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katchytitle

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About katchytitle

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  1. Its easy to "predict" stuff if we all just draw straight line graphs - population increasing, religion dying, fertility collapsing. We all need a narrative which fits into our personal experience and the market is there to provide it to you. The older we get the more we understand, but the less we can think of new ideas, constantly seeing the world as a recycling of what we understand. I have often thought about the ideas in this book, but I've come to the conclusion that the future is in a practical sense unknowable, especially the further out you try and predict (e.g 30 years etc). Could you have imagined the internet in 1970? Or space travel in 1920? Trump for president in 1990? Life is full of surprises and actually doesn't last that long. The writers and visionaries out there will continually push the boundaries and invent because that's what they are driven to do. In a way, there is no altruism, you're simply doing what you want and the consequences for others are good or bad. Its better to take every day as it comes, protect yourself from knowable unknowns e.g where will I eat, live, provide for my family etc than to constantly look at bigger pictures that actually fit together only due to our biased narrative. A few points to be a bit more upbeat: Always count on human ingenuity, in my experience there is always someone out there much much smarter than you Enjoy your life in the present, enjoying the little things they will improve your world view Housing will rise and fall, sometimes these will happen outside of your life time, there is nothing you can do about it. Its better than being sent to war through conscription because you were born at the wrong time.
  2. I'm sure someone has already said this, but the CEO who resigned was called Peter Crook - you couldn't make it so obvious, even in a novel.
  3. I'm sure IVF facilities will continue to boom as sperm counts and fertility continue to collapse....
  4. Its not criminal if the government does it. That's been true throughout history but notable examples of late: Wars Pension ponzi Housing props privacy erosion
  5. The masses either don't understand private equity or the regulators stop them from learning about it has its too risky. They fail to inform them that its the only way out of debt slavery (if you can afford to invest in the first place that is). PE investments are always measured in double triple digit returns...because on average 1 in 20 investments succeed so its a numbers game and you hope that your 1 in 20 is Amazon or Google or Markit or Walmart etc
  6. katchytitle

    It was only 10 years ago

    So its 10 years into the 18 year deflation expected in the post. The central banks pulled out all the stops to keep the debt cycle doing, If this bubble comes to an end quickly we would have an extinction level event for capitalism, governments will fall and riots and shortages would begin. I wholeheartedly agree that their are magic money tokens, but our established currencies are just one of them too. People covet money because others believe in it and so it is transferable. Once people stop believing in its value, it quickly becomes worthless. cryptocurrencies are an attempt to find other magic money tokens, it doesnt matter which one succeeds but one is all it would take for people to begin. Everyone is trying to find what the next token will be as the writing is on the wall for the USD/EUR/GBP and G10 currencies. Gold and Silver are always an interesting fall back over centuries but who knows in this technological world. Without credit (i.e debt) the system would collapse, the capitalist monetary system is built on debt that is never paid back i.e government debt. Ever wondered why every country is in perpetual debt and never pays anything back, its because that's how the system works. The only countries that didn't have to conform to this are the oil rich gulf states, but they too have had to issue debt recently as their ballooning budgets were built off the back of $100/barrel oil prices which don't exist anymore. Th House prices look like they will rise slower than inflation to provide the unthinking masses a higher nominal number but a lower value. But the key thing to realise is every asset is relative to another, value is truly only built on what you need with the "currency" you have. If you're salary had been in "houses" rather than GBP for the last 20 years you would have a lot more GBP. A roof over your head had been taken for granted post world war 2 but that may change as large scale changes come about. I've been truly amazed how the lower middle class and poor have just bent over and taken it. Even corbyn promising bigger bribes than ever couldnt get a majority vote.
  7. Throughout history anyone who threatens the status quo is always a terrorist. For one it distracts the people - how many people due from terrorism vs car accidents. How much do we spend on preventing both? Which one helps people more? Guy fawkes tried to bring down parliament. Terrorist. The reasons become irrelevant to a media controlled by the elite.
  8. katchytitle

