Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[andrewwk]

18 minutes ago, yelims said:

In reality we have better standard of living than uk in HDI rankings, never mind average incomes and general quality of life

neither did people here lose a third of their wealth as pound devalued after brexit

and now that UK left we are THE gateway to Europe, thanks guys 

Don't know about the last bit, investigated a move to Ireland / Netherlands over the past few years and salaries / living standards in Netherlands are streets ahead of Ireland. Long term, the Netherlands is probably the best candidate for the gateway to Europe (not least because they have the highest standard of spoken English amongst the current EU member states).

[dugsbody]

41 minutes ago, andrewwk said:

maybe, but trying to force a referendum was definitely and agenda for some (and I wish they had succeeded). it was high risk though, and we ended up with a much worse deal.

The referendum thing was irrelevant. May's deal was crappy and the current deal isn't much worse, they're all just as crappy. Being in a customs union but not the single market is rubbish. The only rational choice was to abstain or vote against it and see if a "true brexiter" could deliver the sunlit uplands. Turns out they couldn't but that is the fault of brexiters.

[andrewwk]

12 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

The referendum thing was irrelevant. May's deal was crappy and the current deal isn't much worse, they're all just as crappy. Being in a customs union but not the single market is rubbish. The only rational choice was to abstain or vote against it and see if a "true brexiter" could deliver the sunlit uplands. Turns out they couldn't but that is the fault of brexiters.

yean I don't know. obvious that no brexiter can deliver, but personally don't want to see the country trashed in order to prove it. would be a bit of a hollow victory...

[pig]

1 minute ago, andrewwk said:

yean I don't know. obvious that no brexiter can deliver, but personally don't want to see the country trashed in order to prove it. would be a bit of a hollow victory...

There is no GFA friendly solution. There hasn’t been any solution for anything coming from Leave.

BJ was parachuted in stabbing TM in the back and lying about the border because it made the ERG happy and as far as the broader Party was concerned the sheeple were more likely to be duped into voting for BJ.

Blah blah blah Remainer tripe just makes Brexiters appear even more ridiculous.

[dugsbody]

4 minutes ago, andrewwk said:

yean I don't know. obvious that no brexiter can deliver, but personally don't want to see the country trashed in order to prove it. would be a bit of a hollow victory...

Well....

The country isn't going to be trashed, we'll just be worse off (by greater or lesser amount). I don't want that but we were always going to be worse off because of brexit and May's deal would have only made a tiny difference to that fact while leaving us constrained in respects that brexiters did not want, so would have had the much worse additional impact of never even settling the issue. We'd have been stuck in an even worse "brexiters blame remainers for trapping the UK" scenario, for much longer.

My belief is that the UK is haunted by delusions of superiority and needs to escape this. The only way is to go it as alone as possible and figure out its place in the modern world. 

[andrewwk]

1 minute ago, dugsbody said:

Well....

The country isn't going to be trashed, we'll just be worse off (by greater or lesser amount). I don't want that but we were always going to be worse off because of brexit and May's deal would have only made a tiny difference to that fact while leaving us constrained in respects that brexiters did not want, so would have had the much worse additional impact of never even settling the issue. We'd have been stuck in an even worse "brexiters blame remainers for trapping the UK" scenario, for much longer.

My belief is that the UK is haunted by delusions of superiority and needs to escape this. The only way is to go it as alone as possible and figure out its place in the modern world. 

you are right about the delusions of superiority, and i hope you are right about the country not being stuffed.

Edited April 9, 2021 by andrewwk

[yelims]

1 hour ago, andrewwk said:

Don't know about the last bit, investigated a move to Ireland / Netherlands over the past few years and salaries / living standards in Netherlands are streets ahead of Ireland. Long term, the Netherlands is probably the best candidate for the gateway to Europe (not least because they have the highest standard of spoken English amongst the current EU member states).

Netherlands will win out too thanks to Brexit tho in other areas it doesn’t have the same levels of connections to the US corporate world we do, in some respects yes it’s a great place to live in others the field/gardens at back my house be the size of area of some thousands of Dutch be crammed into 

[andrewwk]

4 minutes ago, pig said:

There is no GFA friendly solution. There hasn’t been any solution for anything coming from Leave.

