Electric cars will cost more to run than petrol from October

[kzb]

1 hour ago, MarkG said:

I think Tesla have container-sized batteries that power companies can install. I watched a video a while ago of the fire brigade in Australia trying to put one out after it caught fire.

Yes we were discussing these a few weeks back.  Very expensive as a storage medium for longer term storage.  Cost many hundreds of billions to provide the storage we need to get through wind lulls.

[MarkG]

4 hours ago, kzb said:

So if I wanted a 50kWh (as recommended as the minimum capacity) it would be $45,000 installed ?

Potentially, yes. The downside of using the all-in-one systems is that they typically include invertors and power outlets to make them simple to use and can't just be hooked into the wiring in the house. The 5kWh one I have has half a dozen power outlets so it's a matter of running extension cables down to the basement if there's a power outage.

But if you hired an electrician who knows what they're doing to keep it safe and legal and bought 50kWh of batteries and some big inverters yourself they could probably put the whole thing together for less than that and wire it into the house. A single 5kWh 48V LiFePO4 battery from a reputable brand is about $1600 in the US.

But, as you say, that would probably be at least 1600 pounds + VAT by the time it got to the UK.

[14stFlyer]

10 hours ago, nightowl said:

Maybe a battery pack at home isn't the safest afterall but then few people store petrol under the stairs either for the same reason. Maybe have a large neighbourhood pack which supplies multiple house but still away from them. Maybe at the substation or something.

👍.  The risks of lithium battery fires are dropping as we learn more, but ultimately if you want to have very high density energy storage (such as in petrol, diesel, hydrogen or lithium batteries) then there will always be some risk of rapid energy release. 

[nightowl]

As general observation the future of how energy is obtained stored and distributed has many pathways open to us but it's not clear even now what is the medium and longer term solution. Batteries are getting all the interest right but could end up the energy version of betamax. 

Even smart meters (some maybe all) designed over a decade ago, have the idea of where energy usage is logged by the hour of the day slot for slightly different reasons to do with limited power station capacity at peak. But smart meters werent supplier intercompatible so the whole thinking really wasn't joined up - in part because no one knows where it will all go.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

4 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

👍.  The risks of lithium battery fires are dropping as we learn more, but ultimately if you want to have very high density energy storage (such as in petrol, diesel, hydrogen or lithium batteries) then there will always be some risk of rapid energy release. 

 

Yes, I was involved in some early Li Ion testing for military kit back in the early/mid 1990s as a student engineer. We were constantly told to be careful and told about an Israeli Soldier whose backback radio (using a new Lithium technology) had exploded/combusted.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[kzb]

9 hours ago, MarkG said:

Potentially, yes. The downside of using the all-in-one systems is that they typically include invertors and power outlets to make them simple to use and can't just be hooked into the wiring in the house. The 5kWh one I have has half a dozen power outlets so it's a matter of running extension cables down to the basement if there's a power outage.

But if you hired an electrician who knows what they're doing to keep it safe and legal and bought 50kWh of batteries and some big inverters yourself they could probably put the whole thing together for less than that and wire it into the house. A single 5kWh 48V LiFePO4 battery from a reputable brand is about $1600 in the US.

But, as you say, that would probably be at least 1600 pounds + VAT by the time it got to the UK.

Well that has put my mind at rest I must say.

The 50kWh of batteries will retail for "only" £19,200 inc. VAT.  Then I have to arrange something a bit dodgy with a willing electrician to install the whole system and hope that it does not invalidate my house insurance.  There is also the question about selling my house or what happens when my offspring inherits and need to sell it.

I guess I wouldn't see much change from £25k including all the other equipment and the electrician's time.

So that is nice to know.  It's not £50k it's only £25k.

In total then, I need £25k for the battery system, plus solar panels, plus say £30k on super insulation, remodel the garden to make an EV charging area, and install a heat pump system to replace the gas central heating.

But wait, don't worry, all these things will reduce in price by 90% by 2030, so it's all OK.

 

[kzb]

18 hours ago, FTB-house-hunter said:

Go have a look at the agile tariff on octopus.... that is exactly how it works!

I bet they are losing money on it though, it's not sustainable long term, and therefore it will not be how it works ?

[Confusion of VIs]

15 hours ago, MarkG said:

Raw LiFePO4 batteries are around $0.30 per Wh, or $300 per kWh. In an all-in-one box with solar charger, A/C charger and inverter that rises to about $0.90 per Wh.

I don't see that dropping to $0.08 any time soon, but maybe sodium batteries can hit that price range. There's an awful lot more sodium around, but apparently they're even heavier than lithium and transport costs alone may be more than $80 per kWh. I got free shipping from Amazon in the US, so God knows how much it really cost to send multiple 50lb batteries here.

