Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[Freki]

16 minutes ago, FOConnor said:

It's not pretending.

If the "international community" objects it is free to try and force Russia to think otherwise but it didn't make much difference in Iraq or Palestine, for example.

Hey the only support Russia gained so far about the annexations are: North Korea and Syria. It has been ridiculed once again. 

[FOConnor]

8 minutes ago, Freki said:

Hey go back to the drawing board, Russia invaded Ukraine without any provocation. Russia has been at war in Chechenya, Syria, Georgia, Armenia in the last 2 decades. Who is thirsty for war? 

 

Your ignorance does not equate to a lack of provocation.

 

Two decades -  you mean from 2002 onwards?

 

In comparison to those relatively smaller interventions on Russia's borders (apart from Syria), America's official interventions during that period include:-

AFGHANISTAN 2001-2021 (therefore including 2002 onwards) Troops, bombing, missiles    Massive U.S. mobilization to overthrow Taliban, hunt Al Qaeda fighters, install Karzai regime, and battle Taliban insurgency. More than 30,000 U.S. troops and numerous private security contractors carry out occupation.

YEMEN    2002    Missiles    Predator drone missile attack on Al Qaeda, including a US citizen.

PHILIPPINES    2002-?    Troops, naval    Training mission for Philippine military fighting Abu Sayyaf rebels evolves into combat missions in Sulu Archipelago, west of Mindanao.

COLOMBIA    2003-?    Troops    US special forces sent to rebel zone to back up Colombian military protecting oil pipeline.

IRAQ    2003-11    Troops, naval, bombing, missiles    Saddam regime toppled in Baghdad. More than 250,000 U.S. personnel participate in invasion. US and UK forces occupy country and battle Sunni and Shi’ite insurgencies. More than 160,000 troops and numerous private contractors carry out occupation and build large permanent bases.

LIBERIA    2003    Troops    Brief involvement in peacekeeping force as rebels drove out leader.

HAITI    2004-05    Troops, naval      Marines & Army land after right-wing rebels oust elected President Aristide, who was advised to leave by Washington.

PAKISTAN    2005-?    Missiles, bombing, covert operation    CIA missile and air strikes and Special Forces raids on alleged Al Qaeda and Taliban refuge villages kill multiple civilians. Drone attacks also on Pakistani Mehsud network.

SOMALIA    2006-?    Missiles, naval, troops, command operation    Special Forces advise Ethiopian invasion that topples Islamist government; AC-130 strikes, Cruise missile attacks and helicopter raids against Islamist rebels; naval blockade against “pirates” and insurgents.

SYRIA    2008    Troops    Special Forces in helicopter raid 5 miles from Iraq kill 8 Syrian civilians

YEMEN    2009-?    Missiles, command operation    Cruise missile attack on Al Qaeda kills 49 civilians; Backing Saudi-Yemeni military assaults on rebels

LIBYA    2011-?    Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation    NATO coordinates air strikes and missile attacks against Qaddafi government during uprising by rebel army. Periodic Special Forces raids against Islamist insurgents.

IRAQ    2014-?    Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation    
Air strikes and Special Forces intervene against Islamic State insurgents; training Iraqi and Kurdish troops. Attacks on pro-Iran militias & Iranian general.

SYRIA    2014-?    Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation    
Air strikes and Special Forces intervene against Islamic State insurgents; training other Syrian insurgents; bombing alleged Syrian government chemical arms sites, bombing pro-Iran militia.

NIGER    2017    Troops    
Special Forces combat against Islamist insurgents.

SAUDI ARABIA
2019-20    Troops    
Mobilization against Iran in Saudi Arabia & UAE after drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure & Gulf tankers.

 

And now, of course, Ukraine.

 

Thanks for illustrating my point.

Edited October 4, 2022 by FOConnor

[Freki]

3 minutes ago, FOConnor said:

 

Your ignorance does not equate to a lack of provocation.

