the_duke_of_hazzard Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 11/11/2017 at 8:00 PM, jiltedjen said: Quick update. Time marches on. Wont be too long until 'oh don't worry thats happening next year' becomes 'thats only a few months away' becomes *thud* 'dear, whats this big brown letter all about?, why have you gone so white?' November 0 days, 0 lots of rent away. BOE Raised rates to 0.5% Budget due 22nd November for some more BTL bashing! December 2017 - 20 days, 1 lot of rent away. For those selling CGT due within 30 days All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlords Fed expected to raise rates again putting more pressure on the BOE (now looking very likely) January 2018 - 51 days, 2 lots of rent away. The 'Funding for Lending scheme', which has artificially forced down mortgage rates since its introduction in 2012 due to end (News stories already reporting mortgage rates rising as of October 2017) Feb 2018 - 82 days, 3 lots of rents away. The 'Term Funding Scheme' due to end - higher SVR rates for those who can’t remortgage March 2017 - 110 days, 4 lots of rents away. Fed will raise again on the 21st March, 2018, another 0.25 %, to take it to 1.5 to 1.75 putting more pressure on the BOE April 2018 - 141 days, 5 lots of rent away Start to build up even more tax liabilities Landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating Landlords pushed into higher tax brackets lose child benefits. Support for Mortgage Interest (SMI) is only available as a LOAN from this point on, secured by a second charge on the property. Glut of mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 2-year introductory rate will go onto SVR. Interest payments for Help to Buy equity loan start becoming due. 2018 employer pension contributions rise to 2% and employee contributions to 3% less money for housing June 2018 - 202 days, 7 lots of rent away BOE follows the BOA who raised rates again December 2017, and again in March 2018 (BOE raising 0.5% to 0.75%) Jan 2019 - 416 days 13 lots of rent away Last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills this is the FIRST Section 24 (75%/25%) implementation tax year April 2019 - 506 days 17 lots of rent away Start to build up even more tax liabilities Potential implementation date for Basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending. Mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 3-year introductory rate will go onto SVR. January 2020 - 781 days 27 lots of rent away Last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills 600,000 people have interest-only mortgages due to mature (a large % will be forced sellers) - this will be ramping up so technically this is already happening. April 2020 - 872 days 29 lots of rent away Start to build up even more tax liabilities January 2021 - 1147 days 38 lots of rent away Last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills April 2021 - 1237 days, 41 lots of rent away Glut of Mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 5-year introductory rate will go onto SVR January 2022 - 1512 days 51 lots of rent away Last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills Other stuff: Landlords expecting 13+ weeks to sell, coupled with long voids as tenants leave when 'for sale' signs are stuck up. Brexit, job losses, inflation, EU workers heading home Due to new 'Insolvency check' Those BTL trying to go bankrupt who have potential access to good pensions, will find HRMC could take % of said pension funds. Plus already in play: MMR rules BOE started raising rates Fed raising rates 3% second home charge Political risk End of one version of HTB Removed HB for 18-21 year old`s FPC have now been granted powers of direction over BTL lending Universities building own custom accommodation destroying the market for Uni BTL. (ongoing) Banks forced to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging Landlords with student loans have to pay more back Bump for this essential thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stop_the_craziness Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I see the lettings fee thing never came to pass. Apparently it's still on the government's agenda for 2018 but I'll believe it when I see it. I also fully expect some new "Funding for Terming for Lending for Stealing for Propping for Banks for Crooks for Politicians for Idiots for Ever" b*llocks to appear shortly after the Feb 2018 stop date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Thanks, i need to update it. Anything on that list needs updating following the most recent budget? Anybody have anything else new to add? Personally my plan is to keep saving like a mad-man until early 2019 when the leveraged BTL fire-sale starts, as the list shows its all going to hit them hard this year, and keep hitting them hard for the following years. I have already noticed a lot of obvious ex BTL properties (cheap carpets, white walls, old kitchens etc etc) competing with probate sales a good 20% below the average 'delusion' asking prices. And right now is a full year before most of the leveraged BTL go bust, i can easily seeing pulling down prices drastically at the end of the year. Leveraged BTL at this stage in the 'game' are not sophisticated investors, those very investors will probably not realise that they are in deep do-do until they start to have similar friends screaming and moaning that they are going bust at the end of his year. I would say the leveraged BTL goons easily explain the last 20% of price rises, and this year will be when that suddenly disappears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 hours ago, stop_the_craziness said: I see the lettings fee thing never came to pass. Apparently it's still on the government's agenda for 2018 but I'll believe it when I see it. I also fully expect some new "Funding for Terming for Lending for Stealing for Propping for Banks for Crooks for Politicians for Idiots for Ever" b*llocks to appear shortly after the Feb 2018 stop date. No. Ban on letting fees is coming in next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 (edited) Make that this year. https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/letting-fee-ban-laws-unveiled-government/ Edited January 1, 2018 by spyguy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambie Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The Draft Tenant Fees Bill is still to be put before parliament (it is in the Draft bills section