Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[GrizzlyDave]

37 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Only occasionally There was no TV reception (pre-satellite) poor radio and a choice of 2 films a night on video. We read a lot of books, and the Scottish newspapers when the helicopter brought them.

 

 

And what about the pay?

[Option5]

1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

And what about the pay?

Can't say, too modest, but in 1982 24 years old with a nice flat and a new Porsche  944 ?

[GrizzlyDave]

9 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Can't say, too modest, but in 1982 24 years old with a nice flat and a new Porsche  944 ?

Wow! Respect. Love the 944 ;-)

Apart from 'the city' is there any other industry out there that is boom town? If there is, I want to know about it!

[kzb]

1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Absolutely, hard to unpick NSO from EU uptick.

Was there an EU uptick?  If you look at GDP it did uptick in 1973 but then dropped again later.

What actually happened was massive inflation in food prices.  26%.  At the time this was blamed on the unions, only later was it admitted it was due to EEC policies.  The unions were just trying to keep up.

I've just thought of this, but probably the union militancy of the 1970's can be traced right back to that inflation surge when we joined the EEC.  The miners' strikes, Fatcha, it can all be traced back to that root cause.  How about that.

[GrizzlyDave]

3 minutes ago, kzb said:

Was there an EU uptick?  If you look at GDP it did uptick in 1973 but then dropped again later.

What actually happened was massive inflation in food prices.  26%.  At the time this was blamed on the unions, only later was it admitted it was due to EEC policies.  The unions were just trying to keep up.

I've just thought of this, but probably the union militancy of the 1970's can be traced right back to that inflation surge when we joined the EEC.  The miners' strikes, Fatcha, it can all be traced back to that root cause.  How about that.

Interesting...

[katchytitle]

26 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Wow! Respect. Love the 944 ;-)

Apart from 'the city' is there any other industry out there that is boom town? If there is, I want to know about it!

I'm sure IVF facilities will continue to boom as sperm counts and fertility continue to collapse....

[kzb]

19 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Interesting...

We now have inflation of 2.6%.  People are appalled that inflation is 2.6% "#Duetobrexit".

When we first joined, they put our inflation up to 26%, ten times the current inflation.  Just imagine what it was like. 

[GrizzlyDave]

4 minutes ago, kzb said:

We now have inflation of 2.6%.  People are appalled that inflation is 2.6% "#Duetobrexit".

When we first joined, they put our inflation up to 26%, ten times the current inflation.  Just imagine what it was like. 

Now we have modest houses costing ten times average wages.

All things considered, I would like a slice of 1973.

[kzb]

12 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Now we have modest houses costing ten times average wages.

All things considered, I would like a slice of 1973.

I suppose you could argue that HPI has not set off a wave of militancy in the same way as inflation did back in the early 70's.

-> Because -we don't have powerful unions anymore.

-> Because -the unions were beaten by Thatcher.

-> What caused Thatcher to be elected and take on the unions? 

-> Union militancy.

-> What caused the union militancy?

-> EEC-caused inflation?

I am on an alternative history tack here.  What would've been different if we never joined the EU.  Am I onto something?

[GrizzlyDave]

27 minutes ago, kzb said:

I suppose you could argue that HPI has not set off a wave of militancy in the same way as inflation did back in the early 70's.

-> Because -we don't have powerful unions anymore.

-> Because -the unions were beaten by Thatcher.

-> What caused Thatcher to be elected and take on the unions? 

-> Union militancy.

-> What caused the union militancy?

-> EEC-caused inflation?

I am on an alternative history tack here.  What would've been different if we never joined the EU.  Am I onto something?

If we hadn't joined the EU? I'm sure we would have a strong trade relationship, akin to Norway.

I think we would have done more with the commonwealth. But also forge stronger ties with other emerging economies.

Edited August 18, 2017 by GrizzlyDave

[kzb]

1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

If we hadn't joined the EU? I'm sure we would have a strong trade relationship, akin to Norway.

I think we would have done more with the commonwealth. But also forge stronger ties with other emerging economies.

