The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

[scottbeard]

28 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

the real glory days are behind bitcoin. the days of pulling a 16,000% profit like I did, are long gone

BTC as an INVESTMENT maybe.  Although that's just the "early adopter" premium.  

28 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

Question is:

will bitcoin survive longer term once it reaches a more stable price plateau? can bitcoin survive when it no longer promises 16,000% returns? how much of its core value is based upon ‘this could go to the moon’

BTC is money, so can be used for transactions and as a store of value indefinitely.  Indeed, if it doesn't go up and down like a yoyo it's a better store of value than now.

[Lagarde's Drift]

Y'all looking at it from the viewpoint of fiat. That's why it's hard to understand.

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

On 16/07/2023 at 21:40, Lagarde's Drift said:

Y'all looking at it from the viewpoint of fiat. That's why it's hard to understand.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Buffer Bear
To add 💯

[Data Dave]

I need brain power. I was having a 'thought storm' over the weekend about if BTC wasn't priced in dollars (USD) and was priced in 'something' else. Anyone free to chip in and help me sound this out?

Is there any advantage to a non USD BTC? Could it ever be forked with this change in protocol? 

Now im aware someone will want to tell me but I can buy BTC in Sterling, EUR etc. But all you are seeing there, with a price on screen is the, for example, EUR dollar price of it.  

If someone created Bitcoin, same everything, but it was priced in say, for example, Swiss Franc's, would this be a disadvantage? 

🤓

[jiltedjen]

1 hour ago, Data Dave said:

I need brain power. I was having a 'thought storm' over the weekend about if BTC wasn't priced in dollars (USD) and was priced in 'something' else. Anyone free to chip in and help me sound this out?

Is there any advantage to a non USD BTC? Could it ever be forked with this change in protocol? 

Now im aware someone will want to tell me but I can buy BTC in Sterling, EUR etc. But all you are seeing there, with a price on screen is the, for example, EUR dollar price of it.  

If someone created Bitcoin, same everything, but it was priced in say, for example, Swiss Franc's, would this be a disadvantage? 

🤓

It’s priced in all currencies? what are you trying to say? 
 

I used to quote the price in £ but it’s more common to quote in $

[markyh]

2 hours ago, Data Dave said:

I need brain power. I was having a 'thought storm' over the weekend about if BTC wasn't priced in dollars (USD) and was priced in 'something' else. Anyone free to chip in and help me sound this out?

Is there any advantage to a non USD BTC? Could it ever be forked with this change in protocol? 

Now im aware someone will want to tell me but I can buy BTC in Sterling, EUR etc. But all you are seeing there, with a price on screen is the, for example, EUR dollar price of it.  

If someone created Bitcoin, same everything, but it was priced in say, for example, Swiss Franc's, would this be a disadvantage? 

🤓

Apart from small very local markets, everything in the world prices off the $ USD , as it it the Global Reserve Currency.  Oil , Gold, wheat, Coal , Natural Gas, Sugar, Bitcoin. 

To change it would need a new GRC.  The £ Sterling was the GRC for over a hundred years until just after the end of WW1. 

The British Empire exported inflation to the rest of the world. 

[Jonesy74]

12 hours ago, Data Dave said:

I need brain power.

🤓

Yea… there is absolutely nothing about USD in bitcoin itself. The price in USD is just people selling it for USD. You also have people selling it for a wide range of other fiat currencies. It’s like saying let’s redesign oil to not be linked to USD but to a different currency.

[Data Dave]

24 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

It’s priced in all currencies? what are you trying to say? 
 

I used to quote the price in £ but it’s more common to quote in $

Hey. No, not so much as I’m trying to say anything to make a point, I’m just thinking aloud I guess. 
 

It’s priced in all currencies yes, but there is no spread across currencies within that am I right in saying? Ie I could no longer buy in EUR and sell in YEN and make a profit, there is no arbitrage opps..?

If that’s the case then the BTC price in EUR (for eg) is simply the price of BTC in USD converted to spot EUR?

3 hours ago, dannyf said:

It’s like saying let’s redesign oil to not be linked to USD but to a different currency.

