Herd instinct

[70PC]

Websites like Rightmove have brought transparency and I have tracked about 200 properties north of Oxford. In recent weeks very little has sold with very few price reductions. Home sellers go onto the websites and see no one else dropping their prices so they don't. Herd instinct.

People are not buying because they cannot afford the asking prices at current interest rates. Reality.

Once the cracks appear and people start seeing other prices dropping, a big correction could happen relatively quickly. 

[shlomo]

1 minute ago, 70PC said:

Websites like Rightmove have brought transparency and I have tracked about 200 properties north of Oxford. In recent weeks very little has sold with very few price reductions. Home sellers go onto the websites and see no one else dropping their prices so they don't. Herd instinct.

People are not buying because they cannot afford the asking prices at current interest rates. Reality.

Once the cracks appear and people start seeing other prices dropping, a big correction could happen relatively quickly. 

No, the correction will take about 24 months 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, 70PC said:

Websites like Rightmove have brought transparency and I have tracked about 200 properties north of Oxford. In recent weeks very little has sold with very few price reductions. Home sellers go onto the websites and see no one else dropping their prices so they don't. Herd instinct.

People are not buying because they cannot afford the asking prices at current interest rates. Reality.

Once the cracks appear and people start seeing other prices dropping, a big correction could happen relatively quickly. 

UK Property lion tracks rightmove's current asking prices
 

 

[70PC]

24 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

UK Property lion tracks rightmove's current asking prices
 

 

Good one and thanks!

[mynamehere]

3 minutes ago, 70PC said:

Good one and thanks!

Home.co.uk also tracks current asking prices, and you can drill down to postcode level and number of rooms.

You will probably find YoY is not (yet) negative in most postcodes.

Edited November 21, 2022 by mynamehere

[Bear Goggles]

26 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

UK Property lion tracks rightmove's current asking prices
 

 

Nice.

Are those figures mix-adjusted? i.e. do we know if it's more cheaper properties coming on the market causing the average to fall, or an average of all property types falling by that amount?

It's doesn't matter in the longer term either way, but it would be interesting to know which property types are holding up better/ worse right now.

[LetsBuild]

43 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

UK Property lion tracks rightmove's current asking prices
 

 

Fantastic.

The problem with following the herd is, that sooner or later you end up stuck in a queue at the slaughterhouse.

[nero120]

2 minutes ago, LetsBuild said:

Fantastic.

The problem with following the herd is, that sooner or later you end up stuck in a queue at the slaughterhouse.

Yep. You would think that people that have found their way to this website would realise this and also apply the same logic to other relevant topics such as:

• Ukraine
• Climate change
• Covid

But nope. Incredible really.

[mynamehere]

11 minutes ago, nero120 said:

Yep. You would think that people that have found their way to this website would realise this and also apply the same logic to other relevant topics such as:

• Ukraine
• Climate change
• Covid

But nope. Incredible really.

I would disagree herd mentality dictates response to any of these three issues.

Left to their own devices most people are a fat and lazy consumer and green policies rely on tax and incentives to change behaviour.

On Covid, why would vaccine passports and emergency lock down enforcement etc be required, if it is the herd dictating policy?

No idea what your even getting at with Ukraine. The public doesn't vote on Ukraine aid?

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by mynamehere

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Bear Goggles said:

Nice.

Are those figures mix-adjusted? i.e. do we know if it's more cheaper properties coming on the market causing the average to fall, or an average of all property types falling by that amount?

It's doesn't matter in the longer term either way, but it would be interesting to know which property types are holding up better/ worse right now.

It's average/median values are from the raw data. 

The theory being, with such a large sample size that the erroneous listings will average out.

There is no "seasonable adjustment" and everything is used.

It tracked rises on the way up...

[Huggy]

2 hours ago, shlomo said:

No, the correction will take about 24 months 

Hopefully the actual crash happens quite quickly after the correction. 40% in two years seems like a lot, but then we need an additional 50% (of the new value, taking it to about 70% peak to trough). That's ages to wait for a buying opportunity.

[dances with sheeple]

9 hours ago, shlomo said:

No, the correction will take about 24 months 

Why 24 months?

[sta100]

9 hours ago, 70PC said:

Websites like Rightmove have brought transparency and I have tracked about 200 properties north of Oxford. In recent weeks very little has sold with very few price reductions. Home sellers go onto the websites and see no one else dropping their prices so they don't. Herd instinct.

People are not buying because they cannot afford the asking prices at current interest rates. Reality.

Once the cracks appear and people start seeing other prices dropping, a big correction could happen relatively quickly. 

By virtue of the fact that almost everything up until a few months ago was going under offer within a few days we can assume that there's a least a 10% difference between what someone would offer then and what someone would offer now anyway.

[BaldED]

9 hours ago, shlomo said:

No, the correction will take about 24 months 

Please elaborate...

At present it is like the poster said. No one is selling no one is buying. At this rate EAs are going bust by end of 2023.

[mynamehere]

6 minutes ago, BaldED said:

Please elaborate...

At present it is like the poster said. No one is selling no one is buying. At this rate EAs are going bust by end of 2023.

This sounds quite unlikely, Estimates I've read pitched October transactions to be down about 10%. 

What is your estimate?

Edited November 21, 2022 by mynamehere

[sta100]

5 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

This sounds quite unlikely

Those September transactions will be from May and earlier won't they?

Isn't it better to wait till January at least to get a picture of what's going on?

