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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by frederico

  1. Well he has a point, everywhere you look is a massive risk or negative real return. I'm a lucky old boomer, but my grown up kids aren't, buy a house now? Dare I say btl, no chance. Stock market ditto, I told the kids I would help them buy a house but they have other focuses. They don't want the hassle. Don't get me started on the costs of none productive hangers on. So I've decided to spend a load on home improvements and I've paid of my mortgage, just to make you really upset I have a couple of db pensions and a small dc pot. That doesn't mean I don't think the whole thing is a mess, there's just nothing I can do about it.
  2. The bubble will burst when redundancies rise and houses get repossessed, but that won't happen.
  3. In the case of house prices past performance does seem to be an indication of future performance. Lives are going to be over before any change occurs. Many have already been wasted.
  4. Yeah well with financial props and government intervention they will still go up. It's been a long time (20 years) since any sort of free market existed. Of course if the government or banks lose control then it could be a very very hard landing. They do seem stuck between a rock and a hard place, but they usually come up with something.
  5. Yeah I bought in 87 and sold a few years later, strange times, don't think it'll be allowed again.
  6. Yes I've been using the same reasoning for years now, but the UK has just kept going defying gravity.
  7. Unfortunately, in the real world the boe have decided that high house prices make people feel rich so they spend, which is true. As we have a consumer driven economy this is a must. So I expect heaven and earth to be moved to keep prices rising. This of course is a folie, leading to yet more personal debt. However they don't know anything else. Inflation is a problem though as interest rates are going up. So it will have to be a really clever scam like government mortgages that you pay back over 30 years or more.
  8. I think just holding it steady would kill the market, I think the housing market has been inflated directly by qe, qe allows banks to lend to infinity, htb and stamp duty holiday meant people didn't have to save the deposit, the very thing that was introduced after the financial crisis to curb sub prime loans. All of this was intentional as they think increasing house prices make people feel rich and more disposed to spending. Which is true but they are not really rich.
  9. Be careful not to over complicate things, inflation appears at the moment to be a supply side thing. The reasons for that are debatable. Possibly qe has caused hpi through fractional reserve banking and low rates, so now rates are creeping up and they don't want to do anymore qe. So what are house prices going to do? They thought making you think you're rich with hpi would make you spend and keep the economy going, which it sort of did but not in a sustainable way.
  10. I think because the government is impacted by it they have to be bothered about it. Over the past 10 years I have expected inflation but it never really came, probably due to the various suppressors of demand including most recently covid. I put as much as I could into index linked as it wasn't clear to me which way things would go. The economy is global now though which thoroughly complicates things as we import most things except financial services. Inflation now could be insensitive to domestic policy making it very difficult to control. So the real answer is high wages low cost domestic production for export, not much of that happening.
  11. I don't think the usual rules will apply, because financial rules and measures have drastically separated from common sense. Money is too easy to create, hence borrowing is too easy to do. Which is what they intended. Lol the only way to control borrowing is rates. Long term rates will not drop because money creation is too easy.
  12. It just shows the divide we have to deal with, how would anyone who has the remotest comprehension of peoples live say something like that, it beggars belief and could be a sign of real trouble ahead if they are genuinely so far out of touch.
  13. Interesting discussion, those mortgage payments are eye watering, Two things to add, the government have not allowed house prices to drop effectively for over 20 years, expect more financial props. However, sadly I can't imagine what it's like to be a slave to 1500k and above a month for 25 years or so, I was worried about having to find 200 quid. If I was renting I would buy but blimey it's a massive risk and you may never be free. However in the current housing market, apart from going permanently on benefits and getting LA housing you can never be free. What a terrible state of affairs.
  14. This is true, I have had reason to look in detail at buying half a London flat and renting it. Tbh you would be lucky to make a profit at all. I've now decided the only way is to buy a cheaper one outright, you would get a slightly better return than a savings account. Hardly worth it without price increases.
  15. I never like the way they quote yield, they never include expenses such as voids, management fees and tax. BTL is not worth it unless you are a cash buyer of a freehold property.
  16. Good old hpc 10 years of kicking the can and we all still hope. Truth is, they can see what's happening so will control it, they may want a crash. Pumping money has kept the can rolling so why not carry on , those that matter are still having a jolly good time.
  17. They think both of these are an increase in gdp, gdp really measures the growth in the amount skimmed of the top. However the country seems to happily absorb it all.
  18. I appreciate what you're saying, but it is coming across as a bit old fashioned tbh. You don't seem to be able to relate to what I'm suggesting. Again it depends what roles you are referring to, maybe call centre or um call centre. Ok maybe programming I suppose, but I've seen a lot of money wasted by doing this. Oddly the tasks that would benefit from out sourcing are probably project management, accountancy and other middle management, but for some reason they never are. Can you give some examples of the type of things you are thinking of.
  19. You may or may not work on several boards or whatever, however the outsourcing sentiment is nothing new, been around for 20 years or more. Obviously I will add. However the government needs to see things the opposite way, outsourcing is bad. So one way or another they will have to make it worthwhile employing UK workers. Whatever all the not so clever money saving and money control plans have literally been done to death and are definitely old fashioned thinking now, businesses that rely on this will surely die. Businesses have to think and act in very different ways now and I do wonder whether those who do sit on boards of established companies really have the capability to see what is now the way forward. In fact it could all be fashioned on a laptop on the kitchen table, ideas are what matter not the old boy network. If the UK and the EU stick with the establishment private club they will get left behind and already are to an extent. This is amplified by the covid crisis.
  20. But it doesn't matter, it's just available money there is no real money the only control there is is a lending valve. Growth is money supply and velocity.
  21. The biggest problem for housepricecrash is that the currency didn't bat an eyelid when they started printing, maybe that's because they can print. So they will print forever. There is now a massive amount of money sloshing around that as soon as a little confidence returns that will be it. House prices will go to the moon. Actually I'm not sure I believe that myself, I guess it depends on how much permanent damage has been done to the economy.
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