BJ was parachuted in stabbing TM in the back and lying about the border because it made the ERG happy and as far as the broader Party was concerned the sheeple were more likely to be duped into voting for BJ.

Blah blah blah Remainer tripe just makes Brexiters appear even more ridiculous.

solution is EEA

[andrewwk]

Just now, yelims said:

Netherlands will win out too thanks to Brexit tho in other areas it doesn’t have the same levels of connections to the US corporate world we do, in some respects yes it’s a great place to live in others the field/gardens at back my house be the size of area of some thousands of Dutch be crammed into 

yeh sure, the bit you miss is that you are Irish - a poor foreigner (i.e. me) starting out in ireland ain't going to get a massive field attached to their house (in fact, property market there seems even madder than the UK, if that is possible). from that PoV the Netherlands is better (higher salary, lower CoL).

[thecrashingisles]

42 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Well....

The country isn't going to be trashed, we'll just be worse off (by greater or lesser amount). I don't want that but we were always going to be worse off because of brexit...

You're assuming that all other things will be equal, but we already have plenty of evidence that they won't be. The world is changing quickly.

[yelims]

Just now, thecrashingisles said:

You're assuming that all other things will be equal, but we already have plenty of evidence that they won't be. The world is changing quickly.

You are banking on other countries turning fascist too? How that work out with Trump?

[thecrashingisles]

Just now, yelims said:

You are banking on other countries turning fascist too? How that work out with Trump?

The idea that the UK has turned fascist is just based on anti-British propaganda, and the idea that the EU is a haven of liberal progressivism is a delusion.

[erat_forte]

5 hours ago, dryrot said:

...

Thank heavens we are out of this nonsense!

 

I have an old book that talks about the house of lords, bishops, the Queen, the order of precedence at state dinners, whether an admiral is above or below an Earl's son. It's like another world compared to modern England where all of that stuff has been forgotten and consigned to history. John Major did so well with his "classless society". Shocking that the EU still keep that old fashioned stuff going.

[dugsbody]

32 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

You're assuming that all other things will be equal, but we already have plenty of evidence that they won't be. The world is changing quickly.

That's a nice view to take if you never want to admit brexit downsides.

[yelims]

24 minutes ago, erat_forte said:

I have an old book that talks about the house of lords, bishops, the Queen, the order of precedence at state dinners, whether an admiral is above or below an Earl's son. It's like another world compared to modern England where all of that stuff has been forgotten and consigned to history. John Major did so well with his "classless society". Shocking that the EU still keep that old fashioned stuff going.

That’s especially funny on a day that a Greek migrant who married the hereditary head of state has died

[kzb]

6 hours ago, yelims said:

Do tell us how uk border/customs software is coming along...

 

it was vapourware and remains so AFTER brexit with humiliation of having to wave through every incoming shipment 

That was part of my message.  They had years of notice to get something sorted out, but didn't.

[Confusion of VIs]

6 hours ago, kzb said:

There was a border.  VAT and currency.  The GFA mentions "cross border cooperation" every other sentence but hardly mentions the EU or anything to do with it.

The NI issue was weaponised by the EU early on as it was detected as a difficult problem for the UK.  All the expert solutions to minimising the border hassles were dismissed out of hand.  They had years to trial and implement these solutions but did nothing.

There never was an expert solution, all the experts said don't do it. The solutions proposed by the Brexiteers were half baked fantasies that never stood a chance of being accepted by the EU.

Johnson solved the problem by lying about what he had signed up for and successfully fooling enough people for long enough to win an election based on that Brexit is done lie. 

 

   

[thecrashingisles]

8 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There never was an expert solution, all the experts said don't do it. The solutions proposed by the Brexiteers were half baked fantasies that never stood a chance of being accepted by the EU.

This is not quite the same as saying they were unworkable or unreasonable. At the time, the Ireland and the EU had an incentive in being inflexible, but now that Brexit has happened, the politics are slightly different.

