Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[ccc]

41 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

It surprises me not one jot buddy; I also go on tour a lot, having played fairly high level cricket and loving the game.  I avoid the barmy army like the plague.  Nationalists then all.  So , no, not surprised one iota.

Nice that you follow the England Wales cricket team and mention xenophobia and racism.  Are you mentally deranged?

So we have Lots of Asian and Italian food and thats ok, but other european food, like, ****** me, the Poles, well, were being invaded.

You're comical at best.  You say you're no racist, but have spent the day vilifying the Poles, despite being a nation who aided us in the World Wars, most apt today of all days.

You're genuinely spending too much time both drinking and allowing folk to punch you in the head son. 

Vilifying the Poles ? The only negative thing I've ever said about the Polish is in general they are racist and xenophobic. Which they are.

How does that fit with your anti racist and anti xenophobic rants ?

Bit confusing for you no doubt. 

Also good to see you saying England cricket fans are to avoided. Nationalists ? Well funnily enough if you are abroad following your national team I think being 'nationalist' is a pre requisite....

33 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Have you forgotten about the Vote Leave 'save our curry' campaign, aimed at convincing people that leaving the EU would make migration from India easier?

No buses ?

11 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Here's a question for Brexiteers reading this thread- what new arrangements would you make to manage the border in Ireland after Brexit-- please be as specific as you can.

Not up to me. I voted for us to leave the EU. Up to those in charge as to the details of borders etc..

I really don't see the issue. Switzerland and Norway have borders with the EU and haven't slid into the sea. Im sure the UK and Ireland will cope just fine. 

[OnionTerror]

Switzerland & Norway are both in the single market, that's why its pretty easy to trade with each other...I'm not too bothered about the customs union.  Its for EU countries only.  The EEA agreement mentions tariff free trading anyway, that covers most bases excluding areas such as agriculture (which could be added via further protocols to the EEA agreement).

[thecrashingisles]

Just now, Dave Beans said:

I'm not too bothered about the customs union.

That's because you don't live near the Irish border.  You have the luxury of being blasé about the customs union.

[OnionTerror]

1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

That's because you don't live near the Irish border.  You have the luxury of being blasé about the customs union.

Nope, but I live in an highly agriculture-based part of the country..

[pig]

3 hours ago, jonb2 said:

Yes Pig. You're right - it does need rethinking and quickly. The anger is not going away until societal injustice is minimised and better levelling takes place. How the current mob of leaders cannot see this just compounds the issue. Johnson, Patel, Farage, Gove, Redwood etc just keep on behaving as though they are on stage, acting a farce without an audience. It's tragic we can't do better than this.

Just finishing watching a long documentary on Putin. A master manipulator miles ahead of most of the western politicians. Greedy for power and dangerous as he wants revenge for Russia being shafted by the west, on more than one occasion. There is no doubt in my mind he's been very active in stirring trouble and polarising people in the EU and USA. It's what I would do in his position. Plus he came from very little and worked his way up. I would hate to live in Russia, as Putin has brought even more misery to the common man, despite propaganda claims otherwise.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Putin-Back-Jean-Michel-Carré/dp/B01NBEJP1Z/

https://www.byline.com/column/67/article/1936

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/columnists/investigation-russias-role-brexit-vote/

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/10/media/russia-brexit-tweets/index.html

Looking at Gove the gormless this morning. I despair this worm is even allowed the air-time. He has no relevant experience of anything useful or real-life. I remember when Portillo left and went and lived with some poorer families how much that changed him. We need more of this hands-on policy.

And Johnson is lauded for speaking 6 languages and able to quote from the classics - so what? He doesn't speak understandingly for the common man. Just himself and his chance's of using his todger again.

The whole thing is mad. Only those steering the UK against the rocks can truly answer why. I suspect they have a personal wealth plan.

And of course - the wonderfully warming headlines keep on coming

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-08/u-k-has-10-times-more-to-lose-than-germany-from-no-deal-brexit

https://news.sky.com/story/british-meps-in-line-for-83646m-golden-goodbye-when-uk-leaves-eu-11123258

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-must-start-preparing-for-dover-chaos-in-event-of-a-no-deal-a8023976.html

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/12/how-will-britain-find-a-place-in-the-world-brexit

 

 

I probably should look at the documentary but a cursory look at the geopolitics and.ideologies seems to starkly indicate that the reason why Mr America First and Mr Pollonium 225 want the break-up of the EU is not for the good of Europeans (for confused Brexiters that means the UK too )

How that steps down into our politics seems to be the idea that the country can be generally shafted  for the benefit of the elite and their craven self-serving ideologies. All ‘red’ tape means to these hyenas - whether we’re talking the EU, the NHS or on the other hand zero hour contracts or tax avoidance - is some ‘socialist’ restriction on empowering oligarchs. 

