jonb2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said: You’re peddling a myth. https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/NatCen_Brexplanations-report-FINAL-WEB2.pdf ... mainly a right wing wet dream. UKIP & Tories make up the majority. Looking at Labour now. 86% of members want to remain. 76% of labour supporters want to remain. ... mainly a right wing wet dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cock-eyed octopus Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, jonb2 said: Umm, which of the facts about Brexit do you believe? Fox, Farage, Johnson, Redwood, Patel, Davies, Rees-Mogg, Tim Martin, Aaron Banks, The DUP, The Daily Mail, The Express, The Barclay Brothers, Murdoch - who else are you going to trust with your truth? https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-tweets-mps-cant-delete-shown-on-billboards-11609810 If it's none, what's the point of it? Britain has always been a trading nation. It's an island, it has to. But you guys just want to shut it down. You won't believe a hard Brexit until you've lived it - which is why it's an imperative. Or maybe you will just blame others?? I don't understand ? "Trust with your truth" WTF does that even mean??? And the second bit's just plain bo!!ox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chunketh Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said: I don't understand ? "Trust with your truth" WTF does that even mean??? And the second bit's just plain bo!!ox. Is it? WTO is not really all that, and I see no plan that covers its shortcomings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ****-eyed octopus said: I don't understand ? "Trust with your truth" WTF does that even mean??? And the second bit's just plain bo!!ox. Let me put it more plainly. What are you expecting Brexit to do? And do you trust the list of people I mentioned to enact it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arpeggio Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Chunketh said: Plenty of Labour voters are not poor. Give that the older people get the more they tend to veer away from labour and there aren’t as many well off young, this could explain the contrast. Edited January 18, 2019 by Arpeggio Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Chunketh said: Is it? WTO is not really all that, and I see no plan that covers its shortcomings. The WTO is just a basic framework which you use to build agreements around... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cock-eyed octopus Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, jonb2 said: Let me put it more plainly. What are you expecting Brexit to do? And do you trust the list of people I mentioned to enact it? I'm expecting Brexit to make my vote a bit more meaningful & give the present shower nowhere to hide. Ultimately I think it gives us the best chance of getting a decent government. And I wouldn't trust most of those people as far as I could throw them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, jonb2 said: ... mainly a right wing wet dream. UKIP & Tories make up the majority. Looking at Labour now. 86% of members want to remain. 76% of labour supporters want to remain. ... mainly a right wing wet dream. I guess if you take the lord Ashcroft analysis it’s 25% UKIP + 40% Tory for leave. That leaves 35% of everyone else (extensively not right wing). Is 35% an outlier? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chunketh said: Is it? WTO is not really all that, and I see no plan that covers its shortcomings. At least 55% of our trading stops completely after a no-deal. Technically we have no trade deals. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46917999 https://cer.eu/in-the-press/eu-has-36-free-trade-deals-non-eu-countries-will-they-roll-over-britain-after-brexit https://actions.sumofus.org/a/trade-committee-inquiry-transparency-and-scrutinyhttps://actions.sumofus.org/a/trade-committee-inquiry-transparency-and-scrutiny Looks like voting to shut it down to me. But we're Britain, we don't need no stinking trade. We can live on turnips and shoot strangers from foreign lands on sight. I am not sure I trust Rees-Mogg with almsgiving though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: I guess if you take the lord Ashcroft analysis it’s 25% UKIP + 40% Tory for leave. That leaves 35% of everyone else (extensively not right wing). Is 35% an outlier? This Lord Ashcroft? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/29/lord-ashcroft-praises-malta-as-base-for-uk-business-during-brexit https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/06/labour-calls-for-tax-office-inquiry-into-tory-donor-lord-ashcroft https://www.theguardian.com/news/video/2017/nov/06/lord-ashcroft-hides-in-toilets-to-avoid-questions-on-tax-video Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arpeggio Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ****-eyed octopus said: I'm expecting Brexit to make my vote a bit more meaningful & give the present shower nowhere to hide. Ultimately I think it gives us the best chance of getting a decent government. And I wouldn't trust most of those people as far as I could throw them. This would seem to resonate with an earlier remainer comment on here about how the referendum has exposed the inadequacy of our political system. Albeit they were coming from another angle. apparently France plan to get PR http://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/french-government-plans-to-introduce-proportional-representation/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said: I'm expecting Brexit to make my vote a bit more meaningful & give the present shower nowhere to hide. Ultimately I think it gives us the best chance of getting a decent government. And I wouldn't trust most of those people as far as I could throw them. Fair enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, jonb2 said: This Lord Ashcroft? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/29/lord-ashcroft-praises-malta-as-base-for-uk-business-during-brexit https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/06/labour-calls-for-tax-office-inquiry-into-tory-donor-lord-ashcroft https://www.theguardian.com/news/video/2017/nov/06/lord-ashcroft-hides-in-toilets-to-avoid-questions-on-tax-video Hey if you have better data showing the breakdown of voters - share it...! tick tock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GE is coming. Very slim chance we'll extend to July/end of year, but there's no way out for May with the current Parliamentary tribes/DUP leverage, so even then we'd need a reset. Some journos are beginning to push it...Politico for ref only... So deal or no deal, an election seems increasingly probable. Despite her protestations to the contrary, the prime minister may decide it is better to call one on her own terms. https://www.politico.eu/article/why-a-uk-general-election-is-more-likely-than-you-think/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 53 minutes ago, Arpeggio said: Interesting graphs Grizzly. Particularly how relatively few people that identified with Labour voted to leave, yet later graphs show the less well off people were the more likely they were to vote leave. Pretty easy to explain - retired households have lower incomes than working age households, retired voters vote predominantly Conservative, retired households voted strongly for Brexit. Same effect for the education graphs - the older somebody is the less time they spent in education. Those income and education graphs need controlling for age. