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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. Also, I would say that the smartphone, which is a way of life for the younger generations is also responsible for the lack of "stuff" that people accumulate. Think of the number of devices it has replaced. Off the top of my head I can think of: House phone, digital camera, CD players, DVD player (and the media that people also used to buy at £10/pop), portable games console, PC in some cases, TV in some cases especially amongst the young, watch, calculator, alarm clock, tomtom. Surely this must have an impact on retail sales.
  2. Although the options are a crowded trade right now, buying some $200 puts a year out still seems like a reasonable risk/reward. I have a couple of contracts. If they go bankrupt it'll buy me one of their competitors cars.
  3. And that's exactly what happened. After all the history of social housing, he walked around with someone from Enfield council who told him the council can't build more because "budget caps". Then he muttered some rubbish about private building and only giving contracts for public housing to builders who don't land bank. What a waste of time. Barely one minute on how the banks, BTL and immigration and historically unprecedented interest rates have screwed the market.
  4. Yes if it does turn out to be £2 then good. I am surprised that they have decided to weigh the social cost - clearly there is widespread support for much lower maximum stakes in the house of commons and that seems to have put Hammond in a corner with the local elections coming up. The numbers put forward for closures by the bookies under a £2 stake scenario suggest up to 1/3 of shops would close. That might end up being a dramatic bluff from the industry, but even closing 1/5 would mean significant vacancies on some high streets.
  5. https://www.ft.com/content/1deafc7a-4790-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb Looks like Hammond is backing down after all and accepting the recommendations that the stake limit on FOBTs be dropped to £2. Though not a collapse for the companies involved, this is going to result in closures for betting shops and more pain on the high street for LAs and commercial landlords through loss of rent and rates.
  6. Same here I have been using Revolut for a couple of years now. Living in Spain and having various transactions either way in GBP and EUR, it's been a godsend. Most expats within Europe know about it now. I only worry that effectively their business model runs at a loss, so it's still questionable long term. Maybe they'll make money mining your purchasing data and selling market intelligence on. For now though as long as investors are willing to back them, I'm happy to take advantage of the exchange rates.
  7. I suppose that much of the typical local authority's budget is going on housing benefit these days, so when there's a bad winter there's no money left to fix the roads. The private slumlords who are in receipt of much of this money no doubt complain about the state of the roads whilst surveying their property empires in their Range Rovers.
  8. You will love it in Spain, if that's your choice. The attitude of enjoying life is so refreshing here, and contagious. I just think that the numbers of people struggling now are so large for us to influence. Not everyone has the motivation, even to give up smoking or lose weight, let alone achieve any savings. But I also feel sad for my home country and my children if they choose to go back there and further their careers. The south east is particularly bad yes. I bought my first house in Luton at 19 when I was a BT trainee. That was a 7% rate mortgage that took 1/3 of my take home. What's happened since then is absolutely criminal. Even renting there is horrendously expensive now, and I see little hope in the near future. I consider myself to be extremely fortunate.
  9. It's not my aspiration, and I agree it's a crappy life, but I feel that for some it's starting to become a realistic alternative when all the basic costs are ratcheting up faster than wages. I admire your tenacity and motivation to change your situation drastically. Many just don't have that ability and are trapped in the tax credit system, or in debt, and are on the verge of giving up. All of this ultimately down to high housing costs and low or stagnating wages. I myself moved out of the country to southern Spain 10 years ago. I have changed my situation too, for the better. I can work in the tech industry and enjoy a better quality of life with my family. But when I come back to visit relatives here in the south east I'm always shocked at how bad things are for ordinary people, just in the time since I left.
  10. I disagree. There are many people at the teat of the state, who are into all sorts of cash work and side trading down the pub in counterfeit cigs, drugs etc. It's about what you can get away with. They do well enough. Not having the cost base of the honest working man broadens your horizons in some respects.
  11. They of course have benefited from the weak pound recently and are essentially tourist theme parks. Hamleys are also doing ok whilst Toys R Us circles the bowl.
  12. Debenhams will be ok for now. The new CEO still has time to change things. They haven't suspended dividends (yet), and might even get away with a rights issue. New Look on the other hand has a pile of coupon payments due in May. I'd expect them to go into administration around Easter.
  13. It's part of what's going on. The barriers to entry are far lower then ever before. Just look at Netflix. No need to lease satellite transponders any more to get stuff into people's homes. And Sky don't want to pay someone to stick a dish on the side of your house, when the competition is coming using smart phone / TV apps. Nobody particularly subscribes for the movies any more, they are losing TV series and clinging on to live sports for dear life. I don't think they'll survive long term, they're the blockbuster video of broadcast industry.
  14. What has definitely peaked is the traditional broadcasting medium. The whole landscape of live sports is going to change and Sky knows it. They're not going to pay over the odds for what could be the last deal of this kind. It won't be long before the leagues begin to offer their own streaming services direct to end users. I'd expect them to charge around £200 a year to people that want to see every premiership game their team play. Perhaps they'll start to offer these services internationally at first. If you multiply the numbers up around the world, the premier league can make a ridiculous amount of money and keep the whole circus going. Of course the broadcasters lose out big time eventually. Perhaps the next deal in 2022 will only be for a subset of games and in full competition with a direct streaming service. They won't pay much for that privilege. The same will happen with F1, and is already happening with NFL and some other sports outside of their home markets. At least all those ugly satellite dishes will start coming down.
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