Great example. 
 

Ok here’s a scenario, BRICS forms a gold backed currency for commodities. 
 

Someone forks BTC and prices it in this new currency. Let’s call it Goldilocks (GLDOX’S) 
 

You now have BTC USD and BTC GLDOX’S. 

Is there any advantage then to BTC or a fork being priced in something other than USD? A kind of East and West BTC.

 

[jiltedjen]

No need to fork bitcoin.

and there are always arbitrage opportunities, but naturally the market removes them due to people taking advantage of them!

bitcoin is rarer than gold, and can’t be printed like paper gold. 
 

if there is a new gold based currency there will still be arbitrage opportunities between that and a range of currencies.

I don’t agree that it’s always priced in USD and then £ versions is just converted via exchange rates from USD as it’s actively traded in all currencies, and in some 3rd world countries the arbitrage opportunities are huge (but risky) 

[scottbeard]

2 hours ago, Data Dave said:

It’s priced in all currencies yes, but there is no spread across currencies within that am I right in saying? Ie I could no longer buy in EUR and sell in YEN and make a profit, there is no arbitrage opps..?

If that’s the case then the BTC price in EUR (for eg) is simply the price of BTC in USD converted to spot EUR?

But you could just as easily say the reverse, i.e .the BTC price in USD is just its price in EUR converted to USD?

You can buy BTC with any currency that someone is prepared to take in exchange for one, or with other crypto.

[Data Dave]

5 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

But you could just as easily say the reverse, i.e .the BTC price in USD is just its price in EUR converted to USD?

You can buy BTC with any currency that someone is prepared to take in exchange for one, or with other crypto

So is it not a race to buy and hold BTC in the fiat currency that is inflating(/expandingM2) that same currency the fastest then? As BTC will be 'worth more' relative to that? 

21M BTC (eg) 4Tn in USD circulating. If that increases to 8Tn USD in circulation there is still only 21M BTC. 

So is this not where arbitrage could appear to? Or is ab's only apparent due to liquidity, availability and exchange pricing?

Im asking out of naivety fyi...im not fishing for something just enjoy a chat round the subject.

Going back to point about is there any advantage to BTC being priced in anything other than FIAT. Could it ever be? I guess no right?

So eg the dollar ends today. What then happens to the dollar price of BTC? 

[scottbeard]

8 minutes ago, Data Dave said:

So is it not a race to buy and hold BTC in the fiat currency that is inflating(/expandingM2) that same currency the fastest then? As BTC will be 'worth more' relative to that? 

21M BTC (eg) 4Tn in USD circulating. If that increases to 8Tn USD in circulation there is still only 21M BTC. 

So is this not where arbitrage could appear to? Or is ab's only apparent due to liquidity, availability and exchange pricing?

Im asking out of naivety fyi...im not fishing for something just enjoy a chat round the subject.

Going back to point about is there any advantage to BTC being priced in anything other than FIAT. Could it ever be? I guess no right?

So eg the dollar ends today. What then happens to the dollar price of BTC? 

You don't hold BTC "in a fiat currency".  You just hold it.

The best analogy for BTC is "digital gold" so just replace BTC with Gold in your post above and it probably answers all the questions for you.

(BTW I love your data-driven posts: big fan!)

 

 

[Data Dave]

29 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

You don't hold BTC "in a fiat currency".  You just hold it.

Ok, this is the bit I struggle with then lol. Because its value is relative to the fiat its priced in no?

But regardless, youre saying a BTC valued in anything else, fiat or otherwise (and ill just say something barmy like for eg valued in a fresh water index) was no merit?

35 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

(BTW I love your data-driven posts: big fan!)

hey hey - thanking you kindly sir 

[scottbeard]

30 minutes ago, Data Dave said:

Ok, this is the bit I struggle with then lol. Because its value is relative to the fiat its priced in no?

But regardless, youre saying a BTC valued in anything else, fiat or otherwise (and ill just say something barmy like for eg valued in a fresh water index) was no merit?

hey hey - thanking you kindly sir 

No not really.  Again, think of Gold - the actual true value of a Gold coin doesn't depend upon the USD.

