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Countdown to leveraged BTL going bust thread


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HOLA441
18 minutes ago, Toast said:

Why does Cerberus have these to sell now? I thought they specialised in distressed assets, in which case they would be buying later on, when the debt is imparied, and then doing (or outsourcing) whatever the financial equivalent of kneecapping would be, to get a profit.

They do, they did.

They picked up these loans from UKGOV bad bank.

Theyv had arummage though it and either dont want it anymore, or most likely, Metrobank made them an offer they could not refuse.

Cerebus are probably pissing themselves down the pub - They bought the book!!!!

 

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HOLA442
2 hours ago, spyguy said:

They do, they did.

They picked up these loans from UKGOV bad bank.

Theyv had arummage though it and either dont want it anymore, or most likely, Metrobank made them an offer they could not refuse.

Cerebus are probably pissing themselves down the pub - They bought the book!!!!

 

It could equally well be part of the Permanent TSB portfolio Cerebus bought late last year. http://www.reuters.com/article/permanent-tsb-gr-mortgages-idUSL5N1CA4G1

Not that I expect the quality of those loans to be any better...

 

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HOLA443
2 hours ago, spyguy said:

They do, they did.

They picked up these loans from UKGOV bad bank.

Theyv had arummage though it and either dont want it anymore, or most likely, Metrobank made them an offer they could not refuse.

Cerebus are probably pissing themselves down the pub - They bought the book!!!!

 

OK, that makes sense. I wouldn't like to be at the sharp end of any mortgage on that book though: Metro will presumably founder as things go sour, and be too small to attract a bailout. That debt could end up owned by any random collection of semi-legal thugs (and I mean that last literally, not metaphorically).

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HOLA444
10 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

August 2017 -  60 days, 1 lots of rent away 

  • Term Funding Scheme - to be reviewed (this is currently keeping mortgage SVR rates lower)

Feb 2018 - 244 days 7 lots of rents away. 

  • Term Funding Scheme  scheme due to end - higher SVR rates for those who can’t remortgage 

 

These two don't contradict each other do they? Review, but a firm end date? If it's not a mistake the wording could be improved perhaps? :)
 

 

 

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HOLA445
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HOLA446
15 hours ago, Toast said:

OK, that makes sense. I wouldn't like to be at the sharp end of any mortgage on that book though: Metro will presumably founder as things go sour, and be too small to attract a bailout. That debt could end up owned by any random collection of semi-legal thugs (and I mean that last literally, not metaphorically).

Thats the idea wit the 'challenger' bank.

Total patsys.

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HOLA447
15 hours ago, Toast said:

OK, that makes sense. I wouldn't like to be at the sharp end of any mortgage on that book though: Metro will presumably founder as things go sour, and be too small to attract a bailout. That debt could end up owned by any random collection of semi-legal thugs (and I mean that last literally, not metaphorically).

A most  BTL is concentrated in the 50+.

I think its legal for a bankruptcy to insists the the now bankrupt individual drawns down the 30^ of the pension and gives it to the creditors.

A bankrupt 5+ IO BTLer is going to owe a lot of money.

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HOLA448
11 hours ago, spyguy said:

A most  BTL is concentrated in the 50+.

I think its legal for a bankruptcy to insists the the now bankrupt individual drawns down the 30^ of the pension and gives it to the creditors.

A bankrupt 5+ IO BTLer is going to owe a lot of money.

Awesome :)

 

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HOLA449
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HOLA4410
12 hours ago, spyguy said:

A most  BTL is concentrated in the 50+.

I think its legal for a bankruptcy to insists the the now bankrupt individual drawns down the 30^ of the pension and gives it to the creditors.

A bankrupt 5+ IO BTLer is going to owe a lot of money.

I tried reading about this, seems something to do with over 55 year olds. some kind of check on applying for bankruptcy? From April 2015 onwards? 

any more details in a nice bullet point for the countdown? 

would be extra tasty if the boomers with solid gold pensions then doubled down on property (greed) and it resulted on loosing said leveraged properties (and main residence) and ALSO a chunk of said solid gold pension.

clarity please!

