Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[kibuc]

3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I see you are out to prove the saying a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

The first "battle" Davis lost (on day one without even a fight) was the EU's insistence that this be a two phase negotiation.

Phase one is now complete and everything is agreed. The signed formal agreement includes the methodology for how we will work out our divorce bill (and will produce a bill of around £45bn) that is not subject to any deal on trade.

It also includes:

- a commitment that if no trade deal is reached we will maintain regulatory alignment with the EU (so the trade talks are now a no lose scenario for the EU) 

- exceptionally generous EU citizen rights (actually better than if we had stayed in on Cameron's deal) that are retained in perpetuity for anyone who is living here up to the day we leave

-  the ECoJ being the competent court for resolving issues for 8 years after we leave the EU

All of these are now done deals and no doubt will drive the Brexiters nuts when they get heads around it. Still too late to complain now.  

 

There's still an option of rejecting the deal outright by the Parliament, in which case all those "commitments" and "agreements" go up in smoke.
 

[Confusion of VIs]

34 minutes ago, highYield said:

Seems a long way from your quote of him saying "if we had known the UK was going to leave the EU we probably wouldn't have built it in London"  - do you have a link please? - perhaps his statements aren't so contradictory in context.

It was on a news report when he attended the opening event. It was a response to a direct question from a reporter asking if he knew the UK was leaving the EU would he still have built it in London. I may have paraphrased his response but that was the jist of it. 

Edit I have found a link now, I paraphrased from maybe to probably

 http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/brexit-bloomberg-boss-maybe-wouldnt-have-built-1bn/

Still given Bloomberg's view on Brexit he was probably just being diplomatic

  https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/24/michael-bloomberg-brexit-is-stupidest-thing-any-country-has-done-besides-trump

Edited December 8, 2017 by Confusion of VIs

[Confusion of VIs]

13 minutes ago, kibuc said:

There's still an option of rejecting the deal outright by the Parliament, in which case all those "commitments" and "agreements" go up in smoke.
 

You can take that view about every agreement a British government ever signs but the truth is we don't go round tearing up international agreements.

If you read the text of the deal you will see that these commitments are specifically worded to be effective if there is no trade deal. 

[ddd]

Haha. Let’s not beat around the bush. This is pure dead 110% fudge and capitulation by the Brexit donkeys. 

[Far Canal]

20 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I see you are out to prove the saying a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

The first "battle" Davis lost (on day one without even a fight) was the EU's insistence that this be a two phase negotiation.

Phase one is now complete and everything is agreed. The signed formal agreement includes the methodology for how we will work out our divorce bill (and will produce a bill of around £45bn) that is not subject to any deal on trade.

It also includes:

- a commitment that if no trade deal is reached we will maintain regulatory alignment with the EU (so the trade talks are now a no lose scenario for the EU) 

- exceptionally generous EU citizen rights (actually better than if we had stayed in on Cameron's deal) that are retained in perpetuity for anyone who is living here up to the day we leave

-  the ECoJ being the competent court for resolving issues for 8 years after we leave the EU

All of these are now done deals and no doubt will drive the Brexiters nuts when they get heads around it. Still too late to complain now.  

 

Can you confimr I'm still a racist as well as stupid as per your implied above?

I'll ask again. How does this "deal" affect houseprices?

[Confusion of VIs]

2 minutes ago, Far Canal said:

Can you confimr I'm still a racist as well as stupid as per your implied above?

I'll ask again. How does this "deal" affect houseprices?

Sorry I don't go around calling anyone stupid or racist.

My guess a hard Brexit would be down a lot if you are buying using $ or Euro, not so much if you are buying in £s. Soft Brexit probably little or no impact beyond what we have seen already.

 

[kibuc]

1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You can take that view about every agreement a British government ever signs but the truth is we don't go round tearing up international agreements.

If you read the text of the deal you will see that these commitments are specifically worded to be effective if there is no trade deal. 

My point is it's not an international agreement until it passes as law - on both sides. Hence, there's nothing to tear up just yet.

By analogy, the European Parliament did not "tear up" ACTA when they rejected it a few years back.

TM might have all the intent in the world to deliver on her promises to the EU, but ultimately it's not up to her, or at least not herself alone and people on both sides are aware of that.

[Confusion of VIs]

Just now, kibuc said:

My point is it's not an international agreement until it passes as law - on both sides. Hence, there's nothing to tear up just yet.

By analogy, the European Parliament did not "tear up" ACTA when they rejected it a few years back.

TM might have all the intent in the world to deliver on her promises to the EU, but ultimately it's not up to her, or at least not herself alone and people on both sides are aware of that.

It will get through the HoP easily because it guarantees at worst a soft Brexit - i.e. probably the only Brexit there is a majority for

[Far Canal]

6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It will get through the HoP easily because it guarantees at worst a soft Brexit - i.e. probably the only Brexit there is a majority for

Indeed that seems a likely scneario from what we hear.

Of the voting public (a massive assumption here) that say 25% are in each area of hard leave, soft leave, soft remain, hard remain. Has the appeaser gone for something to appeal to the 50% in the soft camps and hence keep their votes at next GE?

[sPinwheel]

Jacob Rees Mogg seems livid. What gives?

[PerfectCircle]

Meanwhile....

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-japan-eu-trade/eu-japan-conclude-worlds-largest-free-trade-agreement-idUKKBN1E21QH

Oh ******** I hear you say, but don't worry,  our fine negotiators will carve out a most favourable deal that will put this minor agreement to shame. 

Taking back control!

[IMHAL]

13 minutes ago, PerfectCircle said:

Meanwhile....

