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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by kibuc

  1. Precisely. Rich didn't get rich by catching falling knives.
  2. There shouldn't be any need for such position as Housing Minister, like we don't need Breathing Ministers or Shagging Ministers... yet. It's an artificial position, created to solve (ha ha) problems caused by inept Ministers in other positions.
  3. Can help but feel like I'm watching Big Short again, when Bale asks Goldman Sachs representatives about reassurances in case of bank insolvency and all they can come up with is "are you for real?". Housing always, ALWAYS only goes up. Yet when I'm flying from Poland to Germany, 100% over dry land, I still have to go through the life vest training. In the unlikely event of a water landing...
  4. You could say that again. No wonder people are still going after 600k London 2-bed flats. With 5% deposit and 40% equity loan, as long it stays above 330k they are golden. In fact, if it actually hits 330k-is, it would be a great time to do a swap with your neighbour next door and free the both of you from that pesky equity loan.
  5. I think they will. Carney cares about his image more than anything in the world, and right now it doesn't look good for him. He cried wolf too many times before.
  6. I would if I could, so you have to take my word for it - or not From a very quick glance: isn't that an agreement between a Funding Provider (Homes for England, I presume) and an Agent? While my sources spoke about obligations on the buyer.
  7. I think HTB would actually be a good option AFTER the crash - pitifully low initial interest rate only semi-linked to RPI combined with the 5-year grace period blows any available mortgage out of the water - if those newbuilds had at least an ounce of quality in them.
  8. I've seen a clarification on that which explained that it is, in fact, a non-recourse loan in disguise. If you sell at a loss with agent's blessing and repay your mortgage in full, you're now liable for the remaining 20% or 40% of the sale price. If you can cover it with whatever is left, you're expected to do so but if there's a shortfall then you just repay whatever is left of the proceeding from the sale and you're scot free, as long as you complied with all obligations towards your mortgage provider. If there's any ambiguity there, and if (when) the crash comes, I'd expect any government to disambiguate it as above, with poor, over-leveraged "homeowners" pissing their pants with joy and the hard-saving, non-gdp-friendly losers picking up the tab.
  9. That's not true I'm afraid. If you sell your HTB house at a loss (assuming that your HTB agent approves your sale price) and repay your mortgage, the agent will accept whatever is left and call it even. So a 40% equity loan actually gives buyers a 40% cushion before they enter negative equity. https://www.helptobuynw.org.uk/help-advice/selling-your-existing-home/ https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/Help-to-Buy-Buyers-Guide-Feb-2018-FINAL.pdf
  10. Spot on. They are businessmen for income purposes and charities for tax purposes.
  11. More importantly, having your STLD & furniture paid for by the dev allows you to put together a larger deposit, to get an even larger mortgage. Mortgage providers should see right through it and value the property as-is, ignoring any perks - it's their money and their risk after all - but it only takes one to accept the face value.
  12. Precisely. My first instinct was to say outskirts of Manchester or Bradford high street.
  13. You're getting rent statements? Fancy!
  14. "For stocks dealt before 1 May 2018 the exchange rate above will include a spread of up to 1.5% added by HL or a market maker."
  15. Falling demand for sure, desperation - not yet. That would be where they get "creative" and embarrass themselves with "an iPad and free avocado toast breakfast for a year" kind of promos. So far they've been offering to pay SDLT and maybe a "free" parking space, which is pretty standard for a slow but not-yet-desperate market.
  16. As I recently had to remind my EA during the renewal process, they provide absolutely no service to me. They prepare the property for listing so the LL doesn't have to. They list it so the LL doesn't have to. They deal with queries and viewings so the LL doesn't have to. They verify prospective tenants so the LL doesn't have to. They produce and negotiate the agreement so the LL doesn't have to. Finally, they handle closing the deal (signing, handing out keys, inventory) so the LL doesn't have to. Then, during the tenancy, they handle all the business (deposit protection & property maintenance) so the LL doesn't have to. On the other hand, I still have to go through the process, regardless of who's on the other end. I need to search for a suitable property, dedicate my time to view it, prove my income and residency status, negotiate the deal and then read it cover to cover. I need to turn up in person to sign it and collect the keys. I need to report issues as soon as they occur. What exact burden is EA taking off me that would justify any fees or charges?
  17. I went to rehab for gambling back in the day, a mixed group for all kinds of addictions so I met quite a few potheads there. All shared the same story of how it sneaked up on them, going perfectly unnoticed until some point in their lives where they realized they were still in the same spot as 5 or 10 years prior. Attention issues aplenty, and some struggled with putting together a coherent sentence. Having said that, they were absolute rock stars compared to most of the life-hardened alcoholics & shooters.
  18. The "fair share" of middle-eastern migrants for any European country is 0, so I'd say Poland is pulling its weight. If you're fleeing from Syria to Turkey, you're a refugee. If you then decide to hop from Turkey to Italy or Greece, you're a migrant. The only war-torn region that EU borders is Ukraine and Poland has already welcomed roughly 1m escapees. How many have other countries taken?
  19. You could say that again. On the other hand, they aren't any different to the ones she used to hear back in Poland. Under any latitude and longitude people seem to struggle with the same stuff, like parental issues, money, addictions, cross-cheating, married guys falling in love with hookers and knocking up both the girl and the wife in a single week... What is absent are any signs of anxiety regarding Brexit.
  20. She's a psychologists. Her English is passable but nowhere near the proficiency required to work with the natives. Language is her main tool of trade and it needs to be top-notch. It gives her a solid insight into the biggest migrant community in London, though. Naturally, she only get's to see people who can afford her services, which might be skewing the data a bit.
  21. Is it? Wroclaw's population went from 636 268 in 2004 to 637 683 in 2016. I don't see a massive exodus there. One could argue that migrants from the cities were simply replaced by fresh imports from smaller towns and villages, but that's where I'd have to question the logic - people in rural areas, often heavily deprived, battling much higher unemployment and a depressing lack of prospects, had plenty more reasons to emigrate, and they did in droves. Also, as an anecdotal evidence, my wife works exclusively with polish migrants and those coming from major cities are very few and far between. And she's gone through hundreds.
  22. Plenty of stuff to do and see in Wroclaw, which has just been voted European Top Destination for year 2018. I might be biased having lived there for over 30 years and working in IT where Wroclaw excels, but I found it a great mix of job opportunities and life-quality features, assuming you're willing to work. Very few people migrated to UK from major polish cities, as evidenced by their population figures since the early 90s. In fact, Gdansk, Wroclaw and Warsaw have all increase their population, albeit marginally, since 2004, and Poznan has been on a steady downtrend since 1990.
  23. I imagine so, although you'd have to exit the market at some point, and your taxable profits would very likely be even greater by then. This is where a spouse comes in handy.
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