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HOLA4411
12 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

I tried reading about this, seems something to do with over 55 year olds. some kind of check on applying for bankruptcy? From April 2015 onwards? 

any more details in a nice bullet point for the countdown? 

would be extra tasty if the boomers with solid gold pensions then doubled down on property (greed) and it resulted on loosing said leveraged properties (and main residence) and ALSO a chunk of said solid gold pension.

clarity please!

Which bit?

Anecdotally and some forgotten article - most BTL are well over 40. I thnk the average BTLer is mid 50s.

Pension bit.

http://moneyweek.com/merryns-blog/think-your-pension-is-safe-from-bankruptcy-think-again/

 

.https://debtcamel.co.uk/pension-safe-bankrupt/

Case 5) Bankrupt after 5 April 2015 – new “insolvency” check

Here you went bankrupt after the new pension rules came into force. Whilst you are undischarged, Case 4 applies; once you are discharged Case 3 will apply.

There is one additional factor – a new “insolvency check” has been introduced for some people. The Insolvency Service’s guidelines state:

“Where the debtor is over 55 and has access to an undrawn personal pension fund … the official receivers are asked to consider whether the insolvency test has been met and, at the date of the petition the debtor is unable to meet their debts. In bankruptcy the official receiver will consider whether it would be appropriate to seek an annulment of the order.”

 

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HOLA4412
12 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

I tried reading about this, seems something to do with over 55 year olds. some kind of check on applying for bankruptcy? From April 2015 onwards? 

any more details in a nice bullet point for the countdown? 

would be extra tasty if the boomers with solid gold pensions then doubled down on property (greed) and it resulted on loosing said leveraged properties (and main residence) and ALSO a chunk of said solid gold pension.

clarity please!

The govt would favour this surely, a Tory one at any rate, as its a bail in.

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HOLA4413

Sunday - Horrible stuff happened in the big smoke last-night very sad indeed.
Added a small bullet point on Brexit effects, and 'insolvency check'.
Still pretty funny that a lot of these leveraged and recent BTL chancers (even the small time BTL goons),  will find themselves in a much worse situation.
Also very soon we have the FOMC meeting 13/14th June. 

June 2017 - 10 days, lots  of rent away

  • Fed might raise rates, putting some pressure on BOE to do the same.
  • Support for mortgage interest rate change to 3.12% but dropping to 2.61%

August 2017 -  58 days, 1 lots of rent away 

  • Term Funding Scheme - to be reviewed (this is currently keeping mortgage SVR rates lower)

September 2017 - 95 days, 2 lots of rent away.

  • Banks forced to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging, this is already starting to happen

December 2017 - 186 days, 5 lots of rent away. 

  • For those selling CGT due within 30 days 
  • All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlords

January 2018 - 212 days, 6 lots of rent away.

  • The 'Funding for Lending scheme', which has artificially forced down mortgage rates since its introduction in 2012

Feb 2018 - 242 days 7 lots of rents away. 

  • The 'Term Funding Scheme' due to end - higher SVR rates for those who can’t remortgage 

April 2018 - 307 days, 9 lots of rent away 

  • Start to build up even more tax liabilities 
  • Landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating
  • Landlords pushed into higher tax brackets lose child benefits. 
  • Support for Mortgage Interest (SMI) is only available as a LOAN from this point on, secured by a second charge on the property.
  • Glut of mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 2-year introductory rate will go onto SVR. 
  • Interest payments for Help to Buy equity loan start becoming due.

Jan 2019 - 582 days 18 lots of rent away

  •   Last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills this is the FIRST Section 24 (75%/25%) implementation tax year

April 2019 - 672 days 22 lots of rent away

  • Start to build up even more tax liabilities
  • Potential implementation date for Basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending. 
  • Mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 3-year introductory rate will go onto SVR.

January 2020 - 947 days 32 lots of rent away 

  • Last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills
  • 600,000 people have interest-only mortgages due to mature (a large % will be forced sellers) - this will be ramping up so technically this is already happening

April 2020 - 1038 days 34 lots of rent away 

  • Start to build up even more tax liabilities

January 2021 - 1313 days 43 lots of rent away 

  • Last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills

April 2021 - 1397 days, 46 lots of rent away

  • Glut of Mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 5-year introductory rate will go onto SVR

January 2022 - 1679 days 55 lots of rent away 

  • Last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills

Other stuff:

  • Landlords expecting 13+ weeks to sell, coupled with long voids as tenants leave when 'for sale' signs are stuck up.
  • Brexit, job losses, inflation, EU workers heading home
  • Due to new 'Insolvency check' Those BTL trying to go bankrupt who have potential access to good pensions, will find HRMC could take % of said pension funds. 