    Young tenants under 35 in crisis as landlords turn them away

    I'm not disagreeing that the young are being screwed, just suggesting that someone must be buying fast fashion, and it sure isn't the over 55's so how can you explain it? Is it just the rich 5% of 20 years olds buying everything? I'm not saying they should save and they would be better off because that's clearly ********, they will not have what their parents had. But if I faced an uncertain future I definitely wouldn't be enabling these companies and thinking about what assets I could feasibly buy - less than 12% of the population invest in shares as an example. A lot of immigrants come to this country with less and do more, accepting lower standards for the promise of a better future later on. BTW you can double your income if you move to Mongolia and manage a coal mine, but few do. Instead eastern Europeans come here to work in Pret and live 4 to a room to save cash to take back home, not really understanding that inflation in their home country in Euros will erode any wage difference in a few years. John Lewis is doing badly, increased profits have to spent on competing with Amazon rather than shared with partners as despite rose tinted glasses they will not be able to compete on price ever again - they are cutting hundreds of jobs and going online. Companies that know they will do well next year release dividends when there are profits. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/09/john-lewis-staff-bonus-6-profits Pubs have struggled for 40 years as people want more that a shoddy place to drink. BTL has bought them all to turn to flats and our tastes have changed. 20 year old in the 70s ate bangers and mash or a burger and drank cheap cider and lager when they went out not gastro pub lunches with wine. A lot of them lived at home with their parents well into their 20s. girls did secretarial jobs and waited to get married living at home. The problem is, the children of the 70s made lots of mistakes and they're still relatively ok. If you're 20 now and didn't have a good education or pissed away any chances you got, you are screwed. Times are certainly different now. I know plenty of wealthy 20- something year olds who bought a flat and have disposable income but I am assuming they are the lucky educated minority who moved to large cities and got the top 1% of jobs. Education for the general masses is very poor and mathematical understanding is low so most 20 year olds will be exploited. Not saying the kids in the 70s were better, just that you're now competing on a global scale so times have changed. Caused by globalisation but ironically the young hate brexit....they literally believe the media rather than looking at their very own life experiences. How many look to understand nominal vs inflation adjusted income growth? If I were them I would stay in my parent's basement and whatsapp and never work as a silent protest. The phone item was just because you mentioned it - doesn't change anyone's world just highlighting the lazy nature of spending the limited income they already have. Insurance is normally on top of the price (much like in car leasing) and its generally always cheaper at a 3rd party rather than the phone company. Buying the latest greatest phone never has a discount, buying the slightly older one has a huge discount, but you don't look cool so people spring for what they can't afford. Style over substance has been what the 90s and 00s were all about - Blair's cool Britannia was very much spend now think later. I remember hearing 16 year olds discussing getting a credit card in 2004 when I walked down the street. He spent on education, he spent on welfare, he lowered poverty and improved your ability to create new and innovative products - wonder why everyone isn't happy? Its because most people just want a job, a house, a family and a quiet life with a bit of cash - they don't want to be educated to be more productive or to learn so they can create. That was always going to be a minority of people, but political correctness has driven us to pretend that somehow we are all equal when every where you look you are reminded that you are not. The people in the 70s knew this the kids of today don't get it. They are economic slaves to a land owning super class but they've been told that the world is their oyster. This major reality shock is going to be a huge problem for mental health and self esteem issues in the next two decades. Did you know the number one cause of death in the US for people aged 20-45 is suicide? - it has been for some time.
  9. katchytitle

    Young tenants under 35 in crisis as landlords turn them away

    Agree that the over 55 earnnigs are unearned don't worry about that. But just to be clear... you think the over 55's are the main spenders on boho.com/ asos.com / sportsdirect.com / primark - even amazon.com- name any random fast fashion house that is less than 10 years old with fastest growing revenues Why are M&S and John Lewis struggling with growth then? Surely the over 55's would not need internet sites and would trust these venerable brands. Suffice to say when you are over 55 you actually spend less on consumable goods because there is only so many suits and dresses you can buy, sofas lamps, desks, art - etc. After a few decades with kids you also know that you can stay home and eat a meal (alhough I grant you that they are able to go out more with disposable income). Its always been the case that people in their 20s spend more of their disposable income as they don't really understand what they should save for and their expenses are lower. You might be a saver but the majority are not. Also - just a btw - three mobile and giff gaff do all you can eat data and voice for about half the cost you're paying. I'd also re-iterate from a previous post that renting a depreciating asset (phone) in a low interest rate environment is just not something anyone over 40 with an idea of mathematics would ever do. Its much cheaper to buy a phone outright (or on ebay at a discount) and a sim card. Or borrow money to buy a phone on ebay and get a separate monthly contract. Its as if people no longer think the laws of maths apply if enough advertising is thrown at them. Same applies to car leasing deals.
  10. katchytitle

