Unmoderated Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Average total pay is slowing but inflation is falling more quicky. Capital Economics expects wage rises to fall slowly from here but be above inflation. Also expects base rate of 5.25% for most of next year. Very poorly worded BBC article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67121459 Proper article: https://www.ft.com/content/01040c9f-95d9-45d0-9904-af9422323014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Another BoE rate rise nailed in now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarkey Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, Frankie Teardrop said: Another BoE rate rise nailed in now. Which would push pay demands even higher surely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 15 minutes ago, Frankie Teardrop said: Another BoE rate rise nailed in now. Can't have workers being better off. Poor stewey..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Some HPC nuggets in that BBC article Real estate companies had the sharpest fall in available jobs compared to other industries, with vacancies plunging by almost 30% compared to the previous three months. Average wage growth for construction workers was the lowest compared to other industries at 5.7% between June and August. Wages are a concern for Alex Patrick-Smith, the executive chairman of Dudley brick-making firm Ketley Brick.He told the BBC that after overcoming soaring energy prices, demand has now fallen by 30%. Meanwhile, Ketley Brick's commitment to paying the living wage, which is set to increase to £11 an hour from next April, has had a knock-on effect for all employees across the company."This has unfortunately arrived at a time where it's been very, very difficult for us because demand has fallen and we've got this cost increase that's put upon us," Mr Patrick-Smith said. If you cant afford to pay your staff £11 an hour your business isn't viable, or you're creaming too much profit off for yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, clarkey said: Which would push pay demands even higher surely If only the BoE hadnt sat on its hands last year spouting guff about inflation being transitory and not getting ahead of it whilst they could. But that would have required competent leadership... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, clarkey said: Which would push pay demands even higher surely Bankrupt businesses don't give pay rises. Job loss on the other..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 -100% pay rises dont count into the wage inflation figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 The BOE are going to have to increase rates as the currency weakens further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Good. Hopefully inflation remains high and wage growth continues. Inflating my mortgage debt away 🍻 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, dugsbody said: Good. Hopefully inflation remains high and wage growth continues. Inflating my mortgage debt away 🍻 Amen brother. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckmojo Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: The BOE are going to have to increase rates as the currency weakens further. This Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fromage Frais Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 39 minutes ago, regprentice said: Some HPC nuggets in that BBC article Real estate companies had the sharpest fall in available jobs compared to other industries, with vacancies plunging by almost 30% compared to the previous three months. Average wage growth for construction workers was the lowest compared to other industries at 5.7% between June and August. Wages are a concern for Alex Patrick-Smith, the executive chairman of Dudley brick-making firm Ketley Brick.He told the BBC that after overcoming soaring energy prices, demand has now fallen by 30%. Meanwhile, Ketley Brick's commitment to paying the living wage, which is set to increase to £11 an hour from next April, has had a knock-on effect for all employees across the company."This has unfortunately arrived at a time where it's been very, very difficult for us because demand has fallen and we've got this cost increase that's put upon us," Mr Patrick-Smith said. If you cant afford to pay your staff £11 an hour your business isn't viable, or you're creaming too much profit off for yourself. Maybe or maybe thats a little harsh. Sometimes you have a business model and to deliver a product the customer wants at a price they want to pay against others doing the same in competition. The best thing would be a vibrant economy and excellent staff in high demand so you can and do pay the higher wages. However in a poor economy in many parts if the government come a dictate that you wage bill is now going to be xx% higher then some if not all are going to go pop. You may well find that once it goes pop in the economy you have less but better paid jobs. Why £11 why not 15 or 20 or 30 if arbitrarily raising wages makes people richer. You also do not mention energy in there if a business cost base was a pie that slice has become massive over the last few years so in reality the creaming is not as high as It once was unfortunately for many businesses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save me from the madness! Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 I got 5.5% this year and a 4% commitment for next year, I don't feel like these average wage rises every come my way... Do they really exist? Is my employer just crap? