Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Well, usually I am stuck at work in front of spreadsheets but today I got out of the office for a day off - but what I noticed really concerned me. (1) Visited supermarket whose shelves were loaded with stuff that was past its best - a day or so before it was officially off - veg, fish - everything - on top of that noticed the meat was in a terrible state and biggest selling lines (mince) was not available. A large mainstream supermarket. (2) Went to one of my usual haunts - a very good restaurant - fixed price menu - 30/40 quid for a very good 3-course lunch. Only problem is I was the ONLY diner. They cook from fresh so had bought in loads of fish and meat - on questioning they said they had never known anything like it - very volatile with huge troughs. Might research both the above some more, for my bosses - but really alarming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 It is however blooming in the northeast. Work car park absolutely heaving with hundreds of shiny new cars. Steak restaurant doing great trade. Big queue at the vitaminD emporium too (Indigo Sun). 🌱 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted May 1 Author Share Posted May 1 (edited) This might explain the eating out bit... re spending cut backs... looks like restaurants and food retailers are in for a very hard time indeed: https://www.consultancy.uk/news/36242/uk-consumers-continue-to-cut-spending-for-2024 Edited May 1 by Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted May 1 Author Share Posted May 1 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Stewy said: It is however blooming in the northeast. Work car park absolutely heaving with hundreds of shiny new cars. Steak restaurant doing great trade. Big queue at the vitaminD emporium too (Indigo Sun). 🌱 It could indeed be regional @Stewy - are consumers less burdened by mortgage debt, etc. in the North East? Giving them more spending power. I suspect so. That said, wages are relatively low. This is quite interesting - showing spending cutbacks in terms of priority https://www.consultancy.uk/news/36242/uk-consumers-continue-to-cut-spending-for-2024 Edited May 1 by Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuts Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 I heard, can't quite remember where probably the radio, that car sales are suffering. The garage owner was saying that people are now buying cars out of "need" ... rather than "want". So not just changing cars because you fancy something different.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Just now, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said: It could indeed be regional @Stewy - are consumers less burdened by mortgage debt, etc. in the North East? Giving them more spending power. I suspect so. That said, wages are relatively low. This is quite interesting - showing spending cutbacks in terms or priority https://www.consultancy.uk/news/36242/uk-consumers-continue-to-cut-spending-for-2024 I spent Saturday night in a medium sized Northants town called Kettering. Wages aren't great. Every pub was heaving. I had trouble finding a table in any pub I went in. Before going out I went to a restaurant which was charging £6.50 for a 330ml can of IPA. Every seat taken by 6:30pm. My bill for a main with 1 side, 1 drink, and 1 dessert was £39. The nightclub I went to... packed out. I was really surprised as I thought Kettering would be dead. But it's not. Northampton is exactly the same on Saturday nights. The pub near me (I live in a well-to-do village) is a gentrified country pub - I can't park my car on Fri and Sat nights, nor Sun afternoon for how many people visit it. I even join them for 2 or 3 pints (at £5.60 per pint). However, I do think there are a growing demographic of people who are panic stricken and in serious financial distress. I think we're polarising. The well off are getting wealthier, and the poorest are getting poorer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 11 minutes ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said: It could indeed be regional @Stewy - are consumers less burdened by mortgage debt, etc. in the North East? Giving them more spending power. I suspect so. That said, wages are relatively low. This is quite interesting - showing spending cutbacks in terms of priority https://www.consultancy.uk/news/36242/uk-consumers-continue-to-cut-spending-for-2024 Less mortgage debt as our HPIs aren't ridiculous like they are in the south. We never even had a boom. Yet, anyway... Plus southern equity relocating up north to escape the overheating violence and climate down south... bringing a possible HPI boom to the north 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 8 minutes ago, Orb said: I spent Saturday night in a medium sized Northants town called Kettering. Wages aren't great. Every pub was heaving. I had trouble finding a table in any pub I went in. Before going out I went to a restaurant which was charging £6.50 for a 330ml can of