This is the sort of stuff I am trying to get at.  I agree with your points, I think it's inconceivable we wouldn't have favourable trade arrangements in place.  This follows simply because of our geographical position.

The point being, it's reasonable to think Brexit should eventually put us back on track as if we never joined.

[stairlift needed]

3 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

snip----------------

No two ways about it 1970s - early 1990s oil was a great place to be. They used to eat Lobster on the platforms. Just look at the Aberdeen bubble. Sadly the glory days are gone, cost going up (decommissioning) and oil price down.

Shame the bounty was squandered by the treasury. Unlike Shetland and Norway's sovereign wealth funds. No that is a legacy!

Aberdeen the Silver city with the golden sand. POTUS SCROTUS ceases enviromental monitoring of his SSSI/golf course overlooking offshore windfarm starting construction this October.

A legacy sure thing!

[ccc]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

This is the sort of stuff I am trying to get at.  I agree with your points, I think it's inconceivable we wouldn't have favourable trade arrangements in place.  This follows simply because of our geographical position.

The point being, it's reasonable to think Brexit should eventually put us back on track as if we never joined.

Except its a totally different time and all we would have done in the past 45+ years would have left us in a very different position than we are today.

Interesting chat in theory though.

[jonb2]

Seems terrorism and the NHS are now the main worries, with more than 75% of the population thinking the country is going in the wrong direction. Leaves 25% thinking things are just right. Not sure what anybody thinks is the right direction as we've not found it for 50 years.

 

 

[ZeroSumGame]

On 15/08/2017 at 7:24 PM, thecrashingisles said:

I suggest Brexiteers watch this:

 

An interesting speech from Adam Posen. Just listened to this, now.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, ZeroSumGame said:

An interesting speech from Adam Posen. Just listened to this, now.

He is spot on as well!

[Unexpected]

3 hours ago, ZeroSumGame said:

An interesting speech from Adam Posen. Just listened to this, now.

Did he predict the 2008 financial crisis?  While looking for evidence of this (which I could not find) I came across this which is also very interesting.

"We can see it coming, even those of us who pretend we can't".

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Unexpected said:

Did he predict the 2008 financial crisis? 

Spot on; full stop*. Some BoE stooge guessing as all of us are - with no history of any previous good guesses?

@ 0:17 "I am her to provide the economics... at least as I see it.... of what this will do to the UK..." - WTF? He's the provider of economics? All hail the great Posen. At least he qualified his guesses with 'at least as I see it'

Some bloke's guesses as to the unknowable future. Wohoo!

Personally, I'd run a mile from anyone who is deluded enough to definitively state the unknowable economic future. Full stop*.

@ 2:50 - 'putting up trade barriers is bad for your economy' - well, yes - from the current banker neoliberal view it's bad for the central bankers and the commercial bankers & megacorps behind them.

But will it be in the in the unknowable future? The UK bought the world the ZX81, Spectrum and (ugh) BBC (but cool) Micro. Recently we've bought the Raspberry Pi and the awesome Pi zero W. Home CNC machines are around the corner - has the banker Posen factored home manufacturing into his guesses as to the world's future? - my guess is not.

It's a bit pointless IMO - although I'll watch the rest of his rambling guesses - to post up a half hour of some banker talking about banking (when they failed to predict the 2008 crisis as Unexpected said above) - it would take a lifetime to critique each sentence of rambling guesses. And then his guesses will probably end up wrong when trade e.g. isn't physical goods, but in IP one uses to print/manufacture at home - as jut one example.

* full stop - this guesser's favourite phrase in the linked youtube video.

 

[jonb2]

6 hours ago, highYield said:

But will it be in the in the unknowable future? The UK bought the world the ZX81, Spectrum and (ugh) BBC (but cool) Micro. Recently we've bought the Raspberry Pi and the awesome Pi zero W. Home CNC machines are around the corner - has the banker Posen factored home manufacturing into his guesses as to the world's future? - my guess is not.

Hardly Apple or Microsoft is it? - as it should have been. Especially when our fecking leaders are selling all the country's assets - ARM Holdings?

