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Homebuyers' Confidence Tumbles Over High Prices And Interest Rate Fears

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Telegraph 28/7/14

'Confidence in the housing market has tumbled to its lowest level in at least three years amid fears of over-inflated prices and a potential rises in interest rates.

Across the country, the net balance of people who believe the next year will be a good time to buy a home has plunged to 5pc from 34pc in the end of the first three months of the year, according to Halifax’s quarterly Housing Market Confidence tracker.

The figure represents the difference between the proportion of those surveyed who are positive about buying in the next 12 months and proportion who think it will be a bad time for buyers.

People in London and the South East are more negative than any other region. Those in Scotland and the North East are the most confident about buying, the survey found.

Halifax said there has been a sharp rise in people who say rising prices are a barrier to buying. Some 35pc cited the concern compared with 20pc this time last year. Worries about interest rates rising are also increasing, with 18pc of people pointing to the possibility of action by the Bank of England as the recovery continues as a factor, up from 13pc last year.

While feelings about buying a home are their most negative since the survey began in 2011, confidence that the coming months are a good time to sell a property has never been higher.

An net balance of 25pc of people believe that the next 12 months are a good time to sell a property rather than a bad time.

Craig McKinlay, mortgages director at Halifax, said: “Over the past two years consumer confidence has continued to grow, however it appears that we’ve reached a tipping point, with the equilibrium between buyers and sellers much more out of sync.”

“People believe that it’s a good time to sell but not buy, particularly in London and the South East where house price expectations are generally higher and buyers appear to be less inclined to rush into buying a property as we have seen over the past 12 months.”

Last week the property analyst Hometrack said the number of new potential buyers registering with estate agents starting to fall. London in particular is showing signs of a rapid cooldown, it said.

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I agree with the count, it's getting exciting again, price cuts in prime areas have begun.

It would be an excellent time for a crash seeing that there are almost no HPC'ers left meaning that the last of the folls has been sucked in. Most of the money driving this booms was the winners of the last boom recirculating their ill got funds. Once they lost there are no buyers of last resort left and Japan style deflation and permanently low prices will arrive on the shores of the UK.

Who's left and is able to spend ££££+ on a house? Students? Retiring boomers? The foreigners? Forget it, the markets going to decline for a very long time.

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Around my area, Wellington in Somerset, prices never went particularly mad. However, the number of drops I'm seeing on RM is very encouraging. Plenty of four-bed detached places that were touching £300k are now sitting at around £260k and that nice stamp duty threshold.

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I think George Osborne blew his load too soon....not sure this thing can hang on until next May?!

I think that his "nice little boom" needed to be a bit bigger if he wanted it to be ticking over nicely come the May election. It will be interesting to see how things develop.

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I think that his "nice little boom" needed to be a bit bigger if he wanted it to be ticking over nicely come the May election. It will be interesting to see how things develop.

Wendell: It's a mess, ain't it, sheriff?

Ed Tom Bell: If it ain't, it'll do till the mess gets here.

:):P fits well..

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That nice little boom will certainly turn into a nice little bust.

I'm hopeful that it may well turn into a massive bust. My touchstone for prices 'getting real' is 1997 nominal prices compounded forward at 3%, giving you a multiplier of about 1.7. In my neck of the wood you need about 30% off current prices to get you there.

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Wendell: It's a mess, ain't it, sheriff?

Ed Tom Bell: If it ain't, it'll do till the mess gets here.

:):P fits well..

It's a great line, isn't it. I felt it summed things up nicely a couple of years ago and I can't see that anything material has changed yet.

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Brilliant line.

This is mine for all the LL's out there ..

Ed Tom Bell: Here last week they found this couple out in California. They rent out rooms for old people, kill'em, bury'em in the yard, cash their social security checks. Well, they'd tortur'em first, I don't know why. Maybe the television set was broke.

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I'm hopeful that it may well turn into a massive bust. My touchstone for prices 'getting real' is 1997 nominal prices compounded forward at 3%, giving you a multiplier of about 1.7. In my neck of the wood you need about 30% off current prices to get you there.

I'm looking at about 40% in this Northern posh area.

Had another asking price offer knocked back, £235,000 is apparently not enough to secure a 2 bed terrace house of 77 Sq metres. Somebody still has the sentiment.

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I love the fact that sellers think it's a great time, but buyers are more sceptical.

It just shows what a complete la-la land most sellers are living in. Absolutely no comprehension of any fundamentals, property just always goes up donchaknow.

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I'm hopeful that it may well turn into a massive bust. My touchstone for prices 'getting real' is 1997 nominal prices compounded forward at 3%, giving you a multiplier of about 1.7. In my neck of the wood you need about 30% off current prices to get you there.

About the same as I am thinking ... I see a number of flats on the market for 130/140k (Bournemouth/Poole area) which I would not part with much more than 100k.

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Im really glad I held on I know its turned because on a recent inspection my landlord asked if I would be interested in buying the house I`m renting! I can smell the fear, lots of "sold signs currently being replaced with new estate agents signs as sales fall through.

Im going to hang on till there are bloody corpses on the street before I make an offer now, Im riding this b!tch all the way to the bottom.

Best of all I wont have to listen to all the property winners bo11ocks anymore. Good Times!

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The Mail had the same story on their homepage briefly this morning but quickly moved it off to the Money section.

Interestingly, the mail report mentioned the exceptional few "hot spots" bucking the trend - one of which happened to be the exact location we are trying to sell my father's house and were have had two viewings in 6 months. Wonder what elsewhere is like?

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Im really glad I held on I know its turned because on a recent inspection my landlord asked if I would be interested in buying the house I`m renting! I can smell the fear, lots of "sold signs currently being replaced with new estate agents signs as sales fall through.

Im going to hang on till there are bloody corpses on the street before I make an offer now, Im riding this b!tch all the way to the bottom.

Best of all I wont have to listen to all the property winners bo11ocks anymore. Good Times!

I`m thinking they are going to be low for a long time after it blows, there is no rush IMO to jump in at all.

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About the same as I am thinking ... I see a number of flats on the market for 130/140k (Bournemouth/Poole area) which I would not part with much more than 100k.

Do you have any links, just out of interest, for what you would buy at 100k?

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Im going to hang on till there are bloody corpses on the street before I make an offer now, Im riding this b!tch all the way to the bottom.

Best of all I wont have to listen to all the property winners bo11ocks anymore. Good Times!

I think its harder to predict the bottom than the top. All I can offer is first hand experience. I waited and waited and waited, then I had an estate agent say to me that I'd be mental to buy and would be repossessed. So I knew it was time and bought. The year, 1995.

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I think its harder to predict the bottom than the top. All I can offer is first hand experience. I waited and waited and waited, then I had an estate agent say to me that I'd be mental to buy and would be repossessed. So I knew it was time and bought. The year, 1995.

By holding out you timed the market to perfection. I personally know someone who did the same thing in 2009. I suspect though, with the benefit of 20 yrs hindsight, you'd have been just as happy to have bought in '94 or '96?

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I think that his "nice little boom" needed to be a bit bigger if he wanted it to be ticking over nicely come the May election. It will be interesting to see how things develop.

It looks like it lasted long enough for his parents to downsize, sell off the house and move to a less expensive one nearby, in PCL.

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