 

14 hours ago, kzb said:

So if I wanted a 50kWh (as recommended as the minimum capacity) it would be $45,000 installed ?  Also it is very important to find out what is it in pounds, because things like this are often more expensive here compared to USA.  Looking at a website the other week I thought it would cost about £50,000 here (i.e £1,000 per kWh).

On the sodium batteries, not so sure.  It depends what proportion of the retail price of a lithium battery is actually due to the lithium price, and my guess is a small proportion.  Lithium is only $72 per kg, and only a few per cent of the battery weight is lithium.  Then you will need more battery, because the sodium battery energy density is not as good, so that will act to increase the price for 50kWh.  So my guess is the saving will be marginal and certainly not a game-changer.

So now we have two of you, with little or no knowledge of what you are talking about, making up numbers and then announcing that these made up numbers are scary (notwithstanding that two minutes of Googling would show that they are absolute nonsense).

E.g. 

• I have just installed 13.5kwh of Growatt LFP batteries for £7,000. So today you could buy 50kwh for at most £21,000. 
• Tesla have just released a new Model Y in Europe that costs 41,000 Euro (before car tax) that has a 55kwh battery in it.

The forecast that the price of batteries would reduce to $80 per kwh by 2030, was made a year ago and is (like almost every other renewables cost forecast) made over the past 20 years is already proving to be unduly pessimistic. In fact it is thought that the cost of latest LFP batteries used by Tesla and BYD are already below $80 per kwh. 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

6 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:

👍.  The risks of lithium battery fires are dropping as we learn more, but ultimately if you want to have very high density energy storage (such as in petrol, diesel, hydrogen or lithium batteries) then there will always be some risk of rapid energy release. 

The risk of LFP batteries catching fire is almost zero, they will burn if actually inside a serious fire but that's about it. 

3 hours ago, nightowl said:

As general observation the future of how energy is obtained stored and distributed has many pathways open to us but it's not clear even now what is the medium and longer term solution. Batteries are getting all the interest right but could end up the energy version of betamax. 

Even smart meters (some maybe all) designed over a decade ago, have the idea of where energy usage is logged by the hour of the day slot for slightly different reasons to do with limited power station capacity at peak. But smart meters werent supplier intercompatible so the whole thinking really wasn't joined up - in part because no one knows where it will all go.

This is likely to be the future.

Tesla: First Trial of Virtual Power Plant Succeeds (investopedia.com)

Tesla have already applied for a licence to be a UK power supplier and if trials in US, Australia and Japan succeed will be launching a VPP in the UK.

 

[nero120]

43 minutes ago, kzb said:

Well that has put my mind at rest I must say.

The 50kWh of batteries will retail for "only" £19,200 inc. VAT.  Then I have to arrange something a bit dodgy with a willing electrician to install the whole system and hope that it does not invalidate my house insurance.  There is also the question about selling my house or what happens when my offspring inherits and need to sell it.

I guess I wouldn't see much change from £25k including all the other equipment and the electrician's time.

So that is nice to know.  It's not £50k it's only £25k.

In total then, I need £25k for the battery system, plus solar panels, plus say £30k on super insulation, remodel the garden to make an EV charging area, and install a heat pump system to replace the gas central heating.

But wait, don't worry, all these things will reduce in price by 90% by 2030, so it's all OK.

You forgot the part where if (when) it goes wrong it catches fire engulfing your entire house in minutes and cremating your entire family. It's the future people!

[Confusion of VIs]

45 minutes ago, kzb said:

I bet they are losing money on it though, it's not sustainable long term, and therefore it will not be how it works ?

Again you don't know so instead of finding out feel the need to make something up.

 

 

 

[kzb]

40 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

So now we have two of you, with little or no knowledge of what you are talking about, making up numbers and then announcing that these made up numbers are scary (notwithstanding that two minutes of Googling would show that they are absolute nonsense).

E.g. 

• I have just installed 13.5kwh of Growatt LFP batteries for £7,000. So today you could buy 50kwh for at most £21,000. 
• Tesla have just released a new Model Y in Europe that costs 41,000 Euro (before car tax) that has a 55kwh battery in it.

The forecast that the price of batteries would reduce to $80 per kwh by 2030, was made a year ago and is (like almost every other renewables cost forecast) made over the past 20 years is already proving to be unduly pessimistic. In fact it is thought that the cost of latest LFP batteries used by Tesla and BYD are already below $80 per kwh. 

 

Does the £21k include the ancillary equipment and installation cost?

Anyhow I estimated very roughly £25k and you say £21k, so I'd say not bad as a ball park figure.  Fantastic, in reality it's only £21k, that is a relief.

(BTW a few minutes Googling told me the retail price of home batteries was in the region of £1,000 per kWh.  The majority of sites now no longer post prices, you have to ask for a quote.)