    The next big crisis

    My 2 cents on a prediction - fully agree the flash points and fall out are difficult to predict: 1. Stock market falls a little, but then increasing political uncertainty crashes the bond markets. Everyone rushes into corporate stock/bonds for yield and safety and they reach huge highs. The bond market is 10 times larger than the stock market, if even a 10th of its value moves to stocks, shares double. Who has more money/power now Apple,Amazon or 22 smaller EU states who can never pay their debt and can no longer tax their people more? EU 7% of world income but 50% of social care spend - unsustainable. 2. Governments attempt to implement a type of martial law but call it something else like "prevention of terrorist acts". They restrict movement of labour and capital in order to save themselves rather than the people they should represent. 3. Asset prices climb higher nominally but fall against inflation as the relative difference between owning something and having nothing becomes much larger. But inflation starts to increase faster as money becomes worthless. Look at NY as an example small apartments cost $7m. The young have rented them at low yield for decades because living in Manhattan is "cool". The asset is safe and yields something. This doesn't just apply to housing. Its about looking at assets where you retain ownership rights in a complete collapse. 4. Sheeple's inability to understand mathematics mean they think they have more worthless paper for inflation but actually they have less of everything.This staves of revolution for a while yet. 5. Britain takes a battering in the GBP currency market but this turns out to be brilliant as more international financial service businesses and manufacturing business occurs here due to the lowering of the two biggest expenses to business - employee salaries and rent and the continuation of stable rule of law and property rights. Our holidays become more expensive..oh no. The USD has lost 97% of purchasing power in 100 years - they seem to have fared pretty well in that time despite congress.
  11. katchytitle

    Young tenants under 35 in crisis as landlords turn them away

    I like your thinking, I agree that you are right about the old needing the young in old age. But the reality is the majority of our young are the ones that can't live without technology, they are the ones that need more consumerism. Watching figures of "love island" come from the young not the old. They do not as a whole believe in minimalism, they believe in experiences because they can't afford assets. They don't listen to the BBC, great, but then their choices are the eco chamber that is twitter or relentless marketing info mascarading as news on facebook. The idea of teaching the young to reason logically has been thrown out of the window entirely. The majority can no longer think for themselves. I do believe the population as a whole is creating a non-violent protest though lower productivity. They have a job that pays, but with no prospect of affording anything it is the same as slavery. Put another way, what is the difference between a slave for whom I pay nothing but provide food, shelter and security and restrict movements OR a worker whom I pay a salary so low that they can only afford basic food, shelter and basic movement away from their home.
  12. katchytitle

    Young tenants under 35 in crisis as landlords turn them away

    I used to think the same. Especially after 2008, I felt people should be rioting in the streets, but night after night I saw pubs and restaurants full and discussions on TV and fashion taking the lead. After years to ruminate and interaction with the youngsters I think there are a few reasons: They have grown up in a world where war is something that happens to poor people somewhere warm and is televised with the view that "we" are fixing problems elsewhere (rather than stealing natural resources and cheap labour) They were taught to believe in the institutions of society rather than think for themselves. They don't understand the graft that was needed to created them. They stand of the shoulders of giants, people who had to think to create a fairer world through a judicial system; police force; parliamentary practice. Where the few created society, and others, perhaps less educated and less able to plan for future events, accepted an ever increasing standard of living (somehow believing it was all down to them). The plot of the Time machine comes to mind...those in the future know little about how they obtained "utopia" but there is always a price to pay for freedom and without knowledge you can never have power, you are always a slave. The travelator of the housing ladder is a well worn path for a generation and with little ability to create new ideas or think for themselves the majority simply do what they see older adults doing... As more people have moved into tertiary education (50% from 7% in one generation) their education has to be dumbed down in order to allow them to "pass". As the thought experiment goes....take a group of students who get a range of results from A to F, for their next test however hard they work give them all C's. Watch what happens as the A,B graders work less and the F graders just do what they have always done. Spoon fed education has resulted in needy spoon fed adults. They don't think for themselves because they have never had to. There is rarely a government plan for anything, except to stay in power; keep change down to a minimum in the near to medium term. Thus you can have statements which give Hong Kong back to China in 40 years. Or ban combustion engine cars by 2040. Its not the current government's problem, but it keeps them in power to suggest these things. Each successive government will be thwarted by a large civil service from ever making a long standing change that requires more work or better control of resources in the short term so the long term is all they have. So the young have been part of an experiement where, without war or famine to think about; the ruling classes have gone out of their way to obfuscate real life from masses through massive borrowing and poor education standards all the while enriching themselves - who can forget the video of the Malcolm Rifkind MP telegraph sting - "I'm essentially self employed - so 5000GBP/day is what I charge". Infected by the middle class mentality - The middle class ambition of going to university, owning a home, being "safe and upstanding" has gathered pace, more people want that life style and feel they deserve it after going to university. But there is less productivity per capita to produce this so debt has ballooned. The winners have been the people who earn through interest and passive income assets i.e those that actually run society not supposed democracy - the top 1% /0.1%. We trade more and more tokens with each other for services and those that create the tokens from nothing but time (i.e interest) are absolutely fine with this as long as they can have the services we offer at the cost of practically nothing. Expensive survival - basic items for survival in current society at a certain level now costs more. So you need to work just to keep them. These include obviously rent in a reasonable area close enough to work; mobile phone; entertainment; peer based clothing standards. When the older generation grew up playing in a field with your friends was free entertainment that lasted all summer. Now, entertainment is packaged and spoon fed at a cost, so simple basic imagination is seen as dull and boring but those that have it are the creators and innovators in our society. Marketing industry has resoundingly beaten parental/generational advice - The majority of children have succumb to blindly following marketing in all its forms. They do not listen to their parents and feel that they know more due to the stable world they have been brought up in. Their ability to deal with a crisis has been diminished but they have a strange cognitive dissonance sense that they are in control of their world. But their belief in media feeding them real information is absolute because again somehow they believe (through marketing) that media institutions do not lie, that the rule of law prevents anyone from doing anything nefarious at such important institutions.
  13. katchytitle

