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The job market is collapsing before our very eyes!


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HOLA441
38 minutes ago, markyh said:

That is something different.  CB is not CTC or UC.  these have a hard 2 child claim limit for children born after 2017.  You can only claim for more if all your kids were born before 2017. 

Ah, got you.

Universal Credit: support for a maximum of 2 children: information for claimants

Quote

For example, if you’re already claiming Universal Credit, have responsibility for 2 children and you then give birth to a new child, you won’t get an additional amount of Universal Credit for that new child, unless special circumstances apply.

So the limit is to have (present tense) responsibility for 2 children, not have had (past tense) responsibility for 2 children. 

Edited by Will!
answering the question
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HOLA442
4 hours ago, nome said:

You're properly embarrassing yourself now digging yourself deeper into this hole.

I've never understood why people feel the need to go on the Internet and just make stuff up. 

If I made it up prove it. 

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HOLA443
10 minutes ago, Insane said:

If I made it up prove it. 

A perfect example of the failed braincells that you are.

By your logic.  You are a mor*nic muppet that likes to make sh*t up then cries like a spanked ar*se when called out.  If I made it up, prove it ;)

 

 

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HOLA444
8 minutes ago, msi said:

A perfect example of the failed braincells that you are.

By your logic.  You are a mor*nic muppet that likes to make sh*t up then cries like a spanked ar*se when called out.  If I made it up, prove it

You crawled out from under your rock. Had not had a message from you this year which has been a massive bonus pity you could not have kept it that way. 

You often talk about spanking is it a fetish of yours are you top or bottom? 

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HOLA445
2 minutes ago, Insane said:

You crawled out from under your rock. Had not had a message from you this year which has been a massive bonus pity you could not have kept it that way. 

You often talk about spanking is it a fetish of yours are you top or bottom? 

You still have an unhealthy interest in people under the age of consent?

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HOLA446
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HOLA447
48 minutes ago, msi said:

You still have an unhealthy interest in people under the age of consent?

Wow that is below the belt and you know it you are not worth replying to sicko I will not reply again. 

SICK SICK SICK. 

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HOLA448
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HOLA449
4 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

AI Is Starting to Threaten White-Collar Jobs. Few Industries Are Immune.

WSJ

https://archive.is/4W99o#selection-2049.0-2049.72

In my white collar job, so far I have just seen people messing about with chatgpt and talking about it.

 

No serious projects yet.  My prediction is a big recession/ depression might initiate projects to save money.

 

But to be honest a lot of big companies/public sector could save on man power by refining there process.  There is a lot of dead wood.  Funnily enough a lot of it was actually hired in the pandemic.

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HOLA4410
4 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

AI Is Starting to Threaten White-Collar Jobs. Few Industries Are Immune.

WSJ

https://archive.is/4W99o#selection-2049.0-2049.72

In my white collar job, so far I have just seen people messing about with chatgpt and talking about it.

 

No serious projects yet.  My prediction is a big recession/ depression might initiate projects to save money.

 

But to be honest a lot of big companies/public sector could save on man power by refining there process.  There is a lot of dead wood.  Funnily enough a lot of it was actually hired in the pandemic.

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HOLA4411
7 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

AI Is Starting to Threaten White-Collar Jobs. Few Industries Are Immune.

WSJ

https://archive.is/4W99o#selection-2049.0-2049.72

This is 'we want to do layoffs, we've done layoffs...we could either

A) state we over hired and the market has turned sour so we're cutting. 

B) Claim AI that all my CEO friends say is really cool because it wrote them a poem is ready for prime time and thus jobs are under threat.

One is the senior leaderships fault due to incompetence, the other is an unforeseen Deus ex machina.

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HOLA4412
1 minute ago, deerohdeer1 said:

This is 'we want to do layoffs, we've done layoffs...we could either

A) state we over hired and the market has turned sour so we're cutting. 

B) Claim AI that all my CEO friends say is really cool because it wrote them a poem is ready for prime time and thus jobs are under threat.

One is the senior leaderships fault due to incompetence, the other is an unforeseen Deus ex machina.

Stuping HPC buggy rubbish the emoji was meant to say B )

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HOLA4413
3 hours ago, reddog said:

But to be honest a lot of big companies/public sector could save on man power by refining there process.  There is a lot of dead wood.  

I have come across this my entire business life, people in companies hire when they need but never sack as people become part of the woodwork and no one wants the rep of being a bar stewed 

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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415
39 minutes ago, shlomo said:

I have come across this my entire business life, people in companies hire when they need but never sack as people become part of the woodwork and no one wants the rep of being a bar stewed 

You can't win.  My employer only starts looking after waiting for weeks or months to see if they can manage without a leaver.

They rarely can and when they can't is miserable for the team until the new recruit gets up to speed.