[pig]

51 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

This is not quite the same as saying they were unworkable or unreasonable. At the time, the Ireland and the EU had an incentive in being inflexible, but now that Brexit has happened, the politics are slightly different.

Well yes:  it was about a border obsessed constituency trying to put a border exactly where you can't.

[debtlessmanc]

5 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

You're assuming that all other things will be equal, but we already have plenty of evidence that they won't be. The world is changing quickly.

Thats what i see, Germany buying sputnik vaccine and nordstream on line soon, the french bombing furiously in africa whilst it wine industry has been decimated by these frosts. Not to mention the eternal problem of youth unemployment and state debt in southern europe. I suspect lethal heatwaves are going to start in the south soon courtesy of climate change. Indeed people who model this tell me that late cold snaps and heat waves in summer are what they expect.

I am not convinced that the UKs woes are the worst.

https://www.france24.com/en/video/20210409-most-of-france-s-grape-harvest-destroyed

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/08/germany-seeks-russia-talks-over-possible-supply-of-sputnik-v-covid-vaccine

other news the J&J vaccine europe was relying on has worse side effects than the AZ one. Will be interesting to see whether they ban it, it is Dutch rather than British of course.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2021 by debtlessmanc

[Peter Hun]

4 hours ago, yelims said:

That’s especially funny on a day that a Greek migrant who married the German  hereditary head of state has died

 

[Peter Hun]

Turns out the EU has seized the factory producing the Oxford vaccine and criminally broken the contact (which predates AZN involvement)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/08/almost-all-dutch-made-astrazeneca-doses-will-stay-in-eu-says-brussels

So rather than supplying the UK with vaccine the EU is stealing it.

[debtlessmanc]

14 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Turns out the EU has seized the factory producing the Oxford vaccine and criminally broken the contact (which predates AZN involvement)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/08/almost-all-dutch-made-astrazeneca-doses-will-stay-in-eu-says-brussels

So rather than supplying the UK with vaccine the EU is stealing it.

I suspect it is an irrelevance, the problem they are going to have is vaccinating 20-65 year olds as AZ is now banned for them and it looks like Johnson and Johnson will be too. The US has this problem too so all predictions that the US will start exporting soon are also too optimistic.

The article linked is quite sad with M. Breton going out of his way to claim the UK should now be grateful that they will be behind the EU soon?

All this proves the UK was right that possession was obviously going to be 9 tenths of the law. Breton criticises the UK for selecting AZ to produce the vaccine and says it did it to keep some capacity in the UK. Problem is that the UK wisely rejected US firm Merkx to market the oxford vaccine, whereas the EU went with US firm Pfizer and look how that went.

 

Edited April 9, 2021 by debtlessmanc

[thecrashingisles]

14 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

I suspect it is an irrelevance, the problem they are going to have is vaccinating 20-65 year olds as AZ is now banned for them and it looks like Johnson and Johnson will be too. The US has this problem too so all predictions that the US will start exporting soon are also too optimistic.

The article linked is quite sad with M. Breton going out of his way to claim the UK should now be grateful that they will be behind the EU soon?

All this proves the UK was right that possession was obviously going to be 9 tenths of the law. Breton criticises the UK for selecting AZ to produce the vaccine and says it did it to keep some capacity in the UK. Problem is that the UK wisely rejected US firm Merkx to market the oxford vaccine, whereas the EU went with US firm Pfizer and look how that went.

Breton also keeps making promises he can't keep. He doesn't seem to realise that vaccinating 70% of people isn't just a question of supply. I wouldn't be surprised if the EU as a whole struggles to reach that number.

[Confusion of VIs]

4 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

This is not quite the same as saying they were unworkable or unreasonable. At the time, the Ireland and the EU had an incentive in being inflexible, but now that Brexit has happened, the politics are slightly different.

All the UK proposals I heard about were of the have cake and eat it variety. All would have undermined the single market, something that was and still is unacceptable to the EU.

The is no obvious resolution to this issue apart from streamlining the checks as much as possible and learning to live with them. 

Unfortunately the politicians lacked the courage to tell people this and instead have whipped up tensions that they are now finding difficult to control.