goldbug9999

There has to be a non trivial constant flow of new money into bitcoin to keep the price from continually falling due to mined supply increase. 1800 BTC/day currently - that around $7million / day.

Interesting, so whats your reasoning behind giving c the high probability rather than b ?.

Since this conversation seems to be going round in circles a bit how about a change of tack .. how about providing % guesses as to the probability of these three scenarios: Bitcoin becomes (and remains) a significant asset (lets say > $trillion cap) : 95% Bitcoin becomes a curiosity with negligible value long term (lets say unit price < $500) : 5% Bitcoin carries on with a value in the low $K value in the long term (say 10 years+): 0%

Just like they were in 2014 - 2017.

I should have clarified that I mean before the dec 18 crash. Anyone who bought after that knew what they were letting themselves in for.

I first heard about it in 2011, bought initially in 2013. The general pattern seems to be that people become aware of it during a bubble but assume its a fad, they then buy when the following bubble starts. So, again anecdotally, the most common time when people buy for the first times is the second time there is a "buzz" around it (that they are aware of)

If the guy had just buy and hold bitcoin he would still be left with over 100k from hs 20k investment. Pretty much every story in the media about people "losing money on bitcoin" features someone who would have made a tidy if unspectacular profit by just holding bitcoin but most of them started actively trading in the height of the bubble and thats when they got really burned. There is only about a 2 month window where it was possible to buy bitcoin and be in the red now.

Most people don't buy bitcoin when they first hear of it, admittedly that is somewhat anecdotal on my part but its based on everyone I've ever conversed with via any medium, including this thread, and all the interviews and articles by people in the space I have watched/read. Also most people who have some, have bought more at some point after the initial purchase (also using the same anecdotal data). Far from being saturated, I think we've barely got started. Bitcoin is still far to new and risky for the vast majority of potential investors and users. Only people who are in so far are some mix of a) irrationally risk averse b) tech savy early adopters c) libertarian idealists. One day bitcoin will be as common place as a store of value investment as gold, some day after than it will be preferable due to all its advantages over gold.

Its a stepping stone. The reason why SoV is the first use case with any appreciable take up (and will remain so for quite some time) is that it can happen incrementally over a long time span. Becoming a MoE has very non linear adoption curve with a very hard to determine tipping point. The stark contrast between the SoV and MoE adoption curves is the thing that no one really predicted in the early days but bitcoin and the market have adapted to it (although many early bitcoin proponents have not ...).

Well it seems like all the risks are to the downside so doesn't that answer your question ? - what have got to lose by hang on another 6 months ?

Had to be done

Its early days, to most of them its still some sort of "magic internet money", as a technically literate person its easy to underestimate how utterly alien the core ideas and mechanisms are to many people. This forum is great example of how resistant most people are, and the readers of this forum are probably in general more tech savvy and economically literate that average yet are still fairly resistant to the idea. To some extent I see it as a generational thing. Most of the conversations I have with nocoiners in their 30s 40s and upwards are usually around how can it possibly have no central point of control, how can something that exists purely on the internet have real world value, sure the government have some back door / wont allow it etc etc. For millennials though its just another step on the road to every part of their life involving something online, it doesn't even occur to them to ask those questions. Bitcoin is fundamentally a new and strange thing, and in a ecosystem (money/banking) that is extremely resistant to new and strange things. You simply don't go from zero to gold style globally trusted store of value in a mere 10 years.

Because bitcoin it is both virtual and a bearer instrument. You can memorise a 12 word key and carry a billion $ in your head which noone can detect or seize.

Of all the anti bitcoin/cypto arguments the "they wont let it happen" one is the most feeble and tiresome. And no I'm not going to waste brain power rebutting it again. It was worth talking about 5 years ago but now ... no, an invitation to search my posting history on this thread is as all your going to get.

Wanting HPI is far more evil and sociopathic than wanting the commodification of housing.