£519 per kWh currently, and that will reduce to $80 (= approx. £68)  per kWh in seven years.  An 87% reduction in seven years.

All I can say is, "we'll see".

Elon Musk can probably claim whatever he likes as the cost of the batteries.  No-one can prove what is his real price.  Although perhaps you could tell us what is the retail price of a replacement Tesla battery?  That is the price of interest.

 

 

 

[Cocha]

22 hours ago, Frugal Git said:

If I’m driving 400-500 miles, I want more than a wazz. Stretch, a burger, a tea etc. I’ll happily stop for 1/2 an hour twice. Which is more than enough time off If it’s charging from 10-75%, which is the quick part of the charge curve. 

And it’s free. 200 miles would be at least £30 in a diesel or any other EV at road trip charging prices, so the whole ‘time is money’ argument doesn’t wash unless you earn £60 p/h net on a Sunday afternoon. If you do, go ahead and buy a £250k McLaren. I’ll still beat you at the lights. A 765lt doesn’t beat a P90D ludicrous up to legal speeds. 

On top, I’ve a lifetime free internet connection and a nice screen where I can watch some crappy YouTube video if there’s a bit of excess time. 

Perhaps so, but if you have to arse around for an hour charging it up, I'll get to the destination quicker.

[Confusion of VIs]

39 minutes ago, kzb said:

Does the £21k include the ancillary equipment and installation cost?

Anyhow I estimated very roughly £25k and you say £21k, so I'd say not bad as a ball park figure.  Fantastic, in reality it's only £21k, that is a relief.

(BTW a few minutes Googling told me the retail price of home batteries was in the region of £1,000 per kWh.  The majority of sites now no longer post prices, you have to ask for a quote.)

£519 per kWh currently, and that will reduce to $80 (= approx. £68)  per kWh in seven years.  An 87% reduction in seven years.

All I can say is, "we'll see".

Elon Musk can probably claim whatever he likes as the cost of the batteries.  No-one can prove what is his real price.  Although perhaps you could tell us what is the retail price of a replacement Tesla battery?  That is the price of interest.

Yes the batteries themselves were £5k NB You were at £50k in the post I replied to.

Quote

Bottom line: the cheapest estimate for an out-of-pocket, uncomplicated battery replacement on the Model S should cost about $12,000-$13,000 for the battery, $100-200 for miscellaneous parts, and $500-600 for labor. This puts the grand total at around $13,000-$14,000 for a full Model S battery replacement.

Model S is 100kw so $120-130 per kwh. 

Given the usual mark up on motor spares the cost to Tesla is must be well under $100 per kwh and that's for a high performance Nickel Cobalt battery not the lower cost LFP cells used in home storage systems. 

Based on that I would say that analysts claims that Tesla's LFP production costs are already under $80 are probably correct.

Looks like $80 by 2030 will prove to be  far too high. No great surprise as apart from Tony Seba, all the other forecasters have an unbroken track record of underestimating the rate of cost reductions.   

 

[kzb]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Again you don't know so instead of finding out feel the need to make something up.

They are selling it at below cost price.  That isn't the model you envisaged, which was it would be dirt cheap off-peak.

[kzb]

2 hours ago, nero120 said:

You forgot the part where if (when) it goes wrong it catches fire engulfing your entire house in minutes and cremating your entire family. It's the future people!

To be fair, the LFP batteries seem to be quite safe.

[kzb]

45 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Yes the batteries themselves were £5k NB You were at £50k in the post I replied to.

https://www.solarguide.co.uk/solar-batteries#/

Look at the prices on there.

The LFP battery prices on there range widely but some of them are over £1,000/kWh.

The prices do not include installation either.

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Model S is 100kw so $120-130 per kwh. 

Given the usual mark up on motor spares the cost to Tesla is must be well under $100 per kwh and that's for a high performance Nickel Cobalt battery not the lower cost LFP cells used in home storage systems. 

Based on that I would say that analysts claims that Tesla's LFP production costs are already under $80 are probably correct.

Looks like $80 by 2030 will prove to be  far too high. No great surprise as apart from Tony Seba, all the other forecasters have an unbroken track record of underestimating the rate of cost reductions.   

Notice the phrase "should be" in that price?  

For the sake of argument ("without prejudice") let's say it is $80 per kWh.  OK so my battery cost for £50kWh is £3,400.  The installation costs certainly will not decrease.

This is still a cost being pushed onto consumers.  28 million households need this installing.  Many of them are already using foodbanks.

If you say I am being unimaginative, you are correct.  I did not envisage that the costs of storage would be met by householders, I imagined, in my dull way, that it would have to be met by "them", i.e the generators and the state.

The costs will be met by ordinary households.  If they suffer blackouts or extreme price spikes that will be their own fault for not buying enough batteries.  How naive I was. 

