sell2rent Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 I am trying to think the safest way to protect against an increasingly likely crash. Even if it starts in tech stocks or something unexpected, it will likely contaminate the rest and GBP. I think GBP will do worse than USD and gold. In the GFC I did well by being in cash but was too heavily in GBP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 4 minutes ago, sell2rent said: I am trying to think the safest way to protect against an increasingly likely crash. Even if it starts in tech stocks or something unexpected, it will likely contaminate the rest and GBP. I think GBP will do worse than USD and gold. In the GFC I did well by being in cash but was too heavily in GBP. It's a problem that everyone is facing right now. There are huge amounts of greed in just about every market. People are loading up on anything they can, particularly tech stock as they see real risks of ongoing currency debasement. The stock bubble just isn't popping as a result. The biggest issue I see is the fiscally generated inflation that simply isn't going to disappear. The government needs cutting as does the wider civil service and councils, and the central banks really need to be pushing up base rates much higher as their 5 to 5.5% has not and will not have much effect. With high government debt, we are unlikely to see those higher rates. If you're holding GBP, I would think again. USD and Euro isn't the solution either. Usually people would be loading up with gold and even silver in these times, however the market is completely rigged and these will continue to be smacked down. So it looks like the stock markets will continue to soar. Where will the S&P500 be in a year's time? 10000 isn't off the table. Gold will probably continue to range $1800 - $2400 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Honestly, my last reply should have just said to get out of the UK, US, EU, Canada, Oz and New Zealand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandalorian Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 35 minutes ago, sell2rent said: I am trying to think the safest way to protect against an increasingly likely crash. Even if it starts in tech stocks or something unexpected, it will likely contaminate the rest and GBP. I think GBP will do worse than USD and gold. In the GFC I did well by being in cash but was too heavily in GBP. What you see as a crash. Is it actually a crash? I don't see the price of, say US shares, as spiking upwards. I see paper currencies as being devalued. The stock market isn't booming. The pound (and dollar) is crashing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sell2rent Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 17 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: It's a problem that everyone is facing right now. There are huge amounts of greed in just about every market. People are loading up on anything they can, particularly tech stock as they see real risks of ongoing currency debasement. The stock bubble just isn't popping as a result. The biggest issue I see is the fiscally generated inflation that simply isn't going to disappear. The government needs cutting as does the wider civil service and councils, and the central banks really need to be pushing up base rates much higher as their 5 to 5.5% has not and will not have much effect. With high government debt, we are unlikely to see those higher rates. If you're holding GBP, I would think again. USD and Euro isn't the solution either. Usually people would be loading up with gold and even silver in these times, however the market is completely rigged and these will continue to be smacked down. So it looks like the stock markets will continue to soar. Where will the S&P500 be in a year's time? 10000 isn't off the table. Gold will probably continue to range $1800 - $2400 or so. Thanks. I was holding GBP ready to buy a house, but am now looking at diversifying as unlikely to purchase soon as it is £4k a month cheaper renting. I don’t want to invest in tech stocks as I have majority shareholdings in two small tech companies. So am overweight tech, GBP and have been buying gold and a bit of silver. Want to rebalance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sell2rent Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 20 minutes ago, Mandalorian said: What you see as a crash. Is it actually a crash? I don't see the price of, say US shares, as spiking upwards. I see paper currencies as being devalued. The stock market isn't booming. The pound (and dollar) is crashing. I see an AI bubble despite reaping the benefits in my own business. I see non tech stocks to be more reasonable value. I could dollar cost average into equal weighted S&P 500 but it is more a lump sum situation because of house sale and good returns on private business that don’t want reinvesting. Buying now feels riskier than any time I remember but so is holding GBP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 2 hours ago, Mandalorian said: The stock market isn't booming. The pound (and dollar) is crashing. Exactly  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 9 hours ago, Mandalorian said: What you see as a crash. Is it actually a crash? I don't see the price of, say US shares, as spiking upwards. I see paper currencies as being devalued. The stock market isn't booming. The pound (and dollar) is crashing.  The NADSAQ hasn't fallen by more than 2% for the last 106 trading sessions. Fifth longest run since the GFC.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Selection of ETFs ranked on the fastest momentum and also 1, 3, 6 ,& 12 month rate of change for reference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sell2rent Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 P/E ratios are high, price to GDP is high, recent growth is euphoric, no landing idea gaining traction, massive government borrowing. Those make me fearful not greedy. Some stocks have not participated but they will probably crash too looking at history? Gold too initially. The run up is more than fiat devaluation I fear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 2 hours ago, sell2rent said: P/E ratios are high, price to GDP is high, recent growth is euphoric, no landing idea gaining traction, massive government borrowing. Those make me fearful not greedy. Some stocks have not participated but they will probably crash too looking at history? Gold too initially. The run up is more than fiat devaluation I fear. Why is anyone bothered about stocks crashing provided they're in the market for several years? The biggest danger I see is holding too much currency that we know is definitely being debased. That currency will never recover unless base rates start moving up into the correct territory which is probably at least 10%. The questions you need to ask yourself are: Are governments about to stop spending and borrowing like drunken sailors any time soon, and do you think rates will get to the correct level given the size of government debts? The BOE knows that 5.25% isn't going to cut the mustard, and they also know that putting rates up to 10% would break the government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 5 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: The BOE knows