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House Price Crash Forum


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About fuzzy_bear

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  1. The credit card analogy needs to be put to bed That isn't how the government borrows
  2. Do you consider there might be an element of observation & recall bias in these anecdotes?
  3. Too much anecdote on here - the real figures speak for themselves - £180bn in savings amassed by Brits during the pandemic. Of course there will be winners & losers with those in the hospitality industry worst hit but many are much better off than before the pandemic Household savings on average increased significantly & assets of virtually all classes have rocketed in value from last March. So even if you are of the house price crash mentality, provided your money is invested in virtually anything but cash, the average person is in a better position than last year. htt
  4. Hence the words "may have to rise" As someone who spend much of her working life within the Federal reserve, she might just know a thing or two
  5. Indeed Most economists are projecting a short-term spike in inflation with possible short-term interest rate rises needed In five years time we could well be back to "normal" i.e. low inflation, low interest rates in most developed economies
  6. "forward guidance" Fed have had this approach for years
  7. Equities were oversold yesterday on the back of Yellen's comments. Everyone still trying to factor in possibility/probability of short term rate rises in 2022 (Q4 2021 still seems unlikely). Too many unknown variables but given recovery, 25BP rise probably already priced in. Major US indices will rebound 1-2% today I reckon.
  8. Rarely on this forum, primarily because anecdote is given far too much weight We all need to be mindful of the risk of observation & recall bias. Many people do not grasp these concepts
  9. Do you have any data on that? Q4 2020 transactions across England are among the highest in 15 years https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above Anecdote risks all sorts of bias & yet is so common on this forum
  10. Of all the asset price rises in the last 12 months, house prices have risen only modestly You may think the housing market is in a bubble (most don't) but the question is why would it crash? Money is cheap. People aren't speculating on house prices (too much hassle when you can just buy equities or cryptocurrency on your smartphone) Without significant interest rate rises what will be the downward pressure on house prices? People are returning to work. Vaccine roll out has been phenomenal. Economic outlook is bright
  11. The real problem here is failing to have an alternative investment strategy to pay off the mortgage at the end of its term. What proportion of average people really understood that & had a robust investment plan in place? That's where the potential mis-selling comes in. For all those criticising however, it really isn't that different to those sitting on the sidelines waiting for a housing market crash - it's only a valid approach so long as your alternative investments are appreciating at a great rate than the combined house price inflation & monthly rental costs.
  12. So there are less unemployed than they had "hoped"? Certainly the number of unemployed is significantly lower than many had predicted. Yes furlough is still in place but it still costs most businesses to keep people on than to make redundancies. People still in jobs at this stage are very unlikely to lose their jobs at then end of furlough Net effect on housing market likely neutral IMO
  13. It's been clearly shown that stimulus delivered to the better off leads to asset price inflation while strategies like above aimed at the less well off works to drive "true" inflation It's aimed to kickstart the "real" economy
  14. I think there's an issue with the data Those are very prolonged plateaus - suggests low volumes
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