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House Price Crash Forum


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About frederico

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  1. That chart is dramatic, but an extremely simplistic view of the world and actually illustrates the flaws with worrying about debt and why it is so easy to borrow. In reality the debt is offset by many real life things. Intellectual property, market dominance and military capability being the main ones. Natural resources are significant but inadequacy can be offset by military might. A country which has the industrial and digital dominance that the US has is always going to be seen as a safe haven. China could be the big loser out of all this, they need to get their act together and are mostly used as cheap labour at the moment, if that can be fully replaced by automation then why bother. We may have two revolutions going on and given more impetus by covid. Reduce reliance on oil so they can forget about the middle east, and bring in more ai so more can be made at a competitive price in the US, chuck in tariffs and off you go. In many ways China, Japan and maybe Germany are looking a bit old school. The UK on the hand lord knows.
  2. The problem is too much supply, printing trlns to lend doesn't help if people are saturated in debt. This has been the case since the financial crisis maybe before. Inflation is driven by demand versus supply. So I suggest very low inflation maybe deflation, businesses will largely keep going mostly in the minimum wage area. A large number of people will suffer and have no future but still believe they know everything. Life will continue for many, pretty much as it is now. Incredibly and I definitely don't want it, but a massive war is the only way to change the system.
  3. Yeah that's good, I've got two of those thanks, I hope you get a decent cut.
  4. Hi, clapping is waste of time and energy, it is being used as a psychological tool to make people think they can help and in some way contribute. It distracts from the details and any reality. The reality is that people's lives have been turned on their heads, by government and scientific negligence. Not only that, but the secretive superpower that let the thing out treats us all with contempt for daring to question what is going on. We should be refusing to trade with China until they get their humans rights, welfare and democracy in order. This of course will never happen because the billionaires make money out of slave labour and lending us money to buy the products. There are very good well meaning people around and they are the heart of our society, people working in the NHS do amazing very arduous work. Clapping isn't going to feed their families.
  5. Hmm well as far as I can see no one can afford a pension and a mortgage and a BMW and a holiday in Florida. Oh and a new kitchen in the new extension. But if they try their pension savings are going to suck billions out of the economy and give very little back. Obviously this will cause general fiscal problems at some point. However as it will be a steady stream of individuals who suffer and the vast majority of the population will be living the dream, everything will be fine. Just get a btl innit. Or if you have a house it'll be worth a fortune won't it, but the kids wanted that money, though.
  6. What makes you think 10% have their heads screwed on? I think you're underestimating the depth of the debt culture. Don't get me started on pensions.
  7. The culture aspect is the saddest part, all this clapping for the NHS malarkey, how the hell did that start? It's all for appearances sake no depth of feeling. As with many things, real people suffer but as it's a small number most don't get it. The gap between complete and utter rubbish and reality has somehow become blurred, be it by social media, MSM or advertising. People are controlled by images and have very little idea of reality. I believe the fertility rate in the west is plummeting that should not be a surprise and represents the breakdown of western culture. That's the real reason for open boarders, cheap labour and canon fodder.
  8. I don't see why if nobody needs to sell, prices are determined by the margins. There will be forbearance and benefits to fall back on.
  9. Yeah, anything going on now is irrelevant, the only thing that will seriously change the market is many forced sellers.
  10. Indeed, can't see it being allowed to happen. Imo global air travel caused the virus to spread, so for a while they will be very tight on any areas that have outbreaks, but pretty soon it will be back as they want it. Which means the country addicted to debt. They do not want an hpc, they wouldn't mind a bit of inflation but they won't get it their collective reasoning is flawed. Won't stop them trying for ever though. There is a magic money tree. Sadly, for anyone who wants a decent life in the UK, that time has gone forever, mainly because the majority are happy to be given easy loans and shiny things. The new normal is young adults living at home or renting a room in a shared house until their parents keal over or go in a home, if it's the latter then at least if they are living in the family home they may get to keep it. Otherwise nothing
  11. Ok current account deficit is directly related to your ability to borrow, yet borrowing pays for it. I can only think that this loss is counterbalanced by the country's seeming likelihood to remain stable and a safe haven.
  12. This is true, but is it sustainable? I must admit I thought we would run out of the ability to borrow a long time ago.
  13. Yes but what if the other costs are reduced or other benefits increased such that to an extent wages don't matter. For instance tax, transportation, communication, energy, skills. It's all part of a pie. Government needs to focus on enabling. If the business case works it will happen.
  14. I must admit I've been expecting a correction for so long and it has not happened so I cannot believe it will ever be allowed to happen.
  15. All very true, but they will never rebel, if they did it would get shut down very quickly
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