Countdown to leveraged BTL going bust thread

[Sancho Panza]

6 hours ago, Venger said:

 

And for some BTLers their risk appetite was to MEW and borrow and pay far in excess, bubble-prices, for houses - imo.

Read too many instances over in Regional forum, of hopeful would-be owners (on £50K+) listing up a RM link, and dreaming away - or sometimes going to viewings and even putting in bids.

Then the house selling and reappearing on RM as a rental a few weeks or months later.

You'd be genuinely surprised how many of the 4% gross yield brigade aren't even aware that the equity in their own home is at risk if they get repoed.

[Sancho Panza]

On 10/11/2017 at 11:12 AM, rantnrave said:

Gotta love this headline!

Law firm reports rise in number of landlords wishing to get out after clobbering by Government

Oct 11 2017

One of the UK’s largest law firms is reporting an increase in the number of private landlords wishing to reduce or sell off their property portfolios.

Irwin Mitchell says that this is a direct result of multiple changes forced on landlords by the Government, which have made buy-to-lets a less profitable investment option.

The firm warns, however, that disposing of buy-to-let portfolios will not be straightforward, with landlords being clobbered with Capital Gains Tax bills.

The law firm says that landlords have been affected not just by legal changes, but by growing public anti-sentiment being increasingly expressed in the media against the backdrop of the housing crisis.

In recent months, landlords have seen more stringent mortgage lending, particularly for those with four or more properties; the introduction of the 3% Stamp Duty surcharge on the purchase of buy-to-let properties; the phasing out of the ability to claim mortgage interest against tax; and the spectre of a Labour party pledge to introduce rent controls.

Jeremy Raj, partner at Irwin Mitchell, said: “It’s understandable that landlords who have been hit with some difficult changes to swallow, are now thinking of exiting the buy-to-let market in order to invest elsewhere.

“We’ve certainly seen an increase in enquiries from landlords worried about the future market.

“However, the CGT liability that will crystallise on each property sale must be factored in when weighing up whether it is best for landlords to divest of their property portfolio.”

He added: “If the Government really wants to help young people on to the property ladder, it needs to combine the recent disincentives in the buy-to-let sphere with fulfilling its promises to get more housing built.”

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/law-firm-reports-rise-in-number-of-landlords-wishing-to-get-out-after-clobbering-by-government/

Comments seemingly written by despairing landlords who believe BTLers selling up destroys housing stock.

 

[jiltedjen]

never thought of this, its quite minor but another kick in the teeth for some landlords: increased student loan repayments

will add that into the next update coming soon.

[Society of fools]

On ‎13‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 4:16 PM, jiltedjen said:

will add that into the next update coming soon.

Well, you can also add in that update that the CME group lists the probability of another 0.25% rate hike from the US Fed in the month of December at 96.7%

Its going to happen. 

Carney is going to look like a fool. His balls are the size of rice grains. 

[jiltedjen]

yep lets get tomorrow done with first!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 hours ago, Society of fools said:

Well, you can also add in that update that the CME group lists the probability of another 0.25% rate hike from the US Fed in the month of December at 96.7%

Its going to happen. 

Carney is going to look like a fool. His balls are the size of rice grains. 

Slightly larger than a BTLers then ?

[Kilham]

5 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Slightly larger than a BTLers brain then ?

FTFY.

[thewig]

5 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

infinitely larger than a DEBTjunkies net worth then ?

FTFY

[Bear Hug]

9 hours ago, Society of fools said:

Well, you can also add in that update that the CME group lists the probability of another 0.25% rate hike from the US Fed in the month of December at 96.7%

Its going to happen. 

Carney is going to look like a fool. His balls are the size of rice grains. 

He may look like a fool but the real fools are us trying to analyse the exact flavour of a turd BoE are preparing every month.  Trust me, it will still stink and the banks will still benefit the most out of it.