Edited November 21, 2022 by sta100

[Twenty Something]

7 minutes ago, BaldED said:

Please elaborate...

At present it is like the poster said. No one is selling no one is buying. At this rate EAs are going bust by end of 2023.

You're mistaking posts on this forum for factual statements based on something other than the whims and wishes of a group of people who've spent years (decades for some) wishing and praying for the collapse of housing, the economy and in the case of many, society at large. There are plenty of people buying and selling and there will continue to be so in coming years, decades and likely centuries. This number will ebb and flow, and maybe some estate agents will go to the wall, but to make the statement that nobody is buying shows how buried your head is in the sand in my view. 

[mynamehere]

Just now, sta100 said:

Those September transactions will be from May and earlier won't they?

Isn't it better to wait till January at least to get a picture of what's going on?

Just a finger in the air for October based on various scraps of info. 

 It will be much clearer in Jan yes.  Thumbs are a twiddling.

 

[BaldED]

21 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

You're mistaking posts on this forum for factual statements based on something other than the whims and wishes of a group of people who've spent years (decades for some) wishing and praying for the collapse of housing, the economy and in the case of many, society at large. There are plenty of people buying and selling and there will continue to be so in coming years, decades and likely centuries. This number will ebb and flow, and maybe some estate agents will go to the wall, but to make the statement that nobody is buying shows how buried your head is in the sand in my view. 

Show me where people are buying. No thought not that's because they aren't.

 

[shlomo]

51 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Why 24 months?

I think it takes time for new normal's to sink in, after about 18 months people will start to accept this, people will wonder how prices went so crazy, and start predicting a new mentality that prices can go down for a long time, and this will be self fulfilling 

[Twenty Something]

1 hour ago, BaldED said:

Show me where people are buying. No thought not that's because they aren't.

 

That is such a ridiculous post that it almost doesn't warrant a reply. You are genuinely so far down the rabbit hole of this site that you don't believe that there is a single person anywhere in the UK buying a property right now? Take Birmingham as a city that just jumped into my head. A search on Rightmove for Birmingham + 0 miles, and no limit on price or bedrooms gives 3,987 results. If you click the filter to include SSTC and under offer properties that number jumps to 8,383 properties. It can therefore be deduced that right now there are 4,396 properties currently under offer or SSTC in that area alone. 

Doing the same thing for 'London' + 0 miles gives 41,573 and click the filter to include SSTC and under offer brings that number to 63,638, or 22,065 properties currently going through some sort of sales process. Manchester city centre 1,735 up to 2,275 with SSTC and under offer, or 540 properties currently under offer or SSTC. How much more evidence do you need? 

I have a funny feeling that you will come back and try and assert that all of those are going to fall through as no banks are lending or everyone is going to go bankrupt with energy bills. Will you consider that you are completely wrong? Will you consider that you are a victim of confirmation bias whereby you have surrounded yourself with misery and posts here promising the end of civilisation but that there are a large number of people just getting on with life? Genuinely interested to see if you can see the other side of the argument? 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Twenty Something

[hotblack42]

All previous crashes have been 'sticky on the downside' as vendors stubbornly dig in, clinging on to peak valuations and fearing selling in a short lived dip (a rational fear in our absurdly property-centric economy), only to watch in dismay as prices soar again.

I have to say though, wouldn't it be exciting if it was different this time and blind panic selling of property set in?  The world economy would be derailed.  We would get to live through a global financial hurricane the likes of which has never been seen before and may never happen again.

[fuzzy_bear]

1 hour ago, BaldED said:

Show me where people are buying. No thought not that's because they aren't.

 

103,930 transactions were recorded in September in UK 

[Square Mile]

2 hours ago, BaldED said:

Please elaborate...

At present it is like the poster said. No one is selling no one is buying. At this rate EAs are going bust by end of 2023.

24 months is when the majority of (low) fixed mortgage rates will come an end and they are faced with SVR or a 4-6 % new fix. 

[BaldED]

1 hour ago, Twenty Something said:

That is such a ridiculous post that it almost doesn't warrant a reply. You are genuinely so far down the rabbit hole of this site that you don't believe that there is a single person anywhere in the UK buying a property right now? Take Birmingham as a city that just jumped into my head. A search on Rightmove for Birmingham + 0 miles, and no limit on price or bedrooms gives 3,987 results. If you click the filter to include SSTC and under offer properties that number jumps to 8,383 properties. It can therefore be deduced that right now there are 4,396 properties currently under offer or SSTC in that area alone. 

Doing the same thing for 'London' + 0 miles gives 41,573 and click the filter to include SSTC and under offer brings that number to 63,638, or 22,065 properties currently going through some sort of sales process. Manchester city centre 1,735 up to 2,275 with SSTC and under offer, or 540 properties currently under offer or SSTC. How much more evidence do you need? 

I have a funny feeling that you will come back and try and assert that all of those are going to fall through as no banks are lending or everyone is going to go bankrupt with energy bills. Will you consider that you are completely wrong? Will you consider that you are a victim of confirmation bias whereby you have surrounded yourself with misery and posts here promising the end of civilisation but that there are a large number of people just getting on with life? Genuinely interested to see if you can see the other side of the argument? 

Wow touchy touchy.

I'm not anything.  Just stating my opinion. I don't believe there will be financial armagedon and I don't believe that housing and this country is the panecia of limitless wealth either. If you seriously think that the road we are going down is a healthy one you want to question who you are calling a fruit loop.