Plus already in play:

  • MMR rules
  •  3% second home charge
  • Political risk,
  • End of one version of HTB
  • Removed HB for 18-21 year old`s
  • FPC have now been granted powers of direction over BTL lending
  • Universities building own custom accommodation destroying the market for Uni BTL. (ongoing)

On hold until after election:

  • Landlords have to file 5 tax returns a year.

Some anecdotes of this can be found here:

https://www.propertytribes.com/understanding-the-impact-of-pra-on-landlords-t-127627442-4.html

"Just been turned down on 2 remortgage applications due to having too many properties. It appears that most lenders are now imposing a maximum number of properties of around 10.  A few are still okay for portfolio landlords but rates are far worse.  Best I've been offered is 3.35% on a 65% LTV and I have 999 credit score."

"Just watch loan book values evaporate when EPC regs kick in. Nearly 650000 rental properties don't meet E standard. Also when S24 effects hit. Also HMO licensing for ANY property with 3 or more households. There are going to be a lot of LL with unlettable property."

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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415
On 03/06/2017 at 8:18 PM, Si1 said:

What's the 30^ of the pension?

30% (!) of a DC pension fund can be drawn down out when you are over 55 (I think).

The Insolvency service will no let a LL  go bust without first getting hands on any pension fund available to be drawn down.

One theyve took a 1/3 of the pension, the OO, any cars and savings, then the LL can go bust.

This applies to publci sector/DB pension where draw down is an option.

 

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HOLA4416
15 minutes ago, spyguy said:

30% (!) of a DC pension fund can be drawn down out when you are over 55 (I think).

The Insolvency service will no let a LL  go bust without first getting hands on any pension fund available to be drawn down.

One theyve took a 1/3 of the pension, the OO, any cars and savings, then the LL can go bust.

This applies to publci sector/DB pension where draw down is an option.

 

25% can be taken as the Pension Commencement Lump Sum (PCLS) tax free. Pensions are ring-fenced though, even divorces tend to avoid touching them (rather someone gets the house, the other the pension).

If someone is bankrupt before retirement age then I think the only way someone could get their hands on their pension would be through an attachment of earnings or something similar. 

I don't think a DB scheme can go into draw down - there's no pot of investment allocated to the individual like their is with DC. DC on the other hand can be placed into drawdown once the PCLS is taken, or money is drawn from the pot. Perhaps if the DB is converted into an investment by taking the transfer value then it might be possible?

Of course the other issue here is people hit 55, retire, take their PCLS and use it to buy a fricking BTL. :( 

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HOLA4417
On 2017-6-4 at 2:42 PM, mrtickle said:

Look at the dates. If the Fed do raise rates, then it's on Wed 14th (https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168) and then the next MPC announcement is on Thurs 15th (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2016/070.aspx) ie just 1 week after the election.

You could almost say it's "co-ordinated".

 

 

No one saw it coming.

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HOLA4418
32 minutes ago, adarmo said:

25% can be taken as the Pension Commencement Lump Sum (PCLS) tax free. Pensions are ring-fenced though, even divorces tend to avoid touching them (rather someone gets the house, the other the pension).

If someone is bankrupt before retirement age then I think the only way someone could get their hands on their pension would be through an attachment of earnings or something similar. 

I don't think a DB scheme can go into draw down - there's no pot of investment allocated to the individual like their is with DC. DC on the other hand can be placed into drawdown once the PCLS is taken, or money is drawn from the pot. Perhaps if the DB is converted into an investment by taking the transfer value then it might be possible?

Of course the other issue here is people hit 55, retire, take their PCLS and use it to buy a fricking BTL. :( 

They are not that protected. And not now.

Divorces tend to split the assets roughly 50:50: one partner gets the house, one keeps the pension.

For a DC pension, the insolvency bod appears to be able to force a draw down.

For DB there might be the option to cash out the pension i.e. turn it into a lump sum, then force a pay out.

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HOLA4419
4 hours ago, spyguy said:

They are not that protected. And not now.