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-japan-eu-trade/eu-japan-conclude-worlds-largest-free-trade-agreement-idUKKBN1E21QH

Oh ******** I hear you say, but don't worry,  our fine negotiators will carve out a most favourable deal that will put this minor agreement to shame. 

Taking back control!

Looks like we've left the party just as they are bringing out the champers.....

[pig]

54 minutes ago, Far Canal said:

Indeed that seems a likely scneario from what we hear.

Of the voting public (a massive assumption here) that say 25% are in each area of hard leave, soft leave, soft remain, hard remain. Has the appeaser gone for something to appeal to the 50% in the soft camps and hence keep their votes at next GE?

Well the very public theatre of it was she was going to dump NI in favour of a Hard Brexit. Then didn’t.

Fecktards be fectards, little to gain from trying to appease them, so them aside  I would say she’s kind of trying to appease all camps. 

[Hullabaloo82]

On 05/12/2017 at 11:59 AM, ccc said:

The works eh ? Another reason we should be glad to be leaving this gravy train. No offence to you individually.

Why? Because, heaven forbid, some people might actually achieve decent pay and conditions? What is it you free marketeer types say about the politics of envy?

The sad fact is that brexit is all about keeping people like you couped up on the island so you don't ever realise what thin gruel this country serves up and revolt. 

As for the latest news about the deal, what mental gymnastics will you lot come up with to claim that this isn't a total humiliation for the May government? No conjecture about what brilliant stuff we COULD do with brexit please. We now know what form brexit will take and it's about as soft as possible. 

Complete waste of everyone's time and effort. Especially yours on most of the 1000+ pages of this thread. 

[ZeroSumGame]

7 hours ago, ExiledMatty said:

Feck Ireland. The most bullied country by the EU ever.

Contrast with....

Quote

Some interesting thoughts from a Westminster source with good knowledge of northern Ireland and questions relating to the border.

They argue:

The Irish government never wanted any east-west/sea border between which would have been disastrous for its own economy, but has cleverly used the issue and the DUP to completely outmanoeuvre the UK government.

No influence? 

0000000 5423 6b61 4265 6361 436b 6e6f 7274 6c6f
0000020 000a
0000021

 

 

Edited December 8, 2017 by ZeroSumGame
Farrago's capitulation.

[winkie]

.....remainders are not all moaners, the same as those wanting out are not all moaners......something to be said about saving the things that work and binning the things that don't.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, sPinwheel said:

Jacob Rees Mogg seems livid. What gives?

Don't know but I have heard the Tory Remainers have been told to avoid any gloating, and most especially on camera gloating.  

[GrizzlyDave]

Having spent most of the day chewing over this. I have to say I am pretty disappointed.

[pig]

Maybe Brexiters might now start to believe that having a viable plan strategy and vision might be of use  (no!! will of the people!!)?

[PalmerEldritch]

So can the 3 million already here still claim their tax credits and child benefit after all this?

[IMHAL]

26 minutes ago, PalmerEldritch said:

So can the 3 million already here still claim their tax credits and child benefit after all this?

Yawn!

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It was on a news report when he attended the opening event. It was a response to a direct question from a reporter asking if he knew the UK was leaving the EU would he still have built it in London. I may have paraphrased his response but that was the jist of it. 

Edit I have found a link now, I paraphrased from maybe to probably

 http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/brexit-bloomberg-boss-maybe-wouldnt-have-built-1bn/

Still given Bloomberg's view on Brexit he was probably just being diplomatic

  https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/24/michael-bloomberg-brexit-is-stupidest-thing-any-country-has-done-besides-trump

Ah, OK - ""if we had known the UK was going to leave the EU we probably wouldn't have built it in London"

Is clearly incompatible with what Bloomberg actually said:

“Would I have done it if I knew they were going to drop out? I’ve had some thoughts that maybe I wouldn’t have, but we are there, we are going to be very happy.”

Although, admittedly he was probably thinking something more akin to your - paraphrased - version.

edit: kind of funny that one of the masters of financial information didn't see Brexit happening - and he must have admin access to the coolest, shiniest computer models of the economy available to man.

Edited December 8, 2017 by Guest

[oracle]

2 hours ago, sPinwheel said:

Jacob Rees Mogg seems livid. What gives?

may is OUT!.PERIOD.

Her,hammond et al have absolutely no concept of what was demanded of them at the last election.

The likes of clarke jesting in condescending fashion that the result to leave was "an instruction from on high"

actually....it was!

[ZeroSumGame]

It's been a good day in NoBrexitLand, but this I particularly like.......Statement by President Donald Tusk

Quote

First, we should start negotiating the transition period, so that people and businesses have clarity about their situation. As you know, the UK has asked for a transition of about two years, while remaining part of the Single Market and Customs Union. And we will be ready to discuss this, but naturally, we have our conditions. I propose that during this period, the UK will respect:

• the whole of EU law, including new law;
• it will respect budgetary commitments;
• it will respect judicial oversight;
• and of course, all the related obligations.

Clearly, within the transition period following the UK's withdrawal, EU decision-making will continue among the 27 member states, without the UK.

Great! Another two years SM, CU and CJEU.  Gives me quite a bit of breathing space. And that's first up - BEFORE they go on to trade negotiations.

[PalmerEldritch]

45 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Yawn!

Great comeback.

Seriously I voted brexit partially to get rid of those taking from the economy rather than contributing. A large and sudden departure of those who can’t afford to support themselves without the help of UK tax payers could be just what the housing market needs in terms of increasing supply and reducing prices.

If benefits are protected then it’s a negotiation failure IMO.