You gave the example of what happens if the number of USD in existence suddenly doubled from 4Tr to 8Tr.

Of course the value of a BTC priced in dollars would double (or a Gold coin for that matter).

But a BTC isn't actually any more valuable in terms of, for example, the amount of something real that you could buy with it.  It's the difference between price and value.

What's happened is that the true value of $1 has halved, whereas the true value of 1 BTC is simply unchanged.

I think there are two different things to think about here, either of which could cause the USD price of BTC to increase:

1.  An event that causes people to think BTC is great and they want to have more of it.  This increases the actual true value of 1 BTC. BTC, priced in whatever fiat currency you like, will increase by the same % as supply is unchanged but demand is higher.  

2.  An event that causes the USD to fall in value.  This doesn't directly change the actual true value of 1 BTC. BTC, priced in USD, will show an increase, but BTC priced in other fiat currency will be unchanged.  All you are seeing is the fall in the value of the USD.

In both cases you are better off holding BTC than USD, but in the first case you're actually getting an investment return from the BTC, whereas in the second it's just a currency FX effect.

[As a corollary of 2 it's likely that a major dent in the value of the USD might actually be beneficial to BTC as people might trust fiat currencies less altogether, i.e. 2 might cause 1, but let's ignore that for now]

[jiltedjen]

You need to think of the concept of ‘value’

everything has some inherent value. 

fiat currencies constantly inflate, meaning the measure of value is like a shrinking ruler, but it’s still measuring the same value. 
 

If you have a shrinking ruler and you measure something which has not changed. The value has not changed, just the ruler.

Bitcoins value is that it’s the only thing which cannot be printed, it’s value is as an escape from devaluation via printing, even gold is not as good as bitcoin, as you can never know it’s supply, as it’s not physically traded, there is too much fake gold.

Bitcoin has an open ledger. Everyone can see what’s real, it’s a clever concept. Every transaction is so called ‘physically traded’. 
 

So yes if all Fiat currencies devalue in enough time Bitcoin will rise in $ terms even though it’s value doesn’t change. The perfect storm happened in the recent bitcoin bubble as there was a huge amount of hand-outs causing inflation, Bitcoin soaked it up.

also perception is important, at the time it was reasonable to think money printing would just keep accelerating, and the future price was priced in. Turned out money is tightening again or perceived to be tightening.

The million dollar question. Is what is the value of 21 million rock solid value store? which cannot be printed.

the cycles seem to be showing diminishing highs, which is what you would expect from a maturing asset class, eventually it will stabilise at what current human society values it at. 

The resistance to making it ‘mainstream’ is hampering its eventual ‘mature price’ as governments like to manage human spending patterns ‘for the good of society’.

if you have something which reaches its eventual mature value. the question is no so much will bitcoin be worth more in the future.

but the real question. Is what will everything else do outside of bitcoin? Will the $ fall? will we all print money like crazy? 

Or the super scary thing happens (to Bitcoiners at least). Which is that world governments stop messing with the money supply (unlikely) and enough confidence is either restored in Fiat currencies or even a gold standard currency. 

people with a massively negative view on humanity would say that yes, there is a place for bitcoin, as humans don’t make right choices. It’s easier to print money as it steals value from wages and from society (it’s a tax in effect) but most people don’t see it as it is.

and history shows that Fiat currencies devalue quickly over say a 100 year period. 

so eventually owning bitcoin will maintain value of your savings, (rise at the level of inflation), but not offer gains above that, as the long phase of finding its mature value (where the real money is made) is over.

while savings accounts pay lower than inflation, it’s better to own bitcoin, or if stock markets underperform.

but honestly no-one knows where Bitcoin is in its life cycle. Has it only found half its value? Has it already passed its maximum value? 

personally I think it has a bit more to go, maybe 20-50% gains from here at a guess, but the days of serious returns are past us.

we might find as we slip into another world recession, that April 2025 also co-insides with massive stimulus from governments and the acceleration of trashing Fiat currency, so might have another perfect storm.

no-one knows. 

[longgone]

Was bitcoin worth more when it was 29k in 2020 or worth more now at 29k in 2023.