I actually thought back in 2008-2012 ish that everything could/would slowly rectify - yep and centred around a reigning in of the multiple issues around hpi mania.

Jesus wept.

 

[Thorn]

Lots and lots of business happens daily across the border. It didn't really get much of a mention during the referendum.

 

[ExiledMatty]

52 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Here's a question for Brexiteers reading this thread- what new arrangements would you make to manage the border in Ireland after Brexit-- please be as specific as you can.

Hard border and nothing less. Ireland will suffer more economically. If they don't like it then they must also leave the EU and join us.

I think some of the Scando countries will leave eventually. They don't need the EU or the millions of economic migrants from third world nations like Greece or Bulgaria.

Just wait until the Turks join! 80 million unwashed religious nuts coming over to milk the systems and cause havoc.

[Noallegiance]

Hard border for vans and lorries, toll style border for small vehicles with a right to check anything and everything on all vehicles.

[thecrashingisles]

21 minutes ago, ExiledMatty said:

Hard border and nothing less. Ireland will suffer more economically. If they don't like it then they must also leave the EU and join us.

I think some of the Scando countries will leave eventually. They don't need the EU or the millions of economic migrants from third world nations like Greece or Bulgaria.

Just wait until the Turks join! 80 million unwashed religious nuts coming over to milk the systems and cause havoc.

1/10.  Needs work.  The implication that countries like France are not third world shows too much worldliness to convince as a true Brexiteer.

[Option5]

52 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Switzerland & Norway are both in the single market, that's why its pretty easy to trade with each other...I'm not too bothered about the customs union.  Its for EU countries only.  The EEA agreement mentions tariff free trading anyway, that covers most bases excluding areas such as agriculture (which could be added via further protocols to the EEA agreement).

Not quite, both have customs posts and check at will. As an aside technically you need a proper GB sticker to take your British car into Switzerland, the number plate "add on" isn't legally accepted.

[OnionTerror]

24 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Not quite, both have customs posts and check at will. As an aside technically you need a proper GB sticker to take your British car into Switzerland, the number plate "add on" isn't legally accepted.

Norway has negotiated an agreement, which allows the export of agriculture products (which AFAIK comes under protocol 3 of the EEA)...I can't see a reason why this cannot be extended...

https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/eu-and-norway-conclude-negotiations-enhance-trade-agricultural-products-2017-apr-07_en

Edited November 12, 2017 by Dave Beans

[macca13]

5 hours ago, pig said:

I do agree with most of the above and can see how much of it has dragged us into the current predicament - but I’m back from a Remembrance Sunday event and reading ccc sweating away trying to hide Brexit related xenophobia (maybe I should have avoid this thread altogether lol!). 

Can’t help but often suspect a fake concern for our problems as a justification for Brexit. Johnson’s volte face over TTIP is kind of exemplary.

Also times being tough is not an excuse for abandoning values - quite the opposite.     I’m not sure xenophobia has ‘increased’, so much as the nastiness that’s always been there has become more overt - weaponised by the unprincipled to achieve objectives that p1ss all over the issues you raised.

Having been prodded over hundreds of pages on this thread, when you strip away the wilful credulity (and er the more unpleasant stuff!) exhibited by many Brexiters what you seem to have left is a rump of fearful  ‘anglosexuals’, with many parallels to Trumps base. Britain First are screaming we are being replaced by Muslims after all.

Trump not being fit to govern is similar to Brexit not being fit to be inflicted on this country - both their constituencies are relatively  unconcerned and can hear only their respective dog-whistles. That’s a major political problem I think needs addressing.

Have you ever lived in a multi cultural area? I have had a knife thrusted at me, been locked in a nightclub because of a gun fight in the car park (Atlantis Croydon)... seen gangs throwing each other over my car bonnet.. 

