8.5%

[Pop321]

34 minutes ago, adarmo said:

A mate of mine is getting these grants. Somehow though the 80% Isn't eigh to keep things going for him despite having no travel..... something doesn't quite stack up. I suspect he's got (used to have) a fair bit of undeclared income. 

Absolutely. For some who earn way over £2.5k or for others who didn’t declare real profits this will have felt very differently to the examples I gave. 

I guess as well the nature of the business, debt and ongoing overheads will differ from business to business. 

My daughter who has a modest £10/12k little business with nil overheads has been fine with 80% allowing for the reduction in costs and time of not actually working. 

[captainb]

28 minutes ago, spyguy said:

That shows fewer mortgages being sold than 2019.

Most of the increase in sales post June are going to be sales pulled forward from 2021.

Wait and see th numbers for the year and next (2021).

 

 

 

So what you actually mean when you say "the banks are not lending": is in a year when the whole market was shut for 3 months they lent less than a year when the market was open for 12. Right then. 

Nov 2020 was the highest month for lending since 2016. Dec 2020 almost as high. 

Evidently the banks are lending... In the biggest picture sense stand back.. Prices have risen 8.5% its not all cash! 

[GeneCernan]

9 hours ago, captainb said:

Nah. The insanity is you can get the self employed grant and still work.... Nice eh?! 

At least they pay a tax premium over those mugs paying PAYE, working and not getting furlough.. Oh wait... 

I'm self-employed and the grant thing to me just smacked of a situation where they just wanted to give people a load of free money. 

I legitimately claimed the first two because I had lost work through COVID, which was effectively all they were asking. But the amount lost was only around 20% of my usual self-employed income as COVID made no difference to my biggest client. 

Same for the second grant but not the third as the rules are different (can't remember how but I know I don't qualify).

Seems to me they could quite easily have put a system in place whereby you say how much you've lost through COVID and claim that, or made some of the money repayable one you had done your accounts for the year and knew exact figures. 

Of course the sums here are insignificant, the billions lost in bounce back loans dwarf a few hundred million paid to the self-employed.

[spyguy]

28 minutes ago, captainb said:

So what you actually mean when you say "the banks are not lending": is in a year when the whole market was shut for 3 months they lent less than a year when the market was open for 12. Right then. 

Nov 2020 was the highest month for lending since 2016. Dec 2020 almost as high. 

Evidently the banks are lending... In the biggest picture sense stand back.. Prices have risen 8.5% its not all cash! 

Coronavirus: Barclays says loans worth £4.8bn may not be repaid

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56108976

Barclays has reported a big drop in annual profits, having set aside billions of pounds for loans expected to turn sour due to the pandemic.

The bank reported a 30% fall in pre-tax profits to £3.1bn for 2020, down from £4.3bn in 2019.

It was forced to set aside £4.8bn to cover loans unlikely to be paid back amid the economic fallout of Covid.

Despite that it announced it would resume dividend payments of 1p per share to shareholders.

 

Question - Do you think Barclays will be doing more and riskier lending?

Or pulling tweakings its loan requirements and pulling in its horns?

 

https://www.moneyexpert.com/news/mortgage-rates-and-fees-rise/#:~:text=Fixed-rate deals with a,£52 to £928.

Average interest rates for fixed mortgage deals across all loan to value (LTV) ratios have risen sharply since July. Fixed-rate deals with a fee were up 0.51%, to an average of 2.80%, and those without a fee climbed 0.46% over four months to hit 2.74%, according to data from Moneyfacts.

The interest hikes have increased the monthly cost of a 25-year £200,000 mortgage with a fee by £52 to £928. The monthly bills on those without a fee have risen by £47 to £922.

 

 

[captainb]

9 minutes ago, GeneCernan said:

I'm self-employed and the grant thing to me just smacked of a situation where they just wanted to give people a load of free money. 

I legitimately claimed the first two because I had lost work through COVID, which was effectively all they were asking. But the amount lost was only around 20% of my usual self-employed income as COVID made no difference to my biggest client. 

Same for the second grant but not the third as the rules are different (can't remember how but I know I don't qualify).

Seems to me they could quite easily have put a system in place whereby you say how much you've lost through COVID and claim that, or made some of the money repayable one you had done your accounts for the year and knew exact figures. 

Of course the sums here are insignificant, the billions lost in bounce back loans dwarf a few hundred million paid to the self-employed.

Agreed its all madness. 

All though I thought bbl was a casual 35 billion, with 5billion to organised crime and a load to people who have no interest in paying it back. Absurd. Etc 

Self employed they keep on touting as the most generous scheme of its kind.. 9 billion? Its still madness 

Now people are demanding those that run personal service companies have their "lost dividends" covered by the taxman. 

