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House Price Crash Forum

frederico

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About frederico

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  1. Well he has a point, everywhere you look is a massive risk or negative real return. I'm a lucky old boomer, but my grown up kids aren't, buy a house now? Dare I say btl, no chance. Stock market ditto, I told the kids I would help them buy a house but they have other focuses. They don't want the hassle. Don't get me started on the costs of none productive hangers on. So I've decided to spend a load on home improvements and I've paid of my mortgage, just to make you really upset I have a couple of db pensions and a small dc pot. That doesn't mean I don't think the whole thing is a mess, there's just nothing I can do about it.
  2. The bubble will burst when redundancies rise and houses get repossessed, but that won't happen.
  3. In the case of house prices past performance does seem to be an indication of future performance. Lives are going to be over before any change occurs. Many have already been wasted.
  4. Yeah well with financial props and government intervention they will still go up. It's been a long time (20 years) since any sort of free market existed. Of course if the government or banks lose control then it could be a very very hard landing. They do seem stuck between a rock and a hard place, but they usually come up with something.
  5. Yeah I bought in 87 and sold a few years later, strange times, don't think it'll be allowed again.
  6. Yes I've been using the same reasoning for years now, but the UK has just kept going defying gravity.
  7. Unfortunately, in the real world the boe have decided that high house prices make people feel rich so they spend, which is true. As we have a consumer driven economy this is a must. So I expect heaven and earth to be moved to keep prices rising. This of course is a folie, leading to yet more personal debt. However they don't know anything else. Inflation is a problem though as interest rates are going up. So it will have to be a really clever scam like government mortgages that you pay back over 30 years or more.
  8. I think just holding it steady would kill the market, I think the housing market has been inflated directly by qe, qe allows banks to lend to infinity, htb and stamp duty holiday meant people didn't have to save the deposit, the very thing that was introduced after the financial crisis to curb sub prime loans. All of this was intentional as they think increasing house prices make people feel rich and more disposed to spending. Which is true but they are not really rich.
  9. Be careful not to over complicate things, inflation appears at the moment to be a supply side thing. The reasons for that are debatable. Possibly qe has caused hpi through fractional reserve banking and low rates, so now rates are creeping up and they don't want to do anymore qe. So what are house prices going to do? They thought making you think you're rich with hpi would make you spend and keep the economy going, which it sort of did but not in a sustainable way.
  10. I think because the government is impacted by it they have to be bothered about it. Over the past 10 years I have expected inflation but it never really came, probably due to the various suppressors of demand including most recently covid. I put as much as I could into index linked as it wasn't clear to me which way things would go. The economy is global now though which thoroughly complicates things as we import most things except financial services. Inflation now could be insensitive to domestic policy making it very difficult to control. So the real answer is high wages low cost domestic production for export, not much of that happening.
  11. I don't think the usual rules will apply, because financial rules and measures have drastically separated from common sense. Money is too easy to create, hence borrowing is too easy to do. Which is what they intended. Lol the only way to control borrowing is rates. Long term rates will not drop because money creation is too easy.
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