 

Two decades -  you mean from 2002 onwards?

 

In comparison to those relatively smaller interventions on Russia's borders (apart from Syria), America's official interventions during that period include:-

 

YEMEN    2002    Missiles    Predator drone missile attack on Al Qaeda, including a US citizen.

PHILIPPINES    2002-?    Troops, naval    Training mission for Philippine military fighting Abu Sayyaf rebels evolves into combat missions in Sulu Archipelago, west of Mindanao.

COLOMBIA    2003-?    Troops    US special forces sent to rebel zone to back up Colombian military protecting oil pipeline.

IRAQ    2003-11    Troops, naval, bombing, missiles    Saddam regime toppled in Baghdad. More than 250,000 U.S. personnel participate in invasion. US and UK forces occupy country and battle Sunni and Shi’ite insurgencies. More than 160,000 troops and numerous private contractors carry out occupation and build large permanent bases.

LIBERIA    2003    Troops    Brief involvement in peacekeeping force as rebels drove out leader.

HAITI    2004-05    Troops, naval      Marines & Army land after right-wing rebels oust elected President Aristide, who was advised to leave by Washington.

PAKISTAN    2005-?    Missiles, bombing, covert operation    CIA missile and air strikes and Special Forces raids on alleged Al Qaeda and Taliban refuge villages kill multiple civilians. Drone attacks also on Pakistani Mehsud network.

SOMALIA    2006-?    Missiles, naval, troops, command operation    Special Forces advise Ethiopian invasion that topples Islamist government; AC-130 strikes, Cruise missile attacks and helicopter raids against Islamist rebels; naval blockade against “pirates” and insurgents.

SYRIA    2008    Troops    Special Forces in helicopter raid 5 miles from Iraq kill 8 Syrian civilians

YEMEN    2009-?    Missiles, command operation    Cruise missile attack on Al Qaeda kills 49 civilians; Backing Saudi-Yemeni military assaults on rebels

LIBYA    2011-?    Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation    NATO coordinates air strikes and missile attacks against Qaddafi government during uprising by rebel army. Periodic Special Forces raids against Islamist insurgents.

IRAQ    2014-?    Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation    
Air strikes and Special Forces intervene against Islamic State insurgents; training Iraqi and Kurdish troops. Attacks on pro-Iran militias & Iranian general.

SYRIA    2014-?    Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation    
Air strikes and Special Forces intervene against Islamic State insurgents; training other Syrian insurgents; bombing alleged Syrian government chemical arms sites, bombing pro-Iran militia.

NIGER    2017    Troops    
Special Forces combat against Islamist insurgents.

SAUDI ARABIA
2019-20    Troops    
Mobilization against Iran in Saudi Arabia & UAE after drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure & Gulf tankers.

 

And now, of course, Ukraine.

 

Thanks for illustrating my point.

A puny country like Russia has to box in its own category, for an economic dwarf I think they have been boxing above their weight to distabilize countries at its border.

I like how you make a big salad of disinformation, very tasty. Put everything together. Filter for boots on the ground and the list shrinks

[FOConnor]

2 minutes ago, Freki said:

A puny country like Russia has to box in its own category, for an economic dwarf I think they have been boxing above their weight to distabilize countries at its border.

I like how you make a big salad of disinformation, very tasty. Put everything together. Filter for boots on the ground and the list shrinks

So what?

Even if it shrank to just the first item on the list - that's a two decade long occupation with a trillion dollars spent on men and materiel.

All of the four campaigns you mentioned added together don't come to a fraction of that. You want to compare Russia in Armenia to America in Afghanistan? ROFL.

 

As for "puny" Russia is literally the largest country in the world.

 

Perfectly illustrates my point about brainwashing.

[pig]

14 minutes ago, FOConnor said:

 

Your ignorance does not equate to a lack of provocation.

 

Two decades -  you mean from 2002 onwards?

