UK job market doing poorly

[winkie]

1 minute ago, spyguy said:

Weve prob had the largest IR move in recent memory - going from ~1% to 5.25%

4x increase.

Youd expect to see far far economic damage.

The days of hammering the economy down via IR rates i..e mortgage payments appears to be over.

Only way GoE can get inflation/demand down is remove indexation from bennies n pensions. Or reduce bennies.

USGOV shows this - raising IRs yet splurting cash via IRA.

Bit like trying to run up an escaltor.

The money has to be spread fairly between the workers, retired, disabled and sick.....lots benefit from the handouts and bailouts.......many work very hard unpaid for example carers and charity workers.....more productive than some that are employed.

[70PC]

There is also the matter of employment 74.5%.  25.5% of working age people not in employment is a higher than 4.2%

"The UK employment rate for December 2023 to February 2024 (74.5%) remains below estimates a year ago (December 2022 to February 2023), and decreased in the latest quarter."

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/april2024

4 hours ago, henry the king said:

Unemployment up to 4.2%. Pay still rising way faster than it should be. Job postings extremely low.

It is tough out there

 

 

[hotblack42]

Generalisations help understand the big picture & obviously on here many people are looking to see if a weak jobs market will undermine house prices.

Putting house prices aside, a time of job cuts is an opportunity for individuals to swim against the tide, doing work that others find distasteful or boring.  Having a lot of disposable when most are belt tightening can be pretty awesome.

Cold analysis, open mindedness, mobility & not giving a chuff what others think about how you make money are your friends in difficult times.

The only lines I drew over the years were working for fagbandits or in oppressive regimes.

[coypondboy]

Public sector debt will continue to spiral as may in public sector taking pensions at 55 and then working via agency and earning double the rate for doing the same job. Happy days and if they live to 110 will have had a pension for as along as they weren't getting one.  The outlook is bleak and with labour likely to be in for next 10 yrs will only get worse unless run on the pound and they are forced to do something to avoid an IMF bailout just ask Argentina how that is going.

[NoHPCinTheUK]

I have been saying this for ages now: 

 

middle-class folks on PAYE are now being screwed on both ends of their payslips. Our gross salary is taxed to pay for god only knows what, with our net we either pay a landlord or a mortgage to a bank for an overpriced 70yo house. ANd then the bills, and food and the services. These pay raises are going directly into servicing mortgages, paying rents and bills. 

You never win. 

[spyguy]

6 minutes ago, coypondboy said:

Public sector debt will continue to spiral as may in public sector taking pensions at 55 and then working via agency and earning double the rate for doing the same job. Happy days and if they live to 110 will have had a pension for as along as they weren't getting one.  The outlook is bleak and with labour likely to be in for next 10 yrs will only get worse unless run on the pound and they are forced to do something to avoid an IMF bailout just ask Argentina how that is going.

One thing that has changed has been toal panic at the various public sector pension bodies.

Theyve moved to seriously hammer the discount if you retire before SRA and draw the pension.

Theres no more retiring at 52 on a full pension.

Teacher pension scheme appears to be in total panic, pushing for 40% cotribs.

 

 

 

[Dreamcasting]

2 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

I have been saying this for ages now: 

 

middle-class folks on PAYE are now being screwed on both ends of their payslips. Our gross salary is taxed to pay for god only knows what, with our net we either pay a landlord or a mortgage to a bank for an overpriced 70yo house. ANd then the bills, and food and the services. These pay raises are going directly into servicing mortgages, paying rents and bills. 

You never win. 

Outcome? More people driving around with no insurance on cloned plates. People connecting their homes electricals to the other side of the meter. An increase in burglaries. Oh what fun to look forward to.

[NoHPCinTheUK]

1 minute ago, Dreamcasting said:

Outcome? More people driving around with no insurance on cloned plates. People connecting their homes electricals to the other side of the meter. An increase in burglaries. Oh what fun to look forward to.

The other outcome will be rents simply not being paid. 

[Hullabaloo82]

Unemployment is still pretty close to record lows. It was still above 5% as recently as 2015. I don't think there's any need to panic yet and wages still ticking up seems to indicate that it's crap, low paying jobs going (guessing a combination of outsourcing and automation or interest rates killing crap retail chains) rather than better roles, which is what we're meant to be aiming for in the first place. 

I think the contrast in things like tech or other white collar roles is more due to the fact that the last 2 years have been crazy whereas a lot of employers have now frozen rather than making wholesale redundancies. People still in these jobs are still seeing pay go up. I think it's caution rather than panic at the moment and you may just as well see things open up a bit later in the year particularly if we can stave off Israel escalating things with Iran and inflation retreats again. 

(Appreciate this goes against the HPC grain of "we're all doomed!" but there it is). 

