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Everything posted by bankstersparadise

  1. Easy call for you, of course Aberdeen is going to blow hard when the oil industry starts to face facts that the north sea is over.
  2. Hits. Nail. On. Head. Yet another divide and conquer strategy to create yet another victim class.
  3. Yes this is the main point here in all of this. The BMA latched onto the general dissatisfaction of the 20-35 year old junor docs and politicised the whole thing.
  4. "Either there was a freak increase in value or Marie really knows the property world, so this is a skill she should capitalise on more when she can." - One of my fave quotes for a while ;-) She should write a book, "You too can be a property market genius".
  5. Friend above exchanged last week and completes on Friday. He later found out that the person buying his house is an "investor" taking 75% LTV BTL mortgage and the asking rental price would give a gross yield of 3.65%!!! This madness from the greater fool BTL "investor" (aka Idiot) has allowed my mate to slighly overpay for the rig in Berko, I still think it is the right thing to do though, The above example shows how the ripple effect works in many different ways, and what can seem an irrational price to you is entirely rational in the context of something else in the chain that you aren't privy to.
  6. Just found this thread and it is very funny reading it now. QEJunkie proved to be pretty correct, literally called it very well before the big rip in prices in 2014 and 15. Wonder what happend to QEJunkie and whether he's cashed out yet?
  7. I agree with all of the post above. But this last point really struck a chord with me and is a very good point. In my opinion humans are very very bad at ever analysing and more importantly, UNDERSTANDING what has just happened and why. Let alone what is happeneing right now and what might possible happen in the future. This is why market efficency is generally not observable. This lack of collective understanding is the reason my mate just sold his Twickenham terrace to a BTLer (who is taking leverage, not a cash buyer) for a 3.45% gross yield IF he gets his asking rent! So there are still a few greater fools knocking round who are driving the very very last drop out of this current market. We just need the last idiots to spend the last of their (borrowed) capital and the market will finally grind to a halt.
  8. Fiat money and fractional reserve lending is all a game of confidence, they have to keep up appearances.
  9. Like I said - house is too inadequate to sit it out for c.10 years. Family in a cramped flat in the urban south east seems to fit that description.
  10. STR is very ballsey in my opinion, nearly as ballsey as buying a second home/BTL. At this point in the cycle I would rather STR than buy another house if I was forced to but I would rather sit on my hands and do nothing. Low yielding London, South East and other UK is a cleary sell as a speculative investment but STR is a different calculation. When you STR you are moving from a geared neutral position to a geared short position - assuming you have a mortgage. Both of those is dangerous as leverage is involved. However an owner occupied property is not an investment, shelter is a human need and if you sell your equity in one then you have to rent something or buy another one in the future. So you better be 100% sure the crash is coming, because if it doesn't you will severely financially damage yourself. I think the only people who should STR are those that have the following circumstances; - Their personal finances are so poor they woudn't be able to afford a 30-40% draw-down in property prices. i.e. no other savings, high LTV, risky job, property too small and inadequate to be able to "sit it out" for a long period c.10 years, had to bend the truth to re-mortgage etc etc. - The cost of renting a place is less than the mortgage interest plus maintenance. i.e. they are in a low yield part of the country. Otherwise you should just weather the storm as an owner occupier. I think the storm is a 2017 event at the earliest. Oh and if you do STR then don't hold the proceeds in sterling cash, diversify.
  11. http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/colombias-president-legalizes-medical-marijuana-35908872 Already happened 5 days ago!
  12. My only real Xmas housing conversation was last night at one of my best mates house, his Dad telling me how they're downsizing their 185 sqm detached in SL3 (was 40m from flooding a few years back) as it's too big and they won't need to commute to London anymore. I said, looks like a good market to be downsizing in, good luck with the search. Despite what the HPC forum would have you believe not all Boomers are crazy!!
  13. With our current account deficit there is little rationale to "save the pound" at these levels.
  14. You can use the following in ISA/SIPP to deposit in FX quite easily: IEGE Euro short term money market fund XUSD US Dollar cash ETF XSWC Swiss Franc cash ETF
  15. I know what you are getting at (ht steve keen), but of course this statement isnt quite right becuase Osbourne hasn't been de-leveraging.....
  16. Oh I see yes. That's why UK 10 year is trading at +126bps over the German 10 year, highest level since the EMU started and Germany decided to carry all the unproductive guys in the med.
  17. Care to explain? The only way the sharade continues is ultra low rates so there can be a perception that the debt is repayable. If IRs were high then lots of debt would go bad and get written off.
  18. No it's 0% for 5 years....free money. Very rational for people to be taking it.
  19. It's the economy, stupid. Yes someone had to win I guess, but on both occasions it wasn't the incumbent party was it? Trump vs. Hilary, the difference is Trump hasn't got wall street backers.
  20. If they do less than 25bps the market will flip out. Credibility will be shot. Better off doing nothing than 5-10bps.
  21. 100% move in something very small doesn't get us back to the moon - brent crude back to 75$ for example! In 2 years it can happen, as long as Syria is sunni and Saudi can turn the taps off again. Gold always does well when the Fed lifts off. 1.30 this time next year is punchy as I said, but we will be closer to 1.30 than to 1.10.
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