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Frankie Teardrop said: Another BoE rate rise nailed in now. Not per the article. Wage rises above inflation is nothing new. It's a story because they've been below inflation, which is unusual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Save me from the madness! said: I got 5.5% this year and a 4% commitment for next year, I don't feel like these average wage rises every come my way... Do they really exist? Is my employer just crap? For the most part, no. The figures are skewed with too many factors to take into account. Wage increases are highly inflationary however, so it's a very ineffective tool to help with the cost of living. Maybe over a short term period it helps, but it's completely unsustainable. The best data to keep an eye on over the coming weeks and months is the GBP and bond yields. Oil prices haven't gone out of fashion either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: Wage increases are highly inflationary however, so it's a very ineffective tool to help with the cost of living. Maybe over a short term period it helps, but it's completely unsustainable. I agree. In a global world, you can't just magically make everyone richer by paying everyone in your country more. There will be knock-on effects as everything becomes more expensive and your export prices become less competitive. But for me personally, I'm happy with high inflation and high wage growth, because it erodes my mortgage debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 40 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said: Maybe or maybe thats a little harsh. Sometimes you have a business model and to deliver a product the customer wants at a price they want to pay against others doing the same in competition. There isn't enough information there to form an opinion about how real the living wage increase is as a cost and there is no information about their energy costs. the largest category increase in living wage is the 21-22 year bracket which increased exactly £1 year on year. but lower ages increased as little as 47p an hour. Assuming all of the companies staff are aged 21-22 and work a 40 hour week then the year on year increase would be £133k (£1 x 64 staff x 40 hour week x 52 weeks a year). but in reality its probably a low fraction of that amount which shouldn't trouble a company They have almost £1mn in cash in the bank so that shouldn't be an issue for them - link. One of the biggest problems we currently have as a society is businesses reporting record profits and cost cutting/layoffs in the same press release. We can't continue to allow businesses to whinge about a pound here, and 47 pence there when they continue to make a healthy profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 hours ago, clarkey said: Which would push pay demands even higher surely Nope, it will push down the money supply which will eventually feed through to lower profits and therefore lower wage growth and / or fewer jobs. 1 hour ago, Save me from the madness! said: I got 5.5% this year and a 4% commitment for next year, I don't feel like these average wage rises every come my way... Do they really exist? Is my employer just crap? I think they survey a select group of companies and is probably weighted towards the higher end. I don't know anyone getting 7%+ pay rises (except those on minimum wage who got 10%). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarkey Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Save me from the madness! said: I got 5.5% this year and a 4% commitment for next year, I don't feel like these average wage rises every come my way... Do they really exist? Is my employer just crap? I think that’s pretty good , the most my employer has ever done in 10 years I’ve been with the business has been 5% which was last year, normally it’s 1-2%. I am a high rate tax payer though and on the sort of money that the government considers rich so have to suck it up, the shop floor people get 10% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FANG Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 But is Inflation actually falling or are they fudging the figures. As I do not see any actual evidence of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btl_hater Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 3 hours ago, fellow said: Nope, it will push down the money supply which will eventually feed through to lower profits and therefore lower wage growth and / or fewer jobs. I think they survey a select group of companies and is probably weighted towards the higher end. I don't know anyone getting 7%+ pay rises (except those on minimum wage who got 10%). I think it must be those on minimum wage or similar driving this high average % rise figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 It's all inflationary anyway so IR's will probably hit 10% by 2025. Tbh, the only reason most people need bumper pay increases is because of their debt burden, not because a tin of beans has risen 20p. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarkey Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Social Justice League said: It's all inflationary anyway so IR's will probably hit 10% by 2025. Tbh, the only reason most people need bumper pay increases is because of their debt burden, not because a tin of beans has risen 20p. It’s energy bills for me, mine have doubled, raw energy prices have dropped but bills remain stubbornly high Edited October 17, 2023 by clarkey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 I got £33k pay rise to £163k so don't really care. They practically give food away in supermarkets - it's so cheap. ✓✓ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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