Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[14stFlyer]

14 hours ago, dugsbody said:

That isn't a negotiating stance, it is simply how the treaties of the EU work.

Btw, the UK had sovereignty in the EU, so your last sentence is misleading.

Ok. Perhaps “The U.K. cannot leave the SM/CU and maintain legal controls over business and trade in Northern Ireland” may be a better way of putting it if you are not happy with the word sovereignty. 

[miguel]

22 minutes ago, dpg50000 said:

Is it April 1st already? Like that's the major issue our crumbling economy faces.... I hope no voter is stupid enough to vote for them on the back of this.

Yes, this is why we MUST move on from partygate, so that government can focus on the important issues such as imperial units. 🙄

[14stFlyer]

21 minutes ago, dpg50000 said:

Is it April 1st already? Like that's the major issue our crumbling economy faces.... I hope no voter is stupid enough to vote for them on the back of this.

Sadly, stupidity increases with age, and I think it is clear what demographic Boris is after here. 

[byron78]

From the Russian Standard but:

How can we expect to fix issues whilst we continue to pretend they don't exist?

This isn't funny anymore. It's a cult isn't it?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

9 minutes ago, byron78 said:

From the Russian Standard but:

How can we expect to fix issues whilst we continue to pretend they don't exist?

This isn't funny anymore. It's a cult isn't it?

[byron78]

2 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Brexit comes up in conversation with international friends a lot.

They simply cannot fathom why the UK isn't proactively tackling and fixing problems etc.

I have to explain that two thirds of us Leavers still won't even recognize there are issues and that things have actually got worse...

Government finding it easier to continue to string them along than actually governing properly.

[dugsbody]

5 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

Ok. Perhaps “The U.K. cannot leave the SM/CU and maintain legal controls over business and trade in Northern Ireland” may be a better way of putting it if you are not happy with the word sovereignty. 

Yes, but that is just how it is when two different economic areas share a land border. Just choose two random countries and it virtually certain there are regulatory and customs checks at the border between them.

The UK chose that option.

[skinnylattej]

5 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

Sadly, stupidity increases with age, and I think it is clear what demographic Boris is after here. 

That chart is really depressing.

Please can you send me a link to the original paper.

[kzb]

1 hour ago, skinnylattej said:

That chart is really depressing.

Please can you send me a link to the original paper.

It's not as bad as that chart when you look at longitudinal studies:

This is somewhat biased, because the subjects actually have to live to 88 to be measured.  Perhaps subjects who die prior to 88 wouldn't have done as well.  But even so it looks like you can still be pretty good at 60+, despite a slow-down in speed.

 

[14stFlyer]

6 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Yes, but that is just how it is when two different economic areas share a land border. Just choose two random countries and it virtually certain there are regulatory and customs checks at the border between them.

The UK chose that option.

The point I am making is that NI is the EU side of the border - the EU side of the regularity checks, not the U.K. side. This is despite being an integral part of the U.K., and at least ostensibly U.K. sovereignty.

If you think the U.K. population voted for this situation in 2016 then I disagree with you. 

[Bob8]

8 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

The point I am making is that NI is the EU side of the border - the EU side of the regularity checks, not the U.K. side. This is despite being an integral part of the U.K., and at least ostensibly U.K. sovereignty.

If you think the U.K. population voted for this situation in 2016 then I disagree with you. 

The issue is that the UK population did not vote to leave the customs union nor the single market. It is deciding to leave these things, but leave NI in it that causes the difficulties.

[slawek]

21 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

Ok. Perhaps “The U.K. cannot leave the SM/CU and maintain legal controls over business and trade in Northern Ireland” may be a better way of putting it if you are not happy with the word sovereignty. 

The UK can do whatever it wants. The problem are the consequences. NI leaving SM/CU means a border between NI and RoI and breaching GFA.  Ditching GFA risk inflaming NI and antagonising the EU and the US. 

[slawek]

9 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

The point I am making is that NI is the EU side of the border - the EU side of the regularity checks, not the U.K. side. This is despite being an integral part of the U.K., and at least ostensibly U.K. sovereignty.

