Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[canbuywontbuy]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Switzerland and Norway have a strict 90 day time-limit on their current freedom of movement law? And after 90 days, you MUST have a visa of some sort to remain?

I'd be happy if the UK had that, along with an absolute cast-iron law that immigrants had ZERO recourse to public funds of any kind (no TC, HB, CB, and they would be billed if they used a GPs or NHS hospital) - they could become residents in the future, but that would mean they've already proved they are self-sufficient.

[spyguy]

I think this week will see the start of What happens Now.

The major hits to the economy are going to to the financial services.

The plans B - if they existed - will have to be rolled out now.

2 years is not a lot of time to shift systems and people to a new country.

UK FinTech, small I know but the only example of a growing financial sector, is toast.

[kibuc]

they would be billed if they used a GPs or NHS hospital

Doesn't seem nowhere near fair (or legal TBH) unless you make us exempt from NI contributions. That's kind of how insurance works - if you pay it, you get coverage.

[slawek]

Apparently no saving on 350mln/week fee to the EU

Michael Fuchs, a senior figure in Angela Merkel’s CDU party, told the Today programme this morning that if the UK wanted to retain access to the single market once it left the EU, that would be possible, “but not for free”. According to the BBC, he went on:

"You have to see with Norway, with Switzerland, you have to pay a certain fee. And the per capita fee of Norway is exactly the same as what Britain is now paying into the EU. So there won’t be any savings."

[canbuywontbuy]

Doesn't seem nowhere near fair (or legal TBH) unless you make us exempt from NI contributions. That's kind of how insurance works - if you pay it, you get coverage.

Let me tell you an experience from the non-EU immigrant perspective. In my situation (non-EU family members, I've lived in the UK all my 44 years, and have been resident since 1972), we have zero recourse to public funds even though I've paid in probably close to or even over £200,000 in income tax alone over the years. This term is clearly marked on their (my family's) Residence Permit ID cards: "Remarks: No Public Funds". My kids have lived here almost all of their 6 and 8 years. I've never claimed a single penny of child benefit even though "apparently" I'm entitled to, because I know how scarily discretionary the Home Office can be with their decision making on settlement visas. Two years ago the HO gave my family 28 days notice to leave the country, along with a refugee hotline number (so helpful). We appealed and won the case, because their decision was based on a clerical error. I spent £6000 on legal fees to win that case. Next time when their settlement visas are renewed (because they can't apply for residency yet because of an HO rule that states if you're refused a visa initially by the HO, you can't take the residency route for 10 years), IF the HO refuses them a settlement visa extension, then according to the Immigration Act 2014, we must appeal their decision outside of the UK. An appeal can take many months to process. So the family breaks up for that period of time, or perhaps even I lose my job and stay with them out of the UK before we get to tribunal.

This is what happens when the government can only come heavily down on one side of the immigration equation (non-EUs only are under these rules).

I don't think your point holds much value on NHS and GPs - you should contribute X amount if you are an immigrant before having access to those services, not from day one. I don't think it's too much to ask. I don't even mind that in my case we have no recourse to public funds, but I DO mind when the HO are under pressure to find something "wrong" with my family to keep their quotas as low as possible. The HO do have targets for non-EUs, and they are aggressive in meeting them. I just ask for balance.

edit to add: other requirements include: I must have £63,000 in savings, or earn at least £18,600 minimum per annum as a requirement for my family's renewal of their settlement visas. Of course, I can't have any criminal record, and my partner's English has to be B1 (CEFR) level English or higher, and pass the Knowledge of Life in the UK test. Not saying all of this is unfair in and of itself (basically the tests are saying "hey, are you self-sufficient, can your family integrate?"), but it IS unfair when EU migrants don't need to take any of these tests, can even have a criminal record, AND have full access to public funds. How is that fair?

Edited June 27, 2016 by canbuywontbuy

[frederico]

OK, no more BMs then bye

[R K]

Apparently no saving on 350mln/week fee to the EU

Michael Fuchs, a senior figure in Angela Merkel’s CDU party, told the Today programme this morning that if the UK wanted to retain access to the single market once it left the EU, that would be possible, “but not for free”. According to the BBC, he went on:

"You have to see with Norway, with Switzerland, you have to pay a certain fee. And the per capita fee of Norway is exactly the same as what Britain is now paying into the EU. So there won’t be any savings."