[Sackboii]

20 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

More people driving around with no insurance on cloned plates

That's been evolving for years, a decade or more even. What's the point in paying £1,000's on insurance when, if you get caught, the fine is £300.

[scottbeard]

30 minutes ago, coypondboy said:

Public sector debt will continue to spiral as may in public sector taking pensions at 55 and then working via agency and earning double the rate for doing the same job. Happy days and if they live to 110 will have had a pension for as along as they weren't getting one.  The outlook is bleak and with labour likely to be in for next 10 yrs will only get worse unless run on the pound and they are forced to do something to avoid an IMF bailout just ask Argentina how that is going.

Assume that's a typo for "many" and I don't think it's at all common any more.  Not so many have pensions that will stretch to State Pension Age at 66, and early retirement reductions are bigger than they once were.

In addition, almost no-one lives to 110 so that's a pretty false comparison.  An average retiree at 55 - assuming they didnt retire due to ill health etc - might live to their late 80s.

[Sackboii]

2 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

An average retiree at 55 - assuming they didnt retire due to ill health etc - might live to their late 80s.

89 is my life expectancy according to many calculators I have found. It's 89 I am using in all my retirement planning.

[Will!]

46 minutes ago, coypondboy said:

Public sector debt will continue to spiral as may in public sector taking pensions at 55 and then working via agency and earning double the rate for doing the same job. Happy days and if they live to 110 will have had a pension for as along as they weren't getting one.  The outlook is bleak and with labour likely to be in for next 10 yrs will only get worse unless run on the pound and they are forced to do something to avoid an IMF bailout just ask Argentina how that is going.

I don't know if many in the public sector are doing this in terms of numbers of retirees, but it's certainly significant in terms of amount of spending per head.  I know quite a few senior doctors retiring in their mid-fifties because their annual defined benefit pension has his the higher rate threshold even with the maximum tax free lump sum of £268,275.  These people are probably going to get out quite a bit more than they paid in.

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Weve prob had the largest IR move in recent memory - going from ~1% to 5.25%

4x increase.

Youd expect to see far far economic damage.

The days of hammering the economy down via IR rates i..e mortgage payments appears to be over.

Only way GoE can get inflation/demand down is remove indexation from bennies n pensions. Or reduce bennies.

 

 

39 minutes ago, spyguy said:

One thing that has changed has been toal panic at the various public sector pension bodies.

Theyve moved to seriously hammer the discount if you retire before SRA and draw the pension.

Unfortunately for me, I think you're right.

Edited April 16 by Will!

[winkie]

53 minutes ago, 70PC said:

There is also the matter of employment 74.5%.  25.5% of working age people not in employment is a higher than 4.2%

 

Quarter of the working age population 18 to 66 are not working, not all of those that are working are working full-time..... herein lies the problem of dependence from the state or dependent on others, their work or asset growth that is fast being spent..

[scottbeard]

6 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

89 is my life expectancy according to many calculators I have found. It's 89 I am using in all my retirement planning.

Probably reasonable if you are in normal health, reasonably well off and aged about 30-60.

The main thing to remember is the extreme variability around that, and planning for what happens to your family etc if you were to die in your 60s or 70s, and what would happen to YOU if you lived well into your 90s.

Just now, Will! said:

I know quite a few senior doctors retiring in their mid-fifties because their annual defined benefit pension has his the higher rate threshold even with the maximum tax free lump sum of £268,275.  These people are probably going to get out quite a bit more than they paid in.

Yes senior doctors are the sort who might be able to afford to retire early.  The average council worker not so much.

To be clear you'd expect EVERYONE on average to get a lot more than they paid in themselves because council pension schemes, like most pension schemes, are mostly paid for by the employer not the employee.

[Sackboii]

14 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

The main thing to remember is the extreme variability around that, and planning for what happens to your family etc if you were to die in your 60s or 70s, and what would happen to YOU if you lived well into your 90s.

Yes. Given that my current and projected expenditure allows me to retire 4 years ago even if I live until 89 whilst remaining invested in low risk funds, without ever running out of money (in fact current what if's are largely an accelerating fund value post state pension anyway) I think I'll be ok.

Meanwhile, I am still working, making hay whilst the sun shines, enjoying some of it, but wishing I had more free time. So I know the writing is on the wall, soon.

I had always said that at the stroke of midnight as I turned 55 that would be it. But now we are aiming to move one last time, I'll keep the not insignificant salary and maxed-out pension contributions going until after the move and associated final cost analysis (which by current planning won't really change anything anyway..). So if we move by Autumn (as is the plan) I might work until the end of 24-25 tax year. By which time I will be 56 in a half 😉.

