Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[jonb2]

This is it in a nutshell

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/11/13/the-political-crisis-we-face-is-of-gargantuan-scale/

[Guest]

34 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

...and all this nonsense we've agreed on reciprocal health care and education is bunkum with a hard brexit, as we'll walk away with no deals, no planes in the sky, etc, etc.

I genuinely think sometimes people on here, the brexiteers wing, have completely and utterly lost their marbles; you're saying the only things that are good are, pretty much, the systematic collapse of government and our social system, that we'll pretty much bankrupt ourselves and lose whatever little influence we ever did have, and watch growth plumes, whilst prices rise.

That's good, as long as we don't continue to have prosperity and stay in the EU.

Two things - Who do I trust more, the EU or Westminster.  EU every day, and all day long.

I like the sound of growth plumes. Will they be as pretty as the unicorns?

[HairyOb1]

18 minutes ago, kzb said:

We went into this some way upstream.

Norway pays almost as much as UK per head because:

(1) GDP per head is higher in Norway

(2) About half their contribution is voluntary.

Their was some debate with Stephen Kinnock the other week about giving notice to leave the EEA.  We have not done this yet.

Majority legal opinion seems to be giving notice to leave EU automatically means giving notice to leave EEA also.   Kinnock junior seems to think not.  But interesting that there's been little attention given to this in the media.

Well no, Article 127 is leaving the EEA, Article 50 the EU.

They still pay an awful lot of money to have no say and, as I said, put all EU laws on the statute book.  This is with no seat at the table too.  You can say it's voluntary as much as you like (which I disagree with), but they still pay it.

Anyway, its all moot as the big climbdown has begun:

Meaningful vote on final deal given as concession.

There's going to be an awful lot of bedwetting going on very soon...

[HairyOb1]

2 minutes ago, highYield said:

I like the sound of growth plummets. Will they be as pretty as the unicorns?

Spell check.

No, nothing is as pretty as Unicorns my daughters tell me.

Edited November 13, 2017 by HairyOb1

[jonb2]

2 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Well no, Article 127 is leaving the EEA, Article 50 the EU.

They still pay an awful lot of money to have no say and, as I said, put all EU laws on the statute book.  This is with no seat at the table too.  You can say it's voluntary as much as you like (which I disagree with), but they still pay it.

Anyway, its all moot as the big climbdown has begun:

Meaningful vote on final deal given as concession.

There's going to be an awful lot of bedwetting going on very soon...

This could work both ways Hairy.

It could be - leave without a deal or accept the one given. Not reject it and stay in.

[HairyOb1]

6 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

This could work both ways Hairy.

It could be - leave without a deal or accept the one given. Not reject it and stay in.

I get that, but I think it's just the start to be honest.  They've climbed down due to 10 conservatives threatening to rebel.  Also, it means the withdrawal bill cannot get on the 'books' until it's ratified, so I think this means we cannot leave if it isn't ratified.

If 10 MP's can rattle may, then there will be so many concessions, it will simply cave in.  The vote will be to leave with a deal, or not to leave, imo.  If you think, this was the first hurdle the government faced and caved in straight away. This will embolden a lot of MPs  Soubry and a couple of others are determined for a second ref at worst, at best I think they'd like to bin it.  This climb down will empower a lot of MPs.

I actually think the Conservatives might take a time out in opposition soon, as this really is tearing the party apart.

I love it. 

[jonb2]

1 minute ago, HairyOb1 said:

I get that, but I think it's just the start to be honest.  They've climbed down due to 10 conservatives threatening to rebel.  Also, it means the withdrawal bill cannot get on the 'books' until it's ratified, so I think this means we cannot leave if it isn't ratified.

If 10 MP's can rattle may, then there will be so many concessions, it will simply cave in.  The vote will be to leave with a deal, or not to leave, imo.  If you think, this was the first hurdle the government faced and caved in straight away. This will embolden a lot of MPs  Soubry and a couple of others are determined for a second ref at worst, at best I think they'd like to bin it.  This climb down will empower a lot of MPs.