Its all nothing more than posturing at this point.

I very much doubt VW, BMW & Mercedes bosses want to lose UK market to Tesla when push comes to shove whatever Schauble may say in in the interim. Increasingly EU countries are calling his bluff.

[canbuywontbuy]

I very much doubt VW, BMW & Mercedes bosses want to lose UK market to Tesla when push comes to shove whatever Schauble may say in in the interim. Increasingly EU countries are calling his bluff.

Exactly. When push comes to shove, German business will tell them how it works. They need the UK market.

[rollover]

'Wait and see' in housing market 09:49

The Council of Mortgage Lenders, which represents lenders in the UK, says it expects a “wait and see” approach from potential buyers and sellers of property following the referendum vote – but no house price falls.

There is likely to be considerable uncertainty as a result of the EU referendum decision. We expect this to affect sentiment and reduce activity below levels that would otherwise be expected in the near term, as both buyers and sellers adopt a wait-and-see attitude until the dust begins to settle. Market fundamentals underpinning house prices still look sound, and we do not expect significant house price falls, especially given the current supply demand imbalance."

[kibuc]

I don't think your point holds much value on NHS and GPs - you should contribute X amount if you are an immigrant before having access to those services, not from day one. I don't think it's too much to ask. I don't even mind that in my case we have no recourse to public funds, but I DO mind when the HO are under pressure to find something "wrong" with my family to keep their quotas as low as possible. The HO do have targets for non-EUs, and they are aggressive in meeting them. I just ask for balance.

I don't think I can agree on that point. It's like saying that you're only eligible for buying a can of beans at Tesco, I've you've been paying for those cans for some time without actually getting them. As much as I understand and support removal of benefits ant tax credits, I believe getting the very item you're paying for is one of the most basic rights and a foundation of any economy.

[Will!]

Since comparisons are being made with Switzerland, some of you may not be aware that the EU is currently engaged in a game of brinkmanship with Switzerland over immigration.

In 2014 the Swiss voted by a narrow majority to introduce immigration quotas. The government has three years to introduce such quotas, but the EU has taken the stance that their introduction would breach the principle of free movement of people and potentially render all of Switzerland's bilateral agreements with the EU void (including access to the single market).

It's been somewhat surprising this weekend that there hasn't been too much discussion in the media about the relative strength of negotiating positions in the aftermath of Brexit. The assumption seems to be that the UK has a weak hand, but given a choice I would much rather be heading the UK's negotiating team, and one of my first actions would be to contact my Swiss counterparts to establish some common ground and investigate how pressure could be brought to bear on the EU for a relaxation of the free movement principle for specific trading partners.

The EU would be in an incredibly difficult situation if the UK and Switzerland cooperated on this issue, and I find it hard to believe that Merkel would sit idly by and watch the EU Commission take a hardball stance that would potentially wreck the German export market.

Game theorists are going to have a field day over the coming months (and years), and until the general public becomes more appreciative of the UK's negotiating position I think it's too early to speculate on whether there will be a second referendum.

Quotas seem like a very blunt tool to me and I think they're unnecessary in the UK. No-one sensible wants to limit the number of high quality immigrants who are net contributors to our GDP per capita. If numbers are important for political reasons then point out that if the UK restricts itself to higher quality immigration then it will likely reduce the quantity as a consequence.

Very good points about negotiating with the EU.

[Sheeple Splinter]

Since comparisons are being made with Switzerland, some of you may not be aware that the EU is currently engaged in a game of brinkmanship with Switzerland over immigration.

In 2014 the Swiss voted by a narrow majority to introduce immigration quotas. The government has three years to introduce such quotas, but the EU has taken the stance that their introduction would breach the principle of free movement of people and potentially render all of Switzerland's bilateral agreements with the EU void (including access to the single market).

It's been somewhat surprising this weekend that there hasn't been too much discussion in the media about the relative strength of negotiating positions in the aftermath of Brexit. The assumption seems to be that the UK has a weak hand, but given a choice I would much rather be heading the UK's negotiating team, and one of my first actions would be to contact my Swiss counterparts to establish some common ground and investigate how pressure could be brought to bear on the EU for a relaxation of the free movement principle for specific trading partners.