Store of value. 

 

[scottbeard]

10 hours ago, longgone said:

Was bitcoin worth more when it was 29k in 2020 or worth more now at 29k in 2023.

Store of value. 

 

Yay for cherry picking dates and figures rather than addressing the fundamental points.

That's numberwang!

[Data Dave]

On 25/07/2023 at 12:15, scottbeard said:

No not really.  Again, think of Gold - the actual true value of a Gold coin doesn't depend upon the USD.

You gave the example of what happens if the number of USD in existence suddenly doubled from 4Tr to 8Tr.

Of course the value of a BTC priced in dollars would double (or a Gold coin for that matter).

But a BTC isn't actually any more valuable in terms of, for example, the amount of something real that you could buy with it.  It's the difference between price and value.

What's happened is that the true value of $1 has halved, whereas the true value of 1 BTC is simply unchanged.

I think there are two different things to think about here, either of which could cause the USD price of BTC to increase:

1.  An event that causes people to think BTC is great and they want to have more of it.  This increases the actual true value of 1 BTC. BTC, priced in whatever fiat currency you like, will increase by the same % as supply is unchanged but demand is higher.  

2.  An event that causes the USD to fall in value.  This doesn't directly change the actual true value of 1 BTC. BTC, priced in USD, will show an increase, but BTC priced in other fiat currency will be unchanged.  All you are seeing is the fall in the value of the USD.

In both cases you are better off holding BTC than USD, but in the first case you're actually getting an investment return from the BTC, whereas in the second it's just a currency FX effect.

[As a corollary of 2 it's likely that a major dent in the value of the USD might actually be beneficial to BTC as people might trust fiat currencies less altogether, i.e. 2 might cause 1, but let's ignore that for now]

Gotcha. Thanks, im 98% 'there'. To answer the question 'ish' I can't see any intrinsic benefit in BTC being valued in anything else, FIAT or water, or even molecules lol. Yikes, I ask some bizarre questions 🤭.

[PrincessNutNut]

On 7/27/2023 at 1:35 PM, Data Dave said:

Gotcha. Thanks, im 98% 'there'. To answer the question 'ish' I can't see any intrinsic benefit in BTC being valued in anything else, FIAT or water, or even molecules lol. Yikes, I ask some bizarre questions 🤭.

As a store of value, you need to know its price.

As a currency, it automatically assumes exchange rates to trade relative to others.

It's not a commodity - i.e. it has no utility other than as a token for transactions.

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

@markyh

 

 

[PalmerEldritch]

According to the SEC, Hex's price had by June 30 fallen more than 98% from its peak, while PulseChain and PulseX offerings are now "practically worthless."

🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

[markyh]

13 hours ago, Buffer Bear said:

@markyh

 

 

They come after all crypto founders, stab in the Dark.  None of these Crypto's fail the Howie test. 

[markyh]

9 hours ago, PalmerEldritch said:

According to the SEC, Hex's price had by June 30 fallen more than 98% from its peak, while PulseChain and PulseX offerings are now "practically worthless."

🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

Hex sold off 60% yesterday too, goodbye to weak hands. 

[jiltedjen]

Don’t invest in s**tcoins. Alts are all just pump and dumps and scams. There is only room for one main crypto and perhaps one large Alt which plays a role of silver to bitcoins gold. 

glad to see the Alts get wiped away, they only act to damage bitcoin. They are a little useful though.

”why should I buy bitcoin? I can invent my own bitcoin tomorrow”

then you can simply point to the pile of broken dreams and bad investments from the thousands of worthless Alts. It kills the argument of ‘just invent another’ 

there will only ever be one bitcoin. 

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

19 hours ago, markyh said:

Hex sold off 60% yesterday too, goodbye to weak hands. 

19 hours ago, markyh said:

They come after all crypto founders, stab in the Dark.  None of these Crypto's fail the Howie test. 

It's not looking good for Heart at all.  Listen to Eric Wall on Twitter Spaces yesterday.  I'm not the biggest fan of "I broke bitcoin" but while he doesn't think Hex is a scam, he does believe it's over.

 

 

. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Buffer Bear