kzb Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, rollover said: I think there is no more room to maneuver and no deal is going to be blocked. I have to agree. Half the cabinet is threatening to resign I believe. No Deal is blocked and the withdrawal agreement is blocked. Only options left are Delay or Revoke. To Delay, we need the promise of a 2nd ref and/or a GE. We aren't going anywhere. Shows they can be very clever when it is in their interests to be so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 44 minutes ago, kzb said: Alan Johnson even thought Leave would win, simply because people would be so hacked off with being made to go through the whole thing again. Technically, yes. Operationally, no. If it's a binary choice between Maybot's deal and Remain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 23 minutes ago, zugzwang said: Technically, yes. Operationally, no. If it's a binary choice between Maybot's deal and Remain. That wouldn't be seen as a fair question though. Maybot's Deal is fatally damaged after the vote last week. It has no credibility. Voters would see it was a stitch up. Still, you never know. They could well do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, kzb said: This has got me thinking now. We know there are a lot more NI numbers than people. An "investment" of £3650 allows up to £26k p.a. of benefits to be claimed. Yes I know there has been some handwavium explanation of this, but still I wonder. Does this fly as investment advice anyone? Twenty years ago identify checking for issue of NI numbers was far weaker than it is now. Back then it was relatively easy to obtain multiple ids and harvest the benefit, some people managed to have over 10 ids but I doubt it would be possible today and certainly not for immigrants who must have a biometric id. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, kzb said: That wouldn't be seen as a fair question though. Maybot's Deal is fatally damaged after the vote last week. It has no credibility. Voters would see it was a stitch up. Still, you never know. They could well do it. It would be a stitch up, ofc. But perhaps the only sure way of locking out a No Deal. Both a free vote and/or a GE would be subject to considerable uncertainty, anathema to the Establishment. It also helps explain Maybot's unshakeable defiance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, kzb said: That wouldn't be seen as a fair question though. Maybot's Deal is fatally damaged after the vote last week. It has no credibility. Voters would see it was a stitch up. Still, you never know. They could well do it. It isn't popular in Parliament but then neither is Leaving. The reality is it represents the best deal we could get after two years of negotiation. If the EU want the UK to Remain they would need to give some concession to justify a. having the vote, and b for people to justify changing their mind to themselves. That said we have now passed the point where even if no one changed their mind, demographic changes alone would have tipped to vote towards remain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 No amendment from Wollaston yet, so much for giving the choice back to the people. Labour have put forward a noncommittal amendment with 2nd ref as a possible option to vote on, as a sop to their members I guess. But the Peoples Vote gang know the score and they don't want any 2nd ref vote yet as it would be thrown out. I suppose they're calculating that if we extend A50 their odds might get better... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 And things hotting up for the ROI with Juncker's spokesperson saying there will have to be a hard border...no doubt Mr Coveney will be tweeting a rebuttal to that within 45 minutes...oh yeah. Maybe a kickback to the Poles pointing out quite reasonably that there's no good reason why the backstop shouldn't be time limited, and everyone else saying shush. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cock-eyed octopus Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 (edited) 24 minutes ago, thehowler said: And things hotting up for the ROI with Juncker's spokesperson saying there will have to be a hard border...no doubt Mr Coveney will be tweeting a rebuttal to that within 45 minutes...oh yeah. Maybe a kickback to the Poles pointing out quite reasonably that there's no good reason why the backstop shouldn't be time limited, and everyone else saying shush. And that border will be set up & enforced by ... I know, let's get The Donald in! Can he do it? Yes he can! Edited January 22, 2019 by cock-eyed octopus addendum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said: And that border will be set up & enforced by ... It’ll be enforced by other WTO members. The U.K. could ask for an emergency waiver on essential goods to start with, but they would also have to setup a hard border as well. The EU would ask ROI to set one up first. It would be interesting if they said no. Edited January 22, 2019 by Dave Beans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 (edited) 13 hours ago, MARTINX9 said: Seriously do calm down. Your hyperbole is just ridiculous. Whatever a no deal Brexit results in millions won't die or be killed and our cities won't all be reduced to rubble. Please get some perspective! I never said it would. You're putting words in my mouth. I think you lack both experience and imagination https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/staff-at-london-restaurant-death-threats-anti-brexit-receipts/ And so it continues. Edited January 22, 2019 by jonb2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Errol said: Campaigners claim 'the people' want a second referendum, but that's not what the polls say https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/22/campaigners-claim-people-want-second-referendum-not-polls-say/ Polls can say anything they like. For example. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-live-leave-voters-mi5-conspiracy-government-a7092806.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aheadofthecurve Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, jonb2 said: I never said it would. You're putting words in my mouth. I think you lack both experience and imagination https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/staff-at-london-restaurant-death-threats-anti-brexit-receipts/ And so it continues. I'd argue anyone motivated enough to put an anti brexit message on their receipt is probably motivated enough to go to a lefty rag to tell stories about made up death threats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: It isn't popular in Parliament but then neither is Leaving. The reality is it represents the best deal we could get after two years of negotiation. If the EU want the UK to Remain they would need to give some concession to justify a. having the vote, and b for people to justify changing their mind to themselves. That said we have now passed the point where even if no one changed their mind, demographic changes alone would have tipped to vote towards remain. There's some talk in the Telegraph comments about Maybot surrendering ground over FOM? I just wonder... Smoggy wouldn't kick up much of a fuss since he's neoliberal to the core and Bozzie famously wants an amnesty for illegals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, aheadofthecurve said: I'd argue anyone motivated enough to put an anti brexit message on their receipt is probably motivated enough to go to a lefty rag to tell stories about made up death threats. I'd argue that death threats, and actual deaths come from the right. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-42045720/anna-soubry-speaks-of-death-threats https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-46921529 Please point me to evidence of remainers issuing death threats. The situation is the same in your country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aheadofthecurve Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, jonb2 said: I'd argue that death threats, and actual deaths come from the right. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-42045720/anna-soubry-speaks-of-death-threats https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-46921529 Please point me to evidence of remainers issuing death threats. The situation is the same in your country. Well just to use Tommy Robinson off the top of my head since he was mentioned in the article. He's received death threats as have his family. Jacob Rees Mogg had an adult accost one of his children outside his house. I doubt either of these incidences were right wingers. Anna Soubry just got called a nazi a few times, let's be fair the left is no stranger to calling people nazis. There are extremists on the left and right but I think if somebody puts anti brexit messages on their receipt it's obvious the response they are trying to illicit - most business owners are apolitical because bringing politics in to your business is just bad for business. He clearly did it to either illicit these responses at the best or at the very worst is making up the death threats. That's something there is also a documented history of - lefties reporting they have been victims of some form of right-wing oppression but then have had to admit to police it was made up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
localhero1983 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, jonb2 said: I'd argue that death threats, and actual deaths come from the right. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-42045720/anna-soubry-speaks-of-death-threats https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-46921529 Please point me to evidence of remainers issuing death threats. The situation is the same in your country. I know jonb2 Brexiteers are bad bad people and Remainers are sugar and spice and all things nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: I don't know, as I had left the civil service by then but on the face of it I don't think there is any linkage. Cameron's deal seems overcomplex and I suspect was probably worked up by his team with little or no input from the Home Office/DWP. It might have achieved the same outcome but looks, as it proved to be, too complicated to sell to the public. I doubt more than a few percent of Leave voters were even aware of its existence. 2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: Getting access to EE workers was actively encouraged, Mervyn King's argued against using the transitional controls so that we could gain "first mover advantage". However, nobody actively wanted benefits seekers the just thought the numbers would be too small to worry about. Remember this was just before the introduction of working tax credits, another example of the lack of joined up thinking that plagues governments I do find it interesting how all these little oversights have added up to such a big consequence. 