I actually think the Conservatives might take a time out in opposition soon, as this really is tearing the party apart.

I love it. 

I hope you are right. There's a lot at stake. That article link up-page by Richard Murphy sums it all up well and the comments are good too.

So the Tories,  in the depths of their ignorance and greed, have sold a pup to the electorate.

Let's hope the Brexiteers realise it's their houses which should be burnt down first when they take to the streets.

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

I hope you are right. There's a lot at stake. That article link up-page by Richard Murphy sums it all up well and the comments are good too.

So the Tories,  in the depths of their ignorance and greed, have sold a pup to the electorate.

Let's hope the Brexiteers realise it's their houses which should be burnt down first when they take to the streets.

Don't get me wrong, I do think they'll start by saying it's this deal, or we leave with no deal, but I think politicians will be savvy enough to see it coming (if we all can) and will head that off.  I also expect the EU to come in and offer an extension to Article 50, due to political turmoil, or some such.  I really do think we're getting to the stage where it simply cannot redelivered.  I do think sooner rather than later, there will be a period where the Conservatives implode over this and we either get a new referendum, or an election, which can be fought over brexit.

Early days but I think this is great, positive news for those who don't wish to commit hari-kari 

I like the houses being burned down analogy, as it really does fit the situation - Who can we blame for this cluster******? Us...

[Riedquat]

6 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Let's hope the Brexiteers realise it's their houses which should be burnt down first when they take to the streets.

You Remainers really are an unpleasant bunch.

[jonb2]

Just now, Riedquat said:

You Remainers really are an unpleasant bunch.

I think I should have phrased it better:

 

So the Tories,  in the depths of their ignorance and greed, have sold a pup to the electorate. Let's hope the Brexiteers realise it's their houses which should be burnt down first when they take to the streets.

Better??

[kzb]

24 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Well no, Article 127 is leaving the EEA, Article 50 the EU.

 

True, but most of the lawyers argue that giving notice under Article 50 trumps Article 127 of the EEA.

It's notable that we have not given A127 notice to the EEA.

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

True, but most of the lawyers argue that giving notice under Article 50 trumps Article 127 of the EEA.

It's notable that we have not given A127 notice to the EEA.

Not most, not from my twitter feed, on the contrary.

True, it is.  Nor notified EFTA too...

[jonb2]

Just gliding through the comment on the article I posted - came across this - despite everything, it made me laugh (and cry at times):

"I would not seriously dispute Richard Murphy’s assessment of the situation. If anything – and hard as it may be to believe given the despairing tone of his article – I suspect he is being overly optimistic in a few areas. He appears, for example, to reckon that Article 50 might be revoked, and at reasonable cost. I’m trying in vain to envisage the political process that would take us to that destination.

He is also able to imagine a “clear statement of what hard Brexit actually means and what planning is needed for it, with a timescale and costing attached”. I can only suppose the conjuring of such a document to involve faux-Latin incantations, choreographed stick waving and, perhaps, a liquor distilled from the tears of a unicorn.

I don’t condemn Richard Murphy. He is reaching for reason. But if reason there be in the current situation I fear it lies well beyond the reach of any mere mortal. The implications of Brexit may be unfathomable. They are surely not readily amenable to scientific certainty. They reach far and deep into a four-dimensional matrix so complex that even short-term variables may proliferate past any realistic possibility of the kind of comprehension that is a prerequisite of control or management.

Which is my way of saying that we’re not only f***ed, we can’t even figure out how f***ed we are.