 

In comparison to those relatively smaller interventions on Russia's borders (apart from Syria), America's official interventions during that period include:-

AFGHANISTAN 2001-2021 (therefore including 2002 onwards) Troops, bombing, missiles    Massive U.S. mobilization to overthrow Taliban, hunt Al Qaeda fighters, install Karzai regime, and battle Taliban insurgency. More than 30,000 U.S. troops and numerous private security contractors carry out occupation.

YEMEN    2002    Missiles    Predator drone missile attack on Al Qaeda, including a US citizen.

PHILIPPINES    2002-?    Troops, naval    Training mission for Philippine military fighting Abu Sayyaf rebels evolves into combat missions in Sulu Archipelago, west of Mindanao.

COLOMBIA    2003-?    Troops    US special forces sent to rebel zone to back up Colombian military protecting oil pipeline.

IRAQ    2003-11    Troops, naval, bombing, missiles    Saddam regime toppled in Baghdad. More than 250,000 U.S. personnel participate in invasion. US and UK forces occupy country and battle Sunni and Shi’ite insurgencies. More than 160,000 troops and numerous private contractors carry out occupation and build large permanent bases.

LIBERIA    2003    Troops    Brief involvement in peacekeeping force as rebels drove out leader.

HAITI    2004-05    Troops, naval      Marines & Army land after right-wing rebels oust elected President Aristide, who was advised to leave by Washington.

PAKISTAN    2005-?    Missiles, bombing, covert operation    CIA missile and air strikes and Special Forces raids on alleged Al Qaeda and Taliban refuge villages kill multiple civilians. Drone attacks also on Pakistani Mehsud network.

SOMALIA    2006-?    Missiles, naval, troops, command operation    Special Forces advise Ethiopian invasion that topples Islamist government; AC-130 strikes, Cruise missile attacks and helicopter raids against Islamist rebels; naval blockade against “pirates” and insurgents.

SYRIA    2008    Troops    Special Forces in helicopter raid 5 miles from Iraq kill 8 Syrian civilians

YEMEN    2009-?    Missiles, command operation    Cruise missile attack on Al Qaeda kills 49 civilians; Backing Saudi-Yemeni military assaults on rebels

LIBYA    2011-?    Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation    NATO coordinates air strikes and missile attacks against Qaddafi government during uprising by rebel army. Periodic Special Forces raids against Islamist insurgents.

IRAQ    2014-?    Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation    
Air strikes and Special Forces intervene against Islamic State insurgents; training Iraqi and Kurdish troops. Attacks on pro-Iran militias & Iranian general.

SYRIA    2014-?    Bombing, missiles, troops, command operation    
Air strikes and Special Forces intervene against Islamic State insurgents; training other Syrian insurgents; bombing alleged Syrian government chemical arms sites, bombing pro-Iran militia.

NIGER    2017    Troops    
Special Forces combat against Islamist insurgents.

SAUDI ARABIA
2019-20    Troops    
Mobilization against Iran in Saudi Arabia & UAE after drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure & Gulf tankers.

 

And now, of course, Ukraine.

 

Thanks for illustrating my point.

Wow impressive !

Roughly how many American casualties ?

[Flat Bear]

Well

Haven't really contributed to this thread for a while but it now looks obvious that Ukraine will continue to push Russia out of it's territory. I know it is obvious now but I didn't want to make a statement like that until it was certain.

Only questions are:

How long will it take Ukraine to finish the job completely?

Are there any other possible issues such as Russia doing something really stupid, Nuclear or other such insane action? And if so what would happen? Would Russia survive in any way and how would it then look?

What happens to Russia post war? What are the outlooks in Russia and the future for Ukraine?

[Freki]

7 minutes ago, FOConnor said:

So what?

Even if it shrank to just the first item on the list - that's a two decade long occupation with a trillion dollars spent on men and materiel.