2 hours ago, kzb said: Alan Johnson even thought Leave would win, simply because people would be so hacked off with being made to go through the whole thing again. "Brexit Delayed" headlines might galvanise the Leave vote in another referendum/GE. This might be especially true if the vote was held after March 29th when Leave campaigners could juxtapose May's "we will leave the EU on March 29th" soundbites with whatever the date was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cica Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Dave Beans said: It’ll be enforced by other WTO members. The U.K. could ask for an emergency waiver on essential goods to start with, but they would also have to setup a hard border as well. The EU would ask ROI to set one up first. It would be interesting if they said no. Forget about words and looking more at actions: what are the chances here that Ireland ultimately help the UK get a good deal? As I understand it, UK-Irish relations in the real-world are very strong - probably stronger than most other close countries in Europe. There's no way any serious politician is looking to push a united Ireland any time soon (obviously a lot of people agree it's ultimately the right thing but no way any time soon). It's not like Ireland aren't a little upset with the EU themselves i.e. the Apple tax refund saga etc. Call me stupid, but I think a lot of things can happen with this Brexit saga, but anyone even contemplating any sort of border in Ireland is just impossible. It's like the lowest probability of all the outcomes. Edited January 22, 2019 by cica Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, aheadofthecurve said: Well just to use Tommy Robinson off the top of my head since he was mentioned in the article. He's received death threats as have his family. Jacob Rees Mogg had an adult accost one of his children outside his house. I doubt either of these incidences were right wingers. Anna Soubry just got called a nazi a few times, let's be fair the left is no stranger to calling people nazis. There are extremists on the left and right but I think if somebody puts anti brexit messages on their receipt it's obvious the response they are trying to illicit - most business owners are apolitical because bringing politics in to your business is just bad for business. He clearly did it to either illicit these responses at the best or at the very worst is making up the death threats. That's something there is also a documented history of - lefties reporting they have been victims of some form of right-wing oppression but then have had to admit to police it was made up. Robinson plays with Islam. Hardly surprising. I agree Mogg's children getting shouted at was disgusting. And I detest him. Soubry has had multiple death threats. Even her elderly (senior) mother has had them. Soubry has had to have up to 6 coppers (police) guarding her. As for propaganda on paper, why not just copy somebody else's hard work? FYI, Tim Martin is the largest private independent owner of pubs (bars) here - Wetherspoons. http://www.cityam.com/271878/wetherspoons-boss-tim-martin-defends-column-copying-pub Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 41 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said: And that border will be set up & enforced by ... The UK and Irish governments. Developed nations don't allow lawlessness to exist within their territories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonb2 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, localhero1983 said: I know jonb2 Brexiteers are bad bad people and Remainers are sugar and spice and all things nice I have seen Falling Down. It's excellent. Now. You have taken me out of context. I was replying to an insinuation. That the restaurant that printed anti-Brexit stuff on their receipt has received death threats - was a made up thing. IOW, they were lying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aheadofthecurve Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, jonb2 said: Robinson plays with Islam. Hardly surprising. I agree Mogg's children getting shouted at was disgusting. And I detest him. Soubry has had multiple death threats. Even her elderly (senior) mother has had them. Soubry has had to have up to 6 coppers (police) guarding her. As for propaganda on paper, why not just copy somebody else's hard work? FYI, Tim Martin is the largest private independent owner of pubs (bars) here - Wetherspoons. http://www.cityam.com/271878/wetherspoons-boss-tim-martin-defends-column-copying-pub Hardly surprising? So you think muslims are a murderous bunch incapable of restraint? They are not. The vast, vast majority of muslims (especially western ones) are normal peaceful people. Many probably agree with the Tommy on opposing extremist islam. I didn't actually know wetherspoons did a magazine - had no idea. We have one here and I've never seen it but then again when I've gone there it's been for a beer and not to read a magazine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cock-eyed octopus Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I think we've just found the man to negotiate with the EU: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cock-eyed octopus Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, Dorkins said: The UK and Irish governments. Developed nations don't allow lawlessness to exist within their territories. You think the UK government will? I don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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