Divorces tend to split the assets roughly 50:50: one partner gets the house, one keeps the pension.

For a DC pension, the insolvency bod appears to be able to force a draw down.

For DB there might be the option to cash out the pension i.e. turn it into a lump sum, then force a pay out.

It would appear they are more protected now than they were before 29 May 2000:

https://www.pensionsadvisoryservice.org.uk/about-pensions/when-things-change/bankruptcy

In the money week article you hyperlinked it quoted the judge ruled that the bankrupt didn't have to surrender the pension (granted it went to appeal and I do not know the outcome). 

My other half informs me that these days the house is split in some ratio (through sale or buyout) and the pension is also split via the cryptically named "pension sharing order".

From what I've read it would seem the only way a trustee can take anything of a pension is either if the bankrupt was making excessive contributions prior to being bankrupt (that is to say they were wrapping in a pension assets they did not own) or if the pension was already in payment a deduction from future payments could be made to assist with the settlement. 

Perhaps a silver lining for us though.... how many times have you heard the phrase 'property is my pension'? I would be surprised if many of the BTL brigade had well funded pensions when they've been busy ignoring those most generous tax breaks in favour of bricks and mortar. 

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HOLA4420

It's Monday! and its raining Cats and dogs in sunny cornwall. Updated. Still find it funny than BTL pensions could be at risk! 

Well U.S job data was worse than expected, but the question is are the Fed going to keep raising rates so that they can then cut when the U.S economy is near the bottom (kick-start the next boom). or will then chicken out, and hold off until the crash is well underway and do the rabbit in the headlights approach. I think they will find an excuse to raise, or at least not raise, and promise to definitely raise next time. 

June 2017 - 9 days, lots  of rent away

  • Fed might raise rates, putting some pressure on BOE to do the same.
  • Support for mortgage interest rate change to 3.12% but dropping to 2.61%

August 2017 -  57 days, 1 lots of rent away 

  • Term Funding Scheme - to be reviewed (this is currently keeping mortgage SVR rates lower)

September 2017 - 94 days, 2 lots of rent away.

  • Banks forced to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging, this is already starting to happen

December 2017 - 185 days, 5 lots of rent away. 

  • For those selling CGT due within 30 days 
  • All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlords

January 2018 - 211 days, 6 lots of rent away.

  • The 'Funding for Lending scheme', which has artificially forced down mortgage rates since its introduction in 2012

Feb 2018 - 241 days 7 lots of rents away. 

  • The 'Term Funding Scheme' due to end - higher SVR rates for those who can’t remortgage 

April 2018 - 306 days, 9 lots of rent away 

  • Start to build up even more tax liabilities 
  • Landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating
  • Landlords pushed into higher tax brackets lose child benefits. 
  • Support for Mortgage Interest (SMI) is only available as a LOAN from this point on, secured by a second charge on the property.
  • Glut of mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 2-year introductory rate will go onto SVR. 
  • Interest payments for Help to Buy equity loan start becoming due.

Jan 2019 - 581 days 18 lots of rent away

  •   Last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills this is the FIRST Section 24 (75%/25%) implementation tax year

April 2019 - 671 days 22 lots of rent away

  • Start to build up even more tax liabilities
  • Potential implementation date for Basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending. 
  • Mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 3-year introductory rate will go onto SVR.

January 2020 - 946 days 32 lots of rent away 

  • Last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills
  • 600,000 people have interest-only mortgages due to mature (a large % will be forced sellers) - this will be ramping up so technically this is already happening

April 2020 - 1037 days 34 lots of rent away 

  • Start to build up even more tax liabilities

January 2021 - 1312 days 43 lots of rent away 

  • Last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills

April 2021 - 1396 days, 46 lots of rent away

  • Glut of Mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 5-year introductory rate will go onto SVR

January 2022 - 1678 days 55 lots of rent away 

  • Last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills

Other stuff:

  • Landlords expecting 13+ weeks to sell, coupled with long voids as tenants leave when 'for sale' signs are stuck up.
  • Brexit, job losses, inflation, EU workers heading home
  • Due to new 'Insolvency check' Those BTL trying to go bankrupt who have potential access to good pensions, will find HRMC could take % of said pension funds. 