After 41 years in financial services my faith that there are Goldilocks firms out there who neither carry people, or run too lean, recruit proactively and are brilliant at resourcing for projects and successor management, is getting sorely tested.

Edited by hotblack42
punctuation
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HOLA4416
1 minute ago, hotblack42 said:

You can't win.  My employer only starts looking after waiting for weeks or months to see if they can manage without a leaver.

They rarely can and when they can't is miserable for the team until the new recruit gets up to speed.

After 41 years in financial services my faith that there are Goldilocks firms out there who neither carry people, or run too lean, recruit proactively and are brilliant at resourcing for projects and successor management, is getting sorely tested.

you still have faith in that? j

 

I have some magic beans for you....  ;)

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HOLA4417
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HOLA4418
9 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

AI Is Starting to Threaten White-Collar Jobs. Few Industries Are Immune.

WSJ

https://archive.is/4W99o#selection-2049.0-2049.72

BS. WSJ is just continuing the AI stawks bubble pump.

The article mentions "4,600 job cuts" attributed to AI, but I imagine if you actually look below the surface there is little connection to actually AI tech, or the job roles were so tenuous that they shouldn't have been hired in the first place.

No business would trust any real responsibility to current-gen AI right now.

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HOLA4419
  • 1 month later...
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HOLA4420

Continues to get worse:

KPMG and REC, UK Report on Jobs - April 2024

https://kpmg.com/uk/en/home/media/press-releases/2024/04/kpmg-and-rec-uk-report-on-jobs-april-2024.html

Quote

 

Key findings

Further decline in recruitment activity signalled

Slower increases in starting pay recorded

Fastest rise in candidate availability for four months

Data collected March 12-22

Summary

The latest KPMG and REC, UK Report on Jobs survey, compiled by S&P Global, continued to signal falling levels of recruitment activity in March. Amid reports of hiring freezes and cost cutting at clients, recruitment consultants signalled another marked decline in permanent placements as well as the steepest contraction in temp billings since July 2020.

Latest data signalled a fifth consecutive monthly decline in the demand for staff, with the rate of contraction only slightly slower than February's 37-month record. With demand falling, and evidence of a greater number of redundancies, overall candidate supply increased at the steepest pace for four months. This weighed on pay growth. Starting salaries rose at their slowest rate for over three years, whilst temporary wage inflation eased to a four-month low.

The report is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 UK recruitment and employment consultancies.

Recruitment activity continues to decline in March

Permanent staff appointments in the UK continued to fall in March, extending the current downturn to a year-and-a-half. An uncertain economic outlook and ongoing recruitment freezes were reported by recruiters as reasons for the latest decline. Budget constraints also reportedly weighed on temp billings during March, which fell to the steepest degree since July 2020.

 

image.png.dd2c27f9951949a275eb6fe9567af5c7.png

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HOLA4421
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HOLA4422
5 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

If you zoom out the labour market is still above averagely tight

This is cherry picking 

How is this cherry picking when I posted the whole report summary??????

What evidence do you have about the labour market still being above averagely tight? Even if true, the trend is clearly down with many more redundancies baked in so it won't be tight for much longer.

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HOLA4423
12 minutes ago, fellow said:

How is this cherry picking when I posted the whole report summary??????

What evidence do you have about the labour market still being above averagely tight? Even if true, the trend is clearly down with many more redundancies baked in so it won't be tight for much longer.

The report is based on a survey sent to 400 recruitment consultancies.  You are overweighting the worth of this one report, whole or otherwise. 

House prices and job numbers do not have physical momentum. Trends are useful for interpreting historical data, but have little to no predictive value. 

As for evidence of tight labour market, holding rates at 5.25% is evidence enough for me. but is the latest ons data. 

I appreciate the statistics skeptism but not clear why you trust a kpmg survey more than ONS

 

image.thumb.png.9abb0227ee49abb6c67ad8de8e3fec01.png

 

 

image.thumb.png.f9b759faca623b155ed10ed495ea64ac.png

image.png

Edited by mynamehere
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HOLA4424
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HOLA4425
28 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

The report is based on a survey sent to 400 recruitment consultancies.  You are overweighting the worth of this one report, whole or otherwise. 

House prices and job numbers do not have physical momentum. Trends are useful for interpreting historical data, but have little to no predictive value. 

As for evidence of tight labour market, holding rates at 5.25% is evidence enough for me. but is the latest ons data. 

I appreciate the statistics skeptism but not clear why you trust a kpmg survey more than ONS

 

image.thumb.png.9abb0227ee49abb6c67ad8de8e3fec01.png

 

 

image.thumb.png.f9b759faca623b155ed10ed495ea64ac.png

image.png

Thanks. Well that shows vacancies are heading downwards fast so it will be interesting to see March's data when that comes in. There's also been a lot of redundancies announced which have yet to complete so I can only imagine this getting worse in the near future.

Edited by fellow
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