If you think the U.K. population voted for this situation in 2016 then I disagree with you. 

The NI population hasn't voted for Brexit. It is not against NIP either.  

[byron78]

Project Fear.

[slawek]

14 hours ago, kzb said:

It's not as bad as that chart when you look at longitudinal studies:

This is somewhat biased, because the subjects actually have to live to 88 to be measured.  Perhaps subjects who die prior to 88 wouldn't have done as well.  But even so it looks like you can still be pretty good at 60+, despite a slow-down in speed.

 

You numerical ability wouldn't be so good either. I would like to see what is the distribution of those T-scores. If very wide you have still a good chance to stay sharp. 

[14stFlyer]

2 minutes ago, slawek said:

The UK can do whatever it wants. The problem are the consequences. NI leaving SM/CU means a border between NI and RoI and breaching GFA.  Ditching GFA risk inflaming NI and antagonising the EU and the US. 

The EU can do whatever it wants too. 

And you could use the same words for the situation now with the NIP.  

NI staying in the SM/CU whilst the rest of the U.K. leaves means a border between NI and rest of U.K. and breaching GFA. Ditching GFA risks inflaming NI and antagonising U.K. and US. 

However many times you recut this, it is not solely a U.K. issue, and I do not accept that you can blame Brexit voters (of which I am not one) for the complete f0ck up that politicians have created and continue to add to.  We need compromise, cooperation and agreement. And ultimately we need U.K. remaining in the SM/CU 

[slawek]

4 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

The EU can do whatever it wants too. 

And you could use the same words for the situation now with the NIP.  

NI staying in the SM/CU whilst the rest of the U.K. leaves means a border between NI and rest of U.K. and breaching GFA. Ditching GFA risks inflaming NI and antagonising U.K. and US. 

However many times you recut this, it is not solely a U.K. issue, and I do not accept that you can blame Brexit voters (of which I am not one) for the complete f0ck up that politicians have created and continue to add to.  We need compromise, cooperation and agreement. And ultimately we need U.K. remaining in the SM/CU 

You are right Brexit in its current form is not compatible with GFA. That is the reality, a logical consequence of what GFA is and Brexit the UK decided to implement. If that is not what the UK population wanted either they didn't understand what they voted for or the UK government doesn't understand what the UK people wanted.     

NIP is the compromise, the new updated GFA, negotiated and signed by both sides for the Brexit the UK chosen.     

[kzb]

4 hours ago, slawek said:

You numerical ability wouldn't be so good either. I would like to see what is the distribution of those T-scores. If very wide you have still a good chance to stay sharp. 

I'm sure there is a big contribution from "use it or lose it".

After you retire from work, you are not going to use your higher functions as much.  Also there is likely a contribution from health problems and (lower) motivation.

As I've come to my present great age, it is noticeable that short-term working memory isn't as good.  That can slow things down significantly.  Apparently it is rare for mathematicians to produce a significant discovery after age 50.

[kzb]

4 hours ago, slawek said:

You are right Brexit in its current form is not compatible with GFA. That is the reality, a logical consequence of what GFA is and Brexit the UK decided to implement. If that is not what the UK population wanted either they didn't understand what they voted for or the UK government doesn't understand what the UK people wanted.     

NIP is the compromise, the new updated GFA, negotiated and signed by both sides for the Brexit the UK chosen.     

For a bit of balance on that outlook see this:

One of the more bewildering aspects of the Northern Ireland Protocol is how the EU was allowed to get away with rejecting all alternatives to its own extreme and ultimately unsustainable arrangements for a customs border in Ireland. Aside from a few desultory mentions in early UK papers, workable ideas for invisible electronic borders or legal enforcement were never made. There was little attempt to even assess these ideas. Even proposals from the EU’s own experts were kept far away from official negotiations. Any reference to alternatives to core ideas were met by the EU with haughty distain as ‘delusional’ or ‘magical thinking’.

https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/missed-opportunities-for-the-irish-border/

Also here is another of those documents that I made up and never existed.  This is the second made up and never-existed document I have re-found:

Exiting the EU – The Challenge and the Opportunity

An efficient and effective border administration eases the flow of international trade, driving GDP growth while enhancing the economic competitiveness of the country. It ensures revenues are collected and homeland security is maintained, whilst goods move ‘friction-free’ across the border to support industry and promote trade.

https://www.fujitsu.com/uk/imagesgig5/FUJITSU-Driving-UK-GDP.pdf

 

[Bob8]

4 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

The EU can do whatever it wants too. 