What is becoming clear is that the ‘deal’ for which the brightest and best that the British political establishment has to offer are striving would most appropriately be called, not ‘soft Brexit’ but ‘status quo ante’. It is plain enough to see, even if politically painful to acknowledge, that what the British government is desperately hoping for is an arrangement no different in its essentials from what existed prior to Brexit but of such a character that it can be spun as something close enough to the Brexit that was promised to be seen as a lucky escape by Leave voters newly pounded into pragmatic awareness by a peek into Pandora’s Box, while the madder of the Mad Brexiteers are bought off with their favourite confection of bitter recriminations against the Johnny Foreigners of the EU who have denied them their dream of a return to selling fruit and vegetables in measures based on the weight of a medieval monarch’s turd.

All of which is a hope as forlorn as Richard Murphy’s wished-for map depicting a safe, certain and fully costed route through the maze of Brexit consequences. The UK is not getting a deal such as described. Leave voters will believe the worst, or what the media tells them – which are essentially the same things. And the Mad Brexiteers will not be placated – because they’re mad.

While accepting his dour and dismal assessment of the situation, where I really part company with Richard Murphy is when it comes to his idea of a solution. Talk of a “national government created, temporarily, in the national interest” horrifies me even more than the thought of Brexit. It is based on the truly odd notion that an incompetent and infantile elite can be made more “grown-up” by adding to the numbers who are part of this incompetent and infantile elite.

The fallacy is that it is a particular section of the British political establishment that is in error and that this can be corrected by drawing on the remainder of the same British political establishment. It fails to recognise that all this does is remove even the notional opposition to established power by making it part of established power. The problem isn’t that the British government is Tory, it’s that it’s British. Richard Murphy’s proposal doesn’t make that government less Tory. It merely makes it more British.

A government of national unity in London is a recipe for entrenching and enabling ‘One Nation’ British Nationalism. If the prognostications for the periphery of the British state are dire under the present administration, they are nothing short of calamitous under a regime empowered in the manner suggested by Richard Murphy. If this is a real prospect, then it only makes it all the more urgent that Scotland escape the British state while escape is still possible."

Edited November 13, 2017 by jonb2

[jonb2]

Another quote -

"No.

The consequences are not hard to predict ...

Look at the Daily Mail.

Look at the Sun.

Look at the Telegraph.

All that will happen is that once again this country will revert to the blame culture that fed the Thatcher era and still endures. The establishment/rich will just find someone else to blame for our decline like they usually do. We’ve had all the following blamed somehow:

1. Unions
2. Regulation
3. Immigrants
4. Government management of the economy (macro economics)
5. The Poor/workless
6. The Disabled
7. The Education system.
8. The Welfare State
9. The EU
10. The Public Sector
11. The Tax system
12. The Scots
13. The Welsh
14. The Irish.

Have I missed any?

The establishment will blame any one but themselves."

[knock out johnny]

9 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Another quote -

"No.

The consequences are not hard to predict ...

Look at the Daily Mail.

Look at the Sun.

Look at the Telegraph.

All that will happen is that once again this country will revert to the blame culture that fed the Thatcher era and still endures. The establishment/rich will just find someone else to blame for our decline like they usually do. We’ve had all the following blamed somehow:

1. Unions
2. Regulation
3. Immigrants
4. Government management of the economy (macro economics)
5. The Poor/workless
6. The Disabled
7. The Education system.
8. The Welfare State
9. The EU
10. The Public Sector
11. The Tax system
12. The Scots
13. The Welsh
14. The Irish.

Have I missed any?

The establishment will blame any one but themselves."

We can blame the above list for various ills to differing degrees, but I'll tell you who you've missed out and they need to be made fully responsible and blamed for the current mess

English nationalists - about time this turd was placed in their lap

No one else

I'll say it again just to make sure

ENGLISH NATIONALISTS

[jonb2]

24 minutes ago, knock out johnny said:

We can blame the above list for various ills to differing degrees, but I'll tell you who you've missed out and they need to be made fully responsible and blamed for the current mess

English nationalists - about time this turd was placed in their lap

No one else

I'll say it again just to make sure

ENGLISH NATIONALISTS

Wasn't my quote Johnny.