All of the four campaigns you mentioned added together don't come to a fraction of that. You want to compare Russia in Armenia to America in Afghanistan? ROFL.

 

As for "puny" Russia is literally the largest country in the world.

 

Perfectly illustrates my point about brainwashing.

You want to compare Russia in Afghanistan to America in Afghanistan?

Yes Russia is an economic dwarf: ranked 11 in total GDP, ranked 57 in PPP GDP per capita. It is a puny country. You want more stats about how bad Russia is or you want to keep digging?

[Glental]

1 minute ago, Flat Bear said:

Well

Haven't really contributed to this thread for a while but it now looks obvious that Ukraine will continue to push Russia out of it's territory. I know it is obvious now but I didn't want to make a statement like that until it was certain.

Only questions are:

How long will it take Ukraine to finish the job completely?

Are there any other possible issues such as Russia doing something really stupid, Nuclear or other such insane action? And if so what would happen? Would Russia survive in any way and how would it then look?

What happens to Russia post war? What are the outlooks in Russia and the future for Ukraine?

I think it ends with Putin and a Dacha or window. Whoever takes over can blame him and rebuild. 

[Glental]

2 minutes ago, Freki said:

You want to compare Russia in Afghanistan to America in Afghanistan?

Yes Russia is an economic dwarf: ranked 11 in total GDP, ranked 57 in PPP GDP per capita. It is a puny country. You want more stats about how bad Russia is or you want to keep digging?

It’s not worth engaging. There’s no interest in discussing Ukraine or the mistakes made by Russia’s leader.

Apparently US hegemony, British empire, western folly, neocons etc are the key topics of discussion. I suspect many people on HPC aren’t fans of the above but perhaps they should get their own thread. 

[Grayphil]

45 minutes ago, FOConnor said:

 

Even Liz Truss has a more complicated and nuanced understanding that the one presented in your post!

 

Russia absolutely aimed to limit damage to civilian and military resources. Compare any campaign involving the USA. That wil now change however.

 

Russia has plenty of equipment as you will see. They have committed approximely fifteen percent of their forces so far. Should they choose to announce a general mobilisation, they could put millions of men in the field. Stocks of NATO equipment are nearly spent. America has plenty of money to throw but the rest of the NATO allies are at breaking point.

 

If you want to take nukes away from Russia you are talking about WW3 which you and I would not survive. Be careful what you wish for - we are closer to complete annihilation as we have ever been in history.

Yes, I'm sure it's only commited 15% of its of its equipment, is that why they are resorting to the scooby doo vans.

Can you explain why the new conscripts are being told to source their own equipment?

You were the one that suggested the annhailation of Ukrianes military, why should Russia be any different?

As for the nuanced post and my comprehension, I really do not know enough about military strategy at all, but I do have a fairly sound understanding of the conflict and the lead up to this, due to living in the Russian border for over a decade, speaking Russian, having Russian extended family members and a son who could potentially be called up into serving his country when he comes of age (Latvia now has military service thanks to Putin)

 

 

 

[Freki]

11 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Well

Haven't really contributed to this thread for a while but it now looks obvious that Ukraine will continue to push Russia out of it's territory. I know it is obvious now but I didn't want to make a statement like that until it was certain.

Only questions are:

How long will it take Ukraine to finish the job completely?

Are there any other possible issues such as Russia doing something really stupid, Nuclear or other such insane action? And if so what would happen? Would Russia survive in any way and how would it then look?

What happens to Russia post war? What are the outlooks in Russia and the future for Ukraine?

I feel like the answer is: as long as Putin will remain in place. 

The Economist had a good reminder that the fight in Afghanistan significantly helped bring the USSR to its knees. The conscription is a terrible fate, and the population support is significantly weakened. Despite the impressive brainwashing the state propaganda managed to push, having your son, father or brother going to die for an unprovoked war will only make the population to seek changes in leadership. 