And you could use the same words for the situation now with the NIP.  

NI staying in the SM/CU whilst the rest of the U.K. leaves means a border between NI and rest of U.K. and breaching GFA. Ditching GFA risks inflaming NI and antagonising U.K. and US. 

However many times you recut this, it is not solely a U.K. issue, and I do not accept that you can blame Brexit voters (of which I am not one) for the complete f0ck up that politicians have created and continue to add to.  We need compromise, cooperation and agreement. And ultimately we need U.K. remaining in the SM/CU 

There is an inherent problem with trying to have trade barriers that are not a barrier to trade. I realise you understand this, but I do not think it is worth debating with people who do not.

[dugsbody]

14 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

The point I am making is that NI is the EU side of the border - the EU side of the regularity checks, not the U.K. side. This is despite being an integral part of the U.K., and at least ostensibly U.K. sovereignty.

If you think the U.K. population voted for this situation in 2016 then I disagree with you. 

The UK chose to leave the single market, therefore the NI / Ireland border needs a solution. There really is only one solution, and that is what we now have.

Blaming the EU countries for insisting on regulatory checks on goods coming in to their territory is stupid. People need to stop being stupid and start dealing with reality.

 

[kzb]

9 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

The UK chose to leave the single market, therefore the NI / Ireland border needs a solution. There really is only one solution, and that is what we now have.

See my post above, it is the second one up from yours, just before Bob8.

[dugsbody]

6 minutes ago, kzb said:

See my post above, it is the second one up from yours, just before Bob8.

The one from "Briefings for Britain"?

🤣

Yeah, that isn't going to involve any brexit fantasies at all.

[kzb]

Just now, dugsbody said:

The one from "Briefings for Britain"?

🤣

Yeah, that isn't going to involve any brexit fantasies at all.

Well don't tell me you read it, it takes longer than that.

The electronic border was the solution uppermost in everyones' minds back then.  Otherwise why was the current arrangement referred to as a "backstop"?  Also note this was a UK idea originally why did they even mention it.

[slawek]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

For a bit of balance on that outlook see this:

One of the more bewildering aspects of the Northern Ireland Protocol is how the EU was allowed to get away with rejecting all alternatives to its own extreme and ultimately unsustainable arrangements for a customs border in Ireland. Aside from a few desultory mentions in early UK papers, workable ideas for invisible electronic borders or legal enforcement were never made. There was little attempt to even assess these ideas. Even proposals from the EU’s own experts were kept far away from official negotiations. Any reference to alternatives to core ideas were met by the EU with haughty distain as ‘delusional’ or ‘magical thinking’.

https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/missed-opportunities-for-the-irish-border/

Also here is another of those documents that I made up and never existed.  This is the second made up and never-existed document I have re-found:

Exiting the EU – The Challenge and the Opportunity

An efficient and effective border administration eases the flow of international trade, driving GDP growth while enhancing the economic competitiveness of the country. It ensures revenues are collected and homeland security is maintained, whilst goods move ‘friction-free’ across the border to support industry and promote trade.

https://www.fujitsu.com/uk/imagesgig5/FUJITSU-Driving-UK-GDP.pdf

 

A smart border is still a border but less visible. It is a regression from what existed before Brexit as there are still barriers, checks and additional paperwork to do. The border can be implemented RoI/NI or NI/GB. It is more sensible to do this between NI and GB because of a geographical barrier.

The EU is doing what is best for them. Why should they bear costs of the UK decision? The UK didn't have to agree to the Boris proposal and sign the deal. If the UK unilaterally changes the deal the EU has a full right to change it too, including terminating it.