If they do that I'll just avoid all taxation as much as possible. Its so insulting to those mugs like myself who paid paye all the way through 

[captainb]

Just now, spyguy said:

Coronavirus: Barclays says loans worth £4.8bn may not be repaid

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56108976

Barclays has reported a big drop in annual profits, having set aside billions of pounds for loans expected to turn sour due to the pandemic.

The bank reported a 30% fall in pre-tax profits to £3.1bn for 2020, down from £4.3bn in 2019.

It was forced to set aside £4.8bn to cover loans unlikely to be paid back amid the economic fallout of Covid.

Despite that it announced it would resume dividend payments of 1p per share to shareholders.

 

Question - Do you think Barclays will be doing more and riskier lending?

Or pulling tweakings its loan requirements and pulling in its horns?

 

https://www.moneyexpert.com/news/mortgage-rates-and-fees-rise/#:~:text=Fixed-rate deals with a,£52 to £928.

Average interest rates for fixed mortgage deals across all loan to value (LTV) ratios have risen sharply since July. Fixed-rate deals with a fee were up 0.51%, to an average of 2.80%, and those without a fee climbed 0.46% over four months to hit 2.74%, according to data from Moneyfacts.

The interest hikes have increased the monthly cost of a 25-year £200,000 mortgage with a fee by £52 to £928. The monthly bills on those without a fee have risen by £47 to £922.

 

 

Question.. What do you think the breakdown of those bad loans is? Given for example residential property has risen 8.5%.... 

And say high street valuations have collapsed. And that's before we get on the unsecured. 

Lending against residential is not high risk. Compared to doing nothing its high risk but compared to just about everything else out there its not. 

 

You keep saying "banks are not lending" but every month you have said that since summer onwards the monthly lending figures have been higher than the last 5 years. 

Now, its banks lose on buisness loans and commercial debts.. So they won't lend on residential in the future? 

[Unmoderated]

5 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Coronavirus: Barclays says loans worth £4.8bn may not be repaid

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56108976

Barclays has reported a big drop in annual profits, having set aside billions of pounds for loans expected to turn sour due to the pandemic.

The bank reported a 30% fall in pre-tax profits to £3.1bn for 2020, down from £4.3bn in 2019.

It was forced to set aside £4.8bn to cover loans unlikely to be paid back amid the economic fallout of Covid.

Despite that it announced it would resume dividend payments of 1p per share to shareholders.

 

Question - Do you think Barclays will be doing more and riskier lending?

Or pulling tweakings its loan requirements and pulling in its horns?

 

https://www.moneyexpert.com/news/mortgage-rates-and-fees-rise/#:~:text=Fixed-rate deals with a,£52 to £928.

Average interest rates for fixed mortgage deals across all loan to value (LTV) ratios have risen sharply since July. Fixed-rate deals with a fee were up 0.51%, to an average of 2.80%, and those without a fee climbed 0.46% over four months to hit 2.74%, according to data from Moneyfacts.

The interest hikes have increased the monthly cost of a 25-year £200,000 mortgage with a fee by £52 to £928. The monthly bills on those without a fee have risen by £47 to £922.

Are you making things up and then trying to shift the argument diagonally to try and prove another point to attempt to prove a different point and then drag that 'win' back to cover the loss on your original assertion?

Banks are lending. LTV and riskier loans were pulled originally to throttle the extraordinary demand for mortgages and remortgages for all those people moving house (I imagine a far amount of resource was diverted to fielding the mortgage repayment holiday requests too. 

Saying "banks aren't lending" and the providing nothing to back it up other than some provisions entered into Barclays financials to make the year look slightly worse (note those provisions and impairments can be reversed next year and in future years to make those years look even better - i.e. in those years where a bonus will be paid, it'll get over paid. this year no bonus so might as well take a bigger hit! - Basic financial messing). 

[PeanutButter]

5 minutes ago, captainb said:

So they won't lend on residential in the future? 

Take 3 dodgy Barclays business cv loans for 50k - 150k deposit on a house, get mortgage from Barclays this year at 5.5x lending  

[Unmoderated]

6 minutes ago, captainb said:

Question.. What do you think the breakdown of those bad loans is? Given for example residential property has risen 8.5%.... 

And say high street valuations have collapsed. And that's before we get on the unsecured. 

Lending against residential is not high risk. Compared to doing nothing its high risk but compared to just about everything else out there its not. 

 

You keep saying "banks are not lending" but every month you have said that since summer onwards the monthly lending figures have been higher than the last 5 years. 

Now, its banks lose on buisness loans and commercial debts.. So they won't lend on residential in the future? 

And they only 'lose' internally. These aren't write offs they are provisions. The year's not been great so what many FDs in that position are doing is taking a longer term view, realising that they can sandbag future year's results by taking an 'estimate' of those imaginary losses now only so they can reverse them in future years and collect on those bonuses. 