    Nationwide July 2017 - Prediction Thread

    Unless its true that economic news is irrelevant. The monetary system is simply a form of control nothing else. If I run such a system and I have managed to extend my debts to such an extent that the whole system is liable to collapse then I have the problem not the people who borrow. Historically I caused massive inflation to pay my debts and the serfs suffered through increased prices and decreased wages (although they didn't understand why...they just got older and told people of stories when bread cost 5p and houses cost 5K). The capitalist system has to go through periods of destruction, just like any other organic system, you destroy and rebuild in order for the system to be better. The socialists complain that this is unfair and we should have zero risk in the world and everyone should just do their job and be happy. This is obviously an impossible dream, but people keep falling for it. communism has killed more people that world wars due to famine and thrift but since the reasons are not as straight forward as death through machine gun fire the masses rarely understand so you can abuse their trust time and time again. So, turning back to the system. There is a huge problem, and the people that understand it know that no one is going to give up their seat of power, they will almost always hurt the people through idiotic policies first. So when in doubt just do what the ultra wealthy do. The only downfall to the system will be when the people rise up and say they will take no more, generally though an unrelated flashpoint that gives then licence to act.
  14. katchytitle

    Time to buy Purple Bricks shares?

    I think TIME & EFFORT is what people what to pay away. Its the basis of the economy. Anyone can start a business with time and effort, but they can't be bothered so they are employees. Anyone can build a house with time and effort, but they can't be bothered to learn or manage the process so they buy an existing one. Having kids is the main aim of most people, they then use this as an excuse to say they have achieved everything they can with the time they have available.
  15. katchytitle

    The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    It seems there are several variations of interest in the currency/technology 1. The people who see the end of the world in diluted paper money (i.e Roman currency collapse ) and are moving to anything for a store of value (same as all those buried pots of gold people find from Roman times - its an age old problem when people devalue currencies) 2. People believe applications will run on public blockchain networks and they will be rewarded (by receiving coins) for validating the transaction on the blockchain 3. People who value the underlying tech - blockchain, the creation of private block chains are essentially distributed database network nodes which can validate anything with ultimate security (so far untested!). It is the equivalent of the invention of the database. Useful theoretically, but until Oracle came along and built a business it was on the margins of academia as a nice idea. 4. Hangers on who ride momentum but don't care about anything except that other people care about crypto Like anything new, there is always a cambrian explosion of new uses for a particular technology, then as time progresses, one or two move up to the next level and take all market share.Its either a new way of transferring value e.g cryptocurrency OR its just a new way of confirming trust in transactions. Either way, people believe the coins are worth something so they are - much like paper currency is. Do you believe the USD will grow enough to overcome its deficit drag? warren buffett does, if you do then the debt is irrelevant and USD will continue based on the ingenuity of its people to produce something the world needs. Ultimately the value of anything is dependent on its usage amongst the community. The use cases are clearly still forming. It seems similar to the internet in that regard. In 1989 who thought you'd have Netflix on the ARPANet? Same applies here, new use cases which add value will be created. Whomever gets the widest number of smart developers will win this battle. As consumers, you'll either back VHS or Betamax!
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