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MARTINX9 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: I guess if you take the lord Ashcroft analysis it’s 25% UKIP + 40% Tory for leave. That leaves 35% of everyone else (extensively not right wing). Is 35% an outlier? Isn't the likelihood of having a degree linked to your age - and older voters tended to vote leave. Thirty years ago barely 10% of 18 year olds went to university - now its nearly 50%. Having a degree doesn't make you more intelligent - just more likely to be under 30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aheadofthecurve Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lots of encouraging news today. Business leaders are beginning to accept No Deal is the most likely scenario and are rightly preparing for it. Business ultimately just wants clarification on the direction we're going to take as a country and now they can have confidence in this direction. Always amusing to hear from Gordon Brown - I know that whenever my opinion differs from Mr Brown I can usually be confident I'm in the right. I'd like to propose Brown's Law which would essentially suggest any position Gordon Brown takes is the inverse of what the correct position to take is. The public opinion also seems to have swayed heavily to No Deal; they've seen the disaster that is the EU, the lack of negotiation, their poor economic performance and their certainly tumultuous future ahead. They are rightly recognising that tying our economy in to EU-dictated tariffs is the wrong way to go. The world is a very big place and locking ourselves in to a tiny political federation within will hamper the prospects of our future generations. The smell of victory is in the air and it's a fantastic scent to lead us in to the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, thehowler said: GE is coming. Very slim chance we'll extend to July/end of year, but there's no way out for May with the current Parliamentary tribes/DUP leverage, so even then we'd need a reset. Some journos are beginning to push it...Politico for ref only... So deal or no deal, an election seems increasingly probable. Despite her protestations to the contrary, the prime minister may decide it is better to call one on her own terms. https://www.politico.eu/article/why-a-uk-general-election-is-more-likely-than-you-think/ How does calling an election help. Both parties are completely split on the issue and it is doubtful whether A50 would be delayed to allow the UK to continue arguing with itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 (edited) 34 minutes ago, thehowler said: GE is coming. Very slim chance we'll extend to July/end of year, but there's no way out for May with the current Parliamentary tribes/DUP leverage I think there are ways out, May has options. ERG have shown they will vote against her no matter what. The plus side is it means she can just ignore their 50 votes and start trying to buy them elsewhere. Put Norway back on the table for the Brexit end state, tbd during the transition period. Lots of soft Brexit Tory and Labour MP votes in that. Offer the SNP another independence referendum if they will vote for the WA. 35 MPs there. DUP need a public promise that there will be no border (customs or regulatory) between NI and GB no matter what. 12 MPs there. Edited January 18, 2019 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 (edited) What good would a GE do? SNP riding high in Scotland in the polls, likely to take lots of those 2017 seats back off the Tories if a GE is held soon, especially if Labour and the SNP form some kind of electoral pact in Scotland to keep the Tories out. Could easily end up with another hung Parliament if SNP take seats off the Tories, Tories take seats off Labour, everything else basically the same. Edited January 18, 2019 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
localhero1983 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, jonb2 said: At least 55% of our trading stops completely after a no-deal. Technically we have no trade deals. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46917999 https://cer.eu/in-the-press/eu-has-36-free-trade-deals-non-eu-countries-will-they-roll-over-britain-after-brexit https://actions.sumofus.org/a/trade-committee-inquiry-transparency-and-scrutinyhttps://actions.sumofus.org/a/trade-committee-inquiry-transparency-and-scrutiny Looks like voting to shut it down to me. But we're Britain, we don't need no stinking trade. We can live on turnips and shoot strangers from foreign lands on sight. I am not sure I trust Rees-Mogg with almsgiving though. Seriously, I wonder how many people have changed their mind and turned to leave because of people like you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aheadofthecurve Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, localhero1983 said: Seriously, I wonder how many people have changed their mind and turned to leave because of people like you? My experience has been seeing exactly that. This is the first time a lot of people have actually engaged with politics and even gone as far as debating it with others. By and large what people tell me is that trying to negotiate with lefties is a bit like trying to have an argument with a goat; loud and amusing at first but ultimately it gets them nowhere. Where they may disagree with some centrists or right-wingers they at least appreciate the calm and respectful debate that follows. Edited January 18, 2019 by aheadofthecurve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chunketh Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Dave Beans said: The WTO is just a basic framework which you use to build agreements around... and we will have none going in. What's the plan then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dorkins said: What good would a GE do? SNP riding high in Scotland in the polls, likely to take lots of those 2017 seats back off the Tories if a GE is held soon, especially if Labour and the SNP form some kind of electoral pact in Scotland to keep the Tories out. Could easily end up with another hung Parliament if SNP take seats off the Tories, Tories take seats off Labour, everything else basically the same. I suspect both leaders are terrified of the prospect of a GE, either party could be destroyed over it. Polling shows Labour will be destroyed if it backs Brexit and lose enough votes to ensure they cannot win if they don't. The conservatives could split and even if not the influx of extreme Brexiteers selected by the +75yr fossils that make up the membership in most constituencies could make the party unelectable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chunketh Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, localhero1983 said: Seriously, I wonder how many people have changed their mind and turned to leave because of people like you? Does not mean they are right does it. Maintaining your position in the presence of factual evidence to the contrary is not "being a plucky brit" it just being a ****ing idiot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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