Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[jonb2]

5 minutes ago, Byron said:

Yes it was bad, strikes and strife all the time, little left wing hitlers running the country, Harold Wilson's 'Beer and Sandwiches with the Union leaders at Number 10'

Nobody likes it, but Maggie cleaned it all up.

Heath was PM for nearly half the decade. Proving that neither Labour or Conservative have done this country any favours for 60 years. Thatcher did break the unions' power, which was necessary. But then she introduced the neoliberal wet dream which has brought us to where we are today.

We need a new system.

[jonb2]

2 minutes ago, Option5 said:

I know you won't believe it but I had a Lotus Cortina Mk1 (My Grandad was well off)

Flash git!

[Option5]

Just now, jonb2 said:

Flash git!

Still couldn't pull the birds, probably cause I was a spotty short a$$e with greasy hair.

[jonb2]

15 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Still couldn't pull the birds, probably cause I was a spotty short a$$e with greasy hair.

Weren't we all?

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Thoughtful reply, thank you.

Yes, I've heard the argument about the govenment not having the excuse of the EU. I am sceptical as I think they will simply push their greed harvest harder and see it as an excuse to drop a load of regulation. A leopard can't change its spots, but it can add more.

Leopards are big cats - IMO, the Tories are more akin to hyenas. Brexit is indelibly linked to the Tories - It won't be pretty in the short term (if it happens) and it should hopefully be impossible for them to blame both the decision, process & results on anyone other than themselves. We've been lumbered with them for a couple of centuries - a (William) Pitt(ance) compared to a few decades of the EU. I'm hoping that Brexit will make them unelectable for a lifetime - even under their FPTP system.

[Byron]

1 hour ago, highYield said:

Leopards are big cats - IMO, the Tories are more akin to hyenas. Brexit is indelibly linked to the Tories - It won't be pretty in the short term (if it happens) and it should hopefully be impossible for them to blame both the decision, process & results on anyone other than themselves. We've been lumbered with them for a couple of centuries - a (William) Pitt(ance) compared to a few decades of the EU. I'm hoping that Brexit will make them unelectable for a lifetime - even under their FPTP system.

You know as well as I do that the electorate have very short memories.

Your hopes are doomed to disappointment.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Byron said:

You know as well as I do that the electorate have very short memories.

Your hopes are doomed to disappointment.

My hopes may end up dashed, they may not be. We don't know yet.

I don't see how the electorate can forget Cameron calling the referendum, Boris fighting for it (well, pretending to to in a leadership bid), May strong & stably enacting it, etc, etc.

AFAICS, the one way the 'blame' may be transferred is if the remainers manage to shift if from the elected to the electorate. 

[Byron]

Just now, highYield said:

My hopes may end up dashed, they may not be. We don't know yet.

I don't see how the electorate can forget Cameron calling the referendum, Boris fighting for it (well, pretending to to in a leadership bid), May strong & stably enacting it, etc, etc.

AFAICS, the one way the 'blame' may be transferred is if the remainers manage to shift if from the elected to the electorate. 

I really cannot for the life of me understand how anyone with a knowledge of all the Labour messes from Wilson onwards can ever have any faith in them.

The current so called 'Austerity' is the Blair Brown incompetency bankruptcy legacy, yet Labour will not accept this.

Even Corbyn refuses to admit that he was soundly beaten in the 2017 election.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Byron said:

I really cannot for the life of me understand how anyone with a knowledge of all the Labour messes from Wilson onwards can ever have any faith in them.

The current so called 'Austerity' is the Blair Brown incompetency bankruptcy legacy, yet Labour will not accept this.

Even Corbyn refuses to admit that he was soundly beaten in the 2017 election.

Who has any faith in either party in our FPTP duopoly? They're almost as bad as each other. 

[ZeroSumGame]

So Britain wishes to be in the Customs Union and out of it at the same time, re the Irish Border..... Cake, Eat it. And have someone else pay for it.