And what has the country done since? The last time we could boast anything was the 1970s when we had the best music in the world and it was in the top 3 of our exports.

Nobody is interested as they used to be, they are too busy catching up on crap TV, looking at celebrities mundane lives on their phones and filling their homes with cr*p from China.

Delusions of grandeur are not free.

Oh, forgot we can still export arms to the worst regimes in the world so thay can kill children. So all is not lost.

 

 

Edited August 19, 2017 by jonb2

[Guest]

39 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Hardly Apple or Microsoft is it? - as it should have been. Especially when our fecking leaders are selling all the country's assets - ARM Holdings?

Yes, very true. I'm kind of excited about the pi as I hope it will encourage the next generation to build another ARM, in the same way as the zx81 did in it's day. But that's a long way off.

[cashinmattress]

On 18/08/2017 at 0:19 PM, kzb said:

Your timeline is a bit out there.

The oil bounty belonged primarily to the 1980-1990's.  It only came online in a significant way AFTER we joined the EEC.

In fact the EU at the time were arguing it was a European resource and ought to be shared out amongst the EU.

I would say it's not... ie timeline.

Yes. It boomed in the era you write about but the UKCS O&G timeline is not constrained by that in your arguement.

My point was about the very significant uplift to the UK's energy supply, and the economy which are inextricably  linked. The EEC was consequential of many things but not on solely on our geology and it's practitioners... mainly politicians and big business.

There were lots of factors outwith energy... Britain was a much different place and we had a lot more clout...not just militarily.

Maybe that will change with two state of the art aircraft carriers?

Oh. And Brexit is proving that bucket loads of cash buys a lot hubris.

Edited August 19, 2017 by cashinmattress

[kzb]

On ‎19‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 3:13 PM, cashinmattress said:

I would say it's not... ie timeline.

Yes. It boomed in the era you write about but the UKCS O&G timeline is not constrained by that in your arguement.

My point was about the very significant uplift to the UK's energy supply, and the economy which are inextricably  linked. The EEC was consequential of many things but not on solely on our geology and it's practitioners... mainly politicians and big business.

There were lots of factors outwith energy... Britain was a much different place and we had a lot more clout...not just militarily.

Maybe that will change with two state of the art aircraft carriers?

Oh. And Brexit is proving that bucket loads of cash buys a lot hubris.

I don't get what you're trying to say to be honest.

The one-off NS oil boost, lifted our economy shortly after we joined the EU.  Things would've been worse without the oil.

Subtract oil from our GDP plot, and it would've been flatter.  It possibly covered up for a negative effect of EU membership.

What I am thinking about is what if we'd never joined.  From that point of view, NS oil is a complicating factor.

[Toast]

On 19/08/2017 at 10:01 AM, jonb2 said:

Especially when our fecking leaders are selling all the country's assets - ARM Holdings?

I'm somewhat ambivalent about the sale of ARM holdings: on the one hand, if there is going to be a dominant proprietary ISA, it's good for us Brits that the IP, and even more importantly, the development, should be located here. On the other hand, it would be great if an open ISA, such as RISC-V became well established

The rise of free software has been an enormous force for democratization of computing: I have access to research tools for free, which not many years ago would have cost so much that I could not hope to afford them as a hobbyist. The same advantages accrue to entrepreneurs just as much as mad scientists. Were the same revolution to happen in hardware (and R-Pi is pushing in that direction by making pretty open computing platforms available extremely cheaply), then the opportunties for new businesses and our ability to enrich our own lives will follow as surely as they have for free software.

The trouble with companies is that they are mercurial beasts, able to switch ownership, and never wholeheartedly on the side of any country, since they always seek to minimise tax. The trouble with countires is that they get captured by elites, whose interests are rarely aligned with those of the δεμος (albeit democracy has been a great technology for reining in their worst excesses). I would much rather the power of technology lay more completely in the hands of we the people.

[Riedquat]

On 19/08/2017 at 10:01 AM, jonb2 said:

Hardly Apple or Microsoft is it? - as it should have been. Especially when our fecking leaders are selling all the country's assets - ARM Holdings?

