What effect will the Trump presidency have on UK house prices?

[Kiwi Toast]

42 minutes ago, london_thirtythree said:

Do you think it's likely that Trump will raise Interest Rates?

Probably about as likely as May is to raise rates!

[london_thirtythree]

37 minutes ago, Kiwi Toast said:

Probably about as likely as May is to raise rates!

Well.. that would be 'not at all' then 

Feel a link to 'tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow never comes' coming on..

[MarkG]

1 hour ago, london_thirtythree said:

But with Trump, its how he could elected, adopting all the tropes of an outrageous reality tv contestant and constantly using hate or being a bully to get attention - I doubt he really has half the problems he claims with Mexicans, Muslims, NAFDA and the rest; but it worked in his favor to incite the masses against them to get power.

Trump won for two reasons:

1. He was the only candidate who was saying the things white Americans have wanted to hear a politician say for years.

2. Hillary Clinton. Such a lousy candidate that, despite the usual Democrat electoral fraud, she barely beat Mike Dukakis. So bad that she couldn't even get a majority of white women to vote for her, let alone men.

The Republican base tried to nominate Ron Paul in the last election, but the establishment closed ranks and gave them Romney. So this time they nominated Ron-Paul-On-Crack instead.

[AThirdWay]

1 minute ago, MarkG said:

Trump won for two reasons:

1. He was the only candidate who was saying the things white Americans have wanted to hear a politician say for years.

2. Hillary Clinton. Such a lousy candidate that, despite the usual Democrat electoral fraud, she barely beat Mike Dukakis. So bad that she couldn't even get a majority of white women to vote for her, let alone men.

The Republican base tried to nominate Ron Paul in the last election, but the establishment closed ranks and gave them Romney. So this time they nominated Ron-Paul-On-Crack instead.

A fair point. I did worry, in the event of a Clinton win, who the Republicans would nominate in four years time..... Somebody in a white hood I suspect.

[MarkG]

The KKK were mostly Democrats. They've always been the slave-owners' party.

I still think Sanders would have won, because he was appealing to many of the same people who supported Trump, but far less of a loose cannon.

 

[AThirdWay]

5 minutes ago, MarkG said:

The KKK were mostly Democrats. They've always been the slave-owners' party.

I still think Sanders would have won, because he was appealing to many of the same people who supported Trump, but far less of a loose cannon.

 

Almost anyone could have won against Trump, other than Clinton! Sanders appealed as a populist, as did Trump, so agree that he was the Dem's best shot. He didn't take the VI's money, the rest is history. Trump, despite his claims, did take the money, he's as indebted as any other modern-day president was when they took office.

The politics of both the GOP and Democrats have changed over the years (what do you think Lincoln would have made of Trump, Jefferson of Clinton?) but they are most definitely NOT an organisation that would support the Dem's today.

[billybong]

Despite Brexit and Trump happening in short order there's still little or no effect on the stock market - it's pretty amazing considering how such events were considered to be significant that is until they actually happen.

 

Edited November 10, 2016 by billybong

[GreenDevil]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/everything-soaring-trump-makes-buying-stuff-great-again

 

Inflation / rate hikes back on the table.

[MarkG]

17 minutes ago, AThirdWay said:

The politics of both the GOP and Democrats have changed over the years (what do you think Lincoln would have made of Trump, Jefferson of Clinton?) but they are most definitely NOT an organisation that would support the Dem's today.

Democrats still treat black Americans as their slaves, expecting them to keep voting Democrat even though the Democrats are importing millions of Mexicans who've taken the jobs black Americans used to do, and are ethnically-cleansing black Americans out of the areas where they used to live.

And Lincoln wanted to send all the freed slaves back to Africa after the Civil War. He and Trump would probably have got along pretty well.

Edited November 10, 2016 by MarkG

[MarkG]

3 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

Inflation / rate hikes back on the table.

As with Brexit, the globalists are going to do everything they can to screw the economy and blame it on nationalist voters.

[AThirdWay]

3 minutes ago, MarkG said:

Democrats still treat black Americans as their slaves, expecting them to keep voting Democrat even though the Democrats are importing millions of Mexicans who've taken the jobs black Americans used to do, and ethnically-cleansing black Americans out of the areas where they used to live.

And Lincoln wanted to send all the freed slaves back to Africa after the Civil War. He and Trump would probably have got along pretty well.

That's an interesting interpretation of slavery you have there, especially on the matter of the voting slave!

Yes, the Democrats are guilty of taking the black vote for granted, as labour did up here in Scotland previously, but they STILL get that vote. I can't see a Trump presidency making any difference to that. Trump will not forcefully repatriate 15 million illegals (Lincoln supported voluntary colonization, an entirely different thing), Trump will not stop the flow of illegals across the 2000 mile border with Mexico and Trump will not bring lost jobs back to the US. Trump may also relax the laws relating to racism and likely increase the protection given to both the civilian and paramilitary enforcement agencies in the US. I can't see your average African-American thinking these are good things....