Quote

Fantasy?

Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s spokesman on Brexit, immediately dismissed the UK’s ideas. “To be in and out of the Customs Union and [have] 'invisible borders' is a fantasy,” he said.

The Czech secretary of state for EU affairs took a similar line.

“It’s not possible to have the same advantages [on EU trade] and fewer obligations in general,” Ales Chmelar told The Guardian, a British newspaper.

Quote

Brexit: Vince Cable says there is a 'significant possibility' it still won't happen

'I think there is more than a possibility that it may never happen'

Aint that the truth...

Quote

"The Government is clearly unprepared. They are hiring hundreds if not thousands of civil servants to cope with this. It may just prove way beyond their capacity to deliver. So a combination of the politics unravelling and the sheer practical difficulties may stop this. It is possible."

 

[Guest]

Quote

"The Government is clearly unprepared. They are hiring hundreds if not thousands of civil servants to cope with this. It may just prove way beyond their capacity to deliver. So a combination of the politics unravelling and the sheer practical difficulties may stop this. It is possible."

Politicians say: All these international trade deals are really complicated - now Brexit has forced us to think about such things, we've found out that they're actually quite tricky - we might even have to negotiate deals and stuff. Sounds like awfully hard work.

Please can we just continue to delegate all this work to that EU thing? We much prefer our japes and name calling in parliament - much more like our school & university debating days.

We'll continue to photocopy replies to our constituents in exchange to any letters.

Thank you x

[ZeroSumGame]

14 minutes ago, highYield said:

Politicians say: All these international trade deals are really complicated - now Brexit has forced us to think about such things, we've found out that they're actually quite tricky - we might even have to negotiate deals and stuff. Sounds like awfully hard work.

Please can we just continue to delegate all this work to that EU thing? We much prefer our japes and name calling in parliament - much more like our school & university debating days.

We'll continue to photocopy replies to our constituents in exchange to any letters.

Thank you x

All your Brexit team have to do is complete the preliminaries and then they can move on to trade deals. I'm sure it's going to be as simple as you say it is.

Quote

Brexit trade talks may be reduced to as little as 10 months

UK ministers admit slow progress on negotiations over withdrawal may hinder move on to crucial second phase of talks  Guardian

No worries, they'll have it polished off in 10 weeks.

[Guest]

Just now, ZeroSumGame said:

All your Brexit team have to do is complete the preliminaries and then they can move on to trade deals. I'm sure it's going to be as simple as you say it is.

No worries, they'll have it polished off in 10 weeks.

It's not my team. It's also not simple - which is why they don't want to do it.

[ZeroSumGame]

6 minutes ago, highYield said:

It's not my team. It's also not simple - which is why they don't want to do it.

Ah,OK.

I thought it worth quoting Cable, because that's what I'm thinking too. I don't think the BREXIT team are stupid, but I do think the harsh reality and magnitude of what they want to do is dawning on them

Maybe Fox wants Brexit at any cost, but as you say above this Brexit thing is nailed to the Tory leadership 100%, and they just can't pass the buck. I guess they're eternally dithering on purpose. May on 4-weeks vacation. Where have they sent Bozo Johnson to?

Maybe Theresa May will decide she's had enough and let someone else pick up the poison chalice. She alone knows why she triggered A50 and then called an election in that order. No one has a clue what her plan was, and I doubt she is ever for telling.

[OnionTerror]

1 hour ago, ZeroSumGame said:

So Britain wishes to be in the Customs Union and out of it at the same time, re the Irish Border..... Cake, Eat it. And have someone else pay for it.

Aint that the truth...

 

https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/cool-customers/

Article 10 of the EEA treaty removes duties and tariffs.  The only thing to get sorted, are rules or origin, argi-food & phytosanitary goods, such could be resolved under UK protocols.  Therefore, is the any real need for a CU?