And what has the country done since? The last time we could boast anything was the 1970s when we had the best music in the world and it was in the top 3 of our exports.

Nobody is interested as they used to be, they are too busy catching up on crap TV, looking at celebrities mundane lives on their phones and filling their homes with cr*p from China.

Delusions of grandeur are not free.

Oh, forgot we can still export arms to the worst regimes in the world so thay can kill children. So all is not lost.

The owners of ARM sold it I suppose, rather than the country's leaders. They would've done if it was a state company, but still...

The country hasn't done much in the last few decades because, quite honestly, just about everything had been done by then. Technology has still developed a lot since then, in which the UK has played its part, but no real use has been found for most of it other than for entertainment and to render people increasingly irrelevant, distracted, and mollycoddled. Not much has been used to do anything really desirable that couldn't have been done forty years ago easily enough (but someone had to go out in the rain then and actually use their hands, and probably not even dressed like a scarecrow and tethered to a railing for being two inches off the ground! What a horrible world it must've been!)

[jonb2]

1 hour ago, Toast said:

I'm somewhat ambivalent about the sale of ARM holdings: on the one hand, if there is going to be a dominant proprietary ISA, it's good for us Brits that the IP, and even more importantly, the development, should be located here. On the other hand, it would be great if an open ISA, such as RISC-V became well established

The rise of free software has been an enormous force for democratization of computing: I have access to research tools for free, which not many years ago would have cost so much that I could not hope to afford them as a hobbyist. The same advantages accrue to entrepreneurs just as much as mad scientists. Were the same revolution to happen in hardware (and R-Pi is pushing in that direction by making pretty open computing platforms available extremely cheaply), then the opportunties for new businesses and our ability to enrich our own lives will follow as surely as they have for free software.

The trouble with companies is that they are mercurial beasts, able to switch ownership, and never wholeheartedly on the side of any country, since they always seek to minimise tax. The trouble with countires is that they get captured by elites, whose interests are rarely aligned with those of the δεμος (albeit democracy has been a great technology for reining in their worst excesses). I would much rather the power of technology lay more completely in the hands of we the people.

 

22 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

The owners of ARM sold it I suppose, rather than the country's leaders. They would've done if it was a state company, but still...

The country hasn't done much in the last few decades because, quite honestly, just about everything had been done by then. Technology has still developed a lot since then, in which the UK has played its part, but no real use has been found for most of it other than for entertainment and to render people increasingly irrelevant, distracted, and mollycoddled. Not much has been used to do anything really desirable that couldn't have been done forty years ago easily enough (but someone had to go out in the rain then and actually use their hands, and probably not even dressed like a scarecrow and tethered to a railing for being two inches off the ground! What a horrible world it must've been!)

I think you are both right on this in your own points. They sort of converge in a way.

1) Toast - I hope your vision come true. I remember in the 70s when you could still be your own engineering man without the need of a corporation or even a team. I was an analogue electronics  engineer and could bash out all sorts of projects on my own. A happy little mad scientist. But you can't now. You have the Chinese, Google, Apple, Facebook all eating people  with a wasting distraction disease that has the side-effect of bringing out the worst of all life's traits. Hate builds nothing but sh*t. Well done Zuch. Consumerism makes people spend their way into debt as their lives are purposely coralled this way - well done Google, Apple and Amazon.

And on the UK's future with this shower in charge:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-4779532/Foreign-predators-snap-74bn-worth-British-firms.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2016/10/30/u-s-eu-say-no-to-china-buying-the-world/#476ba23c348c

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/aug/19/silicon-roundabout-gets-brexit-jitters

2) RQ - totally agree with the wastage of human thinking. But I think this suits the elites well, it literally is the Soma of Brave New World. Social Media and online advertising is wrecking us - if it's not causing us to hyper-consume like rats on cocaine - it's making most of us miserable. Like Toast says, there are other things we need to do, but getting anybody to listen is very difficult as their eyes are blinkered towards a 5" screen and their ears have fallen off.