I'd also bet good money that his 'opposition' to TTIP melts away like snow of a CEO's desktop!

[cashinmattress]

1 hour ago, MarkG said:

The KKK were mostly Democrats. They've always been the slave-owners' party.

I still think Sanders would have won, because he was appealing to many of the same people who supported Trump, but far less of a loose cannon.

I think most people would agree that the white house and the interns there have had enough of Bill Clinton's semen.

Sanders would have won, probably. Hard to say though. The real America so very far away from it's image, so much is completely destitute and much of their infrastructure should be condemned. Hillary was Wall Street and greed to the working man. Trump was a 'self made' celebrity in their eyes.

Hillary lost because her side didn't get out in numbers, their protest was to not vote.

Now it's Sarah Palin as the secretary of the interior. Buy fracking stock today.

I'm going to predict that the Trump presidency will give us more laughs and satire material than Bush, Bush Jr, and Reagan combined.

[Will!]

On 09/11/2016 at 9:39 AM, rantnrave said:

On a more serious note, BBC Business saying chance of a US IR hike next month now much smaller. Makes a rise here (even) less likely too?

I doubt Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has much love for Trump:

Fox Business:  Donald Trump Attacks Federal Reserve, Yellen During Debate

although

Quote

He also has praised Ms. Yellen, saying just four months ago that he had "great respect" for her and he warned that raising rates "would be a disaster."

Personally I think the Fed will raise rates in December.  If the economy crashes they can blame it on Trump.

[LondonBound]

6 hours ago, london_thirtythree said:

Do you think it's likely that Trump will raise Interest Rates?

The current guesses is that the election will prompt US Interest Rates to remain the same in December (whereas they may have gone up if Hilary/continuity had won) - then I guess it is up to Trump and the Republicans whether they will notch them up or not.

Don't the US need low interest rates due to their massive national debt mountain? (same as the UK)

Firstly it's the Federal Reserve and not Trump who sets the overnight Fed Funds rate. He has no direct control. 

And then the Fed (without further QE which is unlikely for many reasons) has no control on longer-term rates. That is down to the bond market... and it looks like the bond market vigilantes, sniffing reflation/inflation, are back!

Rates are quickly going to go (dangerously?) higher whatever Trump/Fed/BoE wants. 

Now plug that into whatever scenario you want to create.... This particular genie is coming out of the bottle as we watch today. 

[Will!]

40 minutes ago, LondonBound said:

And then the Fed (without further QE which is unlikely for many reasons) has no control on longer-term rates. That is down to the bond market... and it looks like the bond market vigilantes, sniffing reflation/inflation, are back!

Rates are quickly going to go (dangerously?) higher whatever Trump/Fed/BoE wants. 

Now plug that into whatever scenario you want to create.... This particular genie is coming out of the bottle as we watch today. 

Indeed.

Bloomberg:  Bond-Market Inflation Outlook Picks Up After Trump Victory

Quote

Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election is helping to drive the outlook for faster inflation in Europe, according to bond-market gauges.

 

[Optobear]

54 minutes ago, LondonBound said:

Firstly it's the Federal Reserve and not Trump who sets the overnight Fed Funds rate. He has no direct control. 

And then the Fed (without further QE which is unlikely for many reasons) has no control on longer-term rates. That is down to the bond market... and it looks like the bond market vigilantes, sniffing reflation/inflation, are back!

Rates are quickly going to go (dangerously?) higher whatever Trump/Fed/BoE wants. 

Now plug that into whatever scenario you want to create.... This particular genie is coming out of the bottle as we watch today. 

This sounds very likely.

the market picks the 10 year rate, and while I guess central banks can choose the maturity of their market prop up operations, there must be still a strong market element. 

As you say, this genie is coming out, and it will see mortgages changing very rapidly. And the prices of the houses in a road are set only by the most recent transaction. And for sure, long term cheap money has propped up this corpse of a housing market.

 

 

 

[london_thirtythree]

1 hour ago, LondonBound said:

Firstly it's the Federal Reserve and not Trump who sets the overnight Fed Funds rate. He has no direct control. 

And then the Fed (without further QE which is unlikely for many reasons) has no control on longer-term rates. That is down to the bond market... and it looks like the bond market vigilantes, sniffing reflation/inflation, are back!

Rates are quickly going to go (dangerously?) higher whatever Trump/Fed/BoE wants. 

Now plug that into whatever scenario you want to create.... This particular genie is coming out of the bottle as we watch today. 

Opps, yes - forgot that US have the same system as us with an independent central bank in the Fed.