Quote

It is vital for the government to recognise that even the most ingenious customs arrangement will not deliver frictionless trade. Most barriers to trade are regulatory. They are eliminated not by the EU customs union but by the single market, a common rulebook ensuring that what is produced in one member state will meet the standards of another. Without a system for the UK and the EU to mirror or recognise each other’s regulations, there will be friction.

Edited August 17, 2017 by Dave Beans

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Ah,OK.

I thought it worth quoting Cable, because that's what I'm thinking too. I don't think the BREXIT team are stupid, but I do think the harsh reality and magnitude of what they want to do is dawning on them

Maybe Fox wants Brexit at any cost, but as you say above this Brexit thing is nailed to the Tory leadership 100%, and they just can't pass the buck. I guess they're eternally dithering on purpose. May on 4-weeks vacation. Where have they sent Bozo Johnson to?

Maybe Theresa May will decide she's had enough and let someone else pick up the poison chalice. She alone knows why she triggered A50 and then called an election in that order. No one has a clue what her plan was, and I doubt she is ever for telling.

There's no way out for the Tories AFAICS but one - a second referendum. They thought that the Obama/BoE/Commercial banker propaganda would prevail; Boris thought an honourable loss would launch him into leadership - but it massively backfired. IMO, they deigned to give the electorate the one democratic vote most of us have had in our lives because Cameron's pollsters erroneously led his side to believe they would win. Amazing how a Bullingdon squabble has changed our world - for the time being.

They're trapped now. They can't ignore the referendum - even though our absence of any real constitution legally allows them to do so. To go against the one democratic vote we've ever had risks some kind of a revolution. The only way to negate a referendum is by a second referendum - so that's what they must try for, with every resource they have.

My guess is that their only way to win a second referendum is to double down plus good on the Obama/BoE/Commercial bank propaganda - project fear++. Bring us to the brink of the hardest Brexit possible, then generously give us a second referendum at the last moment - they only have to shift maybe 4% of the electorate to enable them to go back to the good old days of cosy debates of no real consequence in a splendidly refurbished house of 'commons' - with the associated bank directorships for the head boys.

Chlorinated chicken or croissants? You decide.....

[ExiledMatty]

8 hours ago, Option5 said:

Canada, Australia and New Zealand, I remember the commonwealth which we abandoned to join the EEC instead.

3 nations that actually gives a damn about us, unlike a certain group of 27.

[GrizzlyDave]

1 hour ago, ExiledMatty said:

3 nations that actually gives a damn about us, unlike a certain group of 27.

Lest we forget.

[ccc]

10 hours ago, dugsbody said:

You just confirmed what I said, that brexiters won't give an answer by which we can measure if brexit has improved our lives. I wonder if anyone on this thread has or will answer that.

 

10 hours ago, Option5 said:

I'm not a brexiteer or remainer but surely nobody can give the answer you desire, mainly because we haven't left yet. In the interest of fairness can you give an answer as to how being in the EU has actually improved our lives and prove it's correct?

Of course nobody knows the answer to either question because we don't have an alternative universe against which to compare the outcome.

What is confirmed is that the British people didn't vote to join the EU, only to leave it.

I've already said to dugsbody that unless we have a time machine and the choice of two versions of reality - we can never compare or have any real idea. 

They seem unable to get their heads around this. 

Maybe I should just make something up instead. 

[Riedquat]

13 hours ago, dugsbody said:

You just confirmed what I said, that brexiters won't give an answer by which we can measure if brexit has improved our lives. I wonder if anyone on this thread has or will answer that.

The assumption that it is easily measurable is mistaken. Such bland, missing the point materialistic concerns are what gets us into a mess, not out of one. Whether you're happy with something or not is what matters, nothing else.

[jonb2]

37 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

The assumption that it is easily measurable is mistaken. Such bland, missing the point materialistic concerns are what gets us into a mess, not out of one. Whether you're happy with something or not is what matters, nothing else.