[captainb]

Just now, Unmoderated said:

And they only 'lose' internally. These aren't write offs they are provisions. The year's not been great so what many FDs in that position are doing is taking a longer term view, realising that they can sandbag future year's results by taking an 'estimate' of those imaginary losses now only so they can reverse them in future years and collect on those bonuses. 

Totally agree. Even with the crappy audit industry I'd expect to be challanged if I booked billions of provisions against loans secured against asset that had risen 8.5% in value over the year. 

As such I expect they have kitchen sinked huge provisions against anything commercial property related and buisness loans. Easier to argue... 

 

The banks are lending against property. Lending has increased yoy since the market has been open. Its one of the key reasons prices have risen 8.5%. To just repeat "banks are not lending" is totally divorced from reality and all available data. 

[Unmoderated]

4 minutes ago, captainb said:

Totally agree. Even with the crappy audit industry I'd expect to be challanged if I booked billions of provisions against loans secured against asset that had risen 8.5% in value over the year. 

As such I expect they have kitchen sinked huge provisions against anything commercial property related and buisness loans. Easier to argue... 

 

The banks are lending against property. Lending has increased yoy since the market has been open. Its one of the key reasons prices have risen 8.5%. To just repeat "banks are not lending" is totally divorced from reality and all available data. 

You'd probably find that the auditors are more concerned about the understatement of such expenses and actively encourage the kitchen sinking. Let's also remember that many of these guys are looking for a job in banking at some point to get out of (as you say) the crappy audit industry. It's a lot of work and not very well paid unless you make it to partner, certainly the salary doesn't reflect the workload until that level at any rate. 

Agreed the banks are lending. I'm looking now at my remortgage for this year and I think I can borrow 4.5 times my salary at a rate approaching half it's current level. Will probably take out the cash since that gives me a head start on the extension funding too. I'd estimate that for every £1 i spend on this place I'll get £2 back. Changing the subject slightly but I aim to end up in a house paid for with tax free gain on property.... sort of my way of beating the system. I'll probably start a thread on here in the coming months on how to exactly go about this.

[Pop321]

1 hour ago, Unmoderated said:

And they only 'lose' internally. These aren't write offs they are provisions. The year's not been great so what many FDs in that position are doing is taking a longer term view, realising that they can sandbag future year's results by taking an 'estimate' of those imaginary losses now only so they can reverse them in future years and collect on those bonuses. 

I think there is some debate about whether banks are lending across the board. Middle income Britain has had a field day in lots of ways including the fact C19 has been pretty kind to them financially. Banks happy for give them money.  FTB’ers (real ones, not the MPs kids...or even my son who miraculously have 30% deposits) have struggled. Certainly the market around us has struggled with that real FTB market. 

However, whilst we may debate that point I absolutely agree with your interpretation of banks setting aside losses and the reasons why. Hey, why overstate profits in this climate.😉

[TheCountOfNowhere]

7 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

I think there is some debate about whether banks are lending across the board. Middle income Britain has had a field day in lots of ways including the fact C19 has been pretty kind to them financially. Banks happy for give them money.  FTB’ers (real ones, not the MPs kids...or even my son who miraculously have 30% deposits) have struggled. Certainly the market around us has struggled with that real FTB market. 

However, whilst we may debate that point I absolutely agree with your interpretation of banks setting aside losses and the reasons why. Hey, why overstate profits in this climate.😉

I'm not sure I live in the world of middle or high earners.

Pilots...f**ked, no work, no money, wife on furlough, could get worse.

Financial Contractor....f**ked, waiting to be fired along with Job agent wife.  

Management Consultant....f**ked, has taken a low paid job.

London Banker...f**ked...lost his job 12 months ago, £300K pay out, will never work again

Accountant....no money but work okay

The banks can entice people to take on debt but not one of those 5 couples will be moving house anytime in the next few years.

[Si1]

25 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I'm not sure I live in the world of middle or high earners.

Pilots...f**ked, no work, no money, wife on furlough, could get worse.

Financial Contractor....f**ked, waiting to be fired along with Job agent wife.  

Management Consultant....f**ked, has taken a low paid job.

London Banker...f**ked...lost his job 12 months ago, £300K pay out, will never work again

Accountant....no money but work okay

The banks can entice people to take on debt but not one of those 5 couples will be moving house anytime in the next few years.

Apparently pilots make damn good delivery drivers, seen several news stories about airline pilots now working for Asda etc. Even then unlikely to be buying a house soon.

[scottbeard]

17 hours ago, adarmo said:

How are all three exempt from cgt?