of http://www.parliament.uk/business/bills-and-legislation/) The consultation ended on 13th December - the results will be published on this page https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/mandatory-client-money-protection-schemes-for-property-agents So there is still a way to go, a white paper following consultation then working through the parliamentary stages, you can expect the (land)Lords to put up a bit of fuss and put it into ping pong. There is certainly scope for them to quietly drop this (as they have for other housing measures) so it needs the pressure keeping up. I fear this legislation has the whiff of the stick and carrot about it, designed to be quietly dropped or watered down to irrelevance as a concession for other priorities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Society of fools Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 hours ago, jiltedjen said: Anything on that list needs updating following the most recent budget? Anybody have anything else new to add? Well the Fed did indeed raise rates in December. The next realistic Fed rate hike is in March and it is looking very likely. Even at this early stage CME has it as over a 50% probability. Carney seems to be looking at what the Fed is doing with bovine insouciance, but I am wondering if he is as actually as sanguine as he appears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Society of fools Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Sorry JiltedJen I see you already have that in there. I think Housepricecrash.com should change the US rate they have on their front page. Isn't it still 0.25% ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 hours ago, spyguy said: Make that this year. https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/letting-fee-ban-laws-unveiled-government/ Excellent shame it does not say when it will be debated and the likely introduction date following said debate. For the next update i will make a stab/guess at the implementation date , maybe around November time. Glad to see its not died a death yet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 (edited) 19 hours ago, jiltedjen said: Anybody have anything else new to add? There's the changes in April coming up mentioned in another thread (was to do with HMOs - sorry, can't find it at the moment). https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2017/12/28/landlords-to-face-bans-from-april/ Quote Buy-to-let investors with certain criminal convictions will be banned from renting out property from April under new government rules. The Department for Communities and Local Government has also said it will introduce a database of "serious and prolific offenders". Quote Today the government has published a list of all the criminal offences which could see a buy-to-let investor banned from renting out property. These include stalking, harassment, blackmail, theft, burglary and handling stolen goods. It may not be a huge number of them, but I'd guess that BTLers have a higher proportion of convicted criminals than the normal population! There's also the HMO measures, which should have a wider impact: Quote Landlords will also need a licence if they want to rent out a property in England to five or more people from two or more separate households. Increased cost of licencing, they'll also end up on a HMRC accessible database conveniently in time for the full effects of S24 Quote Under the licencing regime, the government is also introducing minimum space requirements, which mean rooms used for sleeping by one adult will have to be no smaller than 6.51 square metres, and those slept in by two adults will have to be no smaller than 10.22 square metres. Slumlords are going to be in trouble. Edited January 2, 2018 by Guest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, highYield said: There's the changes in April coming up mentioned in another thread (was to do with HMOs - sorry, can't find it at the moment). https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2017/12/28/landlords-to-face-bans-from-april/ It may not be a huge number of them, but I'd guess that BTLers have a higher proportion of convicted criminals than the normal population! There's also the HMO measures, which should have a wider impact: Increased cost of licencing, they'll also end up on a HMRC accessible database conveniently in time for the full effects of S24 Slumlords are going to be in trouble. If enforced, that sounds like a big deal. On viewing some properties recently, the agent told me that the council (London, Southwark) was enforcing all the rules in sight, and that the environment had changed a lot for BTL. This was an HMO, and they were keen on us (a family) taking it on for a discount to avoid some rules that were coming in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stop_the_craziness Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 02/01/2018 at 1:06 AM, Lambie said: The Draft Tenant Fees Bill is still to be put before parliament (it is in the Draft bills section of http://www.parliament.uk/business/bills-and-legislation/) The consultation ended on 13th December - the results will be published on this page https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/mandatory-client-money-protection-schemes-for-property-agents So there is still a way to go, a white paper following consultation then working through the parliamentary stages, you can expect the (land)Lords to put up a bit of fuss and put it into ping pong. There is certainly scope for them to quietly drop this (as they have for other housing measures) so it needs the pressure keeping up. I fear this legislation has the whiff of the stick and carrot about it, designed to be quietly dropped or watered down to irrelevance as a concession for other priorities. Thanks for the detail. I will be truly astonished if anything meaningful comes to pass out of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 With amateur landlords and their tax returns... Can they fill it out online? Will that generate a provisional tax bill on the spot in front of their very eyes? Just wondering if we'll see the S24 penny starting to drop in early April, or will it be once tax bills arrive in the post at the back end of 2018? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exiled Canadian Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 7 hours ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said: With amateur landlords and their tax returns... Can they fill it out online? Will that generate a provisional tax bill on the spot in front of their very eyes? Just wondering if we'll see the S24 penny starting to drop in early April, or will it be once tax bills arrive in the post at the back end of 2018? If you do you return on line you get a tax computation that shows you how much you owe and when you have to pay it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDI Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 The self assessment tax bill has to be paid by the end of this month. There's also an additional payment due in July. https://www.gov.uk/self-assessment-tax-returns/deadlines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Just_Do_It said: The self assessment tax bill has to be paid by the end of this month. There's also an additional payment due in July. https://www.gov.uk/self-assessment-tax-returns/deadlines Dont forget when they get their tax bill Hector they'll be getting charged half as much early to offset what they will probably owe next year. Not a problem for anyone with actual cash or decent cash flow, a ball breaker for everyone else. You can of course reduce the payment on account but IIRC you'll get fined if you reduce it then original estimate is accurate. Welcome to the big boys world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted January 6, 2018 Author Share Posted January 6, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Dont forget when they get their tax bill Hector they'll be getting charged half as much early to offset what they will probably owe next year. Not a problem for anyone with actual cash or decent cash flow, a ball breaker for everyone else. You can of course reduce the payment on account but IIRC you'll get fined if you reduce it then original estimate is accurate. Welcome to the big boys world. Questions: 1. They are not forced to pay a penny of the new tax until January 2019 right?, thats the point the most leveraged go bust right? 2. Those doing an online self assessment may find out by the end of this month that they have a rather large tax bill coming?, see it on the screen in black and white? 3. Some landlords will get a letter giving them a choice to do a 'payment on account' in July of this year if they choose? or at the very least get a letter with the stated total amount of tax amount on? Basically, we know when the final chance to pay the new tax is January, but the 'wake up call' could come between now and July? I wonder how long until we get landlords posting screen-shots of their tax bill on other forums with such words as 'how do they expect me to pay this?' and 'this must be a mistake surely?' Very much looking forward to watching the slow car crash of those forum posts from financed white landrover no knickers nobbers, coming to the slow grinding realisation that they are not actually 'savvy successful business people' with a 'property portfolio' but actually just leveraged chancers who have been incredibly lucky to have been constantly bailed out of their own poor decisions time and time again. I think we are going to see a lot of cognitive dissonance, and denial coming around April onwards. Well at the very least that will be very entertaining. I still need to update the countdown. Maybe thats a task for this weekend. Just shows how quickly time flies, we have been counting down the days until these morons go bust since last April. Just imagine when they start to google the tax changes, best info will be on here! hopefully they will see this thread and realise its time to sell as soon as they can. Edited January 6, 2018 by jiltedjen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BorrowToLeech Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 (edited) On 1/2/2018 at 1:53 PM, highYield said: It may not be a huge number of them, but I'd guess that BTLers have a higher proportion of convicted criminals than the normal population! Whilst most landlords probably aren’t criminals (according to current law anyway), I suspect a high fraction of career criminals are landlords, and not just local criminals, but foreign criminals as well. As a result, the percentage of landlords who are criminals probably is quite high. It’s perfect for small scale mortgage fraud, which is far less risky than dealing drugs or whatever due to essentially zero regulation and barriers to entry are extremely low. Getting into landlording requires almost nothing besides the requisite psychopathic personality traits and the ability to sign a mortgage form. Slum landlords can operate cash in hand, and their victims are largely powerless, so that’s an appealing avenue for crime in itself. And then there’s the laundering of proceeds from other crime, from small scale cash-in-hand tax evasion to large scale international drug gangs. Opening an account with a financial institution is much harder nowadays, so what else are you going to do with your cash? Before its rebranding in the 00s small-scale landlording was always seen to be an activity on the fringes of crime, like nightclub security, debt collecting, and so on, and for good reason. Edited January 7, 2018 by BuyToLeech Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 On 11/11/2017 at 8:00 PM, jiltedjen said: Quick update. Time marches on. Wont be too long until 'oh don't worry thats happening next year' becomes 'thats only a few months away' becomes *thud* 'dear, whats this big brown letter all about?, why have you gone so white?' November 0 days, 0 lots of rent away. BOE Raised rates to 0.5% Budget due 22nd November for some more BTL bashing! December 2017 - 20 days, 1 lot of rent away. For those selling CGT due within 30 days All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlords Fed expected to raise rates again putting more pressure on the BOE (now looking very likely) January 2018 - 51 days, 2 lots of rent away. The 'Funding for Lending scheme', which has artificially forced down mortgage rates since its introduction in 2012 due to end (News stories already reporting mortgage rates rising as of October 2017) Feb 2018 - 82 days, 3 lots of rents away. The 'Term Funding Scheme' due to end - higher SVR rates for those who can’t remortgage March 2017 - 110 days, 4 lots of rents away. Fed will raise again on the 21st March, 2018, another 0.25 %, to take it to 1.5 to 1.75 putting more pressure on the BOE April 2018 - 141 days, 5 lots of rent away Start to build up even more