 

 

[FTB-house-hunter]

3 hours ago, kzb said:

I bet they are losing money on it though, it's not sustainable long term, and therefore it will not be how it works ?

You can suspect what you like.   It doesn't change the fact that it's how it works, at this very moment.  No ifs, no buts.  It is what is happening right now.  The grid will be balanced by electric cars in the end.  Everyone will have a 60KW battery that runs the house and balances the grid.  That is the future for the UK.

[kzb]

1 minute ago, FTB-house-hunter said:

You can suspect what you like.   It doesn't change the fact that it's how it works, at this very moment.  No ifs, no buts.  It is what is happening right now.  The grid will be balanced by electric cars in the end.  Everyone will have a 60KW battery that runs the house and balances the grid.  That is the future for the UK.

I don't know about that.  The Agile tariff customers are being subsidised somehow so it is a gimmick that won't last.

How are those EV's going to get us through a two week low-wind period?

Have a read of this chap:

https://chrisbond.substack.com/p/uk-plc-power-decarbonisation

[Saving For a Space Ship]

On 27/08/2022 at 11:01, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/electric-cars-will-expensive-run-petrol/

The owner of a Jaguars i-PACE, an electric SUV, would spend £99 more to travel the same distance as a driver in the petrol equivalent, the Jaguar f-PACE, according to calculations by breakdown service, the RAC.

Just a thought, and call me cynical, but are not the RAC mainly owned by a massive Private equity co ? CVC Capital Partners https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CVC_Capital_Partners

The Rac makes much of its profits by vehicle breakdowns. The major increase in relaibility of  EV's compared ICE cars, would greatly reduce the profits of the RAC in this area, so they or their owners, may not wish to encourage EV's ?  

Edited August 29, 2022 by Saving For a Space Ship

[GenZ]

• It's free to charge at Tesco's
• It's free to charge up at work
• Some public chargers are free
• It's free to park for 2 hours in central Manchester if charging - prime spots  too
• Car tax is free 
• exempt from London congestion charge 
• exempt from the up coming Manchester clean air zone  
• 1% BIK rate ( best of all)

 

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by GenZ

[Frugal Git]

3 hours ago, Cocha said:

Perhaps so, but if you have to arse around for an hour charging it up, I'll get to the destination quicker.

I did say 1/2 an hour, and I don’t care whether you get to the destination quicker or not. Those 500 - 1000 mile trips are almost always for leisure, and I’ll make stops for scenery etc because the journey is part of the fun. 

On shorter trips - 100 miles or so, the likelihood is still you won’t, because people in a rush never do.

This is easily observed when some tw@t surges past me doing 85mph on the M11 around Stansted while I’m listening to some podcast at 60 mph, and by the time I get to the north circular I’m right behind them again because the bottleneck to get to the actual end point is always the urban traffic. 

[Frugal Git]

23 minutes ago, GenZ said:

• It's free to charge at Tesco's
• It's free to charge up at work
• Some public chargers are free
• It's free to park for 2 hours in central Manchester if charging - prime spots  too
• Car tax is free 
• exempt from London congestion charge 
• exempt from the up coming Manchester clean air zone  
• 1% BIK rate ( best of all)

 

 

The current perks are insane indeed. It’s also heavily reduced parking in Westminster. You just pay for 10 mins to get 4 hours with an EV. So I park in Belgravia, and wander about.

We don’t have free workplace charging, but free supercharging makes up for that. 

[Cocha]

1 minute ago, Frugal Git said:

I did say 1/2 an hour, and I don’t care whether you get to the destination quicker or not. Those 500 - 1000 mile trips are almost always for leisure, and I’ll make stops for scenery etc because the journey is part of the fun. 

On shorter trips - 100 miles or so, the likelihood is still you won’t, because people in a rush never do.

This is easily observed when some tw@t surges past me doing 85mph on the M11 around Stansted while I’m listening to some podcast at 60 mph, and by the time I get to the north circular I’m right behind them again because the bottleneck to get to the actual end point is always the urban traffic. 

I didn't say I would on shorter trips and you said you would stop for half an hour twice, which I make an hour. I've never considered service stations particularly scenic, but to each their own.

[Frugal Git]

6 minutes ago, Cocha said:

I didn't say I would on shorter trips and you said you would stop for half an hour twice, which I make an hour. I've never considered service stations particularly scenic, but to each their own.

Fair enough - an hour total on a 500 mile journey indeed. But like I said, I would have done similar in an ICE, maybe 20 mins per stop instead of 30.

What I meant by not caring about the time to get there on leisure travel is that invariably I’ll stop even more often than the services, to take photos etc if I’m going on an interesting route. On a recent trips to wales/Scotland I spent more time stopping to take photos than I did charging. But that is indeed just me. 

And some service stations aren’t so bad. Tebay is definitely scenic!

Edited August 29, 2022 by Frugal Git