[thewig]

11 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

He may look like a fool but the real fools are us trying to analyse the exact flavour of a turd BoE are preparing every month.  Trust me, it will still stink and the banks will still benefit the most out of it.

woah spooky, I had the exact same revelation earlier whilst poring through the doves and hawks on the MPC, trying to second guess the mob is pretty pointless left kneecap or right kneecap

 

[spyguy]

On 12/10/2017 at 5:24 AM, Venger said:

 

And for some BTLers their risk appetite was to MEW and borrow and pay far in excess, bubble-prices, for houses - imo.

Read too many instances over in Regional forum, of hopeful would-be owners (on £50K+) listing up a RM link, and dreaming away - or sometimes going to viewings and even putting in bids.

Then the house selling and reappearing on RM as a rental a few weeks or months later.

In my areas houses tend to appear, sit for x months, then reappear as rentals *without* selling.

Assuming the LL sh1tstorm is going to be massive - and there's nothing to indicate that it wont be - then the 'relaxed' tails I I, heads I win, if it does not sell we'll just rent it out ... stops dead.

 

[Society of fools]

On ‎2‎/‎11‎/‎2017 at 3:02 AM, Bear Hug said:

He may look like a fool but the real fools are us trying to analyse the exact flavour of a turd BoE are preparing every month

I was watching Bloomberg last night, and the journo reckoned that the consensus amongst her colleagues was that the BOE would raise one more time in 2018 (Q4) and one more time in 2019 ( also at the end of the year). 

Carney won't be around for those, so it may just be that his BOE interest rate setting record will only have two moves: the 0.25 cut after the Brexit vote, and the 0.25 raise one year + later. 

He is certainly collecting a sack-load of cash for doing sweet f..k all. 

 

[Si1]

11 hours ago, Society of fools said:

 

Carney won't be around for those, so it may just be that his BOE interest rate setting record will only have two moves: the 0.25 cut after the Brexit vote, and the 0.25 raise one year + later. 

 

You forgot to mention his political intervention in the brexit debate, which was disgraceful.

[Sancho Panza]

16 hours ago, Society of fools said:

I was watching Bloomberg last night, and the journo reckoned that the consensus amongst her colleagues was that the BOE would raise one more time in 2018 (Q4) and one more time in 2019 ( also at the end of the year). 

Carney won't be around for those, so it may just be that his BOE interest rate setting record will only have two moves: the 0.25 cut after the Brexit vote, and the 0.25 raise one year + later. 

He is certainly collecting a sack-load of cash for doing sweet f..k all. 

 

3 years at £900k,nearly £1.35mn per move.

He's not thick.

 

Edited November 3, 2017 by Sancho Panza

[Venger]

Radio 4 was just going over news-items, and the presenter lady said (something close to), "Hammond is expected to make further moves (in Budget) against those buying homes to invest in, wanting more money invested in businesses.'

[jiltedjen]

No one likes a BTL’er. easy targets. 

and im pretty sure the budget with hold yet more surprises for them. The greatest of all the fools. 

 

[highcontrast]

Is this The Telegraph with a misleading headline implying "don't panic", but in fact really what they mean is "panic"??? (Where's that funny meme when you need it?)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/buy-to-let/landlords-have-had-easy-even-rising-interest-rates-wont-force/

[Lavalas]

19 minutes ago, deadlyavenger said:

Is this The Telegraph with a misleading headline implying "don't panic", but in fact really what they mean is "panic"??? (Where's that funny meme when you need it?)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/buy-to-let/landlords-have-had-easy-even-rising-interest-rates-wont-force/

Some strong comments there

[Si1]

"

He admits that if the cost of doing business was to become squeezed further he would have to consider putting rents up.

“I think landlords will look at passing on the costs if the figures aren’t stacking up. Landlords have had it pretty good over the past few years but that may well come to an end,” he added.

 

"

Edited November 4, 2017 by Si1

[highcontrast]

The good news just keeps on coming 

Savills really are talking down the market atm??? Shirley they would be still trying to paint a rosier picture than it actually is? Maybe they know reality is actually going to be "even" worse for BTL? 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/buy-to-let-investing-plummet-savills-forecasts-house-price-growth/

p.s. to all the (many) Buy-toi-letters and potential wannabes reading this.....lolz...innit

[spyguy]

45 minutes ago, Si1 said:

"

He admits that if the cost of doing business was to become squeezed further he would have to consider putting rents up.