tax liabilities Landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating Landlords pushed into higher tax brackets lose child benefits. Support for Mortgage Interest (SMI) is only available as a LOAN from this point on, secured by a second charge on the property. Glut of mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 2-year introductory rate will go onto SVR. Interest payments for Help to Buy equity loan start becoming due. 2018 employer pension contributions rise to 2% and employee contributions to 3% less money for housing June 2018 - 202 days, 7 lots of rent away BOE follows the BOA who raised rates again December 2017, and again in March 2018 (BOE raising 0.5% to 0.75%) Jan 2019 - 416 days 13 lots of rent away Last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills this is the FIRST Section 24 (75%/25%) implementation tax year April 2019 - 506 days 17 lots of rent away Start to build up even more tax liabilities Potential implementation date for Basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending. Mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 3-year introductory rate will go onto SVR. January 2020 - 781 days 27 lots of rent away Last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills 600,000 people have interest-only mortgages due to mature (a large % will be forced sellers) - this will be ramping up so technically this is already happening. April 2020 - 872 days 29 lots of rent away Start to build up even more tax liabilities January 2021 - 1147 days 38 lots of rent away Last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills April 2021 - 1237 days, 41 lots of rent away Glut of Mortgages taken out at the April 2016 to avoid the stamp duty charge which had a 5-year introductory rate will go onto SVR January 2022 - 1512 days 51 lots of rent away Last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills Other stuff: Landlords expecting 13+ weeks to sell, coupled with long voids as tenants leave when 'for sale' signs are stuck up. Brexit, job losses, inflation, EU workers heading home Due to new 'Insolvency check' Those BTL trying to go bankrupt who have potential access to good pensions, will find HRMC could take % of said pension funds. Plus already in play: MMR rules BOE started raising rates Fed raising rates 3% second home charge Political risk End of one version of HTB Removed HB for 18-21 year old`s FPC have now been granted powers of direction over BTL lending Universities building own custom accommodation destroying the market for Uni BTL. (ongoing) Banks forced to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging Landlords with student loans have to pay more back This was the last update. I really need to pull my finger out this evening and update this bad-boy. As i said at the start of the thread, time moves pretty quickly, we are already in February of 2018, the BTL selling pressure is mounting towards the end of this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stop_the_craziness Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 9 hours ago, jiltedjen said: This was the last update. I really need to pull my finger out this evening and update this bad-boy. As i said at the start of the thread, time moves pretty quickly, we are already in February of 2018, the BTL selling pressure is mounting towards the end of this year. Watching each of these little milestones come up is what's keeping me from going mad and just buying a house anyway because I'm so fed up. The weight of evidence in your summary means that it can't go on like this forever, it just can't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 And at the moment stock markets might be starting to crash also, another credit crunch with a cool 30-50% off houses also. depends how much they step in to bail out the banks though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 12/11/2017 at 10:06 AM, stop_the_craziness said: This. It's such a game changer I am pretty convinced it won't happen. Have Funding for Lending and Term Funding Scheme ended unscathed? What will it mean for folks with or wanting mortgages? Higher rates? Stricter lending criteria? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 51 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said: Have Funding for Lending and Term Funding Scheme ended unscathed? What will it mean for folks with or wanting mortgages? Higher rates? Stricter lending criteria? FLS is officially history. TFS due to close at the end of this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 1:06 AM, Lambie said: The Draft Tenant Fees Bill is still to be put before parliament (it is in the Draft bills section of http://www.parliament.uk/business/bills-and-legislation/) The consultation ended on 13th December - the results will be published on this page https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/mandatory-client-money-protection-schemes-for-property-agents So there is still a way to go, a white paper following consultation then working through the parliamentary stages, you can expect the (land)Lords to put up a bit of fuss and put it into ping pong. There is certainly scope for them to quietly drop this (as they have for other housing measures) so it needs the pressure keeping up. I fear this legislation has the whiff of the stick and carrot about it, designed to be quietly dropped or watered down to irrelevance as a concession for other priorities. How many times have we seen that?......talk about it long and hard enough, people think it actually happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 On 03/01/2018 at 9:31 AM, stop_the_craziness said: Thanks for the detail. I will be truly astonished if anything meaningful comes to pass out of this. It's inbound. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-action-to-end-letting-agent-fees 4 hours ago, jiltedjen said: And at the moment stock markets might be starting to crash also, another credit crunch with a cool 30-50% off houses also. depends how much they step in to bail out the banks though From what I understand the heavylifting in terms of risky lending has been moved onto the books of BS's.Nationwide (the national LL charity) has been very active. I'm not sure whether the political class will be as worried about their decline given the poverty of the salaries on their boards compared to Morgan Stanley etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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