S&P 500 closes above 5000 for first time

[VancouverGuy]

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[wighty]

40 minutes ago, VancouverGuy said:

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Very nice.

Unfortunately doesn't fit the doom narrative so doesn't count.

[BaldED]

Put 90% of the pension into SP500 and other NA stocks in November.

Tech stocks namely chips are going mental. ARM was up 50% on one day this week.

[reddog]

The thing is, it obviously seems dumb to invest in the S&P500 that has gone up that much, until..... You start looking at other stock markets.

[Stewy]

I'm a contrarian.

Sell. 👍

[VancouverGuy]

So she closed safely past the line at 5,026.91. The signs are for more good growth to come, corporate profits are strong, the soft landing is happening, no spike in unemployment.

Inflation continuing to fall, and ultimately interest rates, should boost asset values nicely over the next few years.

Never bet against America.

[Tony_Teacake]

1 hour ago, VancouverGuy said:

So she closed safely past the line at 5,026.91. The signs are for more good growth to come, corporate profits are strong, the soft landing is happening, no spike in unemployment.

Inflation continuing to fall, and ultimately interest rates, should boost asset values nicely over the next few years.

Never bet against America.

You are obviously reading the headlines without looking under the bonnet. It was publicised last week that the S&P highs are being skewed by the tech giants. 

[DownwardSlopingPlateau]

3 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said:

You are obviously reading the headlines without looking under the bonnet. It was publicised last week that the S&P highs are being skewed by the tech giants. 

There is an argument for sticking with the market’s biggest companies, which often have above-average growth and strong balance sheets. Since 1999, the top 10 companies by weight in the S&P 500 have returned an average of 12.3 percentage points more than the broader index, data from Dow Jones Indices showed.

 

At the same time, some strategists believe a longer-term look shows that more stocks actually have participated in the rally. More than half of the 100-plus sub-industries in the S&P 500 are up by 20% or more since the current bull market began in October 2022, analysts Yardeni Research wrote. Technology and communications services are the only ones to have outperformed the broader index, however.

"A few stocks have greatly outperformed the laggards, but many of the laggards likewise have done very well—just not as well," the firm wrote.

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-st-week-ahead-market-breadth-suggests-narrowing-rally-sp-500-hits-records-2024-02-09/

 

[cdd]

7 hours ago, VancouverGuy said:

So she closed safely past the line at 5,026.91. The signs are for more good growth to come, corporate profits are strong, the soft landing is happening, no spike in unemployment.

Inflation continuing to fall, and ultimately interest rates, should boost asset values nicely over the next few years.

Never bet against America.

I'm staying well out of it. I don't trust the situation.

[Frankie Teardrop]

Theres a lot of euphoria around the AI stocks. ARM joining in with Nvidias run. Not convinced its primetime for AI yet. Its reminiscent of the dot com imho. How long it will run for I have no idea but I wouldnt bet against it in an election year.

'Be greedy when others are fearful and vice versa'
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

[Will!]

VUSA!  VUSA!  VUSA!

[VancouverGuy]

42 minutes ago, Will! said:

VUSA!  VUSA!  VUSA!

Yeah - that's the cheapest I could find too (for my UK-domiciled assets).

[BaldED]

4 hours ago, cdd said:

I'm staying well out of it. I don't trust the situation.

 

12 hours ago, VancouverGuy said:

So she closed safely past the line at 5,026.91. The signs are for more good growth to come, corporate profits are strong, the soft landing is happening, no spike in unemployment.

Inflation continuing to fall, and ultimately interest rates, should boost asset values nicely over the next few years.

Never bet against America.

I don't trust them either. But I don't want to be sitting on fiat when they decide that they are going to start printing again. $33tn debt is going nowhere. Lets face it, if their is a collapse then its going to be the mother of all collapses and i'm not going to be worried about the numbers in my pension. In you loose, out you loose. Way I see it you don't have any choice but to be in. 

[Data Dave]

The market has ripped!!

On 10/02/2024 at 08:17, VancouverGuy said:

So she closed safely past the line at 5,026.91. The signs are for more good growth to come, corporate profits are strong, the soft landing is happening, no spike in unemployment.

Inflation continuing to fall, and ultimately interest rates, should boost asset values nicely over the next few years.

Never bet against America.

Well with a shaky hand I’d probably have to agree, earnings went ok. 
 

On 09/02/2024 at 23:00, BaldED said:

Put 90% of the pension into SP500 and other NA stocks in November.

Tech stocks namely chips are going mental. ARM was up 50% on one day this week.

I think a holding of your pension in a passive index linked low cost tracker is the good idea. So does Buffet! 
 

Then do you keep some cash for a long short equities tactical book finding index outperformance in individual names? In other words do you buy stocks too 😂

[Dames]

19 hours ago, Will! said:

VUSA!  VUSA!  VUSA!