“I think landlords will look at passing on the costs if the figures aren’t stacking up. Landlords have had it pretty good over the past few years but that may well come to an end,” he added.

 

"

Delusional.

7 properties in yhe North. So DSS most likely. No chance of putting rents up.

Pay a little more tax..... Well assuming these are io btl then hus little will be 50% of income.

As far as fixing .... fine as long as you dont suddenly find yourself needing to sell up. You know, due to s24.

Moron.

[thewig]

These DEBTjunkies are like worms. They just wriggle around trying to find loopholes in policy. They’re like the dumb kid in class who keeps saying “but” no matter what is said to him.

whilst the rest of the class quietly shake their heads 

[Ah-so]

Perhaps Phillip Hammond is going to continue Osborne'a work with another hit at landlords 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shut-door-on-second-homes-to-help-first-time-buyers-hammond-is-told-v77xss0sk

And in a separate article :

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/adrift-on-housing-6dvwk60z0

"Hammond is believed to want a housing strategy that favours first time buyers over ... buy-to-let landlords"

[mrtickle]

3 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Some strong comments there

Nice to see Ranty Ros is back

For prosperity....

Quote

Ranty Ros 4 Nov 2017 10:40AM

This dreadful interest rate rise, up by a whole quarter of a percent back to where it had been for several years prior to 2016, leaves buy-to-let landlords with no alternative but to put our rents up.  We buy-to-let landlords are business entrepreneurs in the economy, creating huge amounts of wealth by investing in property by highly leveraged borrowing on interest-only mortgages, and then enjoying the relentless house price inflation that benefits the economy so much.  Together with the dreadful Section 24, which stops us getting full tax relief on our mortgage interest payments and means that we now have to start paying income tax on some of our rental income, anybody would think that the government does not want us to continue to provide much-needed homes for those who cannot afford to buy.  If I didn't rent my properties out to students I would even have to pay Council Tax on them!

 

Nearly three University Professors agree that owner-occupier families enjoy enormous financial subsidies from the Government, because they do not have to pay a single penny of tax on the imputed rent that they benefit from by living in their own homes.  Innit.

 

GCHQ Spying on U 4 Nov 2017 10:36AM

I hope the BTL-ers get burned.  I'm looking for a city-centre entertainment flat to go to the opera and take my hookerz afterwards.

lol

 

Edited November 4, 2017 by mrtickle

[Venger]

2 hours ago, Ah-so said:

Perhaps Phillip Hammond is going to continue Osborne'a work with another hit at landlords 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shut-door-on-second-homes-to-help-first-time-buyers-hammond-is-told-v77xss0sk

And in a separate article :

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/adrift-on-housing-6dvwk60z0

"Hammond is believed to want a housing strategy that favours first time buyers over ... buy-to-let landlords"

Thanks Ah-so.  (for info and both links.  2nd link; fair-use snippet)

Quote

Mr Hammond is believed to want a housing strategy that favours first-time buyers over second homeowners and buy-to-let landlords. He also believes that too much of the country’s wealth is tied up in bricks and mortar when investment is needed in business, infrastructure and technology.

Although there's a battle on.  For all those who claim older owners never think about the value of their homes, and 99% want lower prices, you just have to read 400+ comments to know that the Protection of HPI is at forefront of many minds, including the BTLers.

11 hours ago, Venger said:

Radio 4 was just going over news-items, and the presenter lady said (something close to), "Hammond is expected to make further moves (in Budget) against those buying homes to invest in, wanting more money invested in businesses.'

It's not going to be all about the 'core-voters of HPI/BTL'- other powerful VI in play, including HMRC looking for CGT/tax, and banks for fresh lending, imo (to FTBs/upsiziers).

Makes no sense (for them) to have 2/3rd of housing stock with no debt on it, with zany high prices.  Makes no sense apart from to the BTLers to have older VI BTLers with loads of homes claimed by 1 person/couple 'providing homes'.   Needs a shakeout.