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House Price Crash Forum

LondonBound

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About LondonBound

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  1. LondonBound

    Australia Faces Its Demons

    More from Reuters https://uk.reuters.com/article/2019/02/21/us-australia-property-investors-analysis-idUKKCN1QA2YA?utm_source=applenews
  2. LondonBound

    Purplebricks share price

    Shares 100.3p -37% £5 must seem a distant memory to Woodford.
  3. LondonBound

    Halifax January 19

    -2.9% m/m
  4. Foxtons profits to fall 80% (and the rest!) https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/uk-estate-agent-foxtons-expects-2018-earnings-to-drop-80-1.3777398?mode=amp
  5. I would budget 1% of the house for annual maintenance per year. Day to day costs may be low but a new kitchen/bathroom or total repaint or new carpets comes along more often than you might think. Especially if you’re married! Also look at how much of the loan principal you will have paid off after five years. At the beginning of the loan almost everything you pay is interest.
  6. LondonBound

    Realistic House Price Calculator

    Do I have to own my house to be a part of the community? As a tennant do you think I’m some inferior person worth less to the community than you? The point I was trying to make is that owning is a close substitute for renting. Cost for each should be similar (but not identical for many reasons as outlined). If that is true (it is) then a buyer should pay a similar (but not identical!) price for a house as a landlord (ie commercial buyer).
  7. LondonBound

    Realistic House Price Calculator

    Value it like you would a commercial property. Take the annual rent and subtract voids/ownership/tax costs and then divide through by your required rate of return. To get the max value for this exercise you can assume zero costs/voids/tax and use a BTL IO mortgage rate. That should be an upper bound of the value. Of course the lower bound could be significantly lower!!
  8. Cluttons (now part of Savills) London -10% https://www.propertyfundsworld.com/2018/12/14/271477/london-residential-market-fall-another-10-cent-recovery-says-cluttons
  9. LondonBound

    Interest Rates

    Ignore the official data which is months late... look at ‘real-time’ data instead.. CEO of Worlday said the other week that he thought the UK was already in recession based on what they see flow across their payments network people spending less JustGiving donations down 8% last quarter. People feeling poorer The UK economy is likely already slowing fast. There’s not going to any rate rises soon.
  10. LondonBound

    Nationwide Oct 18

    https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/uk-october-nationwide-house-price-index-vs-02-mm-expected-20181101
  11. Good Economist piece on the global housing market rolling over. Apparently London is 59% over valued versus income with the population expected to continue declining for the next decade. Oslo down 12% in the last year . https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/08/11/our-cities-house-price-index-suggests-the-property-market-is-slowing
  12. LondonBound

    Countrywide share price

    Here comes the emergency fund raising.... shares down 80%!!
  13. LondonBound

    House Firm Shares Tumble

    See Berkeley results out today. Forecasts profits next year to down 30%. https://www.ft.com/content/7b524d34-7452-11e8-aa31-31da4279a601
  14. Good news to start the week!
  15. LIBOR (USD and GBP) has been rising recently due to a series of short-term technical factors (including impact of IS tax reform) rather than changing rate expectations. See the increase in LIBOR-OIS spread. Mortgage rate pricing depends on the length of the fixed term (or 10 year rates if floating 25yr mortgage I believe) and is still dependent on BoE rate setting as well as other factors (term premium etc. ). Recent gilt weakness follows lower US Treasury bond pricing of late.
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