The issue for Putin is that it is a life and death situation. He can't retire now. He stole too much, without his political power, he will have the biggest target painted on his back. 

Now that close to 300k inhabitant men, more likely to be well educated and wealthy have fled the country, and the drafting of an extra 1M, a certain economic disaster awaits. Oh and their number one client for their exports are now actively pursuing energetic independence. 

Tough times ahead.]

P.S I hope you are billing the overtimes. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Freki

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, FOConnor said:

Depends on the military presence within the country.

Well talk about advertising NATO right here.

The Baltics love NATO btw..

Loathe VTUP

[Flat Bear]

1 minute ago, Glental said:

I think it ends with Putin and a Dacha or window. Whoever takes over can blame him and rebuild. 

This seems to be the prevailing view that the "Russian people" will get rid of him themselves. But then noone knows what will happen next.

The longer he stays in power the weaker Russia gets so if he does last till the spring where Ukraine only makes slow progress and are unable to clear the Russians tIll the spring 2023 Russia will be in a very weak position. I can not see Russia holding out until the spring, can you?

So there really has to be a coup, doesn't there? and it must happen soon if there is to be anything left for the Russians to build a future out of.

[pig]

3 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Well

Haven't really contributed to this thread for a while but it now looks obvious that Ukraine will continue to push Russia out of it's territory. I know it is obvious now but I didn't want to make a statement like that until it was certain.

Only questions are:

How long will it take Ukraine to finish the job completely?

Are there any other possible issues such as Russia doing something really stupid, Nuclear or other such insane action? And if so what would happen? Would Russia survive in any way and how would it then look?

What happens to Russia post war? What are the outlooks in Russia and the future for Ukraine?

Have to say I don't know much about Ukraines casualties / resource so not sure how far Ukraine can go. But presumably they would stop and then let Russia break whats left of themselves again attacking a defensive position.

I don't think anybody (who isn't Ukrainian!) wants Russia to collapse, too messy. But Putins campaign is way way into wildly foolish and reckless territory so it is a big worry how the endgame plays out.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if there are already secret backchannels into the Kremlin getting a lot of usage atm....

 

[Flat Bear]

1 minute ago, pig said:

Have to say I don't know much about Ukraines casualties / resource so not sure how far Ukraine can go. But presumably they would stop and then let Russia break whats left of themselves again attacking a defensive position.

I don't think anybody (who isn't Ukrainian!) wants Russia to collapse, too messy. But Putins campaign is way way into wildly foolish and reckless territory so it is a big worry how the endgame plays out.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if there are already secret backchannels into the Kremlin getting a lot of usage atm....

 

Much of what we can take from events in many ways is reading between the lines and standing back and looking at the bigger picture.

From what I understand the Ukrainian army and military has actually gained in strength and resources wilst the Russian have weakened and resources have all but run out.

It seems a whole industry has been built up on supplying the Ukrainians and the supply of all types of latest military equipment is on the conveyor belt. 4 more Himars today but nobody bats an eyelide, this would have been a big thing a few months ago. In every single area Ukraine is getting stronger from fresh newly trained recruits to the latest drone technology. There is only one winner here and they are getting stronger and more proffesional by the day.

The Russians know this and they are fully aware they only have one option which is getting clearer daily. You can only be loyal and love your leader so far.

[Glental]

My theory is that Japan will take the Kuril Islands and Putin will be overstretched. They are technically still at war 

[Trampa501]

2 minutes ago, Glental said:

My theory is that Japan will take the Kuril Islands and Putin will be overstretched. They are technically still at war 

Not everyone can see the current day Japan acting in such a way. I can't see it myself.

[Arpeggio]

29 minutes ago, Freki said:

A puny country like Russia has to box in its own category, for an economic dwarf I think they have been boxing above their weight to distabilize countries at its border.

I know. Bit embarrassing for Russia to not be able to destabilize countries away from its border isn't it.