RQ - You are complaining about the neoliberal way - a thing which our government are arch-specialists in. Free markets, globalisation, consumersim and the private sector. I am not sure Tibet UK OK is the answer either.

It's about social cohesion, the contentment of the population on a scale. Currently we are all extrememly unhappy - both Leavers and Remainers - equally so. We must locate the real cancer.

The only way this country is going to get better is with new system. Unfortunately,  it will be decades before this happens if at all. The 'leadership' will find all sorts of distractions to blame until one day - it will end up on their door. They have been doing anything to put off this day.

If it was me, the first thing I would do is make the megacorps pay their tax for a presence here and legislate the bejesus on social media, banks and the financial casino business. These alone are the real cancers that cause so much inequality and misery. They have a responsibility to ensure their 'customers' are able to live a normal life.

Edited August 18, 2017 by jonb2

[kzb]

14 hours ago, dugsbody said:

You just confirmed what I said, that brexiters won't give an answer by which we can measure if brexit has improved our lives. I wonder if anyone on this thread has or will answer that.

You've used the past tense for Brexit.  It has not happened yet.

As I and others have said, it won't be possible to scientifically answer this question.  There is no experimental control,  i.e two identical versions of Britain, one in and one out.

There's nothing unusual in in this, every single political decision is the same.  There have been a great many books and dramas based on "what if the Nazis had won the war", it's like that (albeit less extreme).

So you have had responses to your question,  just not the type you wanted.

On the other hand, I have had no response whatsoever to my question: what if we'd never joined the EEC back in 1973 -what would be the differences between the UK that never joined and the UK that did join?

[jonb2]

2 minutes ago, kzb said:

You've used the past tense for Brexit.  It has not happened yet.

As I and others have said, it won't be possible to scientifically answer this question.  There is no experimental control,  i.e two identical versions of Britain, one in and one out.

There's nothing unusual in in this, every single political decision is the same.  There have been a great many books and dramas based on "what if the Nazis had won the war", it's like that (albeit less extreme).

So you have had responses to your question,  just not the type you wanted.

On the other hand, I have had no response whatsoever to my question: what if we'd never joined the EEC back in 1973 -what would be the differences between the UK that never joined and the UK that did join?

Contradiction?

[Riedquat]

1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

RQ - You are complaining about the neoliberal way - a thing which our government are arch-specialists in. Free markets, globalisation, consumersim and the private sector. I am not sure Tibet UK OK is the answer either.

It's about social cohesion, the contentment of the population on a scale. Currently we are all extrememly unhappy - both Leavers and Remainers - equally so. We must locate the real cancer.

The only way this country is going to get better is with new system. Unfortunately,  it will be decades before this happens if at all. The 'leadership' will find all ssorts of disrations to blame until one day - it will end up on their doors. They have been doing anyhting to put off this day.

If it was me, the first thing I would do is make the megacorps pay their tax for a presence here and legislate the bejesus on social media, banks and the financial casino business. These alone are the real cancers that cause so much inequality and misery. They have a responsibility to ensure their 'customers' are able to live a normal life.

There's a lot to be said for that, although in my case the EU certainly is part of it, although equally certainly not the entirety, or even majority.

Leave was the only small chance we've had for years to shake things up to get that new system though, and since part of that system is "not as widespread, more local" (at least for me) the two align. That the next problem to deal with is our own government going off to try to make wider entanglements doesn't change that, it just reinforces the "there are plenty of other issues too" position, but that's no reason not to do something about one of them when the chance arrives, even if not the biggest.

[kzb]

4 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Contradiction?

Well maybe, it can never be scientific.

I am trying an alternative path to answering the question, what effect will Brexit have on the UK?  

I am suggesting hindsight is easier than foresight.  What difference would it have made if we had never joined the EU?  Let's start with that.

Edited August 18, 2017 by kzb