Can't make my mind up between VUAG or VWRP

VUAG  0.07% (Acc version of VUSA )

VWRP  0.22% ( Acc )

I want the S&P which I get in the latter but with only about 4% exposure to UK , which I'm happy with.

Current fund AJ Bell Growth Global , is pretty much the reverse. But as they're my broker there are no dealing charges on their funds. Other fees higher tho , hence I'm looking to switch.

Trouble is currently S&P looks quite toasty , so may just start small mthly , then add larger shld we get a pull back.

Decisions 🤷

[jiltedjen]

Historically it swings between American outperformance to rest of world out performance 

think plenty are suffering from a recency bias ploughing money into the US market.

yeah sure momentum trading can also work, but depends where we are in that cycle - no-one really knows.

hearing lots of stories of people who should be de-risking their pensions/portfolios deciding to stay 100% in stocks, exposing themselves to potential large losses without time to re-coup. 

my view is holding shares in profitable companies which pay a dividend tend to recover more quickly from crashes. tech stocks which don’t generate enough profit to justify stock prices don’t seem like a long term smart move. 

 

[dances with sheeple]

17 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

Historically it swings between American outperformance to rest of world out performance 

think plenty are suffering from a recency bias ploughing money into the US market.

yeah sure momentum trading can also work, but depends where we are in that cycle - no-one really knows.

hearing lots of stories of people who should be de-risking their pensions/portfolios deciding to stay 100% in stocks, exposing themselves to potential large losses without time to re-coup. 

my view is holding shares in profitable companies which pay a dividend tend to recover more quickly from crashes. tech stocks which don’t generate enough profit to justify stock prices don’t seem like a long term smart move. 

 

Anybody got any views on this?

 

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-ftse-all-world-high-dividend-yield-ucits-etf-usd-distributing/portfolio-data

[jiltedjen]

1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

Anybody got any views on this?

 

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/vanguard-ftse-all-world-high-dividend-yield-ucits-etf-usd-distributing/portfolio-data

not financial advise 

0.29% ongoing fees although it doesn’t sound like that much, if average yield is something like 4% then 0.29% fee is a fair chunk of yield/profit handed to fund managers.

if you have enough money you can buy individual stocks and diversify yourself without paying the fee. And you can still mirror what’s in the fund anyway (meaning effectively 0.29% boost in your return compared to the fund)

equally if you avoid the absolute dogs of shares it’s fairly easy to beat the 4% return and do better on your own.

HOWEVER it’s more complicated than that, as human factors are in play also, equally there is nothing to say that your own personal portfolio build up (minus what you think are dogs) will do better or worse than the vanguard fund. 

equally it’s expensive buying allocations in hundreds of companies at reasonable amounts (to neuter trading fees).

There are plenty of shares which pay dividends, which themselves are tied to bubble industries etc.

but proving you invest in ‘dividend kings’ or ‘dividend aristocrats’ you should be fairly safe. 

plus who’s to say tech stocks don’t carry on for the next 10 years? who’s to say the peak is in? 
 

for me I have over 40 years ahead of me to invest £500-£1500 in my S&S ISA each month, so building a massive fund of hundreds of shares is viable, and I have time for dividends to compound into a huge money feedback loop.

they say the first £100k is 25% the way to your first mil due to the nature of compounding. 

if your say 50 and can only invest less each month, then the fees may not be a huge deal, and it’s worth the ‘cost of diversification’

depending where you are in life also depends on how much risk you should be taking on, how many business cycles do you have to go through?

personally I want a decent dividend paying base, then use the dividends as eventual ‘free money’ to then buy ‘free bets’ on riskier shares.

plus dividends can help you maintain periods outside of work without having to sell down positions.

personally I see dividends as ‘buying a wage’ or ‘buying a rise’, and each purchase in enough time will become ‘free’ as it eventually pays me back.

i look at average income per month it buys me, and what it eventually will mean through compounding.

i have the state retirement age firmly in my head of 75 for me (in many decades to come) so i see the income I’m buying as giving me the ability to retire early without having to rely on either my state pension or even my private pension (which itself I probably can’t access until 65).

by owning companies that make profits your not beholden to governments that much, who for sure will do all they can to keep even your own private pension out of reach to keep you working and paying taxes.

S&S ISA paying dividends is the only way to buy quality healthy years without having to work for the average man.

plus dividend paying shares will become mighty expensive in say 20 years time when the reality of working until you die at your desk breaks through peoples minds. thus the yields now are much more attractive than they will be in the future.

 

[Dames]

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

Posted without comment…

 

 

[Will!]

6 hours ago, Dames said:

Can't make my mind up between VUAG or VWRP

VUAG  0.07% (Acc version of VUSA )

VWRP  0.22% ( Acc )

I want the S&P which I get in the latter but with only about 4% exposure to UK , which I'm happy with.

Current fund AJ Bell Growth Global , is pretty much the reverse. But as they're my broker there are no dealing charges on their funds. Other fees higher tho , hence I'm looking to switch.