They aren’t exempt - i think it’s only tax free to the extent that you only pay tell at the point of sale, not now 

[longgone]

14 hours ago, captainb said:

Nah. The insanity is you can get the self employed grant and still work.... Nice eh?! 

At least they pay a tax premium over those mugs paying PAYE, working and not getting furlough.. Oh wait... 

wow nice 

yet nothing if you saved a lousy 16k 

all in it together 

5 hours ago, Pop321 said:

Fair comment. 

A non repayable furlough grant. Yummy.😉

maybe i should Lie and Apply.  

a new slogan 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Apparently pilots make damn good delivery drivers, seen several news stories about airline pilots now working for Asda etc. Even then unlikely to be buying a house soon.

We had a delivery driver who was a self employed electrician.

Again, unlikely to be bowing a £500,000 slave box to save 3% any time soon

[TheCountOfNowhere]

7 minutes ago, longgone said:

wow nice 

yet nothing if you saved a lousy 16k 

all in it together 

maybe i should Lie and Apply.  

a new slogan 

I blame this lot. ...made it seem acceptible to rip off the tax payers.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/staticarchive/6e77d622ad24d06e18ce97a287aa53a24d704ca2.jpg

 

Maybe that's what the establishment wanted.

Poor get the middle classes money then hand it to the rich.

Trickle up

[longgone]

15 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I blame this lot. ...made it seem acceptible to rip off the tax payers.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/staticarchive/6e77d622ad24d06e18ce97a287aa53a24d704ca2.jpg

 

Maybe that's what the establishment wanted.

Poor get the middle classes money then hand it to the rich.

Trickle up

was that bread 😂 ? remember the greasy twit at the back

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

They aren’t exempt - i think it’s only tax free to the extent that you only pay tell at the point of sale, not now 

You buy 3....you live in one for 2 years....sell it. Move to the next one.  Live in it for 2 years. Sell it...Move to the next one.

You get the idea ?

BTLers and small developers have been doing it for years

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 minutes ago, longgone said:

was that bread 😂 ? remember the greasy twit at the back

Yes.

Would be deemed offensive to Scousers these days so wouldn't be allowed.

 

[GenZ]

Just put an offer in at 10% off asking, if acepted I'm going go ahead.  Buying in Manchester is much cheaper then renting.  I can only lose if i'm forced to sell,  i need somwhere to live and basically money is currently free to borrow at rates @ 1.35% and inflation at 1.6%.  In fact it's cheaper than free. 

 

The only way house prices are coming down is if I\R riase.  I can only see them going Japeneese 

 

[SurreyVisitor]

20 minutes ago, GenZ said:

Just put an offer in at 10% off asking, if acepted I'm going go ahead.  Buying in Manchester is much cheaper then renting.  I can only lose if i'm forced to sell,  i need somwhere to live and basically money is currently free to borrow at rates @ 1.35% and inflation at 1.6%.  In fact it's cheaper than free. 

 

The only way house prices are coming down is if I\R riase.  I can only see them going Japeneese 

 

Spot on, the actual price of the property is irrelevant, it is how cheap you can borrow the money.   A third of people rent now and a large percentage of these are priced out of owning property forever.

We are rapidly heading towards a situation where you either own 2+ properties or none.   For every example of a delivery driver who can never afford a house there is someone who can pretty much buy a second house for cash.

In reducing interest rates the knock on effect is effectively forcing people to spend their savings.   What is the point of having six figures in the bank when the best you can hope for is 0.5%.  Much better to put it towards a BTL which will give you an income for life and will increase in value year on year.

Property is different to Crypto, Shares, Classic Cars etc. as it actually is a basic requirement, everybody needs somewhere to live.  Also with Covid forcing everybody to stay home, having a nice property is a higher priority for most people than ever.

My advice to anyone who can afford to buy but is holding off for the crash is to buy a house, stop worrying about it and get on with life.   

[longgone]

38 minutes ago, GenZ said:

Just put an offer in at 10% off asking, if acepted I'm going go ahead.  Buying in Manchester is much cheaper then renting.  I can only lose if i'm forced to sell,  i need somwhere to live and basically money is currently free to borrow at rates @ 1.35% and inflation at 1.6%.  In fact it's cheaper than free. 

 

The only way house prices are coming down is if I\R riase.  I can only see them going Japeneese 

 

https://psmag.com/economics/inside-japans-disposable-home-market-88133

[longgone]

iF YOU WANT A CHEAP APARTMENT IN TOKYO, HE SUGGESTS, LOOK FOR SUICIDES AMONG THE DEATH NOTICES IN NEWSPAPERS: "IF SOMEONE KILLED THEMSELVES, THAT APARTMENT IS VERY CHEAP."

could be a savvy way to get a discount in London or other major city, presumably a bit of architecture too with exposed beams or balconies to be utilised.