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What/who will collapse first in 2018


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HOLA441

https://www.ft.com/content/1deafc7a-4790-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb

 

Looks like Hammond is backing down after all and accepting the recommendations that the stake limit on FOBTs be dropped to £2. Though not a collapse for the companies involved, this is going to result in closures for betting shops and more pain on the high street for LAs and commercial landlords through loss of rent and rates.

 

 

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HOLA442
15 minutes ago, payoyo said:

https://www.ft.com/content/1deafc7a-4790-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb

 

Looks like Hammond is backing down after all and accepting the recommendations that the stake limit on FOBTs be dropped to £2. Though not a collapse for the companies involved, this is going to result in closures for betting shops and more pain on the high street for LAs and commercial landlords through loss of rent and rates.

 

 

I'm surprised that they're going for £2.Pleasantly,to be honest.

The repercussions in terms of business rate revenue are the key loss to the Exchequer I suspect as these shops won't be reoccupied in a hurry.

It's going to murder High St's in places like Leicester where EA's and bookies have filled the gaps left by most other types of retail shutting down.

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HOLA443
51 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

I'm surprised that they're going for £2.Pleasantly,to be honest.

The repercussions in terms of business rate revenue are the key loss to the Exchequer I suspect as these shops won't be reoccupied in a hurry.

It's going to murder High St's in places like Leicester where EA's and bookies have filled the gaps left by most other types of retail shutting down.

Yes if it does turn out to be £2 then good. I am surprised that they have decided to weigh the social cost - clearly there is widespread support for much lower maximum stakes in the house of commons and that seems to have put Hammond in a corner with the local elections coming up.

The numbers put forward for closures by the bookies under a £2 stake scenario suggest up to 1/3 of shops would close. That might end up being a dramatic bluff from the industry, but even closing 1/5 would mean significant vacancies on some high streets.

 

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HOLA444
6 minutes ago, payoyo said:

Yes if it does turn out to be £2 then good. I am surprised that they have decided to weigh the social cost - clearly there is widespread support for much lower maximum stakes in the house of commons and that seems to have put Hammond in a corner with the local elections coming up.

The numbers put forward for closures by the bookies under a £2 stake scenario suggest up to 1/3 of shops would close. That might end up being a dramatic bluff from the industry, but even closing 1/5 would mean significant vacancies on some high streets.

 

I know a couple of people in the industry.Except for shops where's there's a large local base of long odds punters, the bulk of the profit is in the machines.I was surprised.

When I bet these days,I generally do it online,where the bulk of liquidity is.

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HOLA445

In other news,shipping broker takes a PW.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/04/23/shipbroker-clarksons-shares-sink-warns-profits-amid-tough-market/

'As a consequence, the 166-year-old business warned that while to was too early to forecast the full impact of the difficult market, both interim and full-year profits would be “materially below” last year, when it reported an underlying pre-tax profit of £50.2m.

Analysts had been expecting Clarkson to post profits of about £60m this year. In response, house broker Panmure Gordon slashed its forecast to £45m.'

 

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Safestyle as safe as houses?

Quote

A double-glazing windows and doors firm has announced the departure of its chairman amid warnings about the company's profits.

Safestyle UK, based in Bradford, West Yorkshire, said "aggressive" new competition in the market was eating into its customer base.

It also pointed to declining consumer confidence.

The company expected 2018 revenue and pre-tax profits to be "significantly below current market expectations".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-43865956

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HOLA4412
3 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Yes it's very clear.

They kept wondering why customers delayed payment for as long as they could... then they realised their slogan, "In three years these windows will pay for themselves"

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HOLA4414

There seems to be a pattern of businesses which deal with large scale home improvements struggling at the moment.  It all makes sense:

- BTL scum are not going to use them because everything can be fixed with a lick of matt magnolia paint

- Recent buyers are are not going to use them because after paying for their over-priced shitholes they have no money left for improvements

- Earlier buyers (current property millionaires) cannot MEW as easily once the property prices start falling

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- home improvements will no longer increase the value of a "property" by any amount greater than the cost.

Perhaps people who just wanted to improve where they live was a very small part of the market. Now that smallest part even smaller due how few people can afford a house in the first place.

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HOLA4416
16 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

- home improvements will no longer increase the value of a "property" by any amount greater than the cost.

I'd argue that once there is sufficient amount of property porn on TV, and everyone and their dog think of themselves as a property investor, any arbitrage opportunities disappear independent whether property prices are going up or down.

As there is more than can possibly be watched property porn on,  I would expect any such profit to be already priced in.  If the property is mispriced (price too low), one could just buy it, wait for the "savvy" investor "who understands its potential" and sell it to them for a profit without doing any actual work. 

Edited by Bear Hug
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HOLA4417
10 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

I know a couple of people in the industry.Except for shops where's there's a large local base of long odds punters, the bulk of the profit is in the machines.I was surprised.

When I bet these days,I generally do it online,where the bulk of liquidity is.

I'm actually surprised more of the action hasn't moved on to mobiles, could open a whole new opportunity for bookies to set up fixed rate betting apps, at a much lower cost than the physical infrastructure required for the machines.

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HOLA4418
19 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

I'm surprised that they're going for £2.Pleasantly,to be honest.

The repercussions in terms of business rate revenue are the key loss to the Exchequer I suspect as these shops won't be reoccupied in a hurry.

It's going to murder High St's in places like Leicester where EA's and bookies have filled the gaps left by most other types of retail shutting down.

A ban on disposable coffee cups would finish of the other 50% of shops ....

Learn the Tories - bringing in a corrupt gambling system to bleed to naive of their money .... Oh it was Labour. Again.

 

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HOLA4419
7 hours ago, reddog said:

I'm actually surprised more of the action hasn't moved on to mobiles, could open a whole new opportunity for bookies to set up fixed rate betting apps, at a much lower cost than the physical infrastructure required for the machines.

There are two types of people who play FOBT.

The hopelessly addicted gambler.

And local drugs dealers washing their cash.

Both would be stopped dead by online gambling - theyd need an account and the regulation could easily put an upper limit on the spend.

FOBT are a problem as the people can move from one shop to another. Most towns have several machines.

 

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HOLA4420
10 minutes ago, spyguy said:

There are two types of people who play FOBT.

The hopelessly addicted gambler.

And local drugs dealers washing their cash.

Both would be stopped dead by online gambling - theyd need an account and the regulation could easily put an upper limit on the spend.

FOBT are a problem as the people can move from one shop to another. Most towns have several machines.

 

One of those socially negative addictions that impacts on others other than the gambler.....bad for people who can't help themselves, but good for the easy money made by those that gain greatly from others who are easily tempted and weak of will....;)

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TSB chaos http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43904267

“TSB boss Paul Pester has told the BBC the bank is "on our knees" after six days of computer chaos, but pledged "we will get up and come back fighting".

The bank has been forced to call in outside help to help fix the banking system breakdown. 

Mr Pester, said he would take direct control of the issue, and had drafted in experts from IBM, who would report "directly" to him.”

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HOLA4424
53 minutes ago, Ash4781 said:

TSB chaos http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43904267

“TSB boss Paul Pester has told the BBC the bank is "on our knees" after six days of computer chaos, but pledged "we will get up and come back fighting".

So TSB customers are being irritated to hell and back by a bank managed by a Mr Pester...

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