Trouble is currently S&P looks quite toasty , so may just start small mthly , then add larger shld we get a pull back.

Decisions 🤷

@wish I could afford one had a complicated mechanical rebalancing strategy involving multiple tracker funds spanning the globe.  I figured that QE was a tide with which all boats would rise and fall so I just put it all in Vanguard's S&P500 tracker.  I started a bit later than he did and when he last posted an update I was further ahead.

KISS. 

[wighty]

13 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Posted without comment…

 

 

Yeah but bitcoin is going to zero innit.

So we were told.

 

[wighty]

14 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

not financial advise 

0.29% ongoing fees although it doesn’t sound like that much, if average yield is something like 4% then 0.29% fee is a fair chunk of yield/profit handed to fund managers.

if you have enough money you can buy individual stocks and diversify yourself without paying the fee. And you can still mirror what’s in the fund anyway (meaning effectively 0.29% boost in your return compared to the fund)

equally if you avoid the absolute dogs of shares it’s fairly easy to beat the 4% return and do better on your own.

HOWEVER it’s more complicated than that, as human factors are in play also, equally there is nothing to say that your own personal portfolio build up (minus what you think are dogs) will do better or worse than the vanguard fund. 

equally it’s expensive buying allocations in hundreds of companies at reasonable amounts (to neuter trading fees).

There are plenty of shares which pay dividends, which themselves are tied to bubble industries etc.

but proving you invest in ‘dividend kings’ or ‘dividend aristocrats’ you should be fairly safe. 

plus who’s to say tech stocks don’t carry on for the next 10 years? who’s to say the peak is in? 
 

for me I have over 40 years ahead of me to invest £500-£1500 in my S&S ISA each month, so building a massive fund of hundreds of shares is viable, and I have time for dividends to compound into a huge money feedback loop.

they say the first £100k is 25% the way to your first mil due to the nature of compounding. 

if your say 50 and can only invest less each month, then the fees may not be a huge deal, and it’s worth the ‘cost of diversification’

depending where you are in life also depends on how much risk you should be taking on, how many business cycles do you have to go through?

personally I want a decent dividend paying base, then use the dividends as eventual ‘free money’ to then buy ‘free bets’ on riskier shares.

plus dividends can help you maintain periods outside of work without having to sell down positions.

personally I see dividends as ‘buying a wage’ or ‘buying a rise’, and each purchase in enough time will become ‘free’ as it eventually pays me back.

i look at average income per month it buys me, and what it eventually will mean through compounding.

i have the state retirement age firmly in my head of 75 for me (in many decades to come) so i see the income I’m buying as giving me the ability to retire early without having to rely on either my state pension or even my private pension (which itself I probably can’t access until 65).

by owning companies that make profits your not beholden to governments that much, who for sure will do all they can to keep even your own private pension out of reach to keep you working and paying taxes.

S&S ISA paying dividends is the only way to buy quality healthy years without having to work for the average man.

plus dividend paying shares will become mighty expensive in say 20 years time when the reality of working until you die at your desk breaks through peoples minds. thus the yields now are much more attractive than they will be in the future.

 

You prefer an ISA to a pension?.

Best of luck managing a DIY tracker.

[jiltedjen]

3 hours ago, wighty said:

You prefer an ISA to a pension?.

Best of luck managing a DIY tracker.

I still have a private pension, but for me I can’t claim it until very late, probably 65+

rather be able to stop working early by purchasing an income which also feeds into retirement also.

i suspect there will be too few people actually retiring early (and becoming a net burden instead of net contributor) to be targeted to be forced to stay in work.

im contributing as much as I can to private pension which actually benefits me via salary sacrifice and company matches, but doesn’t make sense to do more than that, and instead funnel it into a S&S ISA.

in theory with inheritances etc I could retire around maybe around age 47 but rather not count chicken before hatched. 

Without inheritances I could probably break free around 55ish, but that’s till beats working until 70 something.

Personally I don’t really fancy working my whole life for others, then dropping dead to suit everyone else, just to keep the rich rich. 

[zugzwang]

On 12/02/2024 at 12:42, jiltedjen said:

I still have a private pension, but for me I can’t claim it until very late, probably 65+

rather be able to stop working early by purchasing an income which also feeds into retirement also.

i suspect there will be too few people actually retiring early (and becoming a net burden instead of net contributor) to be targeted to be forced to stay in work.

im contributing as much as I can to private pension which actually benefits me via salary sacrifice and company matches, but doesn’t make sense to do more than that, and instead funnel it into a S&S ISA.

in theory with inheritances etc I could retire around maybe around age 47 but rather not count chicken before hatched. 

Without inheritances I could probably break free around 55ish, but that’s till beats working until 70 something.

Personally I don’t really fancy working my whole life for others, then dropping dead to suit everyone else, just to keep the rich rich. 

 

Spoilsport.