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80sBaby

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About 80sBaby

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  1. I disagree. 2008 was not recession in the classical sense.....we were looking at the death of the concept of fractional banking. Big banks were failing and if they were allowed to fail, it would result in a run on the other banks. If it had played out, it would be more like 30s depression rather than a cyclical recession.
  2. Sure....but surely that's private/corporate consumption(or investment). Not exactly Government (albeit government policy side effect!) Debt.
  3. I doubt it. It far more likely the Government would raise taxes. Or simple crack down on corporate tax avoidance.
  4. Wait....2000-2007 seems perfect in line with historical trend visible in chart. I wonder what could have happened in 2008? The one eye Scotsman has many faults, but his and Blair's response (along with US) are the reason we didn't have a depression. Did it come at a price? Was it cheap? These questions are debatable.....but it's necessity isn't.
  5. It was tapering off nicely, but the old voted for Brexit! In answer to your implied question....Gov is having to spend to stop the economy stalling post Brexit. Cameron/Osborne Moto was "Fix the roof whilst the sun is shining" May/Hammond - Sod the roof....grab a bucket and help me bail all this water out the house...we are flooded!
  6. 80sBaby

    US raises key interest rate by 0.25% - merged

    Only because of shocking underwriting standards, specially at subprime levels. - source: the big short :-)
  7. 80sBaby

    US raises key interest rate by 0.25% - merged

    Perhaps. However, you need a incentive to drive prices down. Even if mortgages are not available, lenders may not lend anymore, but they have so much at risk, they won't raise their floating rates without increasing defaults. Therefore, to force them, you need external drivers. To force outflow from bricks and mortar, you need base rate rise which makes buy to let untenable. Their sales will increase supply and drive down the price. Same was as margin calls force cause more loses than expected.
  8. 80sBaby

    US raises key interest rate by 0.25% - merged

    9-0 doesn't surprise me. Recent UK employment data was weak.....no matter how you look at it, Brexit is finally hitting the hard numbers, inflation is almost certainly dampening consumption. I await the post Xmas retail numbers....coz, i wager the recent robust consumer sentiment won't hold!
  9. 80sBaby

    US raises key interest rate by 0.25% - merged

    It has risen from a low of 1.18.....to 1.24....it's heading south again....but the small raise will probably be used as a excuse.
  10. 80sBaby

    US raises key interest rate by 0.25% - merged

    Irony is both! FED is going to kill the emerging markets (lots of people in borrowed in dollar but earning local currencies). BOE is going out the BLT out of their misery! Think BOE has some room to delay.....GBP has risen against the dollar in recent weeks.
  11. Well....yes and it isn't systemically important to the UK. Very limited operations in the UK. HK and Asians regulators should be soiling themselves!
  12. You are probably reading it right, but I think most banks have just implemented Basel II, but not III.
  13. Actually, not long at all. BLT was not considered corporate because it was mostly done by a person rather than a corporation. This was because of the obvious tax advantages.....those are gone and new tax means more people are going to move their mortgages to Ltd. Whether this will be in the corporate loan or corporate mortgage remains to be seen! However, within a few years you should see a move from personal borrowing to corporate on banks balance sheets.
  14. Wow wow wow! Ok, so BLT is now under regulatory and tax pressure!
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