints, shock absorbers and brake pads and discs for 20+ years in an EV for that that amount.

[2buyornot2buy]

23 minutes ago, markyh said:

VW will never get 2 million battery packs p/a in 3 years time, they have "0" Gigafactories now. Only Tesla could achieve this by 2023.

They seem to have signed plenty of supply contracts with the big SA suppliers and bought a stake in Guoxuan with a battery factory being built. They have experience dealing with complex supply chains. Vertical integration isn't always the best way. In saying that, I think VWs biggest problem will be meeting demand full stop at the price levels they have set and their reputation (forgetting dieselgate) they will be inundated with orders. I expect the ID3 to be massive by 2022. 

[Aidan Ap Word]

33 minutes ago, regprentice said:

Let me put it to you another way. Even if petrol jumped 4 fold to £5 a litre and I still wouldn't be urgently motivated to sell my ice car as long as an EV is 3 times the price of an equivalent ICE - because I would only need to find an extra £4k this year for petrol, not £35-45k for a new focus sized EV when my last brand new focus sized ICE cost £13k.

Except an EV is not 3 times the price of an equivalent ICE ... unless of course you think the only thing relevant in a car is it's size.

[Aidan Ap Word]

2 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Hydrogen hasn't gone out of fashion! As with all green energy solutions, the cost of scaling up the [supply] technology is the issue preventing wholesale adoption. The debate in Germany is now polarised between advocates of 'green' and 'blue' hydrogen.

That is not the only issue preventing wholesale adoption.

Here's a few others:

• hydrogen network maintenance
• hydrogen network build out
• inconvenience of having to go to a hydrogen fuel station
• driving around with a bomb in the boot
• additional complexity of the car (albeit nowehre near ICE levels)

... never mind it is solving a problem that doesn't really exist.

and then there is the fact that I can't refine my own hydrogen on my roof.

[regprentice]

8 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Except an EV is not 3 times the price of an equivalent ICE ... unless of course you think the only thing relevant in a car is it's size.

If by size you mean segment, then yes I'd expect to compare it like with like by segment. My current car is a Seat Leon, a c segment car which cost £12.8k new last year and  I'd expect to replace it with a similar sized EV which at the moment would mean an egolf or a leaf or something similar. 

I'm not going to downgrade in size to a corsa or a zoe or equivalent. 

[markyh]

26 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

They seem to have signed plenty of supply contracts with the big SA suppliers and bought a stake in Guoxuan with a battery factory being built. They have experience dealing with complex supply chains. Vertical integration isn't always the best way. In saying that, I think VWs biggest problem will be meeting demand full stop at the price levels they have set and their reputation (forgetting dieselgate) they will be inundated with orders. I expect the ID3 to be massive by 2022. 

Tbh ID3 will be great and on our 2021 shortlist , but unless it’s nearer £30k before grant for a 250 miler, than £35k+, otherwise may as well get a Tesla. 

[Aidan Ap Word]

20 minutes ago, regprentice said:

If by size you mean segment, then yes I'd expect to compare it like with like by segment. My current car is a Seat Leon, a c segment car which cost £12.8k new last year and  I'd expect to replace it with a similar sized EV which at the moment would mean an egolf or a leaf or something similar. 

I'm not going to downgrade in size to a corsa or a zoe or equivalent. 

12.8*3 = ?

And a new Seat Leon costs you alot more than 12.8 (unless you find a deal even better than these, which *start* at 18k for the bottom spec):

[Riedquat]

42 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

and then there is the fact that I can't refine my own hydrogen on my roof.

All it takes is water and electricity.

[longgone]

1 hour ago, markyh said:

 

All the stuff that breaks and makes a car uneconomical to repair and keep on the road are gone in a EV.  

no its not stop talking out your backside 

[longgone]

32 minutes ago, regprentice said:

 My current car is a Seat Leon

 

good choice ?

[OnionTerror]

1 hour ago, markyh said:

Yes, even the 2011 ones with reduced battery range are still going strong 9 years later, our EREV have the same 40 miles summer EV range as the day it was made in 2012. 

All the stuff that breaks and makes a car uneconomical to repair and keep on the road are gone in a EV.  A guy down the street I talk to who does 150 miles a day for work just paid £2.5k to fix his gearbox in his sporty Alfa 159 Diesel. Not sure how old it is as it has a private plate.  I could replace tyres, CV joints, shock absorbers and brake pads and discs for 20+ years in an EV for that that amount.

Two and a half grand to replace a 159 gearbox?  Why would you do that?  You can pick up a pretty decent model for two grand or less.  I ran a 156 for several years...fabulous cars.

7 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

All it takes is water and electricity.

E-benzin developed by Audi looks like an interesting alternative.. 

https://www.motorcyclenews.com/news/2018/july/synthetic-petrol-coming-soon/

[longgone]

3 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Two and a half grand to replace a 159 gearbox?  Why would you do that?  You can pick up a pretty decent model for two grand or less.  I ran a 156 for several years...fabulous cars.

 

go to a main dealer and they quote you stupid prices like that, probably buy one for £200 on ebay 

[markyh]

9 minutes ago, longgone said:

no its not stop talking out your backside 

I’m not talking about accident damage, I’m talking wear and tear, ICE engine, gearbox and transmission all wear out, especially clutches, exhausts, dpf, DMF, fuel filters, oil filters , oil, 

The only replacement thing a BEV has in common with an ice that needs regular replacement is washer fluid!!!

[regprentice]

25 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

12.8*3 = ?

And a new Seat Leon costs you alot more than 12.8 (unless you find a deal even better than these, which *start* at 18k for the bottom spec):

 

You'll find people discussing the £12.8k deal for the Leon on the 'BoE investigates terrifying rise...' thread last year. Is highlighted by longgone in the post below. I'm struggling to cross link that thread on my phone. 