IPA. Every seat taken by 6:30pm. My bill for a main with 1 side, 1 drink, and 1 dessert was £39. The nightclub I went to... packed out. I was really surprised as I thought Kettering would be dead. But it's not. Northampton is exactly the same on Saturday nights. The pub near me (I live in a well-to-do village) is a gentrified country pub - I can't park my car on Fri and Sat nights, nor Sun afternoon for how many people visit it. I even join them for 2 or 3 pints (at £5.60 per pint). However, I do think there are a growing demographic of people who are panic stricken and in serious financial distress. I think we're polarising. The well off are getting wealthier, and the poorest are getting poorer. I heard this about Brazil during lockdown people spending like crazy without a care in the world also borrowing to spend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 A colleague at work just had a house sale fall through because the buyer was made redundant. Apparently this was the fifth buyer to pull out after several months on the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 54 minutes ago, Orb said: Every pub was heaving. I had trouble finding a table in any pub I went in. Before going out I went to a restaurant which was charging £6.50 for a 330ml can of IPA. Every seat taken by 6:30pm. My bill for a main with 1 side, 1 drink, and 1 dessert was £39. The nightclub I went to... packed out. I was really surprised as I thought Kettering would be dead. But it's not. Northampton is exactly the same on Saturday nights. The pub near me (I live in a well-to-do village) is a gentrified country pub - I can't park my car on Fri and Sat nights, nor Sun afternoon for how many people visit it. I even join them for 2 or 3 pints (at £5.60 per pint). If a business like a pub or restaurant is busy on the weekends this doesn't necessarily mean they are doing well due to many factors like overheads and running costs. Also these places might be dead during the week so any money they make on the weekend may not always be enough show a decent profit. 49 minutes ago, Stewy said: Less mortgage debt as our HPIs aren't ridiculous like they are in the south. We never even had a boom. Yet, anyway... Plus southern equity relocating up north to escape the overheating violence and climate down south... bringing a possible HPI boom to the north 🤔 You forgot to mention Stockton On Tees as one of the highest unemployment rates in the UK and wages in general are a lot lower where you are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 13 minutes ago, fellow said: A colleague at work just had a house sale fall through because the buyer was made redundant. Apparently this was the fifth buyer to pull out after several months on the market. Alarming, but it likely wasn't 5 people in total with a genuine interest. A couple of those were likely the sort we used to see in the 80s who just fancied a day out looking around someone's house for ideas for their own property. If they can get a free tea and scone out of it, all the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 1 hour ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said: Went to one of my usual haunts - a very good restaurant - fixed price menu - 30/40 quid for a very good 3-course lunch. Only problem is I was the ONLY diner. 1 hour ago, Orb said: I spent Saturday night in a medium sized Northants town called Kettering. Wages aren't great. Every pub was heaving. I would have thought that middle class people will cut the casual expensive Thursday lunch out before the young will cut their Saturday night out. I always think of expenditure like the "Swingometer" from election time - you know, where a 1% swing means the Conservatives lose seats A & B, 2% and they lose X & Y as well etc etc As you go under financial pressure the swingometer gradually swings across all the things you spend money on - what goes first? Maybe the two holidays becomes one, the one becomes a cheaper one, the Weetabix becomes Tesco own brand wheat biscuits etc etc Cost of living pressure is not like losing your job - you don't suddenly go from people spending a fortune on everything to spending nothing at all - instead it gradually swings across cutting things out, and they are different things for everyone. So maybe @Stewy and @Orb are right that plenty of people are out spending money - but what you don't see is what the swingometer HAS caused them to cut back on....maybe that car has been stretched a few more years, that 2 week holiday has become 1 week etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 @scottbeard I must admit, I'm now buying own brand Bourbon biscuits rather than McVities. Reason? They're a bit cheaper. Same with beans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