They are such big fat losers!

12 minutes ago, Freki said:

Yes Russia is an economic dwarf: ranked 11 in total GDP, ranked 57 in PPP GDP per capita. It is a puny country. You want more stats about how bad Russia is or you want to keep digging?

Exactly. Losers!

3 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Much of what we can take from events in many ways is reading between the lines and standing back and looking at the bigger picture.

If Russia is defeated and is no more, how does this help the looming fiat currency crisis?

[Si1]

3 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

Not everyone can see the current day Japan acting in such a way. I can't see it myself.

Agreed. Unless by treaty/negotiation.

[Glental]

Probably unlikely. They should just do a referendum 

[pig]

13 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Much of what we can take from events in many ways is reading between the lines and standing back and looking at the bigger picture.

From what I understand the Ukrainian army and military has actually gained in strength and resources wilst the Russian have weakened and resources have all but run out.

It seems a whole industry has been built up on supplying the Ukrainians and the supply of all types of latest military equipment is on the conveyor belt. 4 more Himars today but nobody bats an eyelide, this would have been a big thing a few months ago. In every single area Ukraine is getting stronger from fresh newly trained recruits to the latest drone technology. There is only one winner here and they are getting stronger and more proffesional by the day.

The Russians know this and they are fully aware they only have one option which is getting clearer daily. You can only be loyal and love your leader so far.

What impresses me about the Ukrainians is a sense of strategic intelligence in how they are going about it.

In contrast Russia appears all over the place: weirdest of all is all that lying, corruption and chest-beating  embedded in Putins culture catching up with them in an almost biblical fashion, the shoddy badly maintained ? logistics, the frightened underlings, the ludicrous hubris of Putin allegedly taking command of bits of the war.

Even if Ukraine 'lost' the war tomorrow they have done something quite extraordinary to Russia, exacting a physical and psychological cost that its difficult to see Russia recovering from.

[24gray24]

Isn't russia an aggressive imperialist power traditionally?

They just seem to think they're invincible, when in fact they are quite cannon fodder. 

So it's a shock for them. 

[IMHAL]

3 hours ago, FOConnor said:

Yes I'm having difficulty which is why I asked you to clarify.

Previously you were adamant that it was the Russians.

Previously I explained that there are reasons athat it could be Russia. And sice Russia is the agressor here then they would be my primary suspect unless proven otherwise. I found no reason to that them off my list at that time

3 hours ago, FOConnor said:

Now you say it could be an accident, could be the Russians or could be "the West".

No - there are three or maybe more possibilities. It's speculation. I am erring to hydrate build up. It wahat happens when you keep an open mond and more information presents itself.

Unlike you who will not change depending on new information.

3 hours ago, FOConnor said:

I asked you who you thought would be responsible not a list of potential suspects (since you didnt include a list of suspects in your previous answer as to who was responsible for the original attack - you said that you thought it was the Russians).

Who care what you asked. I gave you my take - that is my take.

3 hours ago, FOConnor said:

 

So, to clarify from the answer you have given, a "double false flag" means that you thought the Russians originall blew up their own pipelines, then went about repairing them, then blew them up again in order to "sow discord in the West".

It's a possibility. If you can prove otherwise then do so.

3 hours ago, FOConnor said:

Have I summarised your thought processes correctly?

You have summarised nothing but your inability to comprehend.

[Quiet Guy]

9 hours ago, Glental said:

Loads of people think the US election was stolen and that the earth is flat 

I presume you're implying that only crazy people think that Russia didn't destroy their own pipelines.

[IMHAL]

3 hours ago, FOConnor said:

Why are you calling him a nutter?

In suggesting it could be the Russians he's saying the same thing as you did in your last post about a "double false flag".

Are you implying that you had taken leave of your senses when you were typing that out?

Not really mate. 

BTW - You claimed the Ukraine was corrupt. How do you rate Russia on the corruption stakes?