Britain’s Housing Crisis - BBC2, 9pm, 17/10

[Tony_Teacake]

1 minute ago, dances with sheeple said:

Yes, and 30 minutes into this BBC2 programme that is what is happening, politicians of all stripes lining up to blame the sheeple for not wanting "concrete in their back yard" and blaming "lack of supply" - looks like they can`t quite bring themselves to admit prices are mainly about the debt just yet, mildly disappointing after a full 30 minutes of HPC Central Broadcasting talk.

Politicians talking about the big builders drip feeding the market with houses to keep there profits higher.

George Osborne announcing his new scheme on steroids, Help To Buy which which immediately has generated 130 billion pounds worth of mortgages. Politicians, bankers and builders all in cahoots together. Scumbags.

[dances with sheeple]

1 minute ago, Tony_Teacake said:

Politicians talking about the big builders drip feeding the market with houses to keep there profits higher.

George Osborne announcing his new scheme on steroids, Help To Buy which which immediately has generated 130 billion pounds worth of mortgages. Politicians, bankers and builders all in cahoots together. Scumbags.

Yep, and none of them will suffer, but I still want this market to crash really hard, maybe that will shake some of the public awake to how they have been exploited? 

[Tony_Teacake]

3 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Yep, I also got caught out trying to time a stock downturn, the US economy for example is still powering on, the buy and hold approach to rake in dividends with some powder kept dry (not most of your powder) for sudden drops seems to have been the best approach recently? I still think the stock market is going to pop very suddenly though and have a big crash to rival some of the biggest of all time, it is just timing it that is the problem. The good news is that you can get 5% in a savings account and half decent rates on money market funds.

I agree the bond crisis will spill over into all markets. Stock market is showing very similar comparisons to what happened just before 1987. 

 

[Nabby81]

22 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

Never watched but I'll catch up later.  I trust you guys to tell the truth so maybe the times are changing.  We need a massive amount of cheap social housing built right now with affordable rents, so that we don't have anyone sleeping on the streets in 2024.

We could do it in the 1950's, but the last 70 years have been an absolute disaster......because of printing fiat to appear wealthy.

How the feck can we 'lose' £100 billion on a failed track and trace app, yet we are not capable of building basic shelter for every citizen?

Shameful and if this situation doesn't get unf4cked very quickly, we will see huge social unrest going into 2024/25 imo.

What I said in another Thread today 

[Tony_Teacake]

Just watching the 2nd episode. They are talking about Brexit now and how most people expected Brexit to bring house prices down but it really didn't. Even a pandemic couldn't do this.

But rampant inflation will.

[zugzwang]

8 minutes ago, Tony_Teacake said:

Just watching the 2nd episode. They are talking about Brexit now and how most people expected Brexit to bring house prices down but it really didn't. Even a pandemic couldn't do this.

But rampant inflation will.

It's not hard to work out why house prices haven't fallen very far post Brexit. It's because Johnson, Sunak and May were borrowing £1 billion/day to hold them up while simultaneously flooding the country with immigrants.

[Notting Hell]

Sob stories galore... I don't have any sympathy for the people who bought leasehold houses. Why didn't they do their own research? Why do people think the government will hold their hand? I see this in every aspect of life:

- 'Our' NHS will look after me, I can blindly trust anything a doctor tells me. If my GP thinks anything is wrong with me, he will tell me

- I can ship my child off to the nearest school. Teachers know best and will make sure my child gets a good education and be put on the correct career path

- Banks have my best interests at heart. I don't need to read any of the payment terms, they've told me I can afford it

- I can trust this solicitor to convey this house for me. He will tell me everything I need to know.

etc. etc.

British people have become a bunch of pathetic patsies. 

 

Seems like they are priming general public for "interest rates go down, house prices go up; therefore when inflation goes up, house prices go down".

This is unavoidable: 5y+ of 5% mortgage rates needs to be priced in. House prices have to come down.

 

And Martin Lewis is a charlatan extreme coupon cutter. For the last 10y+, instead of telling people to "save money for when interest rates inevitably rise so that you can still pay mortgage or rent" he told people to "waste time cutting coupons from the back of magazines to save 10p on a packet of rice". Totally missed the BIG costs in life and instead prattled on about trivial expenses and time wasting on uneconomic activities.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Notting Hell

[Timm]

The crash in 2008 should have been bigger.

The reason it was not, was massive QE money printing.