Plus already in play:

  • MMR rules
  •  3% second home charge
  • Political risk,
  • End of one version of HTB
  • Removed HB for 18-21 year old`s
  • FPC have now been granted powers of direction over BTL lending
  • Universities building own custom accommodation destroying the market for Uni BTL. (ongoing)

On hold until after election:

  • Landlords have to file 5 tax returns a year.

Some anecdotes of this can be found here:

https://www.propertytribes.com/understanding-the-impact-of-pra-on-landlords-t-127627442-4.html

"Just been turned down on 2 remortgage applications due to having too many properties. It appears that most lenders are now imposing a maximum number of properties of around 10.  A few are still okay for portfolio landlords but rates are far worse.  Best I've been offered is 3.35% on a 65% LTV and I have 999 credit score."

"Just watch loan book values evaporate when EPC regs kick in. Nearly 650000 rental properties don't meet E standard. Also when S24 effects hit. Also HMO licensing for ANY property with 3 or more households. There are going to be a lot of LL with unlettable property."

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HOLA4421
9 hours ago, adarmo said:

It would appear they are more protected now than they were before 29 May 2000:

https://www.pensionsadvisoryservice.org.uk/about-pensions/when-things-change/bankruptcy

In the money week article you hyperlinked it quoted the judge ruled that the bankrupt didn't have to surrender the pension (granted it went to appeal and I do not know the outcome). 

My other half informs me that these days the house is split in some ratio (through sale or buyout) and the pension is also split via the cryptically named "pension sharing order".

From what I've read it would seem the only way a trustee can take anything of a pension is either if the bankrupt was making excessive contributions prior to being bankrupt (that is to say they were wrapping in a pension assets they did not own) or if the pension was already in payment a deduction from future payments could be made to assist with the settlement. 

Perhaps a silver lining for us though.... how many times have you heard the phrase 'property is my pension'? I would be surprised if many of the BTL brigade had well funded pensions when they've been busy ignoring those most generous tax breaks in favour of bricks and mortar. 

Your link does not cover the 2015 changes,

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HOLA4422
4 hours ago, spyguy said:

Your link does not cover the 2015 changes,

Correct. This one does and it seems actually the 2015 changes afford debtors even more protections:

http://www.penningtons.co.uk/news-publications/latest-news/the-bankruptcy-squeeze-a-blow-to-creditors-and-a-boon-to-debtors/

"Debtors are the greatest beneficiary of the proposed changes. The Government is keen to encourage debtors to deal with their small claims at an early stage before they spiral out of control. The planned increase of the threshold removes the threat of bankruptcy from thousands of debtors, forcing creditors to work with the debtors to agree flexible plans for repayment."

The government seems keen on protecting debtors and bailing out the creditors when things go wrong. 

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HOLA4423
13 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

 

Jan 2019 - 581 days 18 lots of rent away

  •   Last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills this is the FIRST Section 24 (75%/25%) implementation tax year

 

This date may be more significant than many landlords expect.  For those who have a larger than previous tax bill, HMRC will also expect a payment on account for the subsequent 2018/2019 tax year on this date.  Rather than just having to pay just the first year's section 24 increase, they will end up having to pay 150% of the first year's section 24 increase.  This will also make July 2019 a significant date in the countdown.

https://www.gov.uk/understand-self-assessment-bill/payments-on-account

 

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HOLA4424
2 hours ago, adarmo said:

Correct. This one does and it seems actually the 2015 changes afford debtors even more protections:

http://www.penningtons.co.uk/news-publications/latest-news/the-bankruptcy-squeeze-a-blow-to-creditors-and-a-boon-to-debtors/

"Debtors are the greatest beneficiary of the proposed changes. The Government is keen to encourage debtors to deal with their small claims at an early stage before they spiral out of control. The planned increase of the threshold removes the threat of bankruptcy from thousands of debtors, forcing creditors to work with the debtors to agree flexible plans for repayment."

The government seems keen on protecting debtors and bailing out the creditors when things go wrong. 

Err thats for the small claim courts.

Being several 10K/100k short on mortgage debt is a different game.

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HOLA4425
32 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Err thats for the small claim courts.

Being several 10K/100k short on mortgage debt is a different game.

How would it be different? I do not see how the law would change depending on the amount owed?

Further, the cases quoted in the article are the court of appeal. 

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