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House Price Crash Forum


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About LondonBound

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  1. I’m moving out from SW London to Wiltshire next month for all of the above reasons (affordability, pollution, overcrowding, crime etc. ). And not just us. My daughter has just finished reception at school and she is one of four out of thirty in her year that is leaving this summer. For the price of a pokey Victorian terraced house, my family can have a house that has twice the room and a garden the kids can actually cycle around. Yes the price could well drop this year (and next?) but it’s an easily affordable 20yr home not a financial investment. And having rented for five years, I can’t wait forever to deal at the perfect price. I have a life to live. London friends are almost uniformly jealous that we’ve jumped and those that can, are considering moving... Not sure who’s going to be left to buy all those overpriced rabbit hutches!
  2. “If you want to get wet, stand next to a waterfall. If you’ve want to get rich, go into finance.”
  3. Those 3,500 will pay over $1.4bn in tax and NI. More than paid by 250,000 people on an average salary. I hope the chancellor sends them each a Christmas card!
  4. Not if you read the article properly. “In October 2012, the overall number of vacant dwellings stood at 254,059. This figure fell consistently each year until October 2018, when it hit 216,186.” This represents 0.8% of dwellings. Given landlord voids, house awaiting sale etc., I’ll let you decide it’s relevant... or click bait.
  5. More from Reuters https://uk.reuters.com/article/2019/02/21/us-australia-property-investors-analysis-idUKKCN1QA2YA?utm_source=applenews
  6. Shares 100.3p -37% £5 must seem a distant memory to Woodford.
  7. Foxtons profits to fall 80% (and the rest!) https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/uk-estate-agent-foxtons-expects-2018-earnings-to-drop-80-1.3777398?mode=amp
  8. I would budget 1% of the house for annual maintenance per year. Day to day costs may be low but a new kitchen/bathroom or total repaint or new carpets comes along more often than you might think. Especially if you’re married! Also look at how much of the loan principal you will have paid off after five years. At the beginning of the loan almost everything you pay is interest.
  9. Do I have to own my house to be a part of the community? As a tennant do you think I’m some inferior person worth less to the community than you? The point I was trying to make is that owning is a close substitute for renting. Cost for each should be similar (but not identical for many reasons as outlined). If that is true (it is) then a buyer should pay a similar (but not identical!) price for a house as a landlord (ie commercial buyer).
  10. Value it like you would a commercial property. Take the annual rent and subtract voids/ownership/tax costs and then divide through by your required rate of return. To get the max value for this exercise you can assume zero costs/voids/tax and use a BTL IO mortgage rate. That should be an upper bound of the value. Of course the lower bound could be significantly lower!!
  11. Cluttons (now part of Savills) London -10% https://www.propertyfundsworld.com/2018/12/14/271477/london-residential-market-fall-another-10-cent-recovery-says-cluttons
  12. Ignore the official data which is months late... look at ‘real-time’ data instead.. CEO of Worlday said the other week that he thought the UK was already in recession based on what they see flow across their payments network people spending less JustGiving donations down 8% last quarter. People feeling poorer The UK economy is likely already slowing fast. There’s not going to any rate rises soon.
  13. https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/uk-october-nationwide-house-price-index-vs-02-mm-expected-20181101
  14. Good Economist piece on the global housing market rolling over. Apparently London is 59% over valued versus income with the population expected to continue declining for the next decade. Oslo down 12% in the last year . https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/08/11/our-cities-house-price-index-suggests-the-property-market-is-slowing
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