The EU would be in an incredibly difficult situation if the UK and Switzerland cooperated on this issue, and I find it hard to believe that Merkel would sit idly by and watch the EU Commission take a hardball stance that would potentially wreck the German export market.

Game theorists are going to have a field day over the coming months (and years), and until the general public becomes more appreciative of the UK's negotiating position I think it's too early to speculate on whether there will be a second referendum.

Yes, this has been raised on another thread a while ago. UK should be seen to be opening negotiations with all non-euro curency, EU countries, as well as the RoW before first meeting with EU.

[canbuywontbuy]

I don't think I can agree on that point. It's like saying that you're only eligible for buying a can of beans at Tesco, I've you've been paying for those cans for some time without actually getting them. As much as I understand and support removal of benefits ant tax credits, I believe getting the very item you're paying for is one of the most basic rights and a foundation of any economy.

Then you agree the current system is unfair, because I have been paying for my can of beans since 1988 (since 16 years old, and I've worked all my life in the UK) but my family has no recourse to public funds at all. What I am suggesting is like one single bean compared to a can of beans I am not getting. Saying you're entitled to NHS after paying your first penny of NI is not commensurate to your contribution. There is such a thing in the UK as "showing willing" - and I think immigrants should be rewarded commensurately with what they have contributed. The more you contribute, the more you are enfranchised to the country. I am at the total opposite end of that - I've contributed massive amounts, and get zero in return, and live in constant worry the HO will come down heavily on my family, even via a clerical error on their part. By the way, I am not alone in my predicament: http://britcits.blogspot.co.uk/

Edited June 27, 2016 by canbuywontbuy

[workhou]

I voted leave. I don't get how the leave campaign has been so quiet since the result. Someone needs to err 'take control'. What are they waiting for? Very disconcerting.

Gilts are now below 1% what does this mean? Gilts/ buying government bond are usually harbingers of a recession, right?

Edited June 27, 2016 by workhou

[EssKay]

Quality of life should be the new mantra for UK citizens and immigrants. I thought we would hear more from the blues today about the direction of forward travel.

Quality of life improvements require a growing economy.

Who *really* trusts Bojo and co to be able to negotiate a favourable trade deal that will allow us to keep growing the economy? I would expect at least a short term (3-5 year) hit to GDP against a background of a return of QE (Carney has committed 250bn just for starters). Is that a recipe for quality of life improvements?

About the only silver lining I can see is that we *might* be able to escape the worst of the fallout when the Eurozone is embroiled in its next inevitable crisis and we *should* be able to avoid taking part in bailouts

[Will!]

Quality of life improvements require a growing economy.

They require a growing economy per capita.

[Riedquat]

Quality of life improvements require a growing economy.

Why? The idea that you can buy quality of life increases is flawed (unless you're in genuine poverty). I'd define quality of life improvements as anything that makes you happier, which buying more stuff only does superficially and briefly (people desperate to buy more stuff never seem satisfied no matter how much they buy). Time, family, friends, environment are far, far more important when you get past the struggle for survival stage and are things that a growing economy threatens more than it helps.

Edited June 27, 2016 by Riedquat

[EssKay]

* ITS OUR FKCING BENEFIT SYSTEM THATS FCKED NOT THE EU*

Exactly.

As the EU quite rightly pointed out when Cameron went cap in hand for concessions around migrant benefits, the solution has always been in our own hands. With a bit of political will, we could have at any point reformed our bonkers welfare system by removing the absolutely perverse tax credits system.

The Swiss seem to have a much more sensible approach to all of this. Their basic mantra is that they will help you if you fall on hard times but will do everything they can to avoid you becoming dependent on handouts

[Sheeple Splinter]

We could create an Outside European Union Union

Yes, can I suggest NEU, new in German but as an acronym, New European Union. Founding principle, economic union welcomes all sovereign, european countries with their own currency - transitional arrangements for countries with a basket currency.