5 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said:

Just watching the 2nd episode. They are talking about Brexit now and how most people expected Brexit to bring house prices down but it really didn't. Even a pandemic couldn't do this.

But rampant inflation will.

People expected Brexit to bring house prices down.

But then we had massive QE money printing to prevent that.

There should have been a massive coronavirus lockdown crash in 2020.

The reason there was not, was even more supermassive XL QE money printing.

 

Will they do it again? Perhaps not, but they can...

 

[The Angry Capitalist]

27 minutes ago, Timm said:

The crash in 2008 should have been bigger.

The reason it was not, was massive QE money printing.

People expected Brexit to bring house prices down.

But then we had massive QE money printing to prevent that.

There should have been a massive coronavirus lockdown crash in 2020.

The reason there was not, was even more supermassive XL QE money printing.

 

Will they do it again? Perhaps not, but they can...

 

They can't if they want to protect the currency.

Which is more important than any housing market and the only game in town.

We have had steady inflation over the last 15 years during the QE era.

With double digit CPI and still around 7% central banks and governments must get back below 2% and to stay there.

That will take many years to achieve of positive rates.

Many are already really struggling.

QE will not and cannot be tried again in our lifetimes.

If it it ever does all bets are off.

[Orb]

 

@The Angry Capitalist   +1

I too would be deeply alarmed and surprised if they try QE again for these reasons. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Orb

[Housepricecrash91]

It's over for the UK (particularly down south), the government and BOE has mismanaged the country for so long that the only way back is to build millions of good quality affordable homes and keep interest rates as they are now for many years.....

Maybe then we can get back to being a productive country where working people are not spending 50%+ of their heavily taxed income on servicing house debt, paying landlords, and getting milked by leasehold...

 

[A.steve]

1 hour ago, The Angry Capitalist said:

They can't if they want to protect the currency.

Which is more important than any housing market and the only game in town.

🙂 I would be happy if your prediction turns out to be accurate... however, I don't ascribe to your justification for it.

The first stumble is that I don't think you've been sufficiently specific about who "they" are... though you presume they want to "protect the currency"... and, presumably, the same "they" previously wanted QE policies.

The second stumble is about what it means to 'protect the currency'.  Often this phrase is interpreted as meaning the protection of the value of a currency expressed as a rate of exchange for other similar currencies.  The problem here is that if the other similar currencies also adopt similar QE policies... it is unreasonable to assume there will be any effect on the relative value of those currencies.  Of course, "protecting" a currency - if taken literally - does not necessarily mean this.  A currency has two principal purposes... (1) to facilitate economic transactions; (2) as a store of value over time.  I think it easy to imagine circumstances where these two objectives are in conflict.

[zugzwang]

4 minutes ago, A.steve said:

A currency has two principal purposes... (1) to facilitate economic transactions; (2) as a store of value over time.  I think it easy to imagine circumstances where these two objectives are in conflict.

Take the long view.

If the USD is toilet paper then GBP is something you wouldn't wipe the dog's arse with.

[frederico]

So basically we are no further forward and nothing new to see as usual.

[Huggy]

8 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said:

Just watching the 2nd episode. They are talking about Brexit now and how most people expected Brexit to bring house prices down but it really didn't. Even a pandemic couldn't do this.

But rampant inflation will.

Agreed. Their solution to both of these was money printing, which kept the corpse alive for a bit longer. There's only so much you can do for certain conditions before the inevitable.

[cbathpc]

I actually had to switch off. The talking head experts were all making me sick. Martin Lewis talking about the perils of help 2 buy. ****** off mate, he's been defending these programmes for years.

[Sackboii]

3 hours ago, Timm said:

The reason it was not, was massive QE money printing.

Didn’t Mervyn King even admit on this programme that QE was ‘an experiment’, and Government knew this too ? Or did I imagine it ?

To be honest, the show was so good, I think I might watch episode 1 again before I watch episode 2, there are bound to be bits I missed whilst sipping beer..

[winkie]

9 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said:

It's funny how the mainstream media are doing more programmes on the housing crisis. With the rise of the social media landlord jumping on the band wagon during these low rate times as exploded. A lot of them are going to be in for big shocks now these higher rates are here to stay.

With inflation rampant  we are on the cusp of a financial crisis. I can't wait to see house prices crumble. 

Martin Lewis talking on the programme about people making lots of money investing in houses, doesn't mention he has been at it himself.

Osmium estates......does giving something back offset gains?........every person has a story, their integrity and honesty is who they are, how they live their lives, and how others will see and judge them and what they say.....that is if those doing the judging are honest and have integrity themselves.......just saying.