If the Bond Market does influence Interest Rates up, then all bets on Stocks and Property Prices are off.. been so low for so long, will probably cause all sorts of chaos.

(but in a selfish way, probably would help me out quite a bit!)

[Richmond]

On 9 November 2016 at 9:17 AM, spyguy said:

Theyll shoot up - there will be a massive shortage of bricks as he builds that fkcing big wall.

 

Why use bricks when he can use cheaper blocks of £50 notes?

[Maynardgravy]

Cheaper still, he could use all those gold bars that Gordo sold off.

[MarkG]

10 hours ago, AThirdWay said:

Trump will not forcefully repatriate 15 million illegals (Lincoln supported voluntary colonization, an entirely different thing), Trump will not stop the flow of illegals across the 2000 mile border with Mexico and Trump will not bring lost jobs back to the US.

Trump won't need to forcibly repatriate them. He just needs to make life bad enough for them that they go home. Which just requires enforcing the existing laws.

And Trudeau and Mexico are already offering to 'renegotiate' NAFTA. Trump's not even in the White House yet.

Yeah, the wackos who want to see a row of severed heads of illegal immigrants along the wall with Mexico are likely to be disappointed. But I see no sign that Trump won't do his best to do most of the things he said he'd do. The simple reality is that any of them could have been done years ago if the Republicucks had the balls to do so.

Edited November 11, 2016 by MarkG

[South Lorne]

8 minutes ago, MarkG said:

Trump won't need to forcibly repatriate them. He just needs to make life bad enough for them that they go home. Which just requires enforcing the existing laws.

And Trudeau and Mexico are already offering to 'renegotiate' NAFTA. Trump's not even in the White House yet.

Yeah, the wackos who want to see a row of severed heads of illegal immigrants along the wall with Mexico are likely to be disappointed. But I see no sign that Trump won't do his best to do most of the things he said he'd do. The simple reality is that any of them could have been done years ago if the Republicucks had the balls to do so.

...yeah ...the PM of Mexico is already promising to help Trump stem the flow.....honesty pays dividends ...the elite politically correct snouters who have no experience of real life should take note ...and emigrate to somewhere appropriate ...maybe with the penguins in Antarctica....

[GreenDevil]

13 hours ago, Optobear said:

LondonBound

This will be the big effect. Since 2008 all governments have pretended to have financial prudence (while discreetly printing money), but Trump is going further. He is actively intending to go for a huge chunk of Keynesian fiscal stimulus. 

By being explicit it will push base rates up ( perhaps he actually understands how toxic the actions of central banks have been?).

If US base rates go up, then UK follows within hours.

And the 10 year fixed rates are all about the swap rates. 

So this could start an unpleasant pulling of long term deals, and that will surely hurt the market... and what's more, I don't think the UK government can do anything about it!

Trump is a businessman. If someone says I will lend you money for free he will take it as would all businesses.

Perhaps he understands the consequence. And doesn't care. After all he has all ready said beware I don't care.

[80sBaby]

On 09/11/2016 at 5:36 PM, LondonBound said:

Higher mortgage rates globally...

US 10 year yield now risen above 2% reflecting Trump's budget deficit funding gap. UK swap rates (and hence mortgage rates) already being pulled up with it. UK 10yr already up to 1.25% (from sub 0.8% post brexit) and could go to 2%.

3%++ mortgages by next year anyone?

Yeah....US bond market appears to be in open rebellion. US data is pointing towards modest inflation. if he undertakes a huge infrastructure building plan, I don't see how they can keep rates this low!

 

Anyone else hear the China were dumping US debt?

[80sBaby]

16 hours ago, MarkG said:

The KKK were mostly Democrats. They've always been the slave-owners' party.

I still think Sanders would have won, because he was appealing to many of the same people who supported Trump, but far less of a loose cannon.

 

Yeah, in Lincoln's times, but beyond that, the racists with the Democrats went to the GOP because democrats were not hardcore enough. It always amazes me, this aburd notion makes the rounds.

[Mrs Bear]

18 hours ago, MarkG said:

 

I still think Sanders would have won, because he was appealing to many of the same people who supported Trump, but far less of a loose cannon.

 

My sister, who's lived in the US for 40 years, is a staunch Democrat, and follows their politics closely, says the same.  

She's been saying for ages that given her unpopularity with vast swathes of the disaffected electorate  - seen as untrustworthy, cosily in bed with Wall St and big business, etc. - she  was always going to be a very risky choice.  However she did think she'd just scrape in.  Not with her vote - she voted for a 3rd party in what is a very safe Democrat state (Mass) anyway. 

In the aftermath, it's  driving her mad that so many are saying she was rejected because she's a woman.  No, it's because she was the wrong woman.