I’m fedup with being told how enriching it all is by the polical class on TV.. I’m told to celebrate.. 

gun crime, knife crime, fgm, honour killings, acid attacks, forced arranged marriage, gang violence, segregation, religion, overpopulation, increase pollution, increased journey times and collapsing services. I feel so enriched! 

adding more people will make the country worse! I don’t care about the economy, it’s for the rich not the working.. so leave the EU and close the boarders to everyone.. I really could not care less.. 

steven Hawkins said the other day, we have about 600 years to find another planet as overpopulation has destroyed this one! Well done for caring about other people, you are such a better person than me..

I care about the 15 million trees we cut down each year, care about the sea full of plastic or unbreathable air according to the world health organisation, care about 50% of the worlds species being extinct by 2100.. care about something useful that will stop us destroying ourselves and our planet.. not about the stupid pointless invention that is the economy and mass importation of people to drive cheap labour.. that makes things a million times worse! 

We need to encourage less reproduction, and ditch capitalism that requires ever growing populations to buy ever pointless crap they don’t need! 

[mathschoc]

44 minutes ago, macca13 said:

I care about the 15 million trees we cut down each year, care about the sea full of plastic or unbreathable air according to the world health organisation, care about 50% of the worlds species being extinct by 2100.. care about something useful that will stop us destroying ourselves and our planet.. not about the stupid pointless invention that is the economy and mass importation of people to drive cheap labour.. that makes things a million times worse! 

We need to encourage less reproduction, and ditch capitalism that requires ever growing populations to buy ever pointless crap they don’t need! 

+1

 

[HairyOb1]

11 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Q: What do you call a fact that hasn't happened?

A: A nailed on Remainer bleat

Remainers claiming the sky will fall down on the UK isn't factual. It's a prediction. Predictions rock. All the time.

So you're saying all of the things that the Remain camp would say would happen, aren't starting to happen?  

Delusional.

10 hours ago, ccc said:

Vilifying the Poles ? The only negative thing I've ever said about the Polish is in general they are racist and xenophobic. Which they are.

How does that fit with your anti racist and anti xenophobic rants ?

Bit confusing for you no doubt. 

Also good to see you saying England cricket fans are to avoided. Nationalists ? Well funnily enough if you are abroad following your national team I think being 'nationalist' is a pre requisite....

I really don't see the issue. Switzerland and Norway have borders with the EU and haven't slid into the sea. Im sure the UK and Ireland will cope just fine. 

You've been carping on about Poles for months now and you are a nailed on xenophobe and racist, just from the language you use and what you imply, thinking you can hide behind it.  

No, you can simply like cricket.  I have seen England play on 4 continents, in 8 countries.  I don't sit there boorishly drinking myself sick singing monotonously about how great England is and how shit everywhere else is.  Oh, hang on, I think I see why you like it now.

Switzerland and Norway pay almost as much as us to trade with the EU, have to conform to all EU standards and allow freedom of movement.  Pretty much EU membership without any benefit of membership.  Norway actually slavishly puts any new EU laws slavishly onto its laws.  So this is what you want now 

10 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Switzerland & Norway are both in the single market, that's why its pretty easy to trade with each other...I'm not too bothered about the customs union.  Its for EU countries only.  The EEA agreement mentions tariff free trading anyway, that covers most bases excluding areas such as agriculture (which could be added via further protocols to the EEA agreement).

Repeating, just for you:

Switzerland and Norway pay almost as much as us to trade with the EU, have to conform to all EU standards and allow freedom of movement.  Pretty much EU membership without any benefit of membership.  Norway actually slavishly puts any new EU laws slavishly onto its laws.

[OnionTerror]

49 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

So you're saying all of the things that the Remain camp would say would happen, aren't starting to happen?  

Delusional.

You've been carping on about Poles for months now and you are a nailed on xenophobe and racist, just from the language you use and what you imply, thinking you can hide behind it.  

No, you can simply like cricket.  I have seen England play on 4 continents, in 8 countries.  I don't sit there boorishly drinking myself sick singing monotonously about how great England is and how shit everywhere else is.  Oh, hang on, I think I see why you like it now.

Switzerland and Norway pay almost as much as us to trade with the EU, have to conform to all EU standards and allow freedom of movement.  Pretty much EU membership without any benefit of membership.  Norway actually slavishly puts any new EU laws slavishly onto its laws.  So this is what you want now 

Repeating, just for you:

Switzerland and Norway pay almost as much as us to trade with the EU, have to conform to all EU standards and allow freedom of movement.  Pretty much EU membership without any benefit of membership.  Norway actually slavishly puts any new EU laws slavishly onto its laws.