[Sheeple Splinter]

Then you agree the current system is unfair, because I have been paying for my can of beans since 1988 (since 16 years old, and I've worked all my life in the UK) but my family has no recourse to public funds at all. What I am suggesting is like one single bean compared to a can of beans I am not getting. Saying you're entitled to NHS after paying your first penny of NI is not commensurate to your contribution. There is such a thing in the UK as "showing willing" - and I think immigrants should be rewarded commensurately with what they have contributed. The more you contribute, the more you are enfranchised to the country. I am at the total opposite end of that - I've contributed massive amounts, and get zero in return, and live in constant worry the HO will come down heavily on my family, even via a clerical error on their part. By the way, I am not alone in my predicament: http://britcits.blogspot.co.uk/

Forgive my ignorance, but are you saying you are not entitled to NHS care, tax credits and pension?

[Riedquat]

Yes, can I suggest NEU, new in German but as an acronym, New European Union. Founding principle, economic union welcomes all sovereign, european countries with their own currency - transitional arrangements for countries with a basket currency.

I wouldn't go as far as economic union but trying to get a reasonable degree of economic commonality without being too intrusive (and with it tied in to reality) would be great. I do hope that we try to build some sort of new union though, what many think the EU should be. How to not make it turn into the same monster with time though...

[EssKay]

Why? The idea that you can buy quality of life increases is flawed (unless you're in genuine poverty). I'd define quality of life improvements as anything that makes you happier, which buying more stuff only does superficially and briefly (people desperate to buy more stuff never seem satisfied no matter how much they buy). Time, family, friends, environment are far, far more important when you get past the struggle for survival stage and are things that a growing economy threatens more than it helps.

You do know that the BREXIT vote was essentially a working class revolt against globalisation and immigration right?

The fact is there are an awful lot of people in the country who feel that their quality of life leaves a lot to be desired and will improve as a result of BREXIT.

How do you suppose they envisage that happening?

I guarantee you that most of them are not thinking "great- I'll have more time to spend with friends and family"

They are actually thinking there will be less pressure on housing/schools/NHS due to falling immigrant numbers and more money pumped into those areas (a whole 350mn / day ) They also think employers will offer them better paid jobs once those pesky immigrants are gone.

Leaving aside the assumption that immigration will fall (I'm not convinced it will), the rest all requires a growing economy. The government will NOT pump more money into services without this and employers will NOT offer better paid jobs without it (infact they are more likely to cut jobs/squeeze wages in a deteriorating economy)

Edited June 27, 2016 by EssKay

[Sheeple Splinter]

I wouldn't go as far as economic union but trying to get a reasonable degree of economic commonality without being too intrusive (and with it tied in to reality) would be great. I do hope that we try to build some sort of new union though, what many think the EU should be. How to not make it turn into the same monster with time though...

Yes, tongue in cheek, but with an eye to potential outcomes discussed on these threads. In the event other dissenting EU countries reach a critical mass, then a reformed EU, (NEU ) is a distinct possibilty.

[Sheeple Splinter]

Quality of life improvements require a growing economy.

Who *really* trusts Bojo and co to be able to negotiate a favourable trade deal that will allow us to keep growing the economy? I would expect at least a short term (3-5 year) hit to GDP against a background of a return of QE (Carney has committed 250bn just for starters). Is that a recipe for quality of life improvements?

About the only silver lining I can see is that we *might* be able to escape the worst of the fallout when the Eurozone is embroiled in its next inevitable crisis and we *should* be able to avoid taking part in bailouts

I'm just stating one, measurable mantra as part of the vision for the UK, I think Farage said it first, but my point is that the UK citizens need a broad, positive message about the future. Currently the 'Westminster Games' is taking priority over the citizens' concerns about the future - these threads are testament to the confusion out there.

Reducing pressures on the NHS, housing and schools by reducing the number of immigrants would positively affect quality of life without costs - in fact it would be a net saving.

Agreed, that there would be a cost to building more housing, for citizens and immigrants, but, to be fair, labour does have a plan for that.

[spyguy]

I voted leave. I don't get how the leave campaign has been so quiet since the result. Someone needs to err 'take control'. What are they waiting for? Very disconcerting.

Gilts are now below 1% what does this mean? Gilts/ buying government bond are usually harbingers of a recession, right?

Sh1t your pants total fear.