On 17/01/2019 at 12:11, longgone said:

the deals are coming in thick and fast on new cars  32% discount. 

https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/seat-leon-se-15tsi-evo-5dr-brand-new-at-drive-the-deal-32-off-list-price-1268180-drive-the-deal-3155314

[Riedquat]

3 minutes ago, markyh said:

I’m not talking about accident damage, I’m talking wear and tear, ICE engine, gearbox and transmission all wear out, especially clutches, exhausts, dpf, DMF, fuel filters, oil filters , oil, 

The only replacement thing a BEV has in common with an ice that needs regular replacement is washer fluid!!!

Heaven knows what you've been doing to cars if all of those are a regular replacement.

[regprentice]

26 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

12.8*3 = ?

That includes the Govt subsidies. Strip those out and it's still close to three times the price

It doesn't seem right to me to be on this website arguing against Govt subsidies in the form of help to buy because they inflate prices, but to argue for subsidies for EV's. If the Govt didn't subsidise the EV market then Nissan would have to develop processes to produce a car at a price  price that would sell. 

As it is, I'd be looking for the leaf, or equivalent, to be £15-16k. I don't care in the slightest about the technological advances, it simply needs to be the same price or cheaper than my current car to own and run. As I said earlier in the thread people will end up buying EV's because the Govt forces up the price of ICE ownership, not because EV's become cheaper through improved processes. And that will push a lot of normal people out of car ownership in the same way the Government has already achieved with home ownership. That's the point of this website. 

[longgone]

2 minutes ago, markyh said:

I’m not talking about accident damage, I’m talking wear and tear, ICE engine, gearbox and transmission all wear out, especially clutches, exhausts, dpf, DMF, fuel filters, oil filters , oil, 

The only replacement thing a BEV has in common with an ice that needs regular replacement is washer fluid!!!

petrol engines good for 150k before any minor work diesel probably 200k  mercedes good for 500k if not more. 

i think you are talking about 90`s and earlier cars any car that is 15 years old now will be very reliable.  dpf faults and blockages is mostly due to driving style diesels are not for driving about in town.  filters cost nothing for all of them 

clutches down to bad drivers or just buy an auto most exhausts last the lifetime of the car. 

electrical and suspension problems will still exist in EV cars  misty lights  leaking seals rusty bodies  wiper motors broken sunroofs window regulators leaking diffs fried wiring and ecu`s dodgy parking sensors etc etc 

engines and gearboxes rarely fail now.  burnt motor bushes and battery fires and abnormal failures will take over presumably the gearbox is replaced by something to control the watts being sent to the motors. 

[longgone]

15 minutes ago, regprentice said:

You'll find people discussing the £12.8k deal for the Leon on the 'BoE investigates terrifying rise...' thread last year. Is highlighted by longgone in the post below. I'm struggling to cross link that thread on my phone. 

glad my post was useful it does demonstrate how the plebs though have been gamed into thinking saving on "fuel" offsets the waste of money buying the thing in the first place. 

hopefully the mk4 just released will have the same kind of deals ?

[markyh]

10 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Heaven knows what you've been doing to cars if all of those are a regular replacement.

Not me, my last 3 ICE were Honda Civic diesels, 2008, 2012 and 2015. But someone gets caught of with a big bill once the music stops. Last two big bills I had was a top end rebuild on a 2000 Golf GTI 150 in 2007 after the cam belt snapped and a DMF failure on a 2006 Saab 93 turbo diesel in 2010. 
 

The longer you keep an older ICE and the higher the mileage the odds of hitting a big bill go up massively. These big failures are very very rare in an old BEV.

[markyh]

8 minutes ago, longgone said:

petrol engines good for 150k before any minor work diesel probably 200k  mercedes good for 500k if not more. 

i think you are talking about 90`s and earlier cars any car that is 15 years old now will be very reliable.  dpf faults and blockages is mostly due to driving style diesels are not for driving about in town.  filters cost nothing for all of them 

clutches down to bad drivers or just buy an auto most exhausts last the lifetime of the car. 

electrical and suspension problems will still exist in EV cars  misty lights  leaking seals rusty bodies  wiper motors broken sunroofs window regulators leaking diffs fried wiring and ecu`s dodgy parking sensors etc etc 

engines and gearboxes rarely fail now.  burnt motor bushes and battery fires and abnormal failures will take over presumably the gearbox is replaced by something to control the watts being sent to the motors. 

No diff, no gearbox,  most EVs are direct drive from the motor.

[Social Justice League]

Yep, get yourself an old Merc for £2 grand and it will probably outlive just about everything.

Decent V6's and 8 are good for 400k miles easily.  Nothing much ever breaks.

Most expensive thing is the fuel.

[zugzwang]

6 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

That is not the only issue preventing wholesale adoption.

Here's a few others:

• hydrogen network maintenance
• hydrogen network build out
• inconvenience of having to go to a hydrogen fuel station
• driving around with a bomb in the boot
• additional complexity of the car (albeit nowehre near ICE levels)

... never mind it is solving a problem that doesn't really exist.

and then there is the fact that I can't refine my own hydrogen on my roof.

Much of the existing gas network can be repurposed to carry hydrogen, so H2 will be ubiquitous. Before switching to natural gas the UK and German gas networks used to operate on towngas, which was mostly hydrogen. Green hydrogen will operate hand-in-glove with other renewables and nuclear, helping overcome local generational variability and enabling the decarbonisation of industries such as steel, aviation, long-haul sea and road transportation. The build out will form part of a Europe-wide Green New Deal.