[The Angry Capitalist]

31 minutes ago, A.steve said:

🙂 I would be happy if your prediction turns out to be accurate... however, I don't ascribe to your justification for it.

The first stumble is that I don't think you've been sufficiently specific about who "they" are... though you presume they want to "protect the currency"... and, presumably, the same "they" previously wanted QE policies.

The second stumble is about what it means to 'protect the currency'.  Often this phrase is interpreted as meaning the protection of the value of a currency expressed as a rate of exchange for other similar currencies.  The problem here is that if the other similar currencies also adopt similar QE policies... it is unreasonable to assume there will be any effect on the relative value of those currencies.  Of course, "protecting" a currency - if taken literally - does not necessarily mean this.  A currency has two principal purposes... (1) to facilitate economic transactions; (2) as a store of value over time.  I think it easy to imagine circumstances where these two objectives are in conflict.

"They" are the central banks and governments or more precisely the real movers and shakers behind the scenes who give the orders to the cabinet and BOE policy makers.

Protecting the currency means preventing massive devaluation and potential hyperinflation and destroying the economy.

Therefore, protecting the PURCHASING POWER of the currency and not the meaningless exchange rate.

The more a currency gets devalued via QE the more unproductive the country gets and the more poorer too including the mega wealthy.

If people cannot afford to pay their mortgages or rent or council tax guess what?

They won't.

All hell breaks loose and then its game over for everyone.

We live in a service based economy.

Restaurants, pubs, taxis and consumer goods etc.

If discretionary income gets reduced (and it will via more QE) then people don't eat out and so on.

As we also import a lot of our food that will go up too with any future devaluation of the currency.

We become a third world nation if we continue down the path we have walked down over the last 20 years.

[Tony_Teacake]

4 hours ago, Timm said:

People expected Brexit to bring house prices down.

But then we had massive QE money printing to prevent that.

There should have been a massive coronavirus lockdown crash in 2020.

The reason there was not, was even more supermassive XL QE money printing.

 

Will they do it again? Perhaps not, but they can...

I agree it should have crashed 3 years ago, it was crashing until the money printers went into overdrive.

QE may work again for a short time if interest rates where near zero but the debt bubbles are massive. But this won't help the fight with inflation so the reality is we are going to see a collapse regardless of which path these policy makers take.

[Tony_Teacake]

9 hours ago, zugzwang said:

It's not hard to work out why house prices haven't fallen very far post Brexit. It's because Johnson, Sunak and May were borrowing £1 billion/day to hold them up while simultaneously flooding the country with immigrants.

These cronies have created a massive crisis and have only themselves to the blame. Did you see how much bonuses the directors of the big building firms where payed? Absolutely disgusting and pure greed.

And I agree immigration is a massive problem not just illegal immigration  but also legal. How can they allow this to happen when we have a massive housing problem. This blows my mind.

[Tony_Teacake]

1 hour ago, cbathpc said:

I actually had to switch off. The talking head experts were all making me sick. Martin Lewis talking about the perils of help 2 buy. ****** off mate, he's been defending these programmes for years.

He has definitly played his part in this problem. Many of his commentators over on MSE are delusional.

[Frankie Teardrop]

4 hours ago, Orb said:

 

@The Angry Capitalist   +1

I too would be deeply alarmed and surprised if they try QE again for these reasons. 

They wont. Even the most dovish BoE MPC member admitting QE pumped asset prices too far.


 

[zugzwang]

58 minutes ago, Tony_Teacake said:

These cronies have created a massive crisis and have only themselves to the blame. Did you see how much bonuses the directors of the big building firms where payed? Absolutely disgusting and pure greed.

And I agree immigration is a massive problem not just illegal immigration  but also legal. How can they allow this to happen when we have a massive housing problem. This blows my mind.

An upward bias in house prices can be maintained beyond the constraint of dual income affordability by the simple expedient of dividing existing properties into ever smaller units of occupancy. Obviously, you also need a biddable and ever growing clientele for said accommodation because young Britons are unlikely to take up the invitation to pay rent on a dog kennel, preferring instead to return to the space and comfort of the family home.

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by zugzwang

[TheResponsibleHouseBuyer]

Typical BBC, they release the programme which we have been talking about on this forum since this started.

Always late to the game.

This site doesnt have as much reach as BBC obviously, so i wonder if they have people in their arm not talking about this.