We'll see. All good fun. I love maxing out the pension contribs now as I know it's going to come out almost exclusively tax-free until age of 67 anyway. ✔️

Edited April 16 by Sackboii
clarity

[Will!]

12 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

To be clear you'd expect EVERYONE on average to get a lot more than they paid in themselves because council pension schemes, like most pension schemes, are mostly paid for by the employer not the employee.

Fair point.  I should have said get a lot more than the employee + employer contribution, because both were low for a long time and are now going up and up, just as these people are retiring!

[Dreamcasting]

29 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

Unemployment is still pretty close to record lows. It was still above 5% as recently as 2015. I don't think there's any need to panic yet and wages still ticking up seems to indicate that it's crap, low paying jobs going (guessing a combination of outsourcing and automation or interest rates killing crap retail chains) rather than better roles, which is what we're meant to be aiming for in the first place. 

I think the contrast in things like tech or other white collar roles is more due to the fact that the last 2 years have been crazy whereas a lot of employers have now frozen rather than making wholesale redundancies. People still in these jobs are still seeing pay go up. I think it's caution rather than panic at the moment and you may just as well see things open up a bit later in the year particularly if we can stave off Israel escalating things with Iran and inflation retreats again. 

(Appreciate this goes against the HPC grain of "we're all doomed!" but there it is). 

Regardless of the role, it's all about productivity, efficiency and value for money. The sad fact of the matter is that many jobs performed by people in the UK are not valuable nor necessary. Once we've taken out a rather small percentage of those actually providing essential services, you're left with a barren wasteland. If people are to be paid more, they better actually be doing something that is useful and valuable in contrast to rocking on a chair complaining about being bored and miserable.

If the UK is serious about sorting the jobs market and wider economy, they can start by laying off the vast majority of lazy entitled public sector workers and help them move into productive private sector roles that will actually benefit the country. Just what those roles are though is a 64 thousand dollar question.

[Sackboii]

1 minute ago, Dreamcasting said:

they can start by laying off the vast majority of lazy entitled public sector workers

They can lay off the masses of layabouts on bennies they're working for too.

[Dreamcasting]

Just now, Sackboii said:

They can lay off the masses of layabouts on bennies they're working for too.

Indeed. So far, i'm seeing nothing being put forward that is going to sort the root of the problems the UK is experiencing right now. An incoming public-sector loving Labour government is likely to make things far worse imo. It'll get to the point where they might as well just pay every public sector worker a wage each month and tell them not to bother turning up for "work" at all.

[Sackboii]

26 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

An incoming public-sector loving Labour government is likely to make things far worse imo

Indeed, hence my view here.

[henry the king]

7 hours ago, mynamehere said:

Is there evidence of this white collar recession in today’s data. Havn’t looked too closely but looks on the surface there was a big increase in students and sickness but also rise in edges of those who are still employed. 
 

for house prices the question  is what’s happening to the wages of typical house buyers?
 

 

The Reed data is more informative than the data today really. And more timely. 

Job vacancies are at the lowest level for a long time when you exclude the covid dip which was artificial. YoY we are 45% down in IT vacancies at the top end. More typical is accountancy vacancies down 21% YoY. 2023 was already down from 2018/2019/2022 too. 

So it really isn't good.

I don't think this data has an immediate impact on house prices at all though. Wages are still rising quickly. 

[Stewy]

17 minutes ago, henry the king said:

 

I don't think this data has an immediate impact on house prices at all though. 

Not with immigration in 7 figures ✓

[TheChangeIsCast]

5 hours ago, spyguy said:

Weve prob had the largest IR move in recent memory - going from ~1% to 5.25%

4x increase.

Youd expect to see far far economic damage.

The days of hammering the economy down via IR rates i..e mortgage payments appears to be over.

Only way GoE can get inflation/demand down is remove indexation from bennies n pensions. Or reduce bennies.

USGOV shows this - raising IRs yet splurting cash via IRA.

Bit like trying to run up an escaltor.

 

 

 

 

 

Don't interest rates take around 18 months to feed through into the rest of the economy fully though? I could be wrong, but I'm sure I read something like that recently, meaning that what you see happening now is a result of interest rates 18 months ago, which were 2.25% I think at that point. On that basis, and if that's correct, it will be another 12 months yet before the full brunt of 5.5% is felt everywhere.

[Stewy]

3 minutes ago, TheChangeIsCast said:

Don't interest rates take around 18 months to feed through into the rest of the economy fully though? I could be wrong, but I'm sure I read something like that recently, meaning that what you see happening now is a result of interest rates 18 months ago, which were 2.25% I think at that point. On that basis, and if that's correct, it will be another 12 months yet before the full brunt of 5.5% is felt everywhere.

That's why we should have been cutting in 2023 🤔