iamnumerate Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 (edited) On 23/03/2017 at 3:48 PM, Gigantic Purple Slug said: Back of envelope calc : Current oil price : US 50. Saudi price to balance budget : US 100. Saudi pumps 10 million barrels per day. So is currently losing 50x10 million = US 1/2 billion per day, or about US 180 billion PA. Current Saudi GDP is around 650 billion US pa. This doesn't look great. Sounds great for the rest of the world. One great argument for fracking is that it would bankrupt Saudi, Iran, Russia and Venezuela (although they will do that on their own) - the greatest sponsors of terrorism in the world. Edited June 7, 2017 by iamnumerate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, iamnumerate said: Sounds great for the rest of the world. One great argument for fracking is that it would bankrupt Saudi, Iran, Russia and Venezuela (although they will do that on their own) - the greatest sponsors of terrorism in the world. You forget about the USA. Around $50 they only cover costs and will pump most of their oil reserves without the juicy profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 3 hours ago, rollover said: You forget about the USA. Around $50 they only cover costs and will pump most of their oil reserves without the juicy profit. Difference is that the US and also Iran are not as heavily dependent on the oil exports to finance budgetary spending. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 3 hours ago, rollover said: You forget about the USA. Around $50 they only cover costs and will pump most of their oil reserves without the juicy profit. I thought that some shale oil producers only need $45 per barrel http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/30/leaner-and-meaner-us-shale-greater-threat-to-opec-after-oil-price-war.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord D'arcy Pew Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 (edited) 20 hours ago, hotairmail said: Gradually the true story seems to be being revealed to the populace as to why we have Islamic terrorism and thousands of refugees washing up on the shores of Europe. It all started with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the CIA leveraging the extreme Islamists who were brave and excellent fighters. It worked so well they extended the project to oust the other hard men of the Middle East (Saddam, Ghaddafi, Assad) who had allied themselves to the Soviet Union and then Russia. We left power vacuums in their stead into which these sadists trod. https://www.ft.com/content/54eb9e5e-4ab7-11e7-a3f4-c742b9791d43 The network that remains at the heart of UK Islamist extremism Cold war allies al-Muhajiroun broke the bargain and turned on their host Yes, they are a Sunni Islamic mercenary army, originality trained by the West. They were funded by the oil rich Arab states, to fight the Soviets. They now seek a Sunni Caliphate (Empire), and are killing non Sunni's in acts of mass genocide. Turning the Middle East into a Sunni only zone is their primary objective. It appears their neighbours are trying to blame it all on Qatar. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/06/qatar-crisis-share-stories-of-life-as-the-blockade-takes-effect Edited June 7, 2017 by Lord D'arcy Pew Added Content Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryrot Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 20 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Is none of them on the table ? Looks like its hotting up - ISIS (Sunni) attacks on Shia homeland (Iran) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-40184641 "Twin attacks on the Iranian parliament and Ayatollah Khomeini's mausoleum in the capital, Tehran, have killed at least 12 people and injured many more. The assault on the parliament building appears to be over, after hours of intermittent, audible gunfire there. A suicide bomber died at the mausoleum. Iranian officials say they managed to foil a third attack. The so-called Islamic State group (IS) has claimed it carried out the attacks, which would be a first in Iran." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryrot Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-40184641 "Twin attacks on the Iranian parliament and Ayatollah Khomeini's mausoleum in the capital, Tehran, have killed at least 12 people and injured many more. The assault on the parliament building appears to be over, after hours of intermittent, audible gunfire there. A suicide bomber died at the mausoleum. Iranian officials say they managed to foil a third attack. The so-called Islamic State group (IS) has claimed it carried out the attacks, which would be a first in Iran." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, iamnumerate said: I thought that some shale oil producers only need $45 per barrel http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/30/leaner-and-meaner-us-shale-greater-threat-to-opec-after-oil-price-war.html Calculation always depends on what political slant you want to put on the situation. Two more cnbc articles that may be of interest : http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/06/us-oil-output-to-hit-record-10-million-barrels-a-day-next-year-eia.html http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/02/us-oil-output-to-grow-more-even-as-drillers-costs-rise-analysts-say.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knock out johnny Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said: Difference is that the US and also Iran are not as heavily dependent on the oil exports to finance budgetary spending. Problem wiith Iran is it is heavily dependent on oil IMPORTS I kid not - actually it's petrol/diesel as last time I checked it had a huge deficit in refinery infrastructure. IMHO they really should have concentrated on increasing their oil refining capability instead of drawing the ire of the world with their nuclear program, but hey-ho what do I know. Edited June 7, 2017 by knock out johnny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 According to the Russians, they are perfectly able to manage with oil at $40 for ever, if required. Certainly, there is no threat to the economy from such prices: Russia Can ‘Live Forever’ With $40 Oil A race to the bottom in oil prices may not have many winners, but Russia is certain it can survive. It’s less sure about hedge funds. “We’re actually ready to live forever with the oil price at $40 or below,” Russian Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said in a Bloomberg Television interview at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday. “All macroeconomic policy is now based on the assumption of the oil price of $40.” While the world’s biggest energy exporter has made clear it’s hunkering down for years of depressed oil prices, “forever” might be a slight exaggeration, according to the head of Russia’s second-largest bank. Still, “I fully agree with the minister that the oil price is no threat to the economy,” VTB Group Chief Executive Officer Andrey Kostin said during a panel on Friday. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-01/russia-can-live-forever-with-40-oil-in-warning-to-hedge-funds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 (edited) The whole region is about to explode: Saudi Arabia Behind Deadly Attacks in Tehran https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201706071054407033-tehran-attacks-saudi-arabia-revolutionary-guards/ Edited June 7, 2017 by Errol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Errol said: The whole region is about to explode: Saudi Arabia Behind Deadly Attacks in Tehran https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201706071054407033-tehran-attacks-saudi-arabia-revolutionary-guards/ Oh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElPapasito Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 7 hours ago, iamnumerate said: Sounds great for the rest of the world. One great argument for fracking is that it would bankrupt Saudi, Iran, Russia and Venezuela (although they will do that on their own) - the greatest sponsors of terrorism in the world. Ooh yeah darn those pesky Venezuelan international terrorists! I think it was anti-Govt protesters that burned a pro-Government supporter alive on the streets of Caracas a few days ago. But Venezuela's govt is indeed corrupt as hell and has incredibly managed to bankrupt itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 USA is currently the biggest sponsor of terrorism in any event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 4 hours ago, Errol said: The whole region is about to explode: Saudi Arabia Behind Deadly Attacks in Tehran https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201706071054407033-tehran-attacks-saudi-arabia-revolutionary-guards/ "Let Allah sort it out" Sarah Palin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Funn3r Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Interesting take on why Qatar suddeenly in crisis. No idea if it is true but sounds plausible.http://www.dinardaily.net/t64229-the-war-is-being-won Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 2 hours ago, rantnrave said: "Let Allah sort it out" Sarah Palin First time I've agreed with her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Quote US suspects Russian hackers planted fake news behind Qatar crisis US investigators believe Russian hackers breached Qatar's state news agency and planted a fake news report that contributed to a crisis among the US' closest Gulf allies, according to US officials briefed on the investigation. The FBI recently sent a team of investigators to Doha to help the Qatari government investigate the alleged hacking incident, Qatari and US government officials say. CNN Why not to blame Putin for the crisis? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC1 Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 (edited) 12 hours ago, Funn3r said: Interesting take on why Qatar suddeenly in crisis. No idea if it is true but sounds plausible.http://www.dinardaily.net/t64229-the-war-is-being-won I don't buy the official narrative on this, that's for sure. Lots of politics at play, of course, and nothing significant happens in the ME without the involvement of at least one secret service, so obviously more to this than meets the eye. Can any of that link be verified (can't search now as at work)? Has this Reality woman just been arrested? Does that private agency exist as described? Edited June 8, 2017 by LC1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Don't know if it had been written anywhere else, but Turkey is sending troops to Qatar to support them. This has almost zero UK coverage mainly due to the election, but even so, imagine if it kicked off between Saudi/Egypt and Turkey. Turkey is supposed to be as member of NATO, but seriously don't think they would have many supporters on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 (edited) The Pivot? Qatar Foreign Minister To Visit Moscow On Saturday "Negotiations will be held on Saturday," a Russian foreign ministry official said. However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Vladimir Putin does not yet plan to meet with al-Thani. Meanwhile according to a Nomura research reports, Russia and the U.S. may become the biggest beneficiaries among LNG producers from the dispute between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors. Nomura's Gordon Kwan writes that a big part of Qatar’s finances come from international investors, indicating the spat in Mideast may negatively affect sentiment of new projects or expansions based in Qatar. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-08/pivot-qatar-foreign-minister-visit-moscow-saturday Edited June 8, 2017 by Errol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Could we see a Russian military base in Qatar? Some good places for a naval base as well. Put a few S-400s in, some Iskanders .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 On 08/06/2017 at 5:23 AM, Funn3r said: Interesting take on why Qatar suddeenly in crisis. No idea if it is true but sounds plausible.http://www.dinardaily.net/t64229-the-war-is-being-won Onee of the theories is that Robber state KSA is considering invading Qatar (the richest country in the world) as KSA desperately needs resources to prop up its regime. Qatar having seen KSA cosy up to Donald have seen this, put aside theological differences and started to get friendly with Iran hence Irans offer to supply Qatar with the food it needs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Turkey moving in troops will prevent Saudi from invading (presumably). Remains to be seen whether Russia will offer support (given that Qatar as an unpleasant record of backing terrorists). However, if Russia thinks the US is playing a geostrategic game, it will likely get involved just to get assets on the table in the area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) Another under reported story that could have an impact on everyone: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/21/saudi-king-upends-royal-succession-names-son-mohammed-bin-salman/ Could this kick things off in Saudi? Edited June 21, 2017 by reddog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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