locky82 Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 tidied the garden and did a couple of tip runs today. In a terrace but have side access and bumped into neighbour that lives on the adjacent road, only ever see him when doing this! We spoke about family/life as we always do and then I mentioned that I’m working nights this week. His reply, it’s good to have a job at the moment, he’s a pensioner and the cost of living crisis has depleted his savings. But it was the way he said it as well, with genuine concern. I’m in quite an affluent area where I’d have expected most are shielded from cost of living crisis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 2 hours ago, locky82 said: tidied the garden and did a couple of tip runs today. In a terrace but have side access and bumped into neighbour that lives on the adjacent road, only ever see him when doing this! We spoke about family/life as we always do and then I mentioned that I’m working nights this week. His reply, it’s good to have a job at the moment, he’s a pensioner and the cost of living crisis has depleted his savings. But it was the way he said it as well, with genuine concern. I’m in quite an affluent area where I’d have expected most are shielded from cost of living crisis. You must have found the sole poor pensioner out there.. congratulations. Most retirement towns are absolutely blooming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpg50000 Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 (edited) 4 hours ago, Stewy said: You must have found the sole poor pensioner out there.. congratulations. Most retirement towns are absolutely blooming. Sure they are. A bit like the post count from the troll factory.... Edited May 2 by dpg50000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Angry Capitalist Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 I will give my two cents as I work as a food delivery driver for a restaurant and a takeaway. I fully expected the previous 12 months to have been a lot slower than 2022 & 2021. However, it's actually gotten busier at both places despite them raising prices 3 times in the last 12 months. Having spoken with the owners though I asked them if customers have been ordering less such as no appetizers and just a main and side etc. Both claim order totals are less such as the average order being £25 instead of £35 etc. Therefore, demand has slightly decreased from the inflation. Obviously, to create more demand you lower prices. Raising prices lowers demand so from my experience things are playing out to economics 101. The owners also tell me they are going to be raising their prices again soon as everything is still going up. The only thing that has come down in price slightly is cooking oil which seems to have peaked around £33 a drum down to around £27, I think. Bottom line: If these price rises continue in the restaurant/food industry we will see people going out once a month instead of 2 or 3 times etc. They will also spend less when they do. How McDonald's and KFC are still doing okay is beyond me. The reason you go to those places is because they are cheap. It's certainly not the quality. Worth keeping an eye on their share prices going forward because I think if this continues demand is going to plummet. I ordered a 3 piece colonels meal about 6 months ago and specified a large fries along with a gravy on the side. That was £11.50 (I think) and the chicken pieces were tiny to the point it was absurd. I could also count the amount of fries in the bag which was literally about 10 individual french fries despite me ordering a large portion. I actually went to the drive thru again after my meal because I was still hungry and ordered another large fries and was also intrigued to see what the portion size would be to check if my previous order was a mistake. Nope. Around 10 french fries in the bag so nearly £4 for 20 individual pieces of small sliced potato. That's me done with KFC. Don't like that kind of devious tactics. Just charge what you need to charge and serve proper portions. These tricks are not in the inflation numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Angry Capitalist Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 11 hours ago, nuts said: I heard, can't quite remember where probably the radio, that car sales are suffering. The garage owner was saying that people are now buying cars out of "need" ... rather than "want". So not just changing cars because you fancy something different.... Yep. I fully expect people to own their cars for longer periods now instead of changing every 2 years etc. That will hurt car dealers especially used car sellers. There seems to be a lot of them around too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brendan110_0 Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 12 hours ago, Orb said: I spent Saturday night in a medium sized Northants town called Kettering. Wages aren't great. Every pub was heaving. I had trouble finding a table in any pub I went in. Before going out I went to a restaurant which was charging £6.50 for a 330ml can of IPA. Every seat taken by 6:30pm. My bill for a main with 1 side, 1 drink, and 1 dessert was £39. The nightclub I went to... packed out. I was really surprised as I thought Kettering would be dead. But it's not. Northampton is exactly the same on Saturday nights. The pub near me (I live in a well-to-do village) is a gentrified country pub - I can't park my car on Fri and Sat nights, nor Sun afternoon for how many people visit it. I even join them for 2 or 3 pints (at £5.60 per pint). However, I do think there are a growing demographic of people who are panic stricken and in serious financial distress. I think we're polarising. The well off are getting wealthier, and the poorest are getting poorer. Pubs do get busier as many others have closed forever. Restaurants will be similar in a few years, waiting lists for birthdays/family get togethers charging a fortune for average food as they're the only gig in town. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Locke Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 eBay and Etsy forums are saying business has dried up suddenly. AMD revenue is down 45%! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 Single person.......if have no home to pay for, do have CT,water, gas and or elec, WiFi broadband, food, how much does a person need per month to live on? With and without a paid for car and associated costs? Two people with same, would be better for both, or wouldn't need so much as share of CT, water gas/electric, broadband and car costs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 1 minute ago, winkie said: Single person.......if have no home to pay for, do have CT,water, gas and or elec, WiFi broadband, food, how much does a person need per month to live on? With and without a paid for car and associated costs? Two people with same, would be better for both, or wouldn't need so much as share of CT, water gas/electric, broadband and car costs. Living is really quite cheap if you have no rent or commute...perhaps £500/month would do it, maybe less if you foraged and brewed your own booze... ✓✓✓ With a little bit of savings, just the interest might be enough 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 17 minutes ago, Stewy said: Living is really quite cheap if you have no rent or commute...perhaps £500/month would do it, maybe less if you foraged and brewed your own booze... ✓✓✓ With a little bit of savings, just the interest might be enough 🙂 Yes living out of trailer..... people do live on that amount, might not pay the bills but wouldn't starve, pop to the swimming baths for a shower....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotblack42 Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 (edited) 2 hours ago, The Angry Capitalist said: I fully expect people to own their cars for longer periods now instead of changing every 2 years etc. I find this so weird - buy a quality vehicle with a decent spec. and keep it! Most recent cars: 1998 Fiat Ulysse 1999-2008 brilliant, luxurious family car. Bulletproof. 2001 SLK230 2007-2014 had to fix rust issues but ended up with a real looker, arrow straight at triple digits for £12K total spend that was £30K new. I'd love a Mk2 facelift but RFL changes have ruined the running costs. Or rather I am a tight git prepared to deny myself things that would please me subjectively based on cold analysis😁 2004 D4D RAV4 2008-2022. 2 expensive repairs, one under warranty, otherwise a serene, comfortable drive. 2009 Swift 1.5 2014-2023 well built, fun revvy engine. 2019 1.8 Corolla hybrid - 2022 on. May swap for 2.0 estate or the new Prius at some point, but only if the dealer is fighting to disguise their deperation. Probably die of old age during that ownership😄 We could afford a premium SUV or GT, but that's not good use of capital is it? Also have supersport bike and can't afford a 30-80 in 4sec. car to replace the rush.. Buying low spec. or 'premium' cars that will age badly and depreciate quickly is financial madness and give an inferior driving experience. What the neighbours think is neither here or there. Our approach does of course rely on new buyers who do care about displaying the new plate.. Re topic - yes, its polarisation, no surprise there. The haves can go out and spend on meals and drink that are a drop in the bucket compared to their wealth and income. The have nots have knowledge and skills that are being devalued by globalisation and tech advances (not just AI) or have borrowed catastrophically. The have nots are essentially working for the haves and there is no real prospect of that changing. Its vital to take this on board. Edited May 2 by hotblack42 emphasis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 2 hours ago, The Angry Capitalist said: I fully expect people to own their cars for longer periods now instead of changing every 2 years etc. That will hurt car dealers especially used car sellers. There seems to be a lot of them around too. Do people genuinely change cars so often? I bought my first car in 2002 and am still on my third car with no intention of changing it … so basically that’s at least 7-8 years per car on average Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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