that 5.25% isn't going to cut the mustard, and they also know that putting rates up to 10% would break the government. Inflation has completely collapsed to nonexistent in the last 6-9 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 4 minutes ago, Stewy said: Inflation has completely collapsed to nonexistent in the last 6-9 months. There's been a lot of sleight of had at play on both sides of the pond, probably in a vain attempt to try and help out the incumbents at election time. Roll on a few months and we'll see how things really look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sell2rent Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 34 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: Why is anyone bothered about stocks crashing provided they're in the market for several years? The biggest danger I see is holding too much currency that we know is definitely being debased. That currency will never recover unless base rates start moving up into the correct territory which is probably at least 10%. The questions you need to ask yourself are: Are governments about to stop spending and borrowing like drunken sailors any time soon, and do you think rates will get to the correct level given the size of government debts? The BOE knows that 5.25% isn't going to cut the mustard, and they also know that putting rates up to 10% would break the government.  It took 15 years for the NASDAQ to regain its losses after the dot com bust. Intelligent commentary takes a variety of positions from ongoing currency debasement and hyperinflation, to inflation is finished and everywhere in between. Assuming it is somewhere in between, I am concerned about currency debasement, but I'm presently more concerned about a stock market bubble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 34 minutes ago, sell2rent said:  It took 15 years for the NASDAQ to regain its losses after the dot com bust. Intelligent commentary takes a variety of positions from ongoing currency debasement and hyperinflation, to inflation is finished and everywhere in between. Assuming it is somewhere in between, I am concerned about currency debasement, but I'm presently more concerned about a stock market bubble. I'd personally not be getting involved with the NASDAQ. I'd say world trackers are a safer bet over a 15 year period. What will £10k cash look like in 15 years time vs world stocks? Of course nobody truly knows hence the need for a bit of diversification. For all we know, silver which appears to be very undervalued at $25 today may be valued at $250 before long, although the most likely outcome imo is a continued smacking of the price right back down to $20 and under if it ever appears to be making it's move upwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sell2rent Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, Dreamcasting said: I'd personally not be getting involved with the NASDAQ. I'd say world trackers are a safer bet over a 15 year period. What will £10k cash look like in 15 years time vs world stocks? Of course nobody truly knows hence the need for a bit of diversification. For all we know, silver which appears to be very undervalued at $25 today may be valued at $250 before long, although the most likely outcome imo is a continued smacking of the price right back down to $20 and under if it ever appears to be making it's move upwards. Against other assets the S&P 500 had a protracted and terrible time after the dot com crash. There are many parallels between that bubble and now, but yeah no one knows. I'm not staying in cash for 15 year indeed, like I'm not staying out of housing for 15 years, I've been in property, sometimes multiple, for 20 out of the last 26 years. I'm more likely to go all in on stocks during a recession. Also aware of the mantra re time in the market over timing, and even going in with a lump sum all at once usually wins over pound or dollar cost averaging, but I see warning signs like these and over confidence, along with previous results from positioning relative to the perceived part of the cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Drip feed everything and hedge your bets......more is made over longer-term than short-term speculation.......repayment of a mortgage is just another savings....Sell if need the money, hold if you don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 7 minutes ago, winkie said: Drip feed everything and hedge your bets......more is made over longer-term than short-term speculation.......repayment of a mortgage is just another savings....Sell if need the money, hold if you don't. Or just load up Premium Bonds and 6% ISA fixes...✓✓ Oh wait you can't any more as interest rates have wilted 🥀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Stewy said: Or just load up Premium Bonds and 6% ISA fixes...✓✓ Oh wait you can't any more as interest rates have wilted 🥀 You do it your way.......£25 a month into one or two things, different markets adds up over time, check for fees.....low cost tax efficient isa trackers as people have mentioned before, not a bad spread of risk....set it up and forget about it.  Not investment advice.....will go up and down, when down get more for your monthly £25.....could lose the lot, if had spent it would have lost it anyway. Edited March 26 by winkie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 42 minutes ago, Stewy said: Or just load up Premium Bonds and 6% ISA fixes...✓✓ Oh wait you can't any more as interest rates have wilted 🥀 Prefer 10-15% in the market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 2 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said: Prefer 10-15% in the market Good luck doing that year on year. What's the tax treatment? 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 minutes ago, Stewy said: Good luck doing that year on year. What's the tax treatment? 🤔 its averaged over years. That is typically the average Depends. some in an ISA wrapper but the excess in a standard account Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wighty Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 7 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said: Selection of ETFs ranked on the fastest momentum and also 1, 3, 6 ,& 12 month rate of change for reference. Where did you get that table from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 24 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said: its averaged over years. That is typically the average Depends. some in an ISA wrapper but the excess in a standard account Yeah it's probably been somewhere around 9 - 12% on average, but as always, past performance is no guarantee of future results. A balanced portfolio is the best approach as nobody knows what the next 10 years will bring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sell2rent Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 My bank will do 5.42% for six months fixed in USD with 0.25% spread, which is looking attractive for funds maturing tomorrow. Leaving some in GBP which I'll sweep towards gold. I can't invest in what I consider bubble stocks with a lump sum and it would take too long to meaningfully drip it in and I already have exposure to tech. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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