It was a list the elites and their media friends find to blame - but just for you:

1. Unions
2. Regulation
3. Immigrants
3.5. ENGLISH NATIONALISTS
4. Government management of the economy (macro economics)
5. The Poor/workless
6. The Disabled
7. The Education system.
8. The Welfare State
9. The EU
10. The Public Sector
11. The Tax system
12. The Scots (particularly CCC)
13. The Welsh
14. The Irish.

Edited November 13, 2017 by jonb2

[kzb]

35 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

 

1. Unions
2. Regulation
3. Immigrants
4. Government management of the economy (macro economics)
5. The Poor/workless
6. The Disabled
7. The Education system.
8. The Welfare State
9. The EU
10. The Public Sector
11. The Tax system
12. The Scots
13. The Welsh
14. The Irish.

Have I missed any?

 

Pensioners and so-called Boomers come up fairly regularly on here.

However you seem to be arguing the only use of the EU is to take the blame.

[jonb2]

1 minute ago, kzb said:

Pensioners and so-called Boomers come up fairly regularly on here.

However you seem to be arguing the only use of the EU is to take the blame.

KZB, it was a quote from the comment section here:

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/11/13/the-political-crisis-we-face-is-of-gargantuan-scale/

Complaining on how everybody in the list gets the blame except the establishment. Apologies for misleading everybody.

 

[kzb]

48 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Not most, not from my twitter feed, on the contrary.

True, it is.  Nor notified EFTA too...

Article 126 of the EEA defines the geographical extent of the treaty -the EU, Norway...etc.

Therefore, if we leave the EU, we also leave the geographical extent of the EEA treaty at the same time.

That is one side of the argument.

The other side is that, under international law, you can only leave a treaty such as this without notice if there has been an unforeseen change of circumstance.   Clearly it is not unforeseen in our case.

[ccc]

1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

His true colours? - buddy, that's how you come across on here!

Really ? How exactly ? 

16 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Wasn't my quote Johnny.

It was a list the elites and their media friends find to blame - but just for you:

1. Unions
2. Regulation
3. Immigrants
3.5. ENGLISH NATIONALISTS
4. Government management of the economy (macro economics)
5. The Poor/workless
6. The Disabled
7. The Education system.
8. The Welfare State
9. The EU
10. The Public Sector
11. The Tax system
12. The Scots (particularly CCC)
13. The Welsh
14. The Irish.

I feel honoured. 

[Confusion of VIs]

5 hours ago, Option5 said:

Not really, she also said that the average German has never seen us as being a real part of Europe, more of an add-on. She said she always thought our hearts weren't really in it and that seems to be the general view. 

If you had lived and worked in Germany you would know that is not true. They see the UK as their natural partners in Europe.  

[pig]

6 hours ago, jonb2 said:

Exactly Pig. It begs the question again for leavers. Which is worse:

1) Our government

2) The EU

Now the argument will come "I voted for Brexit to change things here" ...

Well yes you did, but you still can't admit the EU were the wrong target - 95% of the crap we have comes from those types in the picture above.

So there’s Gove and Johnson back to their venal power-grabbing antics and I’ve just caught up on the John Redwood story - I’m genuinely sick of the sight of them all.

 

[HairyOb1]

10 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

If you had lived and worked in Germany you would know that is not true. They see the UK as their natural partners in Europe.  

They genuinely do.  Which is what makes me laugh about comments like this.

[pig]

5 hours ago, Riedquat said:

That's an extremely short-termist viewpoint. As I keep pointing out both are problems. Don't defend one as an excuse to deal with the other.

What are you talking about - does deregulating in desperation for a trade deal with the USA or similarly cannibalising the NHS sound like superficial short term change ?

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, dryrot said:

Well, we wont have FoM. We wont be paying £350per week to the EU. We wont have to contribute to an EU Army,  We wont be on the hook for a 100% increase in the EU budget... etc.etc.

What do you think all of this amounts to compared to the average forecast drop in UK economic output that will result from a hard Brexit?