When we are a third country, we will still have to conform to EU law in order to sell into the single market...There are now two options - WTO or EEA. Thats it.  The WTO isn't even an option, seeing its only a basic framework in order to arrange trade deals.  There is no time for a bespoke deal, especially for the transitional phase.  EEA is not EU membership, and is a highly tweakable, and the FoM problem can be solved through it.  The alternative to EEA during the transitional phase is?

Edited November 13, 2017 by Dave Beans

[HairyOb1]

14 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

When we are a third country, we will still have to conform to EU law in order to sell into the single market...There are now two options - WTO or EEA. Thats it.  The WTO isn't even an option, seeing its only a basic framework in order to arrange trade deals.  There is no time for a bespoke deal, especially for the transitional phase.  EEA is not EU membership, and is a highly tweakable, and the FoM problem can be solved through it.  It is suboptimal, but that is all we have got, potentially if we want to prevent £400bn worth of damage to the economy in the first year under WTO.   The alternative to EEA during the transitional phase is?

There are 3.  WTO (hard brexit - no deal), EEA (soft brexit - negotiated deal) and not leaving by rescinding Article 50, whose support grows daily even in Westminster.  There are a lot of Conservative MP's who are calling for a vote on the final deal in parliament, where they can say no, we're not leaving, not based on that.

We cannot stop FOM if we move to the EEA deal, switzerland tried and failed; Lichtenstein is, form memory, the only country that has limited for due to its small size and that mass migration would change the culture of the country.  We also have to kow tow to the ECJ which was another red line.  So many red lines exist with the EEA option, that I think it's dead in the water.

I think, realistically, we have two options though: WTO and rescinding Article 50.  If the cons do not force a vote on the final deal, then it's WTO all the way and we're shafted.  However, with only a technical majority of, I think 6, it will not take too many defectors to stop it in the water.

[jonb2]

11 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

1/10.  Needs work.  The implication that countries like France are not third world shows too much worldliness to convince as a true Brexiteer.

Don't bother replying to Matt TCI, he's A without the I.

[ZeroSumGame]

Quote

Britain Won't Offer a New Figure on Brexit Bill to Unlock Talks: Minister.....MSM

Looking like a fast exit rather than Brexit. No Deal !

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

So you're saying all of the things that the Remain camp would say would happen, aren't starting to happen?  

Delusional.

 

You'll have to list them. Then we can look at whether events were going to happen anyway or be pinned to the fabulously convenient Brexit scapegoat. 

This is all still very early days.

Spend the next 40 years on here whining if you like.

If in that time things don't settled down to a new and acceptable norm, then I'll have a rethink. If we were all as scared as you, nothing would happen. Ever.

[HairyOb1]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

You'll have to list them. Then we can look at whether events were going to happen anyway or be pinned to the fabulously convenient Brexit scapegoat. 

This is all still very early days.

Spend the next 40 years on here whining if you like.

If in that time things don't settled down to a new and acceptable norm, then I'll have a rethink. If we were all as scared as you, nothing would happen. Ever.

I don't know, inflation rising, growth stalling, currency devaluing just to mention 3 off the top of my head, with more to follow.

The bit that really does make me laugh though, is that you're defending this as some kind of macho thing, as though leaping into the dark is a good thing to do.  It isn't, it's economic suicide; even Redwood, arch brexiteer who has a side line of advising investors through his alternative work as a financial advisor to Goldman Sachs, has said to all his investors, you should not be investing in the UK, but the EU.

Aside from that, all you have is bluster and fill.

In 40 years if this goes terribly wrong, you'll probably not be around.  40 years is a long, long, long time to be poor and destitute...

Quick edit to add, I am not scared, far from it, I am worried, worried for any child's future in this country.  I can go and live in Europe any time I like (Australia too but I digress), so I have no need to be scared, none at all.  

You keep saying whining, which is also quite comical, for when you don't get the brexit you want, it will sound like an airport in here...

Edited November 13, 2017 by HairyOb1

[jonb2]

10 hours ago, macca13 said:

Have you ever lived in a multi cultural area? I have had a knife thrusted at me, been locked in a nightclub because of a gun fight in the car park (Atlantis Croydon)... seen gangs throwing each other over my car bonnet.. 

I’m fedup with being told how enriching it all is by the polical class on TV.. I’m told to celebrate.. 

gun crime, knife crime, fgm, honour killings, acid attacks, forced arranged marriage, gang violence, segregation, religion, overpopulation, increase pollution, increased journey times and collapsing services. I feel so enriched! 

adding more people will make the country worse! I don’t care about the economy, it’s for the rich not the working.. so leave the EU and close the boarders to everyone.. I really could not care less.. 

steven Hawkins said the other day, we have about 600 years to find another planet as overpopulation has destroyed this one! Well done for caring about other people, you are such a better person than me..

I care about the 15 million trees we cut down each year, care about the sea full of plastic or unbreathable air according to the world health organisation, care about 50% of the worlds species being extinct by 2100.. care about something useful that will stop us destroying ourselves and our planet.. not about the stupid pointless invention that is the economy and mass importation of people to drive cheap labour.. that makes things a million times worse! 

We need to encourage less reproduction, and ditch capitalism that requires ever growing populations to buy ever pointless crap they don’t need! 

I think you have made a fair point Macca. The first few paragraphs describe the frustration starkly.

However, 'the economy' is more than just that repeated by the media and politicians. The real economy, in my opinion, is the wealth of everybody - not the few. It's about a fairer society. Crime goes up the poorer people are, especially when they can see others with big houses and fancy cars.

We could go back to early Victorian times, before any social levelling. It was very bleak for almost anybody that was not a landowner. So the economy affects us all.

On the environment, well I think you are right about capitalism fecking it up. We live in an age of hyper-greed. It's this that needs addressing as currently we are flushing ourselves down the drain.

On immigration, I have always said people that feel like you do should be listened to. But if everybody was better off, there would be less resentment I am sure.

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, HairyOb1 said:

I don't know, inflation rising, growth stalling, currency devaluing just to mention 3 off the top of my head, with more to follow.

The bit that really does make me laugh though, is that you're defending this as some kind of macho thing, as though leaping into the dark is a good thing to do.  It isn't, it's economic suicide; even Redwood, arch brexiteer who has a side line of advising investors through his alternative work as a financial advisor to Goldman Sachs, has said to all his investors, you should not be investing in the UK, but the EU.

Aside from that, all you have is bluster and fill.

In 40 years if this goes terribly wrong, you'll probably not be around.  40 years is a long, long, long time to be poor and destitute...

Assumptions everywhere. As I say, if I'm feeling it badly in decades to come and I think it's because we're not part of the EU, then I'll look into it. 

Yeah. I'll listen to Goldman...

Inflation rising across the western world. Blame it all on Brexit.

Growth stalling across the western world. Blame Brexit.

Fiat currency across the world has been devaluing for 100 years. Quick. Blame Brexit.

No ego here. Just openness to genuine change. It's OK to be scared. Most petiole don't handle change very well.

[Futuroid]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

This is all still very early days.

In macroeconomic terms, it's early days.

In political terms, it's very late in the day. No deal with the EU before Xmas and companies  will start getting nervous. 

11 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Spend the next 40 years on here whining if you like.

Thanks, I was going to anyway.

11 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

and acceptable norm, then I'll ha

So you are saying that it will take 40 years for Brexit to start delivering the benefits?

Bear in mind we recovered from WWII in under 20 years, you must be expecting it to be preeeeety bad!

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, Futuroid said:

In macroeconomic terms, it's early days.

In political terms, it's very late in the day. No deal with the EU before Xmas and companies  will start getting nervous. 

Thanks, I was going to anyway.

So you are saying that it will take 40 years for Brexit to start delivering the benefits?

Bear in mind we recovered from WWII in under 20 years, you must be expecting it to be preeeeety bad!

No.

I can't tell how long it'll take. I'm not a seer Remainer. I'm basing it on the fact that it's taken circa 45 years to get to this stage under the EEC/EC/EU.

If it's less, OK. If it's more, OK. 

[Futuroid]

Just now, Noallegiance said:

No.

I can't tell how long it'll take. I'm not a seer Remainer. I'm basing it on the fact that it's taken circa 45 years to get to this stage under the EEC/EC/EU.

If it's less, OK. If it's more, OK. 

So, for an indeterminate time the UK is likely to underperform, and in fact it might never actually get any benefit (vs comparable